Subregional statistical shape modelling identifies lesser trochanter size as a possible risk factor for radiographic hip osteoarthritis, a cross-sectional analysis from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.

OBJECTIVE: Statistical shape modelling (SSM) of hip dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans has identified relationships between hip shape and radiographic hip OA (rHOA). We aimed to further elucidate shape characteristics related to rHOA by focusing on subregions identified from whole-hip shape models. METHOD: SSM was applied to hip DXAs obtained in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study. Whole-hip shape modes (HSMs) associated with rHOA were combined to form a composite at-risk-shape. Subsequently, subregional HSMs (cam-type and lesser trochanter modes) were built, and associations with rHOA were examined by logistic regression. Subregional HSMs were further characterised, by examining associations with 3D-HSMs derived from concurrent hip CT scans. RESULTS: 4,098 participants were identified with hip DXAs and radiographs. Composite shapes from whole-hip HSMs revealed that lesser trochanter size and cam-type femoral head are related to rHOA. From sub-regional models, lesser trochanter mode (LTM)1 [OR 0.74; 95%CI 0.63.0.87] and cam-type mode (CTM)3 [OR 1.27; 1.13.1.42] were associated with rHOA, associations being similar to those for whole hip HSMs. 515 MrOS participants had hip DXAs and 3D-HSMs derived from hip CT scans. LTM1 was associated with 3D-HSMs that also represented a larger lesser trochanter [3D-HSM7 (beta (ß)-0.23;-0.33,-0.14) and 3D-HSM9 (ß0.36; 0.27.0.45)], and CTM3 with 3D-HSMs describing cam morphology [3D-HSM3 (ß-0.16;-0.25,-0.07) and 3D-HSM6 (ß 0.19; 0.10.0.28)]. CONCLUSION: Subregional SSM of hip DXA scans suggested larger lesser trochanter and cam morphology underlie associations between overall hip shape and rHOA. 3D hip modelling suggests our subregional SSMs represent true anatomical variations in hip shape, warranting further investigation.

Vitamin D and Reproductive Hormones Across the Menstrual Cycle.

STUDY QUESTION: How do the calciotropic hormones (25-hydroxyvitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH)) vary across the menstrual cycle and do cyclic patterns of reproductive hormones (estradiol, progesterone, LH, FSH) differ by vitamin D status? SUMMARY ANSWER: Calciotropic hormones vary minimally across the menstrual cycle; however, women with 25-hydroxyvitamin D below 30 ng/ml have lower mean estradiol across the menstrual cycle. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Prior human studies suggest that vitamin D status is associated with fecundability, but the mechanism is unknown. Exogenous estrogens and prolonged changes in endogenous estradiol (pregnancy or menopause) influence concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. In vitro, treatment with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D increases steroidogenesis in ovarian granulosa cells. There are little data about changes in calciotropic hormones across the menstrual cycle or cyclic patterns of reproductive hormones by categories of vitamin D status. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort study of 89 self-identified white women aged 18-44, across two menstrual cycles. Participants were a subset of the BioCycle Study, a community-based study conducted at the University of Buffalo, 2005-2007. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Eligible participants had self-reported regular menstrual cycles between 21 and 35 days and were not using hormonal contraception or vitamins. Early morning fasting blood samples were drawn at up to eight study visits per cycle. Visits were timed to capture information in all cycle phases. Serum samples for 89 women (N = 163 menstrual cycles) were analyzed for estradiol, progesterone, LH, FSH and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D). Variability in calciotropic hormones within and across menstrual cycles was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients and non-linear mixed models. Given the relative stability of the calciotropic hormones across the menstrual cycle, non-linear mixed models were used to examine differences in the cyclic patterns of estradiol, progesterone, LH and FSH by categories of each calciotropic hormone (split at the median). These models were conducted for all ovulatory cycles (N = 142 ovulatory menstrual cycles) and were adjusted for age, BMI (measured in clinic) and self-reported physical activity. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Median 25(OH)D concentration was 29.5 ng/ml (SD 8.4), and only 6% of women had vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/ml). The mean concentration of 25(OH)D did not differ between the luteal and follicular phase; however, both 1,25(OH)2D and iPTH showed small fluctuations across the menstrual cycle with the highest 1,25(OH)2D (and lowest iPTH) in the luteal phase. Compared with women who had mean 25(OH)D ≥30 ng/ml, women with lower 25(OH)D had 13.8% lower mean estradiol (95% confidence interval: -22.0, -4.7) and 10.8% lower free estradiol (95% CI: -0.07, -0.004). Additionally, compared to women with iPTH ≤36 pg/ml, women with higher concentrations of iPTH had 12.7% lower mean estradiol (95% CI: -18.7, -6.3) and 7.3% lower progesterone (95% CI: -13.3, -0.9). No differences in the cyclic pattern of any of the reproductive hormones were observed comparing cycles with higher and lower 1,25(OH)2D. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Women included in this study had self-reported 'regular' menstrual cycles and very few were found to have 25(OH)D deficiency. This limits our ability to examine cycle characteristics, anovulation and the effects of concentrations of the calciotropic hormones found in deficient individuals. Additionally, the results may not be generalizable to women with irregular cycles, other races, or populations with a higher prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: These findings support current clinical practice that does not time testing for vitamin D deficiency to the menstrual cycle phase. We find that women with lower vitamin D status (lower 25(OH)D or higher iPTH) have lower mean concentrations of estradiol across the menstrual cycle. Although this study cannot identify a mechanism of action, further in vitro work or clinical trials may help elucidate the biologic mechanisms linking calciotropic and reproductive hormones. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was supported by the Intramural Research Programs of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health (contract numbers: HHSN275200403394C, HHSN275201100002I and Task 1 HHSN27500001) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. There are no competing interests.

