Lck availability during thymic selection determines the recognition specificity of the T cell repertoire.

Thymic selection requires signaling by the protein tyrosine kinase Lck to generate T cells expressing αß T cell antigen receptors (TCR). For reasons not understood, the thymus selects only αßTCR that are restricted by major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-encoded determinants. Here, we report that Lck proteins that were coreceptor associated promoted thymic selection of conventionally MHC-restricted TCR, but Lck proteins that were coreceptor free promoted thymic selection of MHC-independent TCR. Transgenic TCR with MHC-independent specificity for CD155 utilized coreceptor-free Lck to signal thymic selection in the absence of MHC, unlike any transgenic TCR previously described. Thus, the thymus can select either MHC-restricted or MHC-independent αßTCR depending on whether Lck is coreceptor associated or coreceptor free. We conclude that the intracellular state of Lck determines the specificity of thymic selection and that Lck association with coreceptor proteins during thymic selection is the mechanism by which MHC restriction is imposed on a randomly generated αßTCR repertoire.

IL-7 signaling must be intermittent, not continuous, during CD8⁺ T cell homeostasis to promote cell survival instead of cell death.

The maintenance of naive CD8(+) T cells is necessary for lifelong immunocompetence but for unknown reasons requires signaling via both interleukin 7 (IL-7) and the T cell antigen receptor (TCR). We now report that naive CD8(+) T cells required IL-7 signaling to be intermittent, not continuous, because prolonged IL-7 signaling induced naive CD8(+) T cells to proliferate, produce interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and undergo IFN-γ-triggered cell death. Homeostatic engagement of the TCR interrupted IL-7 signaling and thereby supported the survival and quiescence of CD8(+) T cells. However, CD8(+) T cells with insufficient TCR affinity for self ligands received prolonged IL-7 signaling and died during homeostasis. In this study we identified regulation of the duration of IL-7 signaling by homeostatic engagement of the TCR as the basis for in vivo CD8(+) T cell homeostasis.

Listening to the Voices of Community Health Workers: A Multilevel, Culture-Centered Approach to Overcoming Structural Barriers in U.S. Latinx Communities.

Community Health Workers (CHWs) are often incorporated into efforts to reduce health disparities for vulnerable populations. However, their voices are rarely the focus of research when considering how to increase their job effectiveness and sustainability. The current study addresses this gap by privileging the voices of 28 CHWs who work with Latinx communities in Nebraska through in-depth, semistructured interviews. Using a multilevel, Culture-Centered Approach (CCA) to Health Communication, we identified two key structural communication issues: (a) increasing language accommodation and (b) increasing (and stabilizing) network integration across three ecological levels of health behavior (individual, microsystem, and exosystem). This study shows the uniquely valuable perspective that CHWs have as they navigate hierarchical health care structures and community cultures to meet the needs of their Latinx clients. Findings suggest that CHWs should be included in health care organization and policy discussions to reduce health disparities for Latinx populations.

National, Regional and Global Certification Bodies for Polio Eradication: A Framework for Verifying Measles Elimination.

The Global Certification Commission (GCC), Regional Certification Commissions (RCCs), and National Certification Committees (NCCs) provide a framework of independent bodies to assist the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in certifying and maintaining polio eradication in a standardized, ongoing, and credible manner. Their members meet regularly to comprehensively review population immunity, surveillance, laboratory, and other data to assess polio status in the country (NCC), World Health Organization (WHO) region (RCC), or globally (GCC). These highly visible bodies provide a framework to be replicated to independently verify measles and rubella elimination in the regions and globally.

Thymic medullary epithelium and thymocyte self-tolerance require cooperation between CD28-CD80/86 and CD40-CD40L costimulatory pathways.

