A systematic review and meta-analysis of short-stay programmes for total hip and knee replacement, focusing on safety and optimal patient selection.

BACKGROUND: Short-stay joint replacement programmes are used in many countries but there has been little scrutiny of safety outcomes in the literature. We aimed to systematically review evidence on the safety of short-stay programmes versus usual care for total hip (THR) and knee replacement (KR), and optimal patient selection. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies including a comparator group reporting on 14 safety outcomes (hospital readmissions, reoperations, blood loss, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, neurovascular injury, other complications, periprosthetic fractures, postoperative falls, venous thromboembolism, wound complications, dislocation, stiffness) within 90 days postoperatively in adults ≥ 18 years undergoing primary THR or KR were included. Secondary outcomes were associations between patient demographics or clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. Four databases were searched between January 2000 and May 2023. Risk of bias and certainty of the evidence were assessed. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies were included. Based upon low certainty RCT evidence, short-stay programmes may not reduce readmission (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.12-7.43); blood transfusion requirements (OR 1.75, 95% CI 0.27-11.36); neurovascular injury (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.01-7.92); other complications (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.26-1.53); or stiffness (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.53-2.05). For registry studies, there was no difference in readmission, infection, neurovascular injury, other complications, venous thromboembolism, or wound complications but there were reductions in mortality and dislocations. For interrupted time series studies, there was no difference in readmissions, reoperations, blood loss volume, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, or neurovascular injury; reduced odds of blood transfusion and other complications, but increased odds of periprosthetic fracture. For other observational studies, there was an increased risk of readmission, no difference in blood loss volume, infection, other complications, or wound complications, reduced odds of requiring blood transfusion, reduced mortality, and reduced venous thromboembolism. One study examined an outcome relevant to optimal patient selection; it reported comparable blood loss for short-stay male and female participants (p = 0.814). CONCLUSIONS: There is low certainty evidence that short-stay programmes for THR and KR may have non-inferior 90-day safety outcomes. There is little evidence on factors informing optimal patient selection; this remains an important knowledge gap.

Forecasting the future burden of primary total shoulder replacement in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the number of primary total shoulder replacements (TSR) in Australia to the year 2035, and associated costs. METHODS: De-identified TSR data for 2009-2019 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population data, including population projections to 2035, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Three forecasting scenarios were used: constant TSR rates from 2019 onwards (Scenario 1, conservative); continued growth in TSR rates using negative binomial regression (Scenario 2, exponential); and continued growth using negative binomial regression with monotone B-splines (Scenario 3, moderate). Healthcare costs were estimated using TSR projections and average procedure costs, inflated to 2035 Australian dollars. RESULTS: The use of TSR increased by 242% in Australia from 2009 to 2019 (from 1983 to 6789 procedures for people ≥40 years). Under Scenario 1, the incidence of TSR is conservatively projected to rise to 9676 procedures by 2035 (43% increase from 2019), at a cost of $AUD 312.6 million to the health system. Under Scenario 2, TSR incidence would increase to 45,295 procedures by 2035 (567% increase), costing $AUD 1.46 billion. Under Scenario 3, 28,257 TSR procedures are forecast in 2035 (316% increase) at a cost of $913 million. CONCLUSIONS: Recent growth in TSR likely relates to prosthesis improvements, greater surgeon proficiency, and expanded clinical indications. Under moderate and exponential scenarios that consider rising TSR rates and population projections, Australia would face three- to five-fold growth in procedures by 2035. This would have profound implications for the healthcare budget, clinical workforce, and infrastructure.

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019: an opportunity to understand the growing prevalence and impact of hip, knee, hand and other osteoarthritis in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding population-level trends in osteoarthritis (OA) is critical for planning health services and disease prevention initiatives. AIM: To examine trends in the burden of hip, knee, hand and other OA related conditions in Australia from 1990 to 2019 and consider the OA burden in the context of other common conditions associated with older age. METHODS: Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data for Australia on OA prevalence, OA-related years lived with disability (YLDs) and OA-related YLDs attributable to high body mass index (BMI) were sourced for 1990-2019. Age-standardised YLD data for ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, type 2 diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were obtained for comparison. RESULTS: Overall, 3.20 million Australians were estimated to have OA in 2019, with substantial growth in the prevalence of hip (+171%), knee (+126%), hand (+110%) and other types of OA (+130%) from 1990 to 2019. Age-standardised prevalence rates reflect the contribution of population ageing. Concomitant growth in OA-related YLDs was also evident; knee OA and hand OA demonstrated the highest disease burden in 2019 (59 684 and 41 893 YLDs respectively). The proportion of knee OA burden attributable to high BMI was 36% in 2019. In 2019, age-standardised YLD rates were higher for OA (313 per 100 000 population) than other common conditions (range: 47 per 100 000 (ischaemic heart disease) to 284 per 100 000 (type 2 diabetes)). CONCLUSIONS: OA is an increasingly prevalent, impactful condition with a high non-fatal disease burden relative to other health conditions. Growth in OA populations and OA-related disability underscore the need for enhanced investment in prevention and management.

Stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs: results from a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The capacity to meet anticipated growth in joint replacement demand requires safe, efficient models of care. While short-stay joint replacement programs are being used internationally, they have not been widely implemented in many countries. Importantly, the critical challenges that need to be addressed ahead of large-scale program implementation remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs, including perceived barriers and enablers to implementation and sustainability, and understand current practices in Australia. METHODS: Four key stakeholder groups were invited to participate in this national study: (1) health professionals who provide joint replacement care; (2) hospital administrators involved in joint replacement provision; (3) patients with recent joint replacement; and (4) carers of people with recent joint replacement. Data on perceived feasibility (0 (not at all feasible) - 10 (highly feasible), appeal (0 (not at all appealing) - 10 (highly appealing), current practices, and barriers and enablers were collected using visual analogue scales, multiple response option and open-ended questions, via an online platform. Descriptive analysis and free-text content analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Data were available from 1,445 participants including 360 health professionals, 20 hospital administrators, 1,034 patients, and 31 carers. Short-stay program implementation was considered moderately feasible by health professionals (median 6, interquartile range (IQR) 3-8) and hospital administrators (median 5, IQR 5-6). Short-stay programs were moderately appealing to patients (median 7, IQR 2-9) but of little appeal to carers (median 3, IQR 1-7). Prominent implementation barriers included perceived limited appropriateness of short-stay programs, inadequate home supports, and issues around reimbursement models or program funding. Not having daily physiotherapy access and concerns about pain and mobility at home were common barriers for patients. Concern about patients' ability to manage daily activities was the most common barrier for carers. Access to post-discharge services, better funding models, improved staffing, and consistent protocols and national care standards were prominent enablers. CONCLUSIONS: This national study has uniquely captured multiple stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs. The findings can guide future quality improvement and implementation initiatives and the development of resources to best support patients, carers, clinicians, and hospitals.

Preliminary development of recommendations for the inclusion of patient-reported outcome measures in clinical quality registries.

BACKGROUND: Clinical quality registries (CQRs) monitor compliance against optimal practice and provide feedback to the clinical community and wider stakeholder groups. Despite a number of CQRs having incorporated the patient perspective to support the evaluation of healthcare delivery, no recommendations for inclusion of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in CQRs exist. The aim of this study was to develop a core set of recommendations for PROMs inclusion of in CQRs. METHOD: An online two-round Delphi survey was performed among CQR data custodians, quality of life researchers, biostatisticians and clinicians largely recruited in Australia. A list of statements for the recommendations was identified from a literature and survey of the Australian registries conducted in 2019. The statements were grouped into the following domains: rationale, setting, ethics, instrument, administration, data management, statistical methods, and feedback and reporting. Eighteen experts were invited to participate, 11 agreed to undertake the first online survey (round 1). Of these, nine experts completed the online survey for round 2. RESULTS: From 117 statements presented to the Delphi panel in round 1, a total of 72 recommendations (55 from round 1 and 17 from round 2) with median importance (MI) ≥ 7 and disagreement index (DI) < 1 were proposed for inclusion into the final draft set and were reviewed by the project team. Recommendations were refined for clarity and to read as stand-alone statements. Ten overlapped conceptually and, therefore, were merged to reduce repetition. The final 62 recommendations were sent for review to the panel members for their feedback, which was incorporated into the final set. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to develop preliminary recommendations for PROMs inclusion in CQRs. Recommendations for PROMs implementation are critically important for registries to assure meaningful PROMs data capture, use, interpretation, and reporting to improve health outcomes and healthcare value.

Poor Knee-specific and Generic Patient-reported Outcome Measure Scores at 6 Months Are Associated With Early Revision Knee Arthroplasty: A Study From the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry.