Pre-conception 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and fecundability.

STUDY QUESTION: Is pre-conception 25(OH)D associated with the per cycle probability of conception, i.e fecundability, in a prospective cohort study? SUMMARY ANSWER: There are suggestive associations of high 25(OH)D (at least 50 ng/ml) with increased fecundability and low 25(OH)D (<20 ng/ml) with reduced fecundability, but the estimates were imprecise. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Vitamin D has been associated with reproductive function and fertility in animal studies, but few human studies exist. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This community-based prospective cohort study included 522 women attempting to become pregnant between 2010 and 2016. The women completed online daily and monthly diaries until a positive home pregnancy test was observed or 12 months had elapsed. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The study included women from central North Carolina who were aged 30-44 with no history of infertility, with no more than 3 months of attempt time at recruitment. Women recorded vaginal bleeding so that the ongoing number of attempt cycles could be counted and used to quantify a woman's pregnancy attempt time. Blood collected at the study entry was analysed for 25(OH)D using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Associations with fecundability were estimated with a log-binomial discrete time-to-event model. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among 522 women, 257 conceived during the study. The mean age was 33 years and the mean 25(OH)D was 36 ng/ml. There was an estimated 10% higher fecundability with each 10 ng/ml increase in 25(OH)D (fecundability ratio (FR) 1.10, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.25). The suggestive dose-response association with the continuous measure of 25(OH)D was driven by women in the lowest and the highest categories of 25(OH)D. Compared to women with 25(OH)D of 30-40 ng/ml, women below 20 ng/ml had an estimated 45% reduction in fecundability (FR (CI): 0.55 (0.23, 1.32)), and women with at least 50 ng/ml had an estimated 35% increase in fecundability (FR (CI): 1.35 (0.95, 1.91)). Across these three categories (25(OH)D of <20 ng/ml, 30-40 ng/ml and > 50 ng/ml), the probability of taking longer than 6 months to conceive was, respectively, 51% (17%, 74%), 28% (17%, 39%) and 15% (10%, 37%). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: While the distribution of 25(OH)D was wide, the number of observed cycles with high 25(OH)D (N = 107) or low 25(OH)D (N = 56) was small. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings are consistent with prior reports of reduced fertility in women with 25(OH)D concentrations below the clinically defined deficiency level (20 ng/ml). Further studies are needed to evaluate the possible reproductive benefits of considerably higher 25(OH)D concentration (>50 ng/ml). STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under award numbers R00HD079659 and R01HD067683 and supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, under projects ES103086, ES049003 and ES044003. ClearBlue ovulation predictor kits were generously donated to AMZJ and AJW by Swiss Precision Diagnostics. Drs Wilcox and Jukic report non-financial support from Swiss Precision Diagnostics during the conduct of the study; Dr Jukic reports non-financial support from Theralogix, LLC, outside the submitted work. Otherwise there are no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

