Development and validation of a risk score using complete blood count to predict in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive risk score predicting the risk of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using complete blood count (CBC). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study from a total of 13,138 inpatients with COVID-19 in Hubei, China, and Milan, Italy. Among them, 9,810 patients with ≥2 CBC records from Hubei were assigned to the training cohort. CBC parameters were analyzed as potential predictors for all-cause mortality and were selected by the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). FINDINGS: Five risk factors were derived to construct a composite score (PAWNN score) using the Cox regression model, including platelet counts, age, white blood cell counts, neutrophil counts, and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio. The PAWNN score showed good accuracy for predicting mortality in 10-fold cross-validation (AUROCs 0.92-0.93) and subsets with different quartile intervals of follow-up and preexisting diseases. The performance of the score was further validated in 2,949 patients with only 1 CBC record from the Hubei cohort (AUROC 0.97) and 227 patients from the Italian cohort (AUROC 0.80). The latent Markov model (LMM) demonstrated that the PAWNN score has good prediction power for transition probabilities between different latent conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The PAWNN score is a simple and accurate risk assessment tool that can predict the mortality for COVID-19 patients during their entire hospitalization. This tool can assist clinicians in prioritizing medical treatment of COVID-19 patients. FUNDING: This work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504, 2016YFF0101505, 2020YFC2004702, 2020YFC0845500), the Key R&D Program of Guangdong Province (2020B1111330003), and the medical flight plan of Wuhan University (TFJH2018006).

Redefining Cardiac Biomarkers in Predicting Mortality of Inpatients With COVID-19.

The prognostic power of circulating cardiac biomarkers, their utility, and pattern of release in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have not been clearly defined. In this multicentered retrospective study, we enrolled 3219 patients with diagnosed COVID-19 admitted to 9 hospitals from December 31, 2019 to March 4, 2020, to estimate the associations and prognostic power of circulating cardiac injury markers with the poor outcomes of COVID-19. In the mixed-effects Cox model, after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the adjusted hazard ratio of 28-day mortality for hs-cTnI (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I) was 7.12 ([95% CI, 4.60-11.03] P<0.001), (NT-pro)BNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide) was 5.11 ([95% CI, 3.50-7.47] P<0.001), CK (creatine phosphokinase)-MB was 4.86 ([95% CI, 3.33-7.09] P<0.001), MYO (myoglobin) was 4.50 ([95% CI, 3.18-6.36] P<0.001), and CK was 3.56 ([95% CI, 2.53-5.02] P<0.001). The cutoffs of those cardiac biomarkers for effective prognosis of 28-day mortality of COVID-19 were found to be much lower than for regular heart disease at about 19%-50% of the currently recommended thresholds. Patients with elevated cardiac injury markers above the newly established cutoffs were associated with significantly increased risk of COVID-19 death. In conclusion, cardiac biomarker elevations are significantly associated with 28-day death in patients with COVID-19. The prognostic cutoff values of these biomarkers might be much lower than the current reference standards. These findings can assist in better management of COVID-19 patients to improve outcomes. Importantly, the newly established cutoff levels of COVID-19-associated cardiac biomarkers may serve as useful criteria for the future prospective studies and clinical trials.

Association of Blood Glucose Control and Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 and Pre-existing Type 2 Diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major comorbidity of COVID-19. However, the impact of blood glucose (BG) control on the degree of required medical interventions and on mortality in patients with COVID-19 and T2D remains uncertain. Thus, we performed a retrospective, multi-centered study of 7,337 cases of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, among which 952 had pre-existing T2D. We found that subjects with T2D required more medical interventions and had a significantly higher mortality (7.8% versus 2.7%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.49) and multiple organ injury than the non-diabetic individuals. Further, we found that well-controlled BG (glycemic variability within 3.9 to 10.0 mmol/L) was associated with markedly lower mortality compared to individuals with poorly controlled BG (upper limit of glycemic variability exceeding 10.0 mmol/L) (adjusted HR, 0.14) during hospitalization. These findings provide clinical evidence correlating improved glycemic control with better outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D.

In-Hospital Use of Statins Is Associated with a Reduced Risk of Mortality among Individuals with COVID-19.

Statins are lipid-lowering therapeutics with favorable anti-inflammatory profiles and have been proposed as an adjunct therapy for COVID-19. However, statins may increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 viral entry by inducing ACE2 expression. Here, we performed a retrospective study on 13,981 patients with COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, among which 1,219 received statins. Based on a mixed-effect Cox model after propensity score-matching, we found that the risk for 28-day all-cause mortality was 5.2% and 9.4% in the matched statin and non-statin groups, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.58. The statin use-associated lower risk of mortality was also observed in the Cox time-varying model and marginal structural model analysis. These results give support for the completion of ongoing prospective studies and randomized controlled trials involving statin treatment for COVID-19, which are needed to further validate the utility of this class of drugs to combat the mortality of this pandemic.