BACKGROUND: The ability to identify which patients are at a greater risk of early revision knee arthroplasty has important practical and resource implications. Many international arthroplasty registries administer patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to provide a holistic assessment of pain, function, and quality of life. However, few PROM scores have been evaluated as potential indicators of early revision knee arthroplasty, and earlier studies have largely focused on knee-specific measures. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This national registry-based study asked: (1) Which 6-month postoperative knee-specific and generic PROM scores are associated with early revision knee arthroplasty (defined as revision surgery performed 6 to 24 months after the primary procedure)? (2) Is a clinically important improvement in PROM scores (based on thresholds for the minimal important change) after primary knee arthroplasty associated with a lower risk of early revision? METHODS: Preoperative and 6-month postoperative PROM scores for patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty were sourced from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) and Arthroplasty Clinical Outcomes Registry National. Between January 2013 and December 2020, PROM data were available for 19,402 primary total knee arthroplasties; these data were linked to AOANJRR data on revision knee arthroplasty. Of these, 3448 procedures were excluded because they did not have 6-month PROM data, they had not reached the 6-month postoperative point, they had died before 24 months, or they had received revision knee arthroplasty before the 6-month PROMs assessment. After these exclusions, data were analyzed for 15,954 primary knee arthroplasties. Associations between knee-specific (knee pain, Oxford Knee Score, and 12-item Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score [KOOS-12]) or generic PROM scores (5-level EuroQol quality of life instrument [EQ-5D], EQ VAS, perceived change, and satisfaction) and revision surgery were explored using t-tests, chi-square tests, and regression models. Ninety-four revision procedures were performed at 6 to 24 months, most commonly for infection (39% [37 procedures]). The early revision group was younger than the unrevised group (mean age 64 years versus 68 years) and a between-group difference in American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade was noted. Apart from a small difference in preoperative low back pain for the early revision group (mean low back pain VAS 4.2 points for the early revision group versus 3.3 points for the unrevised group), there were no between-group differences in preoperative knee-specific or generic PROM scores on univariate analysis. As the inclusion of ASA grade or low back pain score did not alter the model results, the final multivariable model included only the most clinically plausible confounders (age and gender) as covariates. Multivariable models (adjusting for age and gender) were also used to examine the association between a clinically important improvement in PROM scores (based on published thresholds for minimal important change) and the likelihood of early revision. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and gender, poor postoperative knee pain, Oxford, KOOS-12, EQ-5D, and EQ VAS scores were all associated with early revision. A one-unit increase (worsening) in knee pain at 6 months was associated with a 31% increase in the likelihood of revision (RR 1.31 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 1.43]; p < 0.001). Reflecting the reversed scoring direction, a one-unit increase (improvement) in Oxford or KOOS-12 score was associated with a 9% and 5% reduction in revision risk, respectively (RR for Oxford: 0.91 [95% CI 0.90 to 0.93]; p < 0.001; RR for KOOS-12 summary: 0.95 [95% CI 0.94 to 0.97]; p < 0.001). Patient dissatisfaction (RR 6.8 [95% CI 3.7 to 12.3]) and patient-perceived worsening (RR 11.7 [95% CI 7.4 to 18.5]) at 6 months were also associated with an increased likelihood of early revision. After adjusting for age and gender, patients who did not achieve a clinically important improvement in PROM scores had a higher risk of early revision (RR 2.9 for the knee pain VAS, RR 4.2 for the Oxford Knee Score, RR 6.3 to 8.6 for KOOS-12, and RR 2.3 for EQ-5D) compared with those who did (reference group). CONCLUSION: Knee-specific and generic PROM scores offer an efficient approach to identifying patients at greater risk of early revision surgery, using either the 6-month score or the magnitude of improvement. These data indicate that surgeons can use single- and multi-item measures to detect a patient-perceived unsuccessful surgical outcome at 6 months after primary knee arthroplasty. Surgeons should be alert to poor PROM scores at 6 months or small improvements in scores (for example, less than 2 points for knee pain VAS or less than 10.5 points for Oxford Knee Score), which signal a need for direct patient follow-up or expedited clinical review. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.