DXA-derived hip shape is related to osteoarthritis: findings from in the MrOS cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Statistical shape modelling (SSM) of radiographs has been used to explore relationships between altered joint shape and hip osteoarthritis (OA). We aimed to apply SSM to Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) hip scans, and examine associations between resultant hip shape modes (HSMs), radiographic hip OA (RHOA), and hip pain, in a large population based cohort. METHOD: SSM was performed on baseline hip DXA scans from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. Associations between the top ten HSMs, and prevalent RHOA from pelvic radiographs obtained 4.6 years later, were analysed in 4100 participants. RHOA was defined as Croft score ≥2. Hip pain was based on pain on walking, hip pain on examination, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC). RESULTS: The five HSMs associated with RHOA showed features of either pincer- or cam-type deformities. HSM 1 (increased pincer-type deformity) was positively associated with RHOA [1.23 (1.09, 1.39)] [odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI]. HSM 8 (reduced pincer-type deformity) was inversely associated with RHOA [0.79 (0.70, 0.89)]. HSM 10 (increased cam-type deformity) was positively associated with RHOA [1.21 (1.07, 1.37)]. HSM 3 and HSM 4 (reduced cam-type deformity) were inversely associated with RHOA [0.73 (0.65, 0.83) and 0.82 (0.73, 0.93), respectively]. HSM 3 was inversely related to pain on examination [0.84 (0.76, 0.92)] and walking [0.88, (0.81, 0.95)], and to WOMAC score [0.87 (0.80, 0.93)]. CONCLUSIONS: DXA-derived measures of hip shape are associated with RHOA, and to a lesser extent hip pain, possibly reflecting their role in the pathogenesis of hip OA.

The effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival and recurrence after curative rectal cancer surgery in patients who are histologically node negative after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether adjuvant chemotherapy will affect recurrence rate or disease-free and overall survival in patients with rectal adenocarcinoma who were staged with MRI node-positive disease (mrN+) preoperatively. These patients underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with curative rectal cancer surgery and their pathological staging was negative for nodal disease (ypN0). There is no consensus on the role of adjuvant chemotherapy in such patients. METHOD: Patients who received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and underwent curative rectal cancer surgery for rectal adenocarcinoma staged as [mrTxN+M0] on MRI staging and who on pathological staging were found to be [ypTxN0M0] were retrospectively identified from January 2008 December 2012 from two tertiary referral centres (Royal Marsden Hospital, London and Saint-Andre Hospital, Bordeaux). RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-three patients were recruited and, after propensity matching at a ratio of 2:1, n = 80 patients were divided to receive adjuvant (n = 28) or no adjuvant treatment (n = 52). A comparison of adjuvant chemotherapy vs no adjuvant therapy showed that the mean overall survival was 2.67 vs 3.60 years (P = 0.42) and disease-free survival was 2.27 vs 3.32 years (P = 0.14). CONCLUSION: This study found no significant difference in survival or disease recurrence between patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and patients who did not. There is no clear evidence to support or dismiss the use of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients who were node positive on preoperative MRI and node negative on histopathological staging. Further multicentre prospective randomized trials are needed to identify the appropriate treatment regime for this group of patients.

A systematic review of transabdominal levator division during abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (APER).

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the surgical technique, short-term oncological and perioperative outcomes for the transabdominal division of the levator ani muscles during abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (APER). METHODS: A systematic review was performed to identify studies reporting on transabdominal division of the levator ani during APER. A comprehensive literature search was performed using a combination of free-text terms and controlled vocabulary when applicable on the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library. The search period was from January 1945 to December 2015. The following search headings were used: "transabdominal", "transpelvic", "abdominal" or "pelvic" combined with either "levator" or "extralevator" and with "abdominoperineal". RESULTS: Nine publications were identified reporting on 99 participants. The male/female distribution was 1.44:1, respectively, and the mean age was 56.6 (30-77) years. All tumours were less than 5 cm from the anal verge. The preoperative radiological staging was T2 in 18% of cases, T3 in 53.5% and T4 in 28.5%. Transabdominal division of the levators was performed laparoscopically in 55 cases, robotically in 34 and open in 10. The mean operating time was 255 (177-640) min. Mean intraoperative blood loss was 140 (92-500) ml. There were no conversions to open. Circumferential resection margins were positive in two cases, and there was one intraoperative perforation. Mean post-operative length of stay was 9.3 (3-67) days. Follow-up (from 0 to 31 months) revealed 19 perineal wound infections, 15 cases of sexual dysfunction and 7 cases of urinary retention. There was no mortality and 1 readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Transabdominal division of the levators during APER is feasible and reproducible, with acceptable perioperative and good early oncological outcomes. Further comparative studies are needed.

