Calendar-period trends in cervical precancer and cancer diagnoses since the introduction of human papillomavirus and cytology co-testing into routine cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California.

OBJECTIVES: The longer-term impact of introducing human papillomavirus (HPV) testing into routine cervical cancer screening on precancer and cancer rates by histologic type has not been well described. Calendar trends in diagnoses were examined using data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California, which introduced triennial HPV and cytology co-testing in 2003 for women aged ≥30 years. METHODS: We examined trends in cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 [CIN3] and adenocarcinoma in situ [AIS]) and cancer (squamous cell carcinoma [SCC] and adenocarcinoma [ADC]) diagnoses per 1000 screened during 2003-2018. We examined ratios of squamous vs. glandular diagnoses (SCC:ADC and CIN3:AIS). RESULTS: CIN3 and AIS diagnoses increased approximately 2% and 3% annually, respectively (ptrend < 0.001 for both). While SCC diagnoses decreased by 5% per annually (ptrend < 0.001), ADC diagnoses did not change. These patterns were generally observed within each age group (30-39, 40-49, and 50-64 years). ADC diagnoses per 1000 screened did not change even among those who underwent co-testing starting in 2003-2006. SCC:ADC decreased from approximately 2.5:1 in 2003-2006 to 1.3:1 in 2015-2018 while the CIN3:AIS remained relatively constant, ∼10:1. CONCLUSIONS: Since its introduction at KPNC, co-testing increased the detection of CIN3 over time, which likely caused a subsequent reduction of SCC. However, there has been no observed decrease in ADC. One possible explanation for lack of effectiveness against ADC is the underdiagnosis of AIS. Novel strategies to identify and treat women at high risk of ADC need to be developed and clinically validated.

Squamocolumnar junction visibility, age, and implications for cervical cancer screening programs.

Visual assessment is currently used for primary screening or triage of screen-positive individuals in cervical cancer screening programs. Most guidelines recommend screening and triage up to at least age 65 years old. We examined cervical images from participants in three National Cancer Institute funded cervical cancer screening studies: ALTS (2864 participants recruited between 1996 to 1998) in the United States (US), NHS (7548 in 1993) in Costa Rica, and the Biopsy study (684 between 2009 to 2012) in the US. Specifically, we assessed the visibility of the squamocolumnar junction (SCJ), which is the susceptible zone for precancer/cancer by age, as reported by colposcopist reviewers either at examination or review of cervical images. The visibility of the SCJ declined substantially with age: by the late 40s the majority of people screened had at most partially visible SCJ. On longitudinal analysis, the change in SCJ visibility from visible to not visible was largest for participants from ages 40-44 in ALTS and 50-54 in NHS. Of note, in the Biopsy study, the live colposcopic exam resulted in significantly higher SCJ visibility as compared to review of static images (Weighted kappa 0.27 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.21, 0.33), Asymmetry chi-square P-value<0.001). Lack of SCJ visibility leads to increased difficulty in diagnosis and management of cervical precancers. Therefore, cervical cancer screening programs reliant on visual assessment might consider lowering the upper age limit for screening if there are not adequately trained personnel and equipment to evaluate and manage participants with inadequately visible SCJ.

The combined finding of HPV 16, 18, or 45 and cytologic Atypical Glandular Cells (AGC) indicates a greatly elevated risk of in situ and invasive cervical adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cervical screening has not effectively controlled cervical adenocarcinoma (AC). Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is recommended for cervical screening but the optimal management of HPV-positive individuals to prevent AC remains a question. Cytology and HPV typing are two triage options to predict the risk of AC. We combined two potential biomarkers (atypical glandular cell, AGC, cytology and HPV-types 16, 18, or 45) to assess their joint effect on detecting AC. METHODS: Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) used triennial co-testing with cytology and HPV testing (positive/negative) for routine cervical screening between 2003 and 2020. HPV typing of a sample of residual HPV test specimens was performed on a separate cohort selected from KPNC (Persistence and Progression, PaP, cohort). We compared risk of prevalent and incident histologic AC/AIS (adenocarcinoma in situ) associated with preceding combinations of cytologic results and HPV typing. Risk of squamous cell cancer (SCC)/cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (SCC/CIN3) was also included for comparison. RESULTS: Among HPV-positive individuals in PaP cohort, 99% of prevalent AC and 96% of AIS were linked to HPV-types 16, 18, or 45 (denoted HPV 16/18/45). Although rare (0.09% of screening population), the concurrent detection of HPV 16/18/45 with AGC cytology predicted a highly elevated relative risk of underlying histologic AC/AIS; the absolute risk of diagnosing AC/AIS was 12% and odds ratio (OR) was 1341 (95%CI:495-3630) compared to patients with other high-risk HPV types and normal cytology. Cumulatively (allowing non-concurrent results), approximately one-third of the AC/AIS cases ever had HPV 16/18/45 and AGC cytology (OR = 1785; 95%CI:872-3656). AGC was not as strongly associated with SCC/CIN3. CONCLUSION: Detection of HPV 16/18/45 positivity elevates risk of adenocarcinoma, particularly if AGC cytology is also found.