Does a Prescription-based Comorbidity Index Correlate with the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score and Mortality After Joint Arthroplasty? A Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: When analyzing the outcomes of joint arthroplasty, an important factor to consider is patient comorbidities. The presence of multiple comorbidities has been associated with longer hospital stays, more postoperative complications, and increased mortality. The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system score is a measure of a patient's overall health and has been shown to be associated with complications and mortality after joint arthroplasty. The Rx-Risk score is another measure for determining the number of different health conditions for which an individual is treated, with a possible score ranging from 0 to 47. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: For patients undergoing THA or TKA, we asked: (1) Which metric, the Rx-Risk score or the ASA score, correlates more closely with 30- and 90-day mortality after TKA or THA? (2) Is the Rx-Risk score correlated with the ASA score? METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) database linked to two other national databases, the National Death Index (NDI) database and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), a dispensing database. Linkage to the NDI provided outcome information on patient death, including the fact of and date of death. Linkage to the PBS was performed to obtain records of all medicines dispensed to patients undergoing a joint replacement procedure. Patients were included if they had undergone either a THA (119,076 patients, 131,336 procedures) or TKA (182,445 patients, 215,712 procedures) with a primary diagnosis of osteoarthritis, performed between 2013 and 2017. We excluded patients with missing ASA information (THA: 3% [3055 of 119,076]; TKA: 2% [4095 of 182,445]). This left 127,761 primary THA procedures performed in 116,021 patients (53% [68,037 of 127,761] were women, mean age 68 ± 11 years) and 210,501 TKA procedures performed in 178,350 patients (56% [117,337 of 210,501] were women, mean age 68 ± 9 years) included in this study. Logistic regression models were used to determine the concordance of the ASA and Rx-Risk scores and 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality. The Spearman correlation coefficient (r) was used to estimate the correlation between the ASA score and Rx-Risk score. All analyses were performed separately for THAs and TKAs. RESULTS: We found both the ASA and Rx-Risk scores had high concordance with 30-day mortality after THA (ASA: c-statistic 0.83 [95% CI 0.79 to 0.86]; Rx-Risk: c-statistic 0.82 [95% CI 0.79 to 0.86]) and TKA (ASA: c-statistic 0.73 [95% CI 0.69 to 0.78]; Rx-Risk: c-statistic 0.74 [95% CI 0.70 to 0.79]). Although both scores were strongly associated with death, their correlation was moderate for patients undergoing THA (r = 0.45) and weak for TKA (r = 0.38). However, the median Rx-Risk score did increase with increasing ASA score. For example, for THAs, the median Rx-Risk score was 1, 3, 5, and 7 for ASA scores 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. For TKAs, the median Rx-Risk score was 2, 4, 5, and 7 for ASA scores 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. CONCLUSION: The ASA physical status and RxRisk were associated with 30-day and 90-day mortality; however, the scores were only weakly to moderately correlated with each other. This suggests that although both scores capture a similar level of patient illness, each score may be capturing different aspects of health. The Rx-Risk may be used as a complementary measure to the ASA score. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.

Applying the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health framework to determine the predictors of falls and fractures in people with osteoarthritis or at high risk of developing osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Falls are a major cause of injury and death among older people. Evidence suggests that people with osteoarthritis (OA) are at a higher risk of falls and fall-related injuries including fractures. While studies demonstrate a link between OA and falls, little is known about the pathways that link falls with demographic factors, OA impairments, activity limitations and participation restrictions. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for falls and fractures among people with OA or at high risk of developing OA using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework. METHODS: A longitudinal analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) dataset was undertaken. Participants were considered to have OA if they reported they had been diagnosed with knee or hip OA by a medical practitioner. Outcomes were self-reported falls and fractures. Potential predictors were classified using the ICF framework. Poisson regression models were used to determine the risk factors for falls and fractures. RESULTS: Of the 4796 participants, 2270 (47%) were diagnosed with knee and/or hip OA. A higher proportion of participants with OA reported having had falls (72% vs 63%; p < 0.0001) and fractures (17% vs 14%; p = 0.012) than those without OA. Personal factors were found to be stronger predictors of falls and fractures compared to OA impairments, activity limitations and participation restrictions in this sample of participants. After adjusting for potential covariates, self-reported history of falls was a significant predictor of both increased falls (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40, 4.60) and fracture risk (IRR 1.38; 95% CI 1.13, 1.69). CONCLUSIONS: By applying the ICF framework, we have shown that personal factors were more likely to predict falls and fractures rather than OA impairments, environmental factors, activity limitations and participation restrictions in people with OA or at high risk of developing OA. This highlights the importance of questioning patients about their previous falls and past medical history, and using this information to focus our assessment and clinical decision-making processes.