Use of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and prevalent leiomyoma in young African American women.

STUDY QUESTION: Is use of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) a risk factor for or a protective factor against prevalent uterine leiomyoma? SUMMARY ANSWER: Ever use of DMPA was associated with a decreased risk (adjusted risk ratio (RR): 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6, 0.9) of prevalent leiomyoma in young African American women. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Although progesterone is associated with growth of leiomyoma, previous epidemiological studies have shown a protective association for DMPA use. These previous studies may have been biased by studying clinically diagnosed leiomyoma (DMPA may mask symptoms thus delaying diagnoses). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Cross sectional analysis of baseline data from a cohort study of 1696 African American women. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Community-based recruitment (e.g. letters, flyers, radio and TV announcements) were used to enroll African American women between 23 and 34 years old without a previous diagnosis of leiomyoma in the Metropolitan Detroit area. Extensive questionnaire data were used to determine DMPA use and screening ultrasound detected the presence of leiomyoma ≥0.5 cm in diameter. Relative risks with adjustment for covariates were calculated for the presence of leiomyoma based on ever use of DMPA as well as duration and recency of use. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among the 1696 volunteers who enrolled, 43% had used DMPA. Leiomyoma were detected in 17% of those who had ever used DMPA compared with 26% of those who had never used DMPA. The reduction in prevalence remained after adjustment for potential confounders and was highest among women who had used DMPA for more than 4 years (adjusted RR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3, 0.8). The reduction in risk was seen for women whose most recent use was up to 8 years prior to study enrollment. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The use of cross-sectional data means that the timing of initial fibroid development is not known, so the temporality of the association is uncertain. However in this sample of young women, most fibroids were small, suggesting that DMPA exposure may have occurred before leiomyoma development. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings are in agreement with previous epidemiological studies, but protected from the bias inherent in the use of clinically diagnosed leiomyoma. Although further studies will be needed to elucidate the mechanism, use of DMPA as a contraceptive appears to provide long lasting protection against uterine leiomyoma. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: No competing interests. This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, and in part by funds allocated for health research by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

A single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid presence and size is strongly predictive of future uterine procedure: 8-year follow-up of randomly sampled premenopausal women aged 35-49 years.

