Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5.

The impacts of climate change and possible adaptations to food security are a global concern and need greater focus in arid and semi-arid regions. It includes scenario of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP-RCP8.5). For this purpose, two DSSAT maize models (CSM-CERES and CSM-IXIM) were calibrated and tested with two different maize cultivars namely Single Cross 10 (SC10) and Three Way Cross 324 (TW24) using a dataset of three growing seasons in Nile Delta. SC10 is a long-growing cultivar that is resistant to abiotic stresses, whereas TW24 is short and sensitive to such harsh conditions. The calibrated models were then employed to predict maize yield in baseline (1981-2010) and under future time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under CMIP5-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the use of various adaptation options as shifting planting date, increasing sowing density, and genotypes was included in crop models. Simulation analysis showed that, averaged over three GCMs and two crop models, the yield of late maturity cultivar (SC10) decreased by 4.1, 17.2, and 55.9% for the three time slices of 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, compared to baseline yield (1981-2010). Such reduction increased with early maturity cultivar (TW24), recording 12.4, 40.6, and 71.3% for near (2030s), mid (2050s), and late century (2080s) respectively relative to baseline yield. The most suitable adaptation options included choosing a stress-resistant genotype, changing the planting date to plus or minus 30 days from baseline planting date, and raising the sowing density to 9 m-2 plants. These insights could minimize the potential reduction of climate change-induced yields by 39% by late century.

The integrated effect of salinity, organic amendments, phosphorus fertilizers, and deficit irrigation on soil properties, phosphorus fractionation and wheat productivity.

Soil degradation due to global warming, water scarcity and diminishing natural resources negatively impacts food security. Soil fertility deterioration, particularly phosphorus (P) deficiency, remains a challenge in the arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, field experiments were conducted in different geographical locations to investigate the effects of organic amendments coupled with P fertilization and irrigation on soil physical-chemical properties, and the growth, yield and quality of wheat. Application of P fertilizers combined with organic amendments mitigated soil salinity, increased organic matter content, available water, hydraulic conductivity and available macronutrients, but decreased soil bulk density. Application of organic amendments slightly increased total Cd, Ni and Pb in soil, but Cd and Ni concentration was below allowable limits whilst Pb reached a hazardous level. Soil P fractions were significantly increased with the combined application of mineral P and organic amendments irrespective of salinity and irrigation. Crop growth yield and quality of wheat improved significantly in response to the integrated application of mineral P and organic amendments. In conclusion, the combination of mineral P sources with organic amendments could be successfully used as a cost-effective management practice to enhance soil fertility and crop production in the arid and semi-arid regions stressed with water scarcity and natural resource constraints.

Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta.

Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of <10%, and d-index > 0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 °C to 4 °C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by ~60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region.