Spatial Growth Rate of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021

This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81x faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76x faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to routine assessments of the growth of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in a defined population.

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Random genetic drift in the population-level dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak results from the randomness of inter-host transmission and the randomness of host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift has been found to be high for SARS-CoV-2 due to superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact the disease epidemiology and evolution. Noise that results from the measurement process, such as biases in data collection across time, geographical areas, etc., can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift as both processes contribute "noise" to the data. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude. Corrections taking into account epidemiological dynamics (susceptible-infected-recovered or susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered models) do not explain the discrepancy. Moreover, the levels of genetic drift that we observe are higher than the estimated levels of superspreading found by modeling studies that incorporate data on actual contact statistics in England. We discuss how even in the absence of superspreading, high levels of genetic drift can be generated via community structure in the host contact network. Our results suggest that further investigations of heterogeneous host contact structure may be important for understanding the high levels of genetic drift observed for SARS-CoV-2 in England.

Severe outcomes in residents of Long Term Care Facilities following infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (VIVALDI study)

BackgroundRecently there has been a rapid, global increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections associated with the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). Although severity of Omicron cases may be reduced, the scale of infection suggests hospital admissions and deaths may be substantial. Definitive conclusions about disease severity require evidence from populations with the greatest risk of severe outcomes, such as residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs). MethodsWe used a cohort study to compare the risk of hospital admission or death in LTCF residents in England who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the period shortly before Omicron emerged (Delta dominant) and the Omicron-dominant period, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine type, and booster vaccination. Variants were confirmed by sequencing or spike-gene status in a subset. ResultsRisk of hospital admission was markedly lower in 1241 residents infected in the Omicron-period (4.01% hospitalised, 95% CI: 2.87-5.59) compared to 398 residents infected in the pre-Omicron period (10.8% hospitalised, 95% CI: 8.13-14.29, adjusted Hazard Ratio 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29-0.87, p=0.014); findings were similar in residents with confirmed variant. No residents with previous infection were hospitalised in either period. Mortality was lower in the Omicron versus the pre-Omicron period, (p<0.0001). ConclusionsRisk of severe outcomes in LTCF residents with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was substantially lower than that seen for previous variants. This suggests the current wave of Omicron infections is unlikely to lead to a major surge in severe disease in LTCF populations with high levels of vaccine coverage and/or natural immunity. Trial Registration NumberISRCTN 14447421

Detecting SARS-CoV-2 variants with SNP genotyping

Tracking genetic variations from positive SARS-CoV-2 samples yields crucial information about the number of variants circulating in an outbreak and the possible lines of transmission but sequencing every positive SARS-CoV-2 sample would be prohibitively costly for population-scale test and trace operations. Genotyping is a rapid, high-throughput and low-cost alternative for screening positive SARS-CoV-2 samples in many settings. We have designed a SNP identification pipeline to identify genetic variation using sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples. Our pipeline identifies a minimal marker panel that can define distinct genotypes. To evaluate the system we developed a genotyping panel to detect variants-identified from SARS-CoV-2 sequences surveyed between March and May 2020- and tested this on 50 stored qRT-PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 clinical samples that had been collected across the South West of the UK in April 2020. The 50 samples split into 15 distinct genotypes and there was a 76% probability that any two randomly chosen samples from our set of 50 would have a distinct genotype. In a high throughput laboratory, qRT-PCR positive samples pooled into 384-well plates could be screened with our marker panel at a cost of < {pound}1.50 per sample. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of a SNP genotyping panel to provide a rapid, cost-effective, and reliable way to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in an outbreak. Our analysis pipeline is publicly available and will allow for marker panels to be updated periodically as viral genotypes arise or disappear from circulation.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages in Teesside, UK, in 2020: effects of social deprivation, weather and lockdown on lineage dynamics