Different human papillomavirus types share early natural history transitions in immunocompetent women.

Necessary stages of cervical carcinogenesis include acquisition of a carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) type, persistence associated with the development of precancerous lesions, and invasion. Using prospective data from immunocompetent women in the Guanacaste HPV Natural History Study (NHS), the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS) and the Costa Rica HPV Vaccine Trial (CVT), we compared the early natural history of HPV types to inform transition probabilities for health decision models. We excluded women with evidence of high-grade cervical abnormalities at any point during follow-up and restricted the analysis to incident infections in all women and prevalent infections in young women (aged <30 years). We used survival approaches accounting for interval-censoring to estimate the time to clearance distribution for 20 529 HPV infections (64% were incident and 51% were carcinogenic). Time to clearance was similar across HPV types and risk classes (HPV16, HPV18/45, HPV31/33/35/52/58, HPV 39/51/56/59 and noncarcinogenic HPV types); and by age group (18-29, 30-44 and 45-54 years), among carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic infections. Similar time to clearance across HPV types suggests that relative prevalence can predict relative incidence. We confirmed that there was a uniform linear association between incident and prevalent infections for all HPV types within each study cohort. In the absence of progression to precancer, we observed similar time to clearance for incident infections across HPV types and risk classes. A singular clearance function for incident HPV infections has important implications for the refinement of microsimulation models used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of novel prevention technologies.

The development of "automated visual evaluation" for cervical cancer screening: The promise and challenges in adapting deep-learning for clinical testing: Interdisciplinary principles of automated visual evaluation in cervical screening.

There is limited access to effective cervical cancer screening programs in many resource-limited settings, resulting in continued high cervical cancer burden. Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is increasingly recognized to be the preferable primary screening approach if affordable due to superior long-term reassurance when negative and adaptability to self-sampling. Visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) is an inexpensive but subjective and inaccurate method widely used in resource-limited settings, either for primary screening or for triage of HPV-positive individuals. A deep learning (DL)-based automated visual evaluation (AVE) of cervical images has been developed to help improve the accuracy and reproducibility of VIA as assistive technology. However, like any new clinical technology, rigorous evaluation and proof of clinical effectiveness are required before AVE is implemented widely. In the current article, we outline essential clinical and technical considerations involved in building a validated DL-based AVE tool for broad use as a clinical test.

Comparison of accuracy and reproducibility of colposcopic impression based on a single image versus a two-minute time series of colposcopic images.

OBJECTIVE: Colposcopy is an important part of cervical screening/management programs. Colposcopic appearance is often classified, for teaching and telemedicine, based on static images that do not reveal the dynamics of acetowhitening. We compared the accuracy and reproducibility of colposcopic impression based on a single image at one minute after application of acetic acid versus a time-series of 17 sequential images over two minutes. METHODS: Approximately 5000 colposcopic examinations conducted with the DYSIS colposcopic system were divided into 10 random sets, each assigned to a separate expert colposcopist. Colposcopists first classified single two-dimensional images at one minute and then a time-series of 17 sequential images as 'normal,' 'indeterminate,' 'high grade,' or 'cancer'. Ratings were compared to histologic diagnoses. Additionally, 5 colposcopists reviewed a subset of 200 single images and 200 time series to estimate intra- and inter-rater reliability. RESULTS: Of 4640 patients with adequate images, only 24.4% were correctly categorized by single image visual assessment (11% of 64 cancers; 31% of 605 CIN3; 22.4% of 558 CIN2; 23.9% of 3412 < CIN2). Individual colposcopist accuracy was low; Youden indices (sensitivity plus specificity minus one) ranged from 0.07 to 0.24. Use of the time-series increased the proportion of images classified as normal, regardless of histology. Intra-rater reliability was substantial (weighted kappa = 0.64); inter-rater reliability was fair ( weighted kappa = 0.26). CONCLUSION: Substantial variation exists in visual assessment of colposcopic images, even when a 17-image time series showing the two-minute process of acetowhitening is presented. We are currently evaluating whether deep-learning image evaluation can assist classification.