STUDY QUESTION: How well can a single baseline ultrasound assessment of fibroid burden (presence or absence of fibroids and size of largest, if present) predict future probability of having a major uterine procedure? SUMMARY ANSWER: During an 8-year follow-up period, the risk of having a major uterine procedure was 2% for those without fibroids and increased with fibroid size for those with fibroids, reaching 47% for those with fibroids ≥ 4 cm in diameter at baseline. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Uterine fibroids are a leading indication for hysterectomy. However, when fibroids are found, there are few available data to help clinicians advise patients about disease progression. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Women who were 35-49 years old were randomly selected from the membership of a large urban health plan; 80% of those determined to be eligible were enrolled and screened with ultrasound for fibroids ≥ 0.5 cm in diameter. African-American and white premenopausal participants who responded to at least one follow-up interview (N = 964, 85% of those eligible) constituted the study cohort. During follow-up (5822 person-years), participants self-reported any major uterine procedure (67% hysterectomies). Life-table analyses and Cox regression (with censoring for menopause) were used to estimate the risk of having a uterine procedure for women with no fibroids, small (<2 cm in diameter), medium (2-3.9 cm), and large fibroids (≥ 4 cm). Differences between African-American and white women, importance of a clinical diagnosis of fibroids prior to study enrollment, and the impact of submucosal fibroids on risk were investigated. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: There was a greater loss to follow-up for African-Americans than whites (19 versus 11%). For those with follow-up data, 64% had fibroids at baseline, 33% of whom had had a prior diagnosis. Of those with fibroids, 27% had small fibroids (<2 cm in diameter), 46% had medium (largest fibroid 2-3.9 cm in diameter), and 27% had large fibroids (largest ≥ 4 cm in diameter). Twenty-one percent had at least one submucosal fibroid. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Major uterine procedures were reported by 115 women during follow-up. The estimated risk of having a procedure in any given year of follow-up for those with fibroids compared with those without fibroids increased markedly with fibroid-size category (from 4-fold, confidence interval (CI) (1.4-11.1) for the small fibroids to 10-fold, CI (4.4-24.8) for the medium fibroids, to 27-fold, CI (11.5-65.2) for the large fibroids). This influence of fibroid size on risk did not differ between African-Americans and whites (P-value for interaction = 0.88). Once fibroid size at enrollment was accounted for, having a prior diagnosis at the time of ultrasound screening was not predictive of having a procedure. Exclusion of women with a submucosal fibroid had little influence on the results. The 8-year risk of a procedure based on lifetable analyses was 2% for women with no fibroids, 8, 23, and 47%, respectively, for women who had small, medium or large fibroids at enrollment. Given the strong association of fibroid size with subsequent risk of a procedure, these findings are unlikely to be due to chance. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Despite a large sample size, the number of women having procedures during follow-up was relatively small. Thus, covariates such as BMI, which were not important in our analyses, may have associations that were too small to detect with our sample size. Another limitation is that the medical procedures were self-reported. However, we attempted to retrieve medical records when participants agreed, and 77% of the total procedures reported were verified. Our findings are likely to be generalizable to other African-American and white premenopausal women in their late 30s and 40s, but other ethnic groups have not been studied. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Though further studies are needed to confirm and extend the results, our findings provide an initial estimate of disease progression that will be helpful to clinicians and their patients.

Short communication: a food-systems approach to assessing dairy product waste.

Concern about world population increase, food security, and the environmental burdens of food production have made food-waste reduction a social and environmental priority. In this context, the quantification of dairy product waste is especially difficult due to the varied means of disposal, by solid and liquid waste streams, and due to inclusion as an ingredient in many processed foods. In this study, food intake data from the Australian National Nutrition Survey (>13,000 participants; >4,500 food items) were disaggregated into basic foods and total national dairy product intake was expressed in whole-milk equivalents. This result was compared with total domestic milk supply, indicating a level of waste of 29% for dairy products in the Australian food system. With national food-waste reduction targets becoming increasingly common, reliable estimates of food waste at the national scale are important for goal setting, baseline reporting, and performance monitoring. For this purpose, the systems approach to assessing food waste demonstrated in this project is deemed to have advantages over other common methods of food-waste assessment, such as bin audits, waste diaries, and surveys.

Tubal ligation in relation to menopausal symptoms and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Local inflammation after tubal ligation may affect ovarian function and breast cancer risk. METHODS: We analysed tubal ligation, menopausal characteristics, and breast cancer risk in the Sister Study cohort (N=50,884 women). RESULTS: Tubal ligation was associated with hot flashes (hazard ratio (HR) 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.12) but not menopausal age (HR 0.99; 95% CI: 0.96-1.02). Tubal ligation did not have an impact on breast cancer overall (HR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.85-1.06), but had a suggested inverse relation with oestrogen receptor+/progesterone receptor+ invasive tumours (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.70-1.01), possibly because of subsequent hysterectomy/bilateral oophorectomy. CONCLUSION: Tubal ligation does not influence overall breast cancer risk.

Length of human pregnancy and contributors to its natural variation.