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the UK in January 2020 and the Government introduced national lockdowns and regional tiers to control virus transmission. As the outbreak continued, new variants were detected. We analysed spatio-temporal dynamics of positive tests for COVID-19 on Teesside, UK throughout 2020, in relation to: socio-economic deprivation, weather, and Government interventions. We used a combination of disease mapping and mixed-effect modelling to investigate the dynamics of positive tests from two sampling strategies and the spread of particular variants of the virus as they emerged on Teesside. SARS-CoV-2 spread was related to the extent of social deprivation, lockdown interventions and weather. SARS-CoV-2 spread faster in some lineages than others, with positive tests related to levels of socio-economic deprivation. The interventions appeared to have different effects in the two waves of disease, and were associated with reduced numbers of records in the first wave, but having no effect during the second. ARTICLE SUMMARY LINERegional spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on weather, socio-economic and mandatory lockdowns, but the effectiveness of the latter varies with virus lineage.

Localised community circulation of SARS-CoV-2 viruses with an increased accumulation of single nucleotide polymorphisms that adversely affect the sensitivity of real-time reverse transcription assays targeting Nucleocapsid protein.

Currently the primary method for confirming acute SARS-CoV-2 infection is through the use of molecular assays that target highly conserved regions within the viral genome. Many, if not most of the diagnostic targets currently in use were produced early in the pandemic, using genomes sequenced and shared in early 2020. As viral diversity increases, mutations may arise in diagnostic target sites that have an impact on the performance of diagnostic tests. Here, we report on a local outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 which had gained an additional mutation at position 28890 of the nucleocapsid protein, on a background of pre-existing mutations at positions 28881, 28882, 28883 in one of the main circulating viral lineages in Wales at that time. The impact of this additional mutation had a statistically significant impact on the Ct value reported for the N gene target designed by the Chinese CDC and used in a number of commercial diagnostic products. Further investigation identified that, in viral genomes sequenced from Wales over the summer of 2020, the N gene had a higher rate of mutations in diagnostic target sites than other targets, with 115 issues identified affecting over 10% of all cases sequenced between February and the end of August 2020. In comparison an issue was identified for ORFab, the next most affected target, in less than 1.4% of cases over the same time period. This work emphasises the potential impact that mutations in diagnostic target sites can have on tracking local outbreaks, as well as demonstrating the value of genomics as a routine tool for identifying and explaining potential diagnostic primer issues as part of a laboratory quality management system. This work also indicates that with increasing genomic sequencing data availability, there is a need to re-evaluate the diagnostic targets that are in use for SARS-CoV-2 testing, to better target regions that are now demonstrated to be of lower variability.

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and calibration of an stochastic agent-based model Covasim to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. We used these estimates in Covasim (calibrated between September 01, 2020 and June 20, 2021), in June 2021, to explore whether planned relaxation of restrictions should proceed or be delayed. We found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Here we present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. From 9 to 27 September 2021 (round 14) and 19 October to 5 November 2021 (round 15), all lineages sequenced within REACT-1 were Delta or a Delta sub-lineage with 44 unique lineages identified. The proportion of the original Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was found to be increasing between September and November 2021, which may reflect an increasing number of sub-lineages which have yet to be identified. The proportion of B.1.617.2 was greatest in London, which was further identified as a region with an increased level of genetic diversity. The Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was found to be robustly increasing in proportion, with a reproduction number 15% (8%, 23%) greater than its parent and most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Though no difference in the viral load based on cycle threshold (Ct) values was identified, a lower proportion of those infected with AY.4.2 had symptoms for which testing is usually recommend (loss or change of sense of taste, loss or change of sense of smell, new persistent cough, fever), compared to AY.4 (p = 0.026). The evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2, as measured by the mutation rate, was found to be slowing down during the study period, with AY.4.2 further found to have a reduced mutation rate relative to AY.4. As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals.

Genomics-informed outbreak investigations of SARS-CoV-2 using civet

The scale of data produced during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been unprecedented, with more than 5 million sequences shared publicly at the time of writing. This wealth of sequence data provides important context for interpreting local outbreaks. However, placing sequences of interest into national and international context is difficult given the size of the global dataset. Often outbreak investigations and genomic surveillance efforts require running similar analyses again and again on the latest dataset and producing reports. We developed civet (cluster investigation and virus epidemiology tool) to aid these routine analyses and facilitate virus outbreak investigation and surveillance. Civet can place sequences of interest in the local context of background diversity, resolving the query into different catchments and presenting the phylogenetic results alongside metadata in an interactive, distributable report. Civet can be used on a fine scale for clinical outbreak investigation, for local surveillance and cluster discovery, and to routinely summarise the virus diversity circulating on a national level. Civet reports have helped researchers and public health bodies feedback genomic information in the appropriate context within a timeframe that is useful for public health.