A comparison of high-grade cervical abnormality risks in women living with and without human immunodeficiency virus undergoing routine cervical-cancer screening.

As the US moves increasingly towards using human papillomavirus (HPV) testing with or without concurrent cytology for cervical cancer screening, it is unknown what the corresponding risks are following a screening result for women living with HIV (WLWH), which will dictate the optimal clinical follow-up. Therefore, using medical records data from Kaiser Permanente Northern California, which introduced triennial HPV and cytology co-testing in women aged 30-64 years in 2003, we compared risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN2) or more severe diagnoses (CIN2+) in women not known to have HIV (HIV[-] women) (n = 67,488) frequency matched 111:1 on age and year of the first co-test to the 608 WLWH (n = 608). WLWH were more likely to test HPV positive (20.2% vs. 6.5%, p < 0.001) and have non-normal cytology (14.1% vs. 4.1%, p < 0.001) than HIV[-] women. Five-year CIN2+ risks for all WLWH and HIV[-] women were 3.5% (95%CI = 2.0-5.0%) and 1.6% (95%CI = 1.5-1.8%) (p = 0.01), respectively. Five-year CIN2+ risks for WLWH with positive HPV and non-normal cytology, positive HPV and normal cytology, negative HPV and non-normal cytology, and negative HPV and normal cytology were 24.9% (95%CI = 13.4-36.4%), 3.0% (95%CI = 0.0-7.4%), 3.6 (95%CI = 0.0-9.8%) and 0.3% (95%CI = 0.0-0.8%), respectively. Corresponding 5-year CIN2+ risks for HIV[-] women were 26.6% (95%CI = 24.6-28.7%), 8.5% (95%CI = 7.2-9.9%), 1.9% (95%CI = 1.0-2.8%), and 0.5% (95%CI = 0.4-0.6%), respectively. Thus, in this healthcare setting, the main cause in overall CIN2+ risk differences between WLWH and HIV[-] women was the former was more likely to screen positive and once the screening result is known, it may be reasonable to manage both populations similarly.

Contribution of Etiologic Cofactors to CIN3+ Risk Among Women With Human Papillomavirus-Positive Screening Test Results.

OBJECTIVE: The US screening and management guidelines for cervical cancer are based on the absolute risk of precancer estimated from large clinical cohorts and trials. Given the widespread transition toward screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, it is important to assess which additional factors to include in clinical risk assessment to optimize management of HPV-infected women. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from HPV-infected women, ages 30-65 years, in the National Cancer Institute-Kaiser Permanente Northern California Persistence and Progression study. We estimated the influence of HPV risk group, cytology result, and selected cofactors on immediate risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or higher (CIN 3+) among 16,094 HPV-positive women. Cofactors considered included, age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use. RESULTS: Human papillomavirus risk group and cytology test result were strongly correlated with CIN 3+ risk. After considering cytology and HPV risk group, other cofactors (age, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, and hormonal contraceptive use) had minimal impact on CIN 3+ risk and did not change recommended management based on accepted risk thresholds. We had insufficient data to assess the impact of long-duration heavy smoking, parity, history of sexually transmitted infection, or immunosuppression. CONCLUSIONS: In our study at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California, the risk of CIN 3+ was determined mainly by HPV risk group and cytology results, with other cofactors having limited impact in adjusted analyses. This supports the use of HPV and cytology results in risk-based management guidelines.

The relationship of human papillomavirus and cytology co-testing results with endometrial and ovarian cancer diagnoses.