STUDY QUESTION: How variable is the length of human pregnancy, and are early hormonal events related to gestational length? SUMMARY ANSWER: Among natural conceptions where the date of conception (ovulation) is known, the variation in pregnancy length spanned 37 days, even after excluding women with complications or preterm births. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous studies of length of gestation have either estimated gestational age by last menstrual period (LMP) or ultrasound (both imperfect measures) or included pregnancies conceived through assisted reproductive technology. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The Early Pregnancy Study was a prospective cohort study (1982-85) that followed 130 singleton pregnancies from unassisted conception to birth, with detailed hormonal measurements through the conception cycle; 125 of these pregnancies were included in this analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We calculated the length of gestation beginning at conception (ovulation) in 125 naturally conceived, singleton live births. Ovulation, implantation and corpus luteum (CL) rescue pattern were identified with urinary hormone measurements. We accounted for events that artificially shorten the natural length of gestation (Cesarean delivery or labor induction, i.e. 'censoring') using Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional hazards models. We examined hormonal and other factors in relation to length of gestation. We did not have ultrasound information to compare with our gold standard measure. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The median time from ovulation to birth was 268 days (38 weeks, 2 days). Even after excluding six preterm births, the gestational length range was 37 days. The coefficient of variation was higher when measured by LMP (4.9%) than by ovulation (3.7%), reflecting the variability of time of ovulation. Conceptions that took longer to implant also took longer from implantation to delivery (P = 0.02). CL rescue pattern (reflecting ovarian response to implantation) was predictive (P = 0.006): pregnancies with a rapid progesterone rise were longer than those with delayed rise (a 12-day difference in the median gestational length). Mothers with longer gestations were older (P = 0.02), had longer pregnancies in other births (P < 0.0001) and were heavier at birth (P = 0.01). We did not see an association between the length of gestation and several factors that have been associated with gestational length in previous studies: body mass index, alcohol intake, parity or offspring sex. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The sample size was small and some exposures were rare, reducing power to detect weak associations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Human gestational length varies considerably even when measured exactly (from ovulation). An individual woman's deliveries tend to occur at similar gestational ages. Events in the first 2 weeks after conception are predictive of subsequent pregnancy length, and may suggest pathways underlying the timing of delivery. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. None of the authors has any conflict of interest to declare.

A subterminal satellite located adjacent to telomeres in chimpanzees is absent from the human genome.

One of the significant unresolved differences between the karyotypes of humans and African apes is the presence of positively staining G-bands at the ends of many chromosome arms in the chimpanzee and gorilla but absent from human chromosomes. Using a telomere anchored PCR strategy, we have isolated DNA from a subterminal satellite, composed of a 32 basepair A-T rich repeat, from the chimpanzee genome that hybridizes to all the additional terminal bands and at two interstitial sites. The satellite is more abundant in gorillas and is not detected in humans or orangutans. Furthermore, there is no similarity between other chimpanzee telomere-junction clones and human subterminal sequences, and therefore the organization of sequences adjacent to telomeres is very different between these closely related primates.

Towards generalised reference condition models for environmental assessment: a case study on rivers in Atlantic Canada.

Evaluation of the ecological status of river sites in Canada is supported by building models using the reference condition approach. However, geography, data scarcity and inter-operability constraints have frustrated attempts to monitor national-scale status and trends. This issue is particularly true in Atlantic Canada, where no ecological assessment system is currently available. Here, we present a reference condition model based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System approach with regional-scale applicability. To achieve this, we used biological monitoring data collected from wadeable streams across Atlantic Canada together with freely available, nationally consistent geographic information system (GIS) environmental data layers. For the first time, we demonstrated that it is possible to use data generated from different studies, even when collected using different sampling methods, to generate a robust predictive model. This model was successfully generated and tested using GIS-based rather than local habitat variables and showed improved performance when compared to a null model. In addition, ecological quality ratio data derived from the model responded to observed stressors in a test dataset. Implications for future large-scale implementation of river biomonitoring using a standardised approach with global application are presented.

Replicate DNA metabarcoding can discriminate seasonal and spatial abundance shifts in river macroinvertebrate assemblages.

