Understanding Long-term Evolution and Predictors of Sequelae of Ebola Virus Disease Survivors in Guinea: A 48-Month Prospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study (PostEboGui).

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal analyses are needed to better understand long-term Ebola virus disease (EVD) sequelae. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and duration of sequelae and to identify risk factors associated with symptom occurrence among EVD survivors in Guinea. METHODS: We followed 802 EVD survivors over 48 months and recorded clinical symptoms with their start/end dates. Prevalence, incidence, and duration of sequelae were calculated. Risk factors associated with symptom occurrence were assessed using an extended Cox model for recurrent events. RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence and incidence of all symptoms decreased significantly over time, but sequelae remained present 48 months after Ebola treatment center discharge with a prevalence of 30.68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.40-39.96) for abdominal, 30.55% (95% CI 20.68-40.41) for neurologic, 5.80% (95% CI 1.96-9.65) for musculoskeletal, and 4.24% (95% CI 2.26-6.23) for ocular sequelae. Half of all patients (50.70%; 95% CI 47.26-54.14) complained of general symptoms 2 years' postdischarge and 25.35% (95% CI 23.63-27.07) 4 years' post-discharge. Hemorrhage (hazard ratio [HR], 2.70; P = .007), neurologic (HR 2.63; P = .021), and general symptoms (HR 0.34; P = .003) in the EVD acute phase were significantly associated with the further occurrence of ocular sequelae, whereas hemorrhage (HR 1.91; P = .046) and abdominal (HR 2.21; P = .033) symptoms were significantly associated with musculoskeletal sequelae. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide new insight into the long-term clinical complications of EVD and their significant association with symptoms in the acute phase, thus reinforcing the importance of regular, long-term follow-up for EVD survivors.

Temporal evolution of the humoral antibody response after Ebola virus disease in Guinea: a 60-month observational prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Insufficient long-term data are available on antibody kinetics in survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Likewise, few studies, with very small sample sizes, have investigated cross-reactions between Ebolavirus spp. In this study, we aimed to assess the humoral antibody response and its determinants in survivors of EVD and assess cross-reactivity of antibodies between diverse Ebolavirus spp. METHODS: In this observational, prospective cohort study, we collected blood samples from patients from three recruitment sites in Guinea included in the Postebogui study, and we assessed IgG antibody binding to recombinant glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and 40-kDa viral protein (VP40) of Zaire (EBOV), Bundibugyo (BDBV), and Sudan (SUDV) Ebolaviruses. Participants from the PostEbogui study, from whom we had at least one blood sample that could be tested for the presence of antibodies, were eligible for this analysis. Patients in the PostEbogui study were assessed clinically at inclusion, 1 month and 3 months later, and subsequently every 6 months for up to 60 months after discharge from the Ebola treatment centre. We explored predictors of glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and VP40 antibody concentrations through a linear mixed model. A logistic mixed model was done to estimate the probability of seropositivity and associated determinants. We assessed cross-reactivity by use of hierarchical cluster analysis. FINDINGS: Of the 802 patients included in the Postebogui study, 687 were included in our analyses. 310 (45%) patients were men and 377 (55%) were women, with an overall median age at the time of the first blood sample of 27·3 years (IQR 19·5-38·2). We observed an overall significant decrease over time of EBOV antibodies, with antibodies against nucleoproteins decreasing more rapidly. At 60 months after discharge from the Ebola treatment centre, the probability of having antibodies against glycoproteins was 76·2% (95% CI 67·2-83·3), against nucleoproteins was 59·4% (46·3-71·3), and against VP40 was 60·9% (51·4-69·8). Persistence of EBOV RNA in semen was associated with higher concentrations of IgG antibodies against nucleoprotein EBOV antigens. Individually, we observed in some survivors an antibody wax-and-wane pattern. The proportion of cross-reactions was highest between glycoproteins from Kissidougou and Mayinga EBOV strains (94·5%, 95% CI 92·5-96·1), followed by EBOV VP40 and BDBV VP40 (88·3%, 85·7-90·6), and EBOV VP40 and SUDV VP40 (83·3%, 80·3-86·1). INTERPRETATION: The probability for survivors of EVD to have antibodies against one or more EBOV antigens remained high, although approximately 25% of survivors had undetectable antibodies, which could have implications, such as a possible decreasing population immunity, for future Ebola outbreaks in the same region. FUNDING: Reacting-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, and Montpellier Université d'Excellence.

Prevalence of infection among asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic contact persons exposed to Ebola virus in Guinea: a retrospective, cross-sectional observational study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of Ebola virus infection among people who have been in contact with patients with Ebola virus disease remains unclear, but is essential to understand the dynamics of transmission. This study aimed to identify risk factors for seropositivity and to estimate the prevalence of Ebola virus infection in unvaccinated contact persons. METHODS: In this retrospective, cross-sectional observational study, we recruited individuals between May 12, 2016, and Sept 8, 2017, who had been in physical contact with a patient with Ebola virus disease, from four medical centres in Guinea (Conakry, Macenta, N'zérékoré, and Forécariah). Contact persons had to be 7 years or older and not diagnosed with Ebola virus disease. Participants were selected through the Postebogui survivors' cohort. We collected self-reported information on exposure and occurrence of symptoms after exposure using a questionnaire, and tested antibody response against glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, and 40-kDa viral protein of Zaire Ebola virus by taking a blood sample. The prevalence of Ebola virus infection was estimated with a latent class model. FINDINGS: 1721 contact persons were interviewed and given blood tests, 331 of whom reported a history of vaccination so were excluded, resulting in a study population of 1390. Symptoms were reported by 216 (16%) contact persons. The median age of participants was 26 years (range 7-88) and 682 (49%) were male. Seropositivity was identified in 18 (8·33%, 95% CI 5·01-12·80) of 216 paucisymptomatic contact persons and 39 (3·32%, 5·01-12·80) of 1174 (2-4) asymptomatic individuals (p=0·0021). Seropositivity increased with participation in burial rituals (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·30, 95% CI 1·21-4·17; p=0·0079) and exposure to blood or vomit (aOR 2·15, 1·23-3·91; p=0·0090). Frequency of Ebola virus infection varied from 3·06% (95% CI 1·84-5·05) in asymptomatic contact persons who did not participate in burial rituals to 5·98% (2·81-8·18) in those who did, and from 7·17% (3·94-9·09) in paucisymptomatic contact persons who did not participate in burial rituals to 17·16% (12·42-22·31) among those who did. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a new assessment of the prevalence of Ebola virus infection among contact persons according to exposure, provides evidence for the occurrence of paucisymptomatic cases, and reinforces the importance of closely monitoring at-risk contact persons. FUNDING: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Reacting, the French Ebola Task Force, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, and Montpellier University Of Excellence-University of Montpellier.