COVID-19 due to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant compared to B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant of SARS-CoV-2: two prospective observational cohort studies

BackgroundThe Delta (B.1.617.2) variant became the predominant UK circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain in May 2021. How Delta infection compares with previous variants is unknown. MethodsThis prospective observational cohort study assessed symptomatic adults participating in the app-based COVID Symptom Study who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from May 26 to July 1, 2021 (Delta overwhelmingly predominant circulating UK variant), compared (1:1, age- and sex-matched) with individuals presenting from December 28, 2020 to May 6, 2021 (Alpha (B.1.1.7) predominant variant). We assessed illness (symptoms, duration, presentation to hospital) during Alpha- and Delta-predominant timeframes; and transmission, reinfection, and vaccine effectiveness during the Delta-predominant period. Findings3,581 individuals (aged 18 to 100 years) from each timeframe were assessed. The seven most frequent symptoms were common to both variants. Within the first 28 days of illness, some symptoms were more common with Delta vs. Alpha infection (including fever, sore throat and headache) and vice versa (dyspnoea). Symptom burden in the first week was higher with Delta vs. Alpha infection; however, the odds of any given symptom lasting [≥]7 days was either lower or unchanged. Illness duration [≥]28 days was lower with Delta vs. Alpha infection, though unchanged in unvaccinated individuals. Hospitalisation for COVID-19 was unchanged. The Delta variant appeared more (1{middle dot}47) transmissible than Alpha. Re-infections were low in all UK regions. Vaccination markedly (69-84%) reduced risk of Delta infection. InterpretationCOVID-19 from Delta or Alpha infections is clinically similar. The Delta variant is more transmissible than Alpha; however, current vaccines show good efficacy against disease. FundingUK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK Research and Innovation London Medical Imaging & Artificial Intelligence Centre for Value Based Healthcare, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Alzheimers Society, and ZOE Limited. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSTo identify existing evidence for differences (including illness, transmissibility, and vaccine effectiveness) from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we searched PubMed for peer-reviewed articles and medRxiv for preprint publications between March 1 and November 18, 2021 using keywords ("SARS-CoV-2" OR "COVID-19") AND ("delta variant" OR "B.1.617.2") AND (symptom* OR transmiss* OR "disease duration" OR "illness duration" OR "symptom* duration"). Searches were not restricted by language. Among 169 identified PubMed articles, we found evidence that Delta variant has increased replication capacity (from 4-fold, up to 21-fold, compared with wild-type) and greater transmissibility (estimated between +20% and +97%), compared with previous strains. Currently available vaccines may have 2- to 5-fold lower neutralizing response to Delta vs. previous variants, depending on vaccine formulation, although their protective effect against severe disease and death appears to remain strong. REACT-1 study found that in UK infections were increasing exponentially in the 5-17-year old children in September 2021, coinciding with the start of the autumn school term in England. This was interpreted as an effect of the relatively low rate of vaccinated individuals in this age group. Other studies found that in unvaccinated individuals, Delta variant may be associated with higher odds of pneumonia, oxygen requirement, emergency care requests, ICU admission, and death. In a study of 27 (mainly young) cases, 22 persons were symptomatic, with fever (41%), cough (33%), headache (26%), and sore throat (26%) the commonest symptoms. We found no studies, beyond case series, investigating symptom and/or illness duration due to Delta variant infection otherwise. Added value of this studyUsing data from one of the largest UK citizen science epidemiological initiatives, we describe and compare illness (symptom duration, burden, profile, risk of long illness, and hospital attendance) in symptomatic community-based adults presenting when either the Alpha or Delta variant was the predominant circulating strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. We assess evidence of transmission, reinfection, and vaccine effectiveness. Our data show that the seven most common symptoms with Delta infection were the same as with Alpha infection. Risks of illness duration [≥]7 days and [≥]28 days, and of requiring hospital care, were not increased. In line with previous research, we found increased transmissibility of Delta vs. previous variants; and no evidence of increased re-infection rates. Our data support high vaccine efficacy of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 formulations against Delta variant infection. Overall, our study adds quantitative information regarding meaningful clinical differences in COVID-19 due to Delta vs. other variants. Implications of all the available evidenceOur observational data confirm that COVID-19 disease in UK in adults is generally comparable to infection with the Alpha variant, including in elderly individuals. Our data contribute to epidemiological surveillance from the wider UK population and may capture information from COVID-19 presentation within the community that might be missed in healthcare-based surveillance. Our data may be useful in informing healthcare service planning, vaccination policies, and measures for social protection.