BACKGROUND: To investigate whether routine cervical screening using human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology co-testing effectively identifies women with endometrial (EC) or ovarian (OvC) cancer. METHODS: In 2003, Kaiser Permanente Northern California implemented triennial co-testing in women aged ≥30 years. Index screening results (n = 2,385,729) were linked to subsequent EC (n = 3434) and OvC (n = 1113) diagnoses from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2017. EC were categorized as type 1 or 2, and, selectively, EC and OvC diagnoses were stratified on whether symptoms were present at the time of the co-test. Fractions and absolute risks of EC or OvC of each co-testing result were calculated. RESULTS: Most EC (82.18%) and OvC (88.68%) were preceded by a negative HPV and negative cytology co-test. More EC were preceded by atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or more severe (ASC-US+) cytology and negative HPV test (n = 290) (8.44% of EC) compared to a negative cytology and a positive HPV test (n = 31) (0.89% of EC) (p < 0.001). The absolute risk of any EC diagnosis following ASC-US+ and negative HPV test was 0.48%. Atypical glandular cells (AGC) cytology and a negative HPV result preceded 6.92% of any EC diagnosis, with an absolute risk of 4.02%, but preceded only 1.13% of type 2 EC cases, with an absolute risk of 0.24%, in asymptomatic women. AGC cytology and a negative HPV result preceded 1.44% of OvC, with an absolute risk of 0.28%. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal cervical screening tests, even AGC cytology, rarely precedes and poorly predict women with EC or OvC.

A demonstration of automated visual evaluation of cervical images taken with a smartphone camera.

We examined whether automated visual evaluation (AVE), a deep learning computer application for cervical cancer screening, can be used on cervix images taken by a contemporary smartphone camera. A large number of cervix images acquired by the commercial MobileODT EVA system were filtered for acceptable visual quality and then 7587 filtered images from 3221 women were annotated by a group of gynecologic oncologists (so the gold standard is an expert impression, not histopathology). We tested and analyzed on multiple random splits of the images using two deep learning, object detection networks. For all the receiver operating characteristics curves, the area under the curve values for the discrimination of the most likely precancer cases from least likely cases (most likely controls) were above 0.90. These results showed that AVE can classify cervix images with confidence scores that are strongly associated with expert evaluations of severity for the same images. The results on a small subset of images that have histopathologic diagnoses further supported the capability of AVE for predicting cervical precancer. We examined the associations of AVE severity score with gynecologic oncologist impression at all regions where we had a sufficient number of cases and controls, and the influence of a woman's age. The method was found generally resilient to regional variation in the appearance of the cervix. This work suggests that using AVE on smartphones could be a useful adjunct to health-worker visual assessment with acetic acid, a cervical cancer screening method commonly used in low- and middle-resource settings.

A study of the risks of CIN3+ detection after multiple rounds of HPV testing: Results of the 15-year cervical cancer screening experience at Kaiser Permanente Northern California.

Many countries are transitioning to HPV testing for cervical cancer screening, despite a lack of long-term experience. To anticipate multi-round screening performance, we analyzed 15-year HPV testing results at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We evaluated HPV test result patterns among women aged 30-64 undergoing triennial HPV/cytology cotesting at KPNC during 2003-2018. We calculated incidence rates and proportion of CIN3+ diagnoses associated with the most frequent HPV testing patterns overall and stratified by age. From 2003 to 2018, a total of 1,361,581 women had a valid HPV test result, and 7,087 were diagnosed with CIN3+. Incidence rates of CIN3+ after HPV positivity were lowest when HPV detection was new and highest in women with prevalent infections (770 vs. 13,910/100,000 person-years). Repeat test negativity reduced subsequent incidence rates of CIN3+ to extremely low levels (18/100,000 person-years following four consecutive negative results). For mixed patterns of positivity/negativity, the recency and frequency of positive tests were associated with increased rates of CIN3+ diagnosis. Most CIN3+ cases (76%) were diagnosed in women who were positive at baseline (the first known positive HPV result); 16% were attributed to apparent newly detected infections and 3% to possible reappearing infections. These results corroborate previous findings that current HPV positivity, particularly when prevalent rather than new, is associated with the highest rates of CIN3+. In a screening program implementing HPV testing, most CIN3+ is detected at the first HPV positive test.

Association of HPV35 with cervical carcinogenesis among women of African ancestry: Evidence of viral-host interaction with implications for disease intervention.

