Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District.

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week and under various weather conditions. Current and past rainfall damp fire risk. The likelihood of fire increases with maximum temperature. Dry spells or recent fire activity also signal extra fire hazard. Certain days are fire prone due to visitors and some months of the year are more risky reflecting the changing flammability of moorland vegetation. The model back-predicts earlier fires during a hot dry summer. The impact of climate change on fire incidence is not straightforward. Risks may be reduced if wetter winters and earlier onset of spring add to plant moisture content. Yet a warm spring increases biomass and potential fuel load in summer. Climate change may cause the timing of moorland wildfires to shift from a damper and more verdant spring to drought-stressed summer.

Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups.

Severe wildfires are an intermittent problem in England. The paper presents the first analysis of wildfire policy, showing its halting evolution over two decades. First efforts to coordinate wildfire management came from local fire operation groups, where stakeholders such as fire services, land owners and amenity groups shared knowledge and equipment to tackle the problem. A variety of structures and informal management solutions emerged in response to local needs. Knowledge of wildfire accumulated within regional and national wildfire forums and academic networks. Only later did the need for central emergency planning and the response to climate change produce a national policy response. Fire statistics have allowed wildfires to be spatially evidenced on a national scale only since 2009. National awareness of wildfire was spurred by the 2011 fire season, and the high-impact Swinley Forest fire, which threatened critical infrastructure and communities within 50 miles of London. Severe wildfire was included in the National Risk Register for the first time in 2013. Cross-sector approaches to wildfire proved difficult as government responsibility is fragmented along the hazard chain. Stakeholders such as the Forestry Commission pioneered good practice in adaptive land management to build fire resilience into UK forests. The grass-roots evolution of participatory solutions has also been a key enabling process. A coordinated policy is now needed to identify best practice and to promote understanding of the role of fire in the ecosystem.This article is part of a themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

Living on a flammable planet: interdisciplinary, cross-scalar and varied cultural lessons, prospects and challenges.

Living with fire is a challenge for human communities because they are influenced by socio-economic, political, ecological and climatic processes at various spatial and temporal scales. Over the course of 2 days, the authors discussed how communities could live with fire challenges at local, national and transnational scales. Exploiting our diverse, international and interdisciplinary expertise, we outline generalizable properties of fire-adaptive communities in varied settings where cultural knowledge of fire is rich and diverse. At the national scale, we discussed policy and management challenges for countries that have diminishing fire knowledge, but for whom global climate change will bring new fire problems. Finally, we assessed major fire challenges that transcend national political boundaries, including the health burden of smoke plumes and the climate consequences of wildfires. It is clear that to best address the broad range of fire problems, a holistic wildfire scholarship must develop common agreement in working terms and build across disciplines. We must also communicate our understanding of fire and its importance to the media, politicians and the general public.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.