The delivery of consistent and accurate fine-resolution data on biodiversity using metabarcoding promises to improve environmental assessment and research. Whilst this approach is a substantial improvement upon traditional techniques, critics note that metabarcoding data are suitable for establishing taxon occurrence, but not abundance. We propose a novel hierarchical approach to recovering abundance information from metabarcoding, and demonstrate this technique using benthic macroinvertebrates. To sample a range of abundance structures without introducing additional changes in composition, we combined seasonal surveys with fish-exclusion experiments at Catamaran Brook in northern New Brunswick, Canada. Five monthly surveys collected 31 benthic samples for DNA metabarcoding divided between caged and control treatments. A further six samples per survey were processed using traditional morphological identification for comparison. By estimating the probability of detecting a single individual, multispecies abundance models infer changes in abundance based on changes in detection frequency. Using replicate detections of 184 genera (and 318 species) from metabarcoding samples, our analysis identified changes in abundance arising from both seasonal dynamics and the exclusion of fish predators. Counts obtained from morphological samples were highly variable, a feature that limited the opportunity for more robust comparison, and emphasizing the difficulty standard methods also face to detect changes in abundance. Our approach is the first to demonstrate how quantitative estimates of abundance can be made using metabarcoding, both among species within sites as well as within species among sites. Many samples are required to capture true abundance patterns, particularly in streams where counts are highly variable, but few studies can afford to process entire samples. Our approach allows study of responses across whole communities, and at fine taxonomic resolution. We discuss how ecological studies can use additional sampling to capture changes in abundance at fine resolution, and how this can complement broad-scale biomonitoring using DNA metabarcoding.

First-trimester bleeding characteristics associate with increased risk of preterm birth: data from a prospective pregnancy cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prior evidence linking first-trimester bleeding with preterm birth (PTB, <37 weeks gestation) risk has been inconsistent and may be biased by subject selection and/or incomplete documentation of bleeding episodes for all participants. Prior studies have not carefully examined the role of bleeding characteristics in PTB risk. In the present study, we estimate the association between first-trimester bleeding and PTB in a non-clinical prospective cohort and test whether bleeding characteristics better predict risk. METHODS: Women were enrolled in Right from the Start (2000-2009), a prospective pregnancy cohort. Data about bleeding and bleeding characteristics were examined with logistic regression to assess association with PTB. RESULTS: Among 3978 pregnancies 344 were PTB and 3634 term. Bleeding was reported by 986 (26%) participants. After screening candidate confounders, only multiple gestations remained in the model. Bleeding associated with PTB [odds ratio (OR)(adjusted) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.80]. Risk did not vary by race/ethnicity. Compared with non-bleeders, PTB risk was higher for bleeding with red color (OR(adjusted) = 1.92, 95% CI, 1.32-2.82), for heavy episodes (OR(adjusted) = 2.40, 95% CI 1.18-4.88) and long duration (OR(adjusted) = 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.38). CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding associated with PTB was not confounded by common risk factors for bleeding or PTB. PTB risk was greatest for women with heavy bleeding episodes with long duration and red color and would suggest that combining women with different bleeding characteristics may affect the accuracy of risk assessment. These data suggest a candidate etiologic pathway for PTB and warrant further investigation of the biologic mechanisms.

Sample preparation and image acquisition using optical-reflective microscopy in the measurement of fiber orientation in thermoplastic composites.

A complete sample preparation procedure used to determine three-dimensional fiber orientation from optical micrographs of glass fiber-reinforced thermoplastic composites is presented. Considerations for elimination of irregularities in the elliptical footprints, contrast enhancement between fibers and surrounding polymer matrix, controlled-etching that allows the identification of small shadows where fiber recedes into the matrix, and topographical reconstruction of the elliptical footprint are described in the procedure. This procedure has produced high-quality optical micrographs employed to obtain accurate fiber orientation data for thermoplastic composites using the method of ellipses. The optimal definition of the nonelliptical footprints' borders allows an accurate measurement of orientation in small sampling areas.

Fecundability among women with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We assessed the effects of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes on fecundability (as manifest by increased time-to-pregnancy [TTP]) in a large cohort of pregnant women. METHODS: This study is based on the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Members of this large cohort were enrolled early in pregnancy and asked about TTP and other factors. Among the 58,004 women included in the analysis, we identified 221 cases of type 1 diabetes and 88 cases of type 2 diabetes using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. A logistic analogue of the proportional probability model, a Cox-like discrete-time model, was used to compute fecundability odds ratios (FORs) and 95% CI for type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, adjusted for maternal age and prepregnancy BMI. RESULTS: Compared with non-diabetic women, the adjusted FOR for women with type 1 diabetes was 0.76 (95% CI 0.64-0.89) and the adjusted FOR for women with type 2 diabetes was 0.64 (95% CI 0.48-0.84). These FORs did not change substantively and remained statistically significant after excluding women with irregular menstrual cycles and accounting for cycle length. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The results from the present study provide evidence of substantially decreased fecundability for women with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, even among those with a normal menstrual cycle.