Apolipoprotein E Deficiency Exacerbates Spinal Cord Injury in Mice: Inflammatory Response and Oxidative Stress Mediated by NF-κB Signaling Pathway.

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a severe neurological trauma that involves complex pathological processes. Inflammatory response and oxidative stress are prevalent during the second injury and can influence the functional recovery of SCI. Specially, Apolipoprotein E (APOE) induces neuronal repair and nerve regeneration, and the deficiency of Apoe impairs spinal cord-blood-barrier and reduces functional recovery after SCI. However, the mechanism by which Apoe mediates signaling pathways of inflammatory response and oxidative stress in SCI remains largely elusive. This study was designed to investigate the signaling pathways that regulate Apoe deficiency-dependent inflammatory response and oxidative stress in the acute stage of SCI. In the present study, Apoe-/- mice retarded functional recovery and had a larger lesion size when compared to wild-type mice after SCI. Moreover, deficiency of Apoe induced an exaggerated inflammatory response by increasing expression of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß), and increased oxidative stress by reducing expression of Nrf2 and HO-1. Furthermore, lack of Apoe promoted neuronal apoptosis and decreased neuronal numbers in the anterior horn of the spinal cord after SCI. Mechanistically, we found that the absence of Apoe increased inflammation and oxidative stress through activation of NF-κB after SCI. In contrast, an inhibitor of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB; Pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate) alleviates these changes. Collectively, these results indicate that a critical role for activation of NF-κB in regulating Apoe-deficiency dependent inflammation and oxidative stress is detrimental to recovery after SCI.

Regulation of autophagy by AMP-activated protein kinase/sirtuin 1 pathway reduces spinal cord neurons damage.

OBJECTIVES: AMP-activated protein kinase/sirtuin 1 (AMPK/SIRT1) signaling pathway has been proved to be involved in the regulation of autophagy in various models. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of AMPK/SIRT1 pathway on autophagy after spinal cord injury (SCI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The SCI model was established in rats in vivo and the primary spinal cord neurons were subjected to mechanical injury (MI) in vitro. The apoptosis in spinal cord tissue and neurons was assessed by TUNEL staining and Hoechst 33342 staining, respectively. The autophagy-related proteins levels were detected by Western blot. The activation of AMPK/SIRT1 pathway was determined by Western blot and immunohistochemical staining. RESULTS: We found that the apoptosis of spinal cord tissue and cell damage of spinal cord neurons was obvious after the trauma. The ratio of LC3II/LC3I and level of p62 were first increased significantly and then decreased after the trauma in vivo and in vitro, indicating the defect in autophagy. The levels of p-AMPK and SIRT1 were increased obviously after the trauma in vivo and in vitro. Further activation of the AMPK/SIRT1 pathway by pretreatment with resveratrol, a confirmed activator of the AMPK/SIRT1 pathway, alleviated the cell damage and promoted the autophagy flux via downregulation of p62 in spinal cord neurons at 24 hr after MI. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that regulation of autophagy by AMPK/SIRT1 pathway can restrain spinal cord neurons damage, which may be a potential intervention of SCI.

The Role of Netrin-1 in Improving Functional Recovery through Autophagy Stimulation Following Spinal Cord Injury in Rats.

Our previous findings indicated that treatment with Netrin-1 could improve functional recovery through the stimulation of autophagy, by activating the AMP-activated protein kinase/mammalian target of rapamycin (AMPK/mTOR) signaling pathway in rats following spinal cord injury (SCI). However, the underlying mechanisms were not elucidated. The purpose of this study was to investigate the underlying mechanisms by which Netrin-1 promotes autophagy and improves functional recovery after SCI. Following controlled SCI in Sprague-Dawley rats, we observed that the autophagic flux in neurons was impaired, as reflected by the accumulation of light chain 3-II (LC3-II)-positive and LC3-positive autophagosomes (APs), accompanied by the accumulation of the autophagic substrate, Sequestosome 1 (SQSTM1; also known as p62). Our results showed that treatment with Netrin-1 increases the levels of the lysosomal protease cathepsin D (CTSD) and lysosomal-associated membrane protein 1 (LAMP1), through the regulation of the nuclear localization of Transcription factor EB (TFEB) via the AMPK/mTOR signaling pathway. In addition, this enhancement of lysosomal biogenesis correlated strongly with the restoration of autophagic flux, inhibition of neural apoptosis and improved functional recovery. Suppression of lysosomal biogenesis via the inhibition of the nuclear translocation of TFEB by Compound C abolished this restoration of autophagic flux and the functional recovery effects of Netrin-1 following SCI. Taken together, these results indicate that Netrin-1 enhances lysosomal biogenesis by regulating the nuclear translocation of TFEB via the AMPK/mTOR signaling pathway. Furthermore, the enhancement of lysosomal biogenesis by Netrin-1 following SCI promotes autophagic flux and improves functional recovery in rats. Thus, the regulation of lysosomal biogenesis by modulating the nuclear localization of TFEB might be a novel approach for the treatment of SCI.