HPV35 has been found in only ∼2% of invasive cervical cancers (ICC) worldwide but up to 10% in Sub-Saharan Africa, warranting further investigation and consideration of impact on preventive strategies. We studied HPV35 and ethnicity, in relation to the known steps in cervical carcinogenesis, using multiple large epidemiologic studies in the U.S. and internationally. Combining five U.S. studies, we measured HPV35 positivity and, in Northern California, observed HPV35 type-specific population prevalence and estimated 5-year risk of developing precancer when HPV35-positive. HPV35 genetic variation was examined for differences in carcinogenicity in 1053 HPV35+ cervical specimens from a U.S. cohort and an international collection. African-American women had more HPV35 (12.1% vs 5.1%, P < .001) and more HPV35-associated precancers (7.4% vs 2.1%, P < .001) compared to other ethnicities. Precancer risks after HPV35 infection did not vary by ethnicity (global P = .52). The HPV35 A2 sublineage showed an increased association with precancer/cancer in African-Americans (OR = 5.6 vs A1, 95% CI = 1.3-24.8) and A2 was more prevalent among ICC in Africa than other world regions (41.9% vs 10.4%, P < .01). Our analyses support a strong link between HPV35 and cervical carcinogenesis in women of African ancestry. Current HPV vaccines cover the majority of cervical precancer/cancer across all ethnic groups; additional analyses are required to determine whether the addition of HPV35 to the already highly effective nine-valent HPV vaccine would provide better protection for women in Africa or of African ancestry.

Risk Estimates Supporting the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines.

The 2019 American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines for the management of cervical cancer screening abnormalities recommend 1 of 6 clinical actions (treatment, optional treatment or colposcopy/biopsy, colposcopy/biopsy, 1-year surveillance, 3-year surveillance, 5-year return to regular screening) based on the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cancer (CIN 3+) for the many different combinations of current and recent past screening results. This article supports the main guidelines presentation by presenting and explaining the risk estimates that supported the guidelines. METHODS: From 2003 to 2017 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), 1.5 million individuals aged 25 to 65 years were screened with human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytology cotesting scheduled every 3 years. We estimated immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ for combinations of current test results paired with history of screening test and colposcopy/biopsy results. RESULTS: Risk tables are presented for different clinical scenarios. Examples of important results are highlighted; for example, the risk posed by most current abnormalities is greatly reduced if the prior screening round was HPV-negative. The immediate and 5-year risks of CIN 3+ used to decide clinical management are shown. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk-based guidelines present recommendations for the management of abnormal screening test and histology results; the key risk estimates supporting guidelines are presented in this article. Comprehensive risk estimates are freely available online at https://CervixCa.nlm.nih.gov/RiskTables.

A Study of Partial Human Papillomavirus Genotyping in Support of the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines.

INTRODUCTION: The 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines include recommendations for partial human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping in management of abnormal cervical cancer screening results. The guidelines are based on matching estimates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3+ risk to consensus clinical action thresholds. In support of the guidelines, this analysis addresses the risks predicted by individual identification of HPV 16 and HPV 18. METHODS: Risk estimates were drawn from a subset of women in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California screening program, whose residual cervical specimens were HPV typed as part of the HPV Persistence and Progression study. We calculated risk of CIN 3+ to assess how identification of HPV 16, HPV 18, or 12 other "high-risk" HPV types would influence recommended clinical management of new abnormal screening results, taking into account current cytologic results and recent screening history. Immediate and/or 5-year risks of CIN 3+ were matched to clinical actions identified in the guidelines. RESULTS: Identification of HPV 16 at the first visit including HPV testing elevated immediate risk of diagnosing CIN 3+ sufficiently to mandate colposcopic referral even when cytology was Negative for Intraepithelial Lesions or Malignancy and to support a preference for treatment of cytologic high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion. HPV 18 less clearly elevated CIN 3+ risk. CONCLUSIONS: Identification of HPV 16 clearly mandated consideration in clinical management of new abnormal screening results. HPV 18 positivity must be considered as a special situation because of established disproportionate risk of invasive cancer. More detailed genotyping and use beyond initial management will be considered in guideline updates.

Validation of a Human Papillomavirus (HPV) DNA Cervical Screening Test That Provides Expanded HPV Typing.

As cervical cancer screening shifts from cytology to human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, a major question is the clinical value of identifying individual HPV types. We aimed to validate Onclarity (Becton Dickinson Diagnostics, Sparks, MD), a nine-channel HPV test recently approved by the FDA, by assessing (i) the association of Onclarity types/channels with precancer/cancer; (ii) HPV type/channel agreement between the results of Onclarity and cobas (Roche Molecular Systems, Pleasanton, CA), another FDA-approved test; and (iii) Onclarity typing for all types