A critical process during thymic development of the T cell repertoire is the induction of self-tolerance. Tolerance in developing T cells is highly dependent on medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTEC), and mTEC development in turn requires signals from mature single-positive thymocytes, a bidirectional relationship termed thymus crosstalk. We show that CD28-CD80/86 and CD40-CD40L costimulatory interactions, which mediate negative selection and self-tolerance, upregulate expression of LTα, LTß, and receptor activator for NF-κB in the thymus and are necessary for medullary development. Combined absence of CD28-CD80/86 and CD40-CD40L results in profound deficiency in mTEC development comparable to that observed in the absence of single-positive thymocytes. This requirement for costimulatory signaling is maintained even in a TCR transgenic model of high-affinity TCR-ligand interactions. CD4 thymocytes maturing in the altered thymic epithelial environment of CD40/CD80/86 knockout mice are highly autoreactive in vitro and are lethal in congenic adoptive transfer in vivo, demonstrating a critical role for these costimulatory pathways in self-tolerance as well as thymic epithelial development. These findings demonstrate that cooperativity between CD28-CD80/86 and CD40-CD40L pathways is required for normal medullary epithelium and for maintenance of self-tolerance in thymocyte development.

TRAF3 enforces the requirement for T cell cross-talk in thymic medullary epithelial development.

Induction of self-tolerance in developing T cells depends on medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTECs), whose development, in turn, requires signals from single-positive (SP) thymocytes. Thus, the absence of SP thymocytes in Tcra(-/-) mice results in a profound deficiency in mTECs. Here, we have probed the mechanism that underlies this requirement for cross-talk with thymocytes in medullary development. Previous studies have implicated nonclassical NF-κB as a pathway important in the development of mTECs, because mice lacking RelB, NIK, or IKKα, critical components of this pathway, have an almost complete absence of mTECs, with resulting autoimmune pathology. We therefore assessed the effect of selective deletion in TEC of TNF receptor-associated factor 3 (TRAF3), an inhibitor of nonclassical NF-κB signaling. Deletion of TRAF3 in thymic epithelial cells allowed RelB-dependent development of normal numbers of AIRE-expressing mTECs in the complete absence of SP thymocytes. Thus, mTEC development can occur in the absence of cross-talk with SP thymocytes, and signals provided by SP T cells are needed to overcome TRAF3-imposed arrest in mTEC development mediated by inhibition of nonclassical NF-κB. We further observed that TRAF3 deletion is also capable of overcoming all requirements for LTßR and CD40, which are otherwise necessary for mTEC development, but is not sufficient to overcome the requirement for RANKL, indicating a role for RANKL that is distinct from the signals provided by SP thymocytes. We conclude that TRAF3 plays a central role in regulation of mTEC development by imposing requirements for SP T cells and costimulation-mediated cross-talk in generation of the medullary compartment.

Maintaining polio-free certification in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region for over a decade.

On 29 October 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication in the Western Pacific certified the WHO Western Pacific Region as free of indigenous wild poliovirus. This status has been maintained to date: wild poliovirus importations into Singapore (in 2006) and Australia (in 2007) did not lead to secondary cases, and an outbreak in China (in 2011) was rapidly controlled. Circulation of vaccine derived polioviruses in Cambodia, China and the Philippines was quickly interrupted. A robust acute flaccid paralysis surveillance system, including a multitiered polio laboratory network, has been maintained, forming the platform for integrating measles, neonatal tetanus, and other vaccine-preventable disease surveillance and their respective control goals. While polio elimination remains one of the most important achievements in public health in the Western Pacific Region, extended delays in global eradication have, however, led to shifting and competing public health priorities among member states and partners and have made the region increasingly vulnerable.

Basis of CTLA-4 function in regulatory and conventional CD4(+) T cells.

CTLA-4 proteins contribute to the suppressor function of regulatory T cells (Tregs), but the mechanism by which they do so remains incompletely understood. In the present study, we assessed CTLA-4 protein function in both Tregs and conventional (Tconv) CD4(+) T cells. We report that CTLA-4 proteins are responsible for all 3 characteristic Treg functions of suppression, TCR hyposignaling, and anergy. However, Treg suppression and anergy only required the external domain of CTLA-4, whereas TCR hyposignaling required its internal domain. Surprisingly, TCR hyposignaling was neither required for Treg suppression nor anergy because costimulatory blockade by the external domain of CTLA-4 was sufficient for both functions. We also report that CTLA-4 proteins were localized in Tregs in submembrane vesicles that rapidly recycled to/from the cell surface, whereas CTLA-4 proteins in naive Tconv cells were retained in Golgi vesicles away from the cell membrane and had no effect on Tconv cell function. However, TCR signaling of Tconv cells released CTLA-4 proteins from Golgi retention and caused activated Tconv cells to acquire suppressor function. Therefore, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of intracellular localization for CTLA-4 protein function and reveal that CTLA-4 protein externalization imparts suppressor function to both regulatory and conventional CD4(+) T cells.