HMGB1/Advanced Glycation End Products (RAGE) does not aggravate inflammation but promote endogenous neural stem cells differentiation in spinal cord injury.

Receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) signaling is involved in a series of cell functions after spinal cord injury (SCI). Our study aimed to elucidate the effects of RAGE signaling on the neuronal recovery after SCI. In vivo, rats were subjected to SCI with or without anti-RAGE antibodies micro-injected into the lesion epicenter. We detected Nestin/RAGE, SOX-2/RAGE and Nestin/MAP-2 after SCI by Western blot or immunofluorescence (IF). We found that neural stem cells (NSCs) co-expressed with RAGE were significantly activated after SCI, while stem cell markers Nestin and SOX-2 were reduced by RAGE blockade. We found that RAGE inhibition reduced nestin-positive NSCs expressing MAP-2, a mature neuron marker. RAGE blockade does not improve neurobehavior Basso, Beattie and Bresnahan (BBB) scores; however, it damaged survival of ventral neurons via Nissl staining. Through in vitro study, we found that recombinant HMGB1 administration does not lead to increased cytokines of TNF-α and IL-1ß, while anti-RAGE treatment reduced cytokines of TNF-α and IL-1ß induced by LPS via ELISA. Meanwhile, HMGB1 increased MAP-2 expression, which was blocked after anti-RAGE treatment. Hence, HMGB1/RAGE does not exacerbate neuronal inflammation but plays a role in promoting NSCs differentiating into mature neurons in the pathological process of SCI.

Netrin-1 Improves Functional Recovery through Autophagy Regulation by Activating the AMPK/mTOR Signaling Pathway in Rats with Spinal Cord Injury.

Autophagy is an process for the degradation of cytoplasmic aggregated proteins and damaged organelles and plays an important role in the development of SCI. In this study, we investigated the therapeutic effect of Netrin-1 and its potential mechanism for autophagy regulation after SCI. A rat model of SCI was established and used for analysis. Results showed that administration of Netrin-1 not only significantly enhanced the phosphorylation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) but also reduced the phosphorylation of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and P70S6K. In addition, the expression of Beclin-1 and the ratio of the light-chain 3B-II (LC3B-II)/LC3B-I in the injured spinal cord significantly increased in Netrin-1 group than those in SCI group. Moreover, the ratio of apoptotic neurons in the anterior horn of the spinal cord and the cavity area of spinal cord significantly decreased in Netrin-1 group compared with those in SCI group. In addition, Netrin-1 not only preserved motor neurons but also significantly improved motor fuction of injured rats. These results suggest that Netrin-1 improved functional recovery through autophagy stimulation by activating the AMPK/mTOR signaling pathway in rats with SCI. Thus, Netrin-1 treatment could be a novel therapeutic strategy for SCI.

Mdivi-1 Inhibits Astrocyte Activation and Astroglial Scar Formation and Enhances Axonal Regeneration after Spinal Cord Injury in Rats.

After spinal cord injury (SCI), astrocytes become hypertrophic, and proliferative, forming a dense network of astroglial processes at the site of the lesion. This constitutes a physical and biochemical barrier to axonal regeneration. Mitochondrial fission regulates cell cycle progression; inhibiting the cell cycle of astrocytes can reduce expression levels of axon growth-inhibitory molecules as well as astroglial scar formation after SCI. We therefore investigated how an inhibitor of mitochondrial fission, Mdivi-1, would affect astrocyte proliferation, astroglial scar formation, and axonal regeneration following SCI in rats. Western blot and immunofluorescent double-labeling showed that Mdivi-1 markedly reduced the expression of the astrocyte marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and a cell proliferation marker, proliferating cell nuclear antigen, in astrocytes 3 days after SCI. Moreover, Mdivi-1 decreased the expression of GFAP and neurocan, a chondroitin sulfate proteoglycan. Notably, immunofluorescent labeling and Nissl staining showed that Mdivi-1 elevated the production of growth-associated protein-43 and increased neuronal survival at 4 weeks after SCI. Finally, hematoxylin-eosin staining, and behavioral evaluation of motor function indicated that Mdivi-1 also reduced cavity formation and improved motor function 4 weeks after SCI. Our results confirm that Mdivi-1 promotes motor function after SCI, and indicate that inhibiting mitochondrial fission using Mdivi-1 can inhibit astrocyte activation and astroglial scar formation and contribute to axonal regeneration after SCI in rats.