Prioritizing Non-Carbon Dioxide Removal Mitigation Strategies Could Reduce the Negative Impacts Associated with Large-Scale Reliance on Negative Emissions.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary for reaching net zero emissions, with studies showing potential deployment at multi-GtCO2 scale by 2050. However, excessive reliance on future CDR entails serious risks, including delayed emissions cuts, lock-in of fossil infrastructure, and threats to sustainability from increased resource competition. This study highlights an alternative pathway─prioritizing near-term non-CDR mitigation and minimizing CDR dependence. We impose a 1 GtCO2 limit on global novel CDR deployment by 2050, forcing aggressive early emissions reductions compared to 8-22 GtCO2 in higher CDR scenarios. Our results reveal that this low CDR pathway significantly decreases fossil fuel use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and air pollutants compared to higher CDR pathways. Driving rapid energy transitions eases pressures on land (including food cropland), water, and fertilizer resources required for energy and negative emissions. However, these sustainability gains come with higher mitigation costs from greater near-term low/zero-carbon technology deployment for decarbonization. Overall, this work provides strong evidence for maximizing non-CDR strategies such as renewables, electrification, carbon neutral/negative fuels, and efficiency now rather than betting on uncertain future CDR scaling. Ambitious near-term mitigation in this decade is essential to prevent lock-in and offer the best chance of successful deep decarbonization. Our constrained CDR scenario offers a robust pathway to achieving net zero emissions with limited sustainability impacts.

Simulating the land use change effects on non-point source pollution in the Duliujian River Basin.

The uncertainty in the generation and formation of non-point source pollution makes it challenging to monitor and control this type of pollution. The SWAT model is frequently used to simulate non-point source pollution in watersheds and is mainly applied to natural watersheds that are less affected by human activities. This study focuses on the Duliujian River Basin (Xiqing section), which is characterized by a dense population and rapid urbanization. Based on the calibrated SWAT model, this study analyzed the effects of land use change on non-point source pollution both temporally and spatially. It was found that nitrogen and phosphorus non-point source pollution load losses were closely related to land use type, with agricultural land and high-density urban land (including rural settlements) being the main contributors to riverine nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. This indicates the necessity of analyzing the impact of land use changes on non-point source pollution loads by identifying critical source areas and altering the land use types that contribute heavily to pollution in these areas. The simulation results of land use type changes in these critical source areas showed that the reduction effect on non-point source pollution load is in the order of forest land > grassland > low-density residential area. To effectively curb surface source pollution in the study area, strategies such as modifying urban land use types, increasing vegetation cover and ground infiltration rate, and strictly controlling the discharge of domestic waste and sewage from urban areas can be implemented.

Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia's energy-water-land nexus.

Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO2yr-1 (GtCO2yr-1) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO2yr-1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.