SARS-CoV-2 testing in the community: Testing positive samples with the TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Panel to find variants in real-time

Genome sequencing is a powerful tool for identifying SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages, however there can be limitations due to sequence drop-out when used to identify specific key mutations. Recently, Thermo Fisher Scientific have developed genotyping assays to help bridge the gap between testing capacity and sequencing capability to generate real-time genotyping results based on specific variants. Over a 6-week period during the months of April and May 2021, we set out to assess the Thermo Fisher TaqMan Mutation Panel Genotyping Assay, initially for three mutations of concern and then an additional two mutations of concern, against SARS-CoV-2 positive clinical samples and the corresponding COG-UK sequencing data. We demonstrate that genotyping is a powerful in-depth technique for identifying specific mutations, an excellent complement to genome sequencing and has real clinical health value potential allowing laboratories to report and action variants of concern much quicker.

Defining the analytical and clinical sensitivity of the ARTIC method for the detection of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 ARTIC amplicon protocol is the most widely used genome sequencing method for SARS-CoV-2, accounting for over 43% of publicly-available genome sequences. The protocol utilises 98 primers to amplify [~]400bp fragments of the SARS-CoV-2 genome covering all 30,000 bases. Understanding the analytical performance metrics of this protocol will improve how the data is used and interpreted. Different concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 control material were used to establish the limit of detection (LoD) of the ARTIC protocol. Results demonstrated the LoD was a minimum of 25-50 virus particles per mL. The sensitivity of ARTIC was comparable to the published sensitivities of commercial diagnostics assays and could therefore be used to confirm diagnostic testing results. A set of over 3,600 clinical samples from three UK regions were then evaluated to compare the protocols performance to clinical diagnostic assays (Roche Lightcycler 480 II, AusDiagnostics, Roche Cobas, Hologic Panther, Corman RdRp, Roche Flow, ABI QuantStudio 5, Seegene Nimbus, Qiagen Rotorgene, Abbott M2000, Thermo TaqPath, Xpert). We developed a Python tool, RonaLDO, to perform this validation (available under the GNU GPL3 open-source licence from https://github.com/quadram-institute-bioscience/ronaldo). Positives detected by diagnostic platforms were generally supported by sequencing data; platforms that used RT-qPCR were the best predictors of whether the sample would subsequently sequence successfully. To maximise success of sample sequencing for phylogenetic analysis, samples with Ct <31 should be chosen. For diagnostic tests that do not provide a quantifiable Ct value, adding a quantification step is recommended. The ARTIC SARS-CoV-2 sequencing protocol is highly sensitive, capable of detecting SARS-CoV-2 in samples with Cts in the high 30s. However, to routinely obtain whole genome coverage, samples with Ct <31 are recommended. Comparing different virus detection methods close to their LoD was challenging and significant discordance was observed.

