RESUMO
PURPOSE: Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Standard treatments for locally advanced rectal cancer include neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision (TME), which are associated with significant morbidity. After neoadjuvant therapy, one-third of patients achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) and are eligible for a watch-and-wait approach without TME. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential predictors of pCR before surgery. METHODS: The demographic, clinical, and endoscopic data of 119 patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer without distant metastasis who underwent restaging endoscopy and TME 6-8 weeks after the end of neoadjuvant therapy were collected. The absence of tumor cells in the histological examination of the TME specimen after neoadjuvant therapy was considered pCR. Binary logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were utilized for analysis. RESULTS: According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, flattening of marginal tumor swelling (p value < 0.001, odds ratio = 100.605) emerged as an independent predictor of pCR in rectal cancer patients. Additionally, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that lower preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen and erythrocyte sedimentation rate levels predict pCR, with cutoffs of 2.15 ng/ml and 19.0 mm/h, respectively. CONCLUSION: Carcinoembryonic antigen and erythrocyte sedimentation rate, along with the presence of flattening of marginal tumor swelling, can predict pCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with primary rectal cancer. These factors offer a potential method for selecting candidates for conservative treatment based on endoscopic and laboratory findings.