Differences in neuroretinal function between adult males and females.

PURPOSE: To determine whether neuroretinal function differs in healthy adult males and females younger and older than 50 years. METHODS: This study included one eye from each of 50 normal subjects (29 females and 21 males). Neuroretinal function was assessed using first-order P1 implicit times (ITs) and N1-P1 amplitudes (AMPs) obtained from photopic multifocal electroretinograms. To assess local differences, retinal maps of local IT and (separately) AMP averages were constructed for each subject group. To examine global differences, each subject's 103 ITs and (separately) AMPs were also averaged to create whole-eye averages. Subsequently, retinal maps and whole-eye averages of one subject group were compared with those of another. RESULTS: In subjects younger than 50 years, neuroretinal function differed significantly between the males and females: local ITs were significantly shorter at 83 of 103 tested retinal locations, and whole-eye IT averages were shorter (p = 0.015) in the males compared with the females. In contrast, no analysis indicated that the males and females older than 50 years were significantly different. A subanalysis showed that the females who reported a hysterectomy (n = 5) had the longest whole-eye ITs of all subject groups (p ≤ 0.0013). In the females who did not report a hysterectomy, neuroretinal function was worse in the females older than 50 years compared with the females younger than 50 years: local ITs were significantly longer at 62 of 103 retinal locations tested, and whole-eye IT averages tended to be greater (p = 0.04). Conversely, ITs were not statistically different between the younger and older males. N1-P1 amplitudes did not differ between the sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Multifocal electroretinogram IT differs between males and females, depending on the age group and hysterectomy status.

Early neural and vascular changes in the adolescent type 1 and type 2 diabetic retina.

PURPOSE: This cross-sectional study examines the existence and frequency of functional and structural abnormalities in the adolescent Type 1 diabetic retina. We also compare the results with those of adolescents with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Thirty-two adolescents with Type 1 diabetes (5.7 ± 3.6 years; mean duration ± SD), 15 with Type 2 diabetes (2.1 ± 1.3 years), and 26 age-matched control subjects were examined. Multifocal electroretinogram responses from 103 retinal regions were recorded. Optical coherence tomography was used to measure retinal thickness. Vascular diameter around the optic nerve was also assessed. RESULTS: Nine of the 32 (28%) adolescents with Type 1 diabetes and 6 of the 15 (40%) with Type 2 diabetes had significant multifocal electroretinogram implicit time delays compared with 2 of the 26 controls (8%). Retinal thicknesses in both patient groups were significantly (P ≤ 0.01) thinner than controls. The Type 2 group also showed significant (P ≤ 0.03) retinal venular dilation (235.8 ± 5.9 µm) compared with controls (219.6 ± 4.0 µm). CONCLUSION: The present study illustrates that subtle but significant functional and structural changes occur very early in Type 1 diabetes. Adolescents with Type 2 diabetes appear to be more affected than those with Type 1 diabetes. Further longitudinal examination of the etiology and progression of these abnormalities is warranted.

Blood pressure, vessel caliber, and retinal thickness in diabetes.

PURPOSE: In this study, we examine the association of blood pressure (BP), retinal thickness (RT), and vessel caliber in patients with type 2 diabetes and high HbA1c (elevated long-term blood glucose) with or without mild or moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR). METHODS: Forty-three patients with type 2 diabetes and high HbA1c measures (23 without NPDR and 20 with mild to moderate NPDR) and 22 age-matched nondiabetic controls participated. The BP, RT (Stratus OCT3), fundus photography, and HbA1c were measured. Correlations between BP, HbA1c, vessel caliber, and RT were evaluated. RESULTS: Diastolic BP (DBP) is positively and significantly associated with RT in patients with NPDR (p < 0.02). Blood pressure was not associated with RT in patients without NPDR (p = 0.83). There is an association between higher HbA1c and higher DBP within the NPDR group (p < 0.02). Furthermore, HbA1c modifies the slope of the relationship between DBP and RT in NPDR patients. Greater venule diameters and loss of the correlation between decreased arteriole size and increased systolic blood pressure, seen in controls, were observed in patients with and without NPDR. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study show that HbA1c and BP together have an impact on RT measures of patients with DR. These measures should be considered when evaluating RT in patients with DR both clinically and in future optical coherence tomography studies on this population.