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant in England during May to July 2021

BackgroundThe prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to drive rates of illness and hospitalisations despite high levels of vaccination, with the proportion of cases caused by the Delta lineage increasing in many populations. As vaccination programs roll out globally and social distancing is relaxed, future SARS-CoV-2 trends are uncertain. MethodsWe analysed prevalence trends and their drivers using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) swab-positivity data from round 12 (between 20 May and 7 June 2021) and round 13 (between 24 June and 12 July 2021) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, with swabs sent to non-overlapping random samples of the population ages 5 years and over in England. ResultsWe observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time in round 13 of 25 days (lower Credible Interval of 15 days) and an increase in average prevalence from 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%) in round 12 to 0.63% (0.57%, 0.18%) in round 13. The rapid growth across and within rounds appears to have been driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by the high prevalence in younger less-vaccinated age groups, with a nine-fold increase between rounds 12 and 13 among those aged 13 to 17 years. Prevalence among those who reported being unvaccinated was three-fold higher than those who reported being fully vaccinated. However, in round 13, 44% of infections occurred in fully vaccinated individuals, reflecting imperfect vaccine effectiveness against infection despite high overall levels of vaccination. Using self-reported vaccination status, we estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection in round 13 of 49% (22%, 67%) among participants aged 18 to 64 years, which rose to 58% (33%, 73%) when considering only strong positives (Cycle threshold [Ct] values < 27); also, we estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection of 59% (23%, 78%), with any one of three common COVID-19 symptoms reported in the month prior to swabbing. Sex (round 13 only), ethnicity, household size and local levels of deprivation jointly contributed to the risk of higher prevalence of swab-positivity. DiscussionFrom end May to beginning July 2021 in England, where there has been a highly successful vaccination campaign with high vaccine uptake, infections were increasing exponentially driven by the Delta variant and high infection prevalence among younger, unvaccinated individuals despite double vaccination continuing to effectively reduce transmission. Although slower growth or declining prevalence may be observed during the summer in the northern hemisphere, increased mixing during the autumn in the presence of the Delta variant may lead to renewed growth, even at high levels of vaccination.

Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundCommunity surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity provide prevalence estimates largely unaffected by biases from who presents for routine case testing. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) has estimated swab-positivity approximately monthly since May 2020 in England from RT-PCR testing of self-administered throat and nose swabs in random non-overlapping cross-sectional community samples. Estimating infection incidence from swab-positivity requires an understanding of the persistence of RT-PCR swab positivity in the community. MethodsDuring round 8 of REACT-1 from 6 January to 22 January 2021, of the 2,282 participants who tested RT-PCR positive, we recruited 896 (39%) from whom we collected up to two additional swabs for RT-PCR approximately 6 and 9 days after the initial swab. We estimated sensitivity and duration of positivity using an exponential model of positivity decay, for all participants and for subsets by initial N-gene cycle threshold (Ct) value, symptom status, lineage and age. Estimates of infection incidence were obtained for the entire duration of the REACT-1 study using P-splines. ResultsWe estimated the overall sensitivity of REACT-1 to detect virus on a single swab as 0.79 (0.77, 0.81) and median duration of positivity following a positive test as 9.7 (8.9, 10.6) days. We found greater median duration of positivity where there was a low N-gene Ct value, in those exhibiting symptoms, or for infection with the Alpha variant. The estimated proportion of positive individuals detected on first swab, P0, was found to be higher for those with an initially low N-gene Ct value and those who were pre-symptomatic. When compared to swab-positivity, estimates of infection incidence over the duration of REACT-1 included sharper features with evident transient increases around the time of key changes in social distancing measures. DiscussionHome self-swabbing for RT-PCR based on a single swab, as implemented in REACT-1, has high overall sensitivity. However, participants time-since-infection, symptom status and viral lineage affect the probability of detection and the duration of positivity. These results validate previous efforts to estimate incidence of SARS-CoV-2 from swab-positivity data, and provide a reliable means to obtain community infection estimates to inform policy response.

Reduced neutralisation of the Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern following vaccination