Tweets by People With Arthritis During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Content and Sentiment Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests that people with arthritis are reporting increased physical pain and psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, Twitter's daily usage has surged by 23% throughout the pandemic period, presenting a unique opportunity to assess the content and sentiment of tweets. Individuals with arthritis use Twitter to communicate with peers, and to receive up-to-date information from health professionals and services about novel therapies and management techniques. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this research was to identify proxy topics of importance for individuals with arthritis during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to explore the emotional context of tweets by people with arthritis during the early phase of the pandemic. METHODS: From March 20 to April 20, 2020, publicly available tweets posted in English and with hashtag combinations related to arthritis and COVID-19 were extracted retrospectively from Twitter. Content analysis was used to identify common themes within tweets, and sentiment analysis was used to examine positive and negative emotions in themes to understand the COVID-19 experiences of people with arthritis. RESULTS: In total, 149 tweets were analyzed. The majority of tweeters were female and were from the United States. Tweeters reported a range of arthritis conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and psoriatic arthritis. Seven themes were identified: health care experiences, personal stories, links to relevant blogs, discussion of arthritis-related symptoms, advice sharing, messages of positivity, and stay-at-home messaging. Sentiment analysis demonstrated marked anxiety around medication shortages, increased physical symptom burden, and strong desire for trustworthy information and emotional connection. CONCLUSIONS: Tweets by people with arthritis highlight the multitude of concurrent concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding these concerns, which include heightened physical and psychological symptoms in the context of treatment misinformation, may assist clinicians to provide person-centered care during this time of great health uncertainty.

"I Would be More of a Liability than an Asset": Navigating the Workplace as a Younger Person with Arthritis.

Purpose Over half the population in Australia with arthritis and other musculoskeletal conditions is aged 25-64 years. This reflects the peak income-earning years for most, yet little research has examined the influence of arthritis on work issues specific to younger people. The aim of this research was to examine the work-related experiences of younger people (defined as those aged 18-50 years). Methods A qualitative exploratory design was used. Participants with inflammatory arthritis or osteoarthritis were recruited from the community, including urban and rural settings. An interview guide was based on the World Health Organization's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Deductive and inductive coding techniques were used to identify emerging work-related themes from the data. Results Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 younger people (90% female) with a mix of arthritis conditions, vocational backgrounds and career stages. Three themes were identified: (1) the perceived impacts of arthritis on career trajectories, (2) the impacts of arthritis on participants' workplace environment, employers, and colleagues, and (3) the personal toll of working with arthritis. The personal toll of working with arthritis relates to the arthritis-attributable impacts of physical and psychological symptoms on productivity and presenteeism in the workplace. Conclusion Younger people with arthritis experience numerous challenges at key stages of their careers, from career planning through to productive working. This can be used to inform workplace accommodations for people with arthritis and increase awareness of likely barriers to work productivity among colleagues, employers and clinicians.

A mixed methods process evaluation of a person-centred falls prevention program.

BACKGROUND: RESPOND is a telephone-based falls prevention program for older people who present to a hospital emergency department (ED) with a fall. A randomised controlled trial (RCT) found RESPOND to be effective at reducing the rate of falls and fractures, compared with usual care, but not fall injuries or hospitalisations. This process evaluation aimed to determine whether RESPOND was implemented as planned, and identify implementation barriers and facilitators. METHODS: A mixed-methods evaluation was conducted alongside the RCT. Evaluation participants were the RESPOND intervention group (n = 263) and the clinicians delivering RESPOND (n = 7). Evaluation data were collected from participant recruitment and intervention records, hospital administrative records, audio-recordings of intervention sessions, and participant questionnaires. The Rochester Participatory Decision-Making Scale (RPAD) was used to evaluate person-centredness (score range 0 (worst) - 9 (best)). Process factors were compared with pre-specified criteria to determine implementation fidelity. Six focus groups were held with participants (n = 41), and interviews were conducted with RESPOND clinicians (n = 6). Quantitative data were analysed descriptively and qualitative data thematically. Barriers and facilitators to implementation were mapped to the 'Capability, Opportunity, Motivation - Behaviour' (COM-B) behaviour change framework. RESULTS: RESPOND was implemented at a lower dose than the planned 10 h over 6 months, with a median (IQR) of 2.9 h (2.1, 4). The majority (76%) of participants received their first intervention session within 1 month of hospital discharge with a median (IQR) of 18 (12, 30) days. Clinicians delivered the program in a person-centred manner with a median (IQR) RPAD score of 7 (6.5, 7.5) and 87% of questionnaire respondents were satisfied with the program. The reports from participants and clinicians suggested that implementation was facilitated by the use of positive and personally relevant health messages. Complex health and social issues were the main barriers to implementation. CONCLUSIONS: RESPOND was person-centred and reduced falls and fractures at a substantially lower dose, using fewer resources, than anticipated. However, the low dose delivered may account for the lack of effect on falls injuries and hospitalisations. The results from this evaluation provide detailed information to guide future implementation of RESPOND or similar programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12614000336684 (27 March 2014).