Subclinical capillary changes in non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy.

PURPOSE: To establish adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscopy as a method to detect and characterize microscopic signs of diabetic retinopathy in capillaries and cone photoreceptors in the parafovea. METHODS: Recently, adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscope (AOSLO) has enabled noninvasive assessment of photoreceptors, capillaries, and leukocytes in the retinas of live human subjects. Repeated application of AOSLO imaging along with comparison to fluorescein angiography was used to track individual capillaries near the foveal avascular zone (FAZ) from one eye affected with severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy. Fluorescein angiography was used to identify clinical signs of diabetic retinopathy, such as microaneurysms and intraretinal microvascular abnormalities, and corresponding regions were imaged and assessed using the AOSLO. In addition, the structural integrity of photoreceptors and the spatial distribution of leukocytes around the parafoveal capillary network were quantitatively assessed. RESULTS: Capillaries and cone photoreceptors were visualized using the AOSLO without the use of injected contrast agents. Although the majority of capillaries were stable over a period of 16 months, one capillary at the edge of the FAZ dropped out, leading to a small but significant increase in FAZ size. Longitudinal assessment of the capillaries also showed microaneurysm formation and disappearance as well as the formation of tiny capillary bends similar in appearance to intraretinal microvascular abnormalities. The leukocytes in the capillary network were found to preferentially travel through the same routes in all four visits, suggesting that these channels are robust against small changes to the surrounding capillaries. In this eye, cone photoreceptor spacing was increased in the fovea when compared with normal data but stable across all visits. CONCLUSIONS: AOSLO imaging can be used to longitudinally track capillaries, leukocytes, and photoreceptors in diabetic retinopathy. Capillary changes that can be detected include dropout of individual capillaries as well as formation and disappearance of microaneurysms.

Mobilization of Patients Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Before Lung Transplant.

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation is increasingly used to provide cardiopulmonary support to patients awaiting lung transplant. Although studies have shown that these patients benefit from early mobilization, the care team often has concerns about related complications, particularly for patients requiring femoral cannulation. OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety of mobilizing patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation before lung transplant using a standardized mobility protocol. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed of the electronic health records of patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation before or immediately after lung transplant who were mobilized according to a standardized protocol from April through October 2018. The setting was an 18-bed cardiothoracic intensive care unit in a Magnet-designated teaching hospital. Patients were helped to ambulate by an interdisciplinary team, with careful assessment for any related complications. RESULTS: During the study period, 37 patients received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and 9 were mobilized. Two hundred forty-two therapy sessions were conducted involving 47 700 feet of ambulation. Patients experienced the following complications: chugging (1 patient), decrease in flow rate (2 patients), bleeding at the cannula site (2 patients), neck hyperextension (1 patient), fear/anxiety (1 patient), and shortness of breath (2 patients). Bleeding and neck hyperextension led to discontinuation of therapy until the problems were resolved. No changes were made to the protocol. CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation before lung transplant, including those with femoral cannulation, can be mobilized safely with the use of an interprofessional ambulation protocol. Further evaluation is indicated, including research on clinical outcomes.

Restricting Zap70 expression to CD4+CD8+ thymocytes reveals a T cell receptor-dependent proofreading mechanism controlling the completion of positive selection.

Although T cell receptor (TCR) signals are essential for intrathymic T cell-positive selection, it remains controversial whether they only serve to initiate this process, or whether they are required throughout to promote thymocyte differentiation and survival. To address this issue, we have devised a novel approach to interfere with thymocyte TCR signaling in a developmental stage-specific manner in vivo. We have reconstituted mice deficient for Zap70, a tyrosine kinase required for TCR signaling and normally expressed throughout T cell development, with a Zap70 transgene driven by the adenosine deaminase (ADA) gene enhancer, which is active in CD4(+)CD8(+) thymocytes but inactive in CD4(+) or CD8(+) single-positive (SP) thymocytes. In such mice, termination of Zap70 expression impaired TCR signal transduction and arrested thymocyte development after the initiation, but before the completion, of positive selection. Arrested thymocytes had terminated Rag gene expression and up-regulated TCR and Bcl-2 expression, but failed to differentiate into mature CD4 or CD8 SP thymocytes, to be rescued from death by neglect or to sustain interleukin 7R alpha expression. These observations identify a TCR-dependent proofreading mechanism that verifies thymocyte TCR specificity and differentiation choices before the completion of positive selection.