Vaccines are proving to be highly effective in controlling hospitalisation and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection but the emergence of viral variants with novel antigenic profiles threatens to diminish their efficacy. Assessment of the ability of sera from vaccine recipients to neutralise SARS-CoV-2 variants will inform the success of strategies for minimising COVID19 cases and the design of effective antigenic formulations. Here, we examine the sensitivity of variants of concern (VOCs) representative of the B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 (first associated with infections in India) and B.1.351 (first associated with infection in South Africa) lineages of SARS-CoV-2 to neutralisation by sera from individuals vaccinated with the BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford/AstraZeneca) vaccines. Across all vaccinated individuals, the spike glycoproteins from B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 conferred reductions in neutralisation of 4.31 and 5.11-fold respectively. The reduction seen with the B.1.617.2 lineage approached that conferred by the glycoprotein from B.1.351 (South African) variant (6.29-fold reduction) that is known to be associated with reduced vaccine efficacy. Neutralising antibody titres elicited by vaccination with two doses of BNT162b2 were significantly higher than those elicited by vaccination with two doses of ChAdOx1. Fold decreases in the magnitude of neutralisation titre following two doses of BNT162b2, conferred reductions in titre of 7.77, 11.30 and 9.56-fold respectively to B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.351 pseudoviruses, the reduction in neutralisation of the delta variant B.1.617.2 surpassing that of B.1.351. Fold changes in those vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1 were 0.69, 4.01 and 1.48 respectively. The accumulation of mutations in these VOCs, and others, demonstrate the quantifiable risk of antigenic drift and subsequent reduction in vaccine efficacy. Accordingly, booster vaccines based on updated variants are likely to be required over time to prevent productive infection. This study also suggests that two dose regimes of vaccine are required for maximal BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1-induced immunity.

Chronic SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral evolution in a hypogammaglobulinaemic individual.

There is widespread interest in the capacity for SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the face of selective pressures from host immunity, either naturally acquired post-exposure or from vaccine acquired immunity. Allied to this is the potential for long perm persistent infections within immune compromised individuals to allow a broader range of viral evolution in the face of sub-optimal immune driven selective pressure. Here we report on an immunocompromised individual who is hypogammaglobulinaemic and was persistently infected with SARS-CoV-2 for over 290 days, the longest persistent infection recorded in the literature to date. During this time, nine samples of viral nucleic acid were obtained and analysed by next-generation sequencing. Initially only a single mutation (L179I) was detected in the spike protein relative to the prototypic SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-Hu-1 isolate, with no further changes identified at day 58. However, by day 155 the spike protein had acquired a further four amino acid changes, namely S255F, S477N, H655Y and D1620A and a two amino acid deletion ({Delta}H69/{Delta}V70). Infectious virus was cultured from a nasopharyngeal sample taken on day 155 and next-generation sequencing confirmed that the mutations in the virus mirrored those identified by sequencing of the corresponding swab sample. The isolated virus was susceptible to remdesivir in vitro, however a 17-day course of remdesivir started on day 213 had no effect on the viral RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value. On day 265 the patient was treated with the combination of casirivimab and imdevimab. The patient experienced progressive resolution of all symptoms over the next 8 weeks and by day 311 the virus was no longer detectable by RT-PCR. The {Delta}H69/{Delta}V70 deletion in the N-terminus of the spike protein which arose in our patient is also present in the B.1.1.7 variant of concern and has been associated with viral escape mutagenesis after treatment of another immunocompromised patient with convalescent plasma. Our data confirms the significance of this deletion in immunocompromised patients but illustrates it can arise independently of passive antibody transfer, suggesting the deletion may be an enabling mutation that compensates for distant changes in the spike protein that arise under selective pressure.

REACT-1 round 11 report: low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community prior to the third step of the English roadmap out of lockdown