The projected burden of primary total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in Australia to the year 2030.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive national joint replacement registries with well-validated data offer unique opportunities for examining the potential future burden of hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) at a population level. This study aimed to forecast the burden of primary total knee (TKR) and hip replacements (THR) performed for OA in Australia to the year 2030, and to model the impact of contrasting obesity scenarios on TKR burden. METHODS: De-identified TKR and THR data for 2003-2013 were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population projections and obesity trends were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with public and private hospital costs sourced from the National Hospital Cost Data Collection. Procedure rates were projected according to two scenarios: (1) constant rate of surgery from 2013 onwards; and (2) continued growth in surgery rates based on 2003-2013 growth. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate future TKR burden if: (1) obesity rates continued to increase linearly; or (2) 1-5% of the overweight or obese population attained a normal body mass index. RESULTS: Based on recent growth, the incidence of TKR and THR for OA is estimated to rise by 276% and 208%, respectively, by 2030. The total cost to the healthcare system would be $AUD5.32 billion, of which $AUD3.54 billion relates to the private sector. Projected growth in obesity rates would result in 24,707 additional TKRs totalling $AUD521 million. A population-level reduction in obesity could result in up to 8062 fewer procedures and cost savings of up to $AUD170 million. CONCLUSIONS: If surgery trends for OA continue, Australia faces an unsustainable joint replacement burden by 2030, with significant healthcare budget and health workforce implications. Strategies to reduce national obesity could produce important TKR savings.

Arthritis diagnosis and symptoms are positively associated with specific physical job exposures in lower- and middle-income countries: cross-sectional results from the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE).

BACKGROUND: In higher income countries, work-related squatting and heavy lifting have been associated with increased arthritis risk. Here, we address the paucity of data regarding associations between arthritis and work-related physical stressors in lower- and middle-income countries. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Wave 1 (2007-10) for adults (aged ≥50 years) from Ghana, India, Russia and South Africa for whom detailed occupation data was available (n = 21,389; 49.2% women). Arthritis cases were identified using a symptom-defined algorithm (current) and self-reported doctor-diagnosis (lifetime). A sex-specific Job Exposure Matrix was used to classify work-related stressors: heavy physical work, kneeling/squatting, heavy lifting, arm elevation and awkward trunk posture. Using the International Standard Classification of Occupations, we linked SAGE and the Job Exposure Matrix. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between arthritis and work-related stressors, adjusting for age (10 year age groupings), potential socioeconomic-related confounders, and body mass index. Excess exposure risk due to two-way interactions with other risk factors were explored. RESULTS: Doctor-diagnosed arthritis was associated with heavy physical work (adjusted odds ratios [OR] 1.12, 95%CI 1.01-1.23), awkward trunk posture (adjusted OR 1.23, 95%CI 1.12-1.36), kneeling or squatting (adjusted OR 1.25, 95%CI 1.12-1.38), and arm elevation (adjusted OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.37-2.00). Symptom-based arthritis was associated with kneeling or squatting (adjusted OR 1.27, 95%CI 1.08-1.50), heavy lifting (adjusted OR 1.33, 95%CI 1.11-1.58), and arm elevation (adjusted OR 2.16, 95%CI 1.63-2.86). Two-way interactions suggested excess arthritis risk existed for higher body mass index, and higher income or education. CONCLUSIONS: Minimization of occupational health risk factors is common practice in higher income countries: attention should now be directed toward reducing work-related arthritis burden in lower- and middle-income countries.

Collecting patient-reported outcome measures.