The association of maternal factors with delayed implantation and the initial rise of urinary human chorionic gonadotrophin.

BACKGROUND Late implantation and the pattern of early rise in hCG have been associated with early pregnancy loss. We explored factors that might be predictive of these markers of poor embryonic health in spontaneously conceived pregnancies. METHODS Participants in the North Carolina Early Pregnancy Study collected daily first-morning urine specimens while attempting to conceive. Samples were assayed for estrogen and progesterone metabolites (to identify day of ovulation) and hCG (to detect conception). Data were available for 190 pregnancies, 48 of which ended in early loss (within 6 weeks of the last menstrual period). We used logistic regression to identify characteristics associated with late implantation (≥10 days post-ovulation). For pregnancies surviving at least 6 weeks (n= 142), we used linear mixed models to identify factors associated with variations in hCG rise in the first 7 days from detection. RESULTS Later implantation was associated with current maternal smoking [odds ratio (OR): 5.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-30] and with oocytes that were likely to have been fertilized late in their post-ovulatory lifespan (OR: 5.1; CI: 1.9-16). Older women had a faster rise in hCG (P= 0.01), as did women who had relatively late menarche (P for trend = 0.02). Women exposed in utero to diethylstilbestrol showed an unusual pattern of slow initial hCG rise followed by a fast increase, a pattern significantly different from that of unexposed women (P= 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Although limited by small numbers and infrequent exposures, our analyses suggest that a woman's exposures both early in life and at the time of pregnancy may influence early development of the conceptus.

In utero exposure to maternal smoking and women's risk of fetal loss in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort (MoBa).

BACKGROUND: Whether in utero exposure to tobacco smoke increases a woman's risk of fetal loss later in life is unknown, though data on childhood exposure suggest an association may exist. This study evaluated the association between in utero exposure to tobacco smoke and fetal loss in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), which enrolled ∼40% of the pregnant women in Norway from 1999 to 2008. METHODS: Information on exposure to tobacco smoke in utero, the woman's own smoking behavior during pregnancy and other factors was obtained by a questionnaire completed at ∼17 weeks of gestation. Subsequent late miscarriage (fetal death <20 weeks) and stillbirth (fetal death ≥ 20 weeks) were ascertained from the Norwegian Medical Birth Registry. This analysis included 76 357 pregnancies (MoBa data set version 4.301) delivered by the end of 2008; 59 late miscarriages and 270 stillbirths occurred. Cox proportional hazards models were fit for each outcome and for all fetal deaths combined. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of late miscarriage was 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-2.12] in women with exposure to maternal tobacco smoke in utero when compared with non-exposed women. The corresponding adjusted HR for stillbirths was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.85-1.44) and for all fetal deaths combined, it was 1.12 (95% CI, 0.89-1.43). CONCLUSIONS: The relatively wide CI around the HR for miscarriage reflected the limited power to detect an association, due to enrollment around 17 weeks of gestation. However, for in utero exposure to tobacco smoke and risk of stillbirth later in life, where the study power was adequate, our data provided little support for an association.

Regulation of folliculogenesis and the determination of ovulation rate in ruminants.

The paper presents an update of our 1993 model of ovarian follicular development in ruminants, based on knowledge gained from the past 15 years of research. The model addresses the sequence of events from follicular formation in fetal life, through the successive waves of follicular growth and atresia, culminating with the emergence of ovulatory follicles during reproductive cycles. The original concept of five developmental classes of follicles, defined primarily by their responses to gonadotrophins, is retained: primordial, committed, gonadotrophin-responsive, gonadotrophin-dependent and ovulatory follicles. The updated model has more extensive integration of the morphological, molecular and cellular events during folliculogenesis with systemic events in the whole animal. It also incorporates knowledge on factors that influence oocyte quality and the critical roles of the oocyte in regulating follicular development and ovulation rate. The original hypothetical mechanisms determining ovulation rate are retained but with some refinements; the enhanced viability of gonadotrophin-dependent follicles and increases in the number of gonadotrophin-responsive follicles by increases in the throughput of follicles to this stage of growth. Finally, we reexamine how these two mechanisms, which are thought not to be mutually exclusive, appear to account for most of the known genetic and environmental effects on ovulation rate.