BackgroundNational epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections are being driven by: the degree of recent indoor mixing (both social and workplace), vaccine coverage, intrinsic properties of the circulating lineages, and prior history of infection (via natural immunity). In England, infections, hospitalisations and deaths fell during the first two steps of the "roadmap" for exiting the third national lockdown. The third step of the roadmap in England takes place on 17 May 2021. MethodsWe report the most recent findings on community infections from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in which a swab is obtained from a representative cross-sectional sample of the population in England and tested using PCR. Round 11 of REACT-1 commenced self-administered swab-collection on 15 April 2021 and completed collections on 3 May 2021. We compare the results of REACT-1 round 11 to round 10, in which swabs were collected from 11 to 30 March 2021. ResultsBetween rounds 10 and 11, prevalence of swab-positivity dropped by 50% in England from 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) to 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%), with a corresponding R estimate of 0.90 (0.87, 0.94). Rates of swab-positivity fell in the 55 to 64 year old group from 0.17% (0.12%, 0.25%) in round 10 to 0.06% (0.04%, 0.11%) in round 11. Prevalence in round 11 was higher in the 25 to 34 year old group at 0.21% (0.12%, 0.38%) than in the 55 to 64 year olds and also higher in participants of Asian ethnicity at 0.31% (0.16%, 0.60%) compared with white participants at 0.09% (0.07%, 0.11%). Based on sequence data for positive samples for which a lineage could be identified, we estimate that 92.3% (75.9%, 97.9%, n=24) of infections were from the B.1.1.7 lineage compared to 7.7% (2.1%, 24.1%, n=2) from the B.1.617.2 lineage. Both samples from the B.1.617.2 lineage were detected in London from participants not reporting travel in the previous two weeks. Also, allowing for suitable lag periods, the prior close alignment between prevalence of infections and hospitalisations and deaths nationally has diverged. DiscussionWe observed marked reductions in prevalence from March to April and early May 2021 in England reflecting the success of the vaccination programme and despite easing of restrictions during lockdown. However, there is potential upwards pressure on prevalence from the further easing of lockdown regulations and presence of the B.1.617.2 lineage. If prevalence rises in the coming weeks, policy-makers will need to assess the possible impact on hospitalisations and deaths. In addition, consideration should be given to other health and economic impacts if increased levels of community transmission occur.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from January to March 2021 inferred from representative community samples

Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained from a variety of sources. Here, we describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR during the first three months of 2021 as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the B.1.1.7 lineage (first identified in Kent) predominant, driven by a 0.3 unit higher reproduction number over the prior wild type. During January, positive samples were more likely B.1.1.7 in younger and middle-aged adults (aged 18 to 54) than in other age groups. Although individuals infected with the B.1.1.7 lineage were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild type, they were more likely to be antibody positive 6 weeks after infection. Viral load was higher in B.1.1.7 infection as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values, but did not account for the increased rate of testing positive for antibodies. The presence of infections with non-imported B.1.351 lineage (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing and targeted public health interventions and does not immediately imply similar lineages could not become established in the future. Sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance.

Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 Mutations in Immunodeficient Patients

Long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunodeficient patients are an important source of variation for the virus but are understudied. Many case studies have been published which describe one or a small number of long-term infected individuals but no study has combined these sequences into a cohesive dataset. This work aims to rectify this and study the genomics of this patient group through a combination of literature searches as well as identifying new case series directly from the COG-UK dataset. The spike gene receptor binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domains (NTD) were identified as mutation hotspots. Numerous mutations associated with variants of concern were observed to emerge recurrently. Additionally a mutation in the envelope gene, - T30I was determined to be the most recurrent frequently occurring mutation arising in persistent infections. A high proportion of recurrent mutations in immunodeficient individuals are associated with ACE2 affinity, immune escape, or viral packaging optimisation. There is an apparent selective pressure for mutations which aid intra-host transmission or persistence which are often different to mutations which aid inter-host transmission, although the fact that multiple recurrent de novo mutations are considered defining for variants of concern strongly indicates that this potential source of novel variants should not be discounted.

City-wide wastewater genomic surveillance through the successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has been essential to provide an evidence base for public health decisions throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Sequencing data from clinical cases has provided data crucial to understanding disease transmission and the detection, surveillance, and containment of outbreaks of novel variants, which continue to pose fresh challenges. However, genomic wastewater surveillance can provide important complementary information by providing estimates of variant frequencies which do not suffer from sampling bias, and capturing all variants circulating in a population. Here we show that genomic SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance can detect fine-scale differences within urban centres, specifically within the city of Liverpool, UK, during the emergence of Alpha and Delta variants between November 2020 and June 2021. Overall, the correspondence between wastewater and clinical variant frequencies demonstrates the reliability of wastewater surveillance. Yet, discrepancies between the two approaches when the Alpha variant was first detected emphasises that wastewater monitoring can also capture missing information resulting from asymptomatic cases or communities less engaged with testing programmes, as found by a simultaneous surge testing effort across the city.