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROM) are potentially useful outcome measures that may be reported at the individual clinical, health service and/or health system level. PROM require clearly defined patient populations to enable comparisons, and are most meaningful when integrated with clinical data sets. Where possible PROM should be measured pre- and post-intervention using reliable and validated tools. A variety of PROM collection methods exist which each have strengths and limitations, with selection depending on their purpose and patient factors. PROM programmes should be developed with high levels of clinician support and patient input to maximise collection of clinically relevant information.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. INTERPRETATION: Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition--in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden--is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Management of pregnancy in women with rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity may improve during pregnancy but postpartum flares are common. Patients taking disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs should be counselled about effective contraception. Knowledge about drug safety in pregnancy is limited but the Therapeutic Goods Administration categories and online resources are a guide to the data currently available. Begin prepregnancy counselling as early as possible to allow for cessation of teratogenic medications and optimisation of RA disease control. For unplanned pregnancies, cease teratogenic medications immediately and refer to a genetic counsellor and maternal-fetal medicine specialist for risk assessment and advice.

Understanding the information needs of women with rheumatoid arthritis concerning pregnancy, post-natal care and early parenting: A mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Although women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) face a number of challenges in negotiating the journey to parenthood, no studies have explored the information needs of women with RA in relation to their childbearing years. This study aimed to determine the need for (and preferred mode/s of delivery of) information regarding pregnancy, post-natal care and early parenting among women with RA. METHODS: Interviews and focus groups were conducted with 27 women with RA who were pregnant in the last 5 years, currently pregnant or planning pregnancy. Verbatim transcripts were analysed using both inductive and deductive approaches. Two validated instruments were used to quantify information needs and preferences: the Educational Needs Assessment Tool (ENAT, range 0-156, higher scores indicate higher educational needs) and the Autonomy Preference Index (API, range 0-100, higher scores indicate stronger preferences). RESULTS: Lack of information about medication safety, access to physical/emotional support services and practical strategies for coping with daily challenges related to parenting were the most prominent of the six key themes identified. Rheumatologists were the primary source for information regarding treatment decisions while arthritis consumer organisations were perceived as critical 'resource hubs'. There was strong preference for information delivered electronically, especially among rural participants. Quantitative outcomes supported the qualitative findings; on average, participants reported high educational needs (mean ENAT score 97.2, SD 30.8) and API scores indicated that desire for information (mean 89.8, SD 5.6) was greater than the need for involvement in treatment decision-making (mean 68.4, SD 8.2). CONCLUSIONS: Many women with RA struggle to find adequate information on pregnancy planning, pregnancy and early parenting in relation to their chronic condition, and there is a clear need to develop accessible information that is consumer-focused and evidence-based. Although most participants trusted their rheumatologist as their primary information source, there was consistent demand for more information, particularly regarding the safety of RA medications during pregnancy and breastfeeding, and the importance of learning from other women's personal experiences was strongly emphasised.

Using WOMAC Index scores and personal characteristics to estimate Assessment of Quality of Life utility scores in people with hip and knee joint disease.

PURPOSE: To determine whether Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL) utility scores can be reliably estimated from Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scores in people with hip and knee joint disease (arthritis or osteoarthritis). METHODS: WOMAC and AQoL data were analysed from 219 people recruited for a national population-based study. Generalised linear models were used to estimate AQoL utility scores based on WOMAC total and subscale scores and personal characteristics. Goodness of fit was assessed for each model, and plots of prediction errors versus actual AQoL utility scores were used to gauge bias. RESULTS: Each model closely predicted the average AQoL utility score for the overall sample (actual mean AQoL 0.64, range of predicted means 0.63-0.64; actual median AQoL 0.71, range of predicted medians 0.68-0.69). No clear preferred model was identified, and overall, the models predicted 40-46% of the variance in AQoL utility scores. The WOMAC function subscale model performed similarly to the total score model. The models functioned best at the mid-range of AQoL scores, with greater bias observed for extreme scores. Inaccuracies in individual-level estimates and low/high health-related quality of life (HRQoL) subgroup estimates were evident. CONCLUSION: Reliable overall group-level estimates were produced, supporting the application of these techniques at a population level. Using WOMAC scores to predict individual AQoL utility scores is not recommended, and the models may produce inaccurate estimates in studies targeting patients with low/high HRQoL. Where pain and stiffness data are unavailable, the WOMAC function subscale can be used to generate a reasonable utility estimate.