Multifocal VEP (mfVEP) reveals abnormal neuronal delays in diabetes.

This pilot study examined the diagnostic role of multifocal visually evoked potentials (mfVEP) in a small number of patients with diabetes. mfVEP, mfERG, and fundus photographs of both eyes of five patients with diabetes, three with nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) and two without NPDR were examined. Thirteen control subjects were also examined. Eighteen zones were constructed from the 60-element mfVEP stimulus array. mfVEP implicit time (IT) and amplitude (SNR) differences were tested between subject groups. We also examined whether there was a difference in function for patches with and without retinopathy in the NPDR group. Lastly, we compared mfVEP and mfERG results in the same patients. We found significant mfVEP IT differences between controls and all patients with diabetes, controls and diabetics without retinopathy, and between controls and diabetics with retinopathy. The subject groups did not differ significantly in terms of SNR. In the retinopathy group, ITs from zones with retinopathy were significantly longer than ITs from zones without retinopathy (P = 0.016). mfERG IT was more frequently abnormal than mfVEP IT. In addition, mfERG hexagons were twice as likely to be abnormal if the corresponding mfVEP zone was abnormal (P < 0.05). mfVEP implicit times are significantly delayed in patients with diabetes even when there is no retinopathy. These cortical response results are similar, albeit considerably less abnormal, than those previously reported for retinal (mfERG) responses in patients with diabetes. A correlation exists between the location of abnormal mfERG hexagons and abnormal mfVEP zones.

Reproducibility of the mfERG between instruments.

PURPOSE: First, to examine both the reproducibility of the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) recorded on different versions of the same instrument, and the repeatability of the mfERG recorded on a single instrument using two different amplifiers. Second, to demonstrate a means by which multicenter and longitudinal studies that use more than one recording instrument can compare and combine data effectively. METHODS: Three different amplifiers and two mfERG setups, one using VERIS 4.3 software (mfERG1) and another using VERIS Pro 5.2 software (mfERG2), were evaluated. A total of 73 subjects with normal vision were tested in three groups. Group 1 (n = 42) was recorded using two amplifiers in parallel on mfERG1. Group 2 (n = 52) was recorded on mfERG2 using a single amplifier. Group 3 was a subgroup of 21 subjects from groups 1 and 2 that were tested sequentially on both instruments. A fourth group of 26 subjects with diabetes were also recorded using the two parallel amplifiers on mfERG1. P1 implicit times and N1-P1 amplitudes of the 103 local first order mfERGs were measured, and the differences between the instruments and amplifiers were evaluated as raw scores and Z-scores based on normative data. Measurements of individual responses and measurements averaged over the 103 responses were analyzed. RESULTS: Simultaneous recordings made on mfERG1 with the two different amplifiers showed differences in implicit times but similar amplitudes. There was a mean implicit time difference of 2.5 ms between the amplifiers but conversion to Z-scores improved their agreement. Recordings made on different days with the two instruments produced similar but more variable results, with amplitudes differing between them more than implicit times. For local response implicit times, the 95% confidence interval of the difference between instruments was approximately +/-1 Z-score (+/-0.9 ms) in either direction. For local response amplitude, it was approximately +/-1.6 Z-scores (+/-0.3 microV). CONCLUSIONS: Different amplifiers can yield quite different mfERG P1 implicit times, even with identical band-pass settings. However, the reproducibility of mfERG Z-scores across recording instrumentation is relatively high. Comparison of data across systems and laboratories, necessary for multicenter or longitudinal investigations, is facilitated if raw data are converted into Z-scores based on normative data.

Adolescents with Type 2 diabetes: early indications of focal retinal neuropathy, retinal thinning, and venular dilation.

PURPOSE: The eye provides a unique window into the neural and vascular health of a patient with diabetes. The present study is the first of its kind to examine the neural retinal function, structure, and retinal vascular health in adolescents with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Focal neural responses from 103 discrete retinal regions of the eye were tested using multifocal electroretinography. Optical coherence tomography was utilized to measure retinal thickness. Digital fundus photographs were examined for the presence of retinopathy and to measure vascular caliber using retinal vessel analysis. Fifteen adolescents diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes, aged 13 to 21 years with a mean diabetes duration of 2.1 +/- 1.3 years, were tested. Twenty-six age-matched control subjects were also tested. RESULTS: Multifocal electroretinograms of the Type 2 diabetic group were significantly (P = 0.03) delayed by 0.49 milliseconds. The diabetic group also showed significant (both; P < or = 0.03) retinal thinning (10.3 microm) and significant venular dilation (16.2 microm). CONCLUSION: The present study shows early indications of focal retinal neuropathy, retinal thinning, and venular dilation in adolescents with Type 2 diabetes. Early detection of functional and structural changes will hopefully aid in the prevention of permanent damage or further functional loss.

OCT reveals regional differences in macular thickness with age.

PURPOSE: To assist identification of macular thickness abnormalities by optical coherence tomography (OCT), we use techniques that improve spatial localization across the retina to establish any age-related retinal thickness changes in healthy eyes. METHODS: Retinal thickness was measured in 30 eyes of 30 healthy subjects aged 13 to 69 years. Using Stratus OCT 3, 12 radial scans centered at the foveola were acquired and points between scans were interpolated to create a topographic map of the central 20 degrees . The thickness map was divided into 37 hexagonal regions. A mean retinal thickness for each hexagon was computed. Retinal thickness vs. age was evaluated for the entire scanned area, five anatomical regions, and within individual hexagons. The retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) contribution to total retinal thinning was analyzed in the papillomacular region. RESULTS: There was a small but significant thinning of the overall macular area with increasing age (2.7 mum/decade; p = 0.027). Comparing the 10 youngest subjects (age 13 to 27 years) with the 10 oldest (age 51 to 68 years), retinal thicknesses in the temporal, superior, inferior, and foveal regions were not significantly different. However, the two age groups differed significantly in retinal thickness in the nasal region (p < 0.008). Across all subjects, retinal thickness in this region was linearly correlated with age, decreasing by 4.1 mum/decade (p < 0.002). Approximately 43% of the retinal thinning in the nasal region was attributed to RNFL loss. CONCLUSIONS: The method of OCT acquisition and analysis used in this study allows for greater spatial localization of change in retinal thickness associated with aging or pathological processes. Based on the results of this study, the macula thins with increasing age but does so nonuniformly. The greatest amount of thinning occurs nasal to the fovea. RNFL loss accounts for much, but not all the thinning in this area.

Local diabetic retinopathy prediction by multifocal ERG delays over 3 years.

PURPOSE: To derive and validate a model for use in predicting local retinal areas in which nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) lesions will develop over a 3-year period, by using primarily the implicit time (IT) of the multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG). METHODS: Eighteen diabetic patients were examined at baseline and at three annual follow-ups. Ophthalmic examinations, including fundus photographs and mfERG testing, were performed at each visit. Thirty-five retinal zones were constructed from the 103-element stimulus array, and each zone was assigned the maximum IT z-score within it based on 30 age-similar control subjects. Logistic regression was used to investigate the development of retinopathy in relation to baseline mfERG IT delays and additional diabetic health variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the models. RESULTS: Retinopathy developed in 77 of the 1208 retinal zones, of which 25 had recurring retinopathy. Multivariate analyses yielded baseline mfERG IT, duration of diabetes, and blood glucose concentration as the most important predictors of recurring retinopathy. mfERG ITs were not predictive of transient retinopathy. ROC curves based on the multivariate model for the prediction of recurring retinopathy resulted in an area under the curve of 0.95, sensitivity of 88%, and specificity of 98%. Ten-fold cross-validation confirmed the high sensitivity and specificity of the model. CONCLUSIONS: The development of recurring retinopathy over a 3-year period can be well predicted by using a multivariate model based on mfERG implicit time. Multifocal ERG delays are promising candidate measures for trials of novel therapeutics directed at preventing or slowing the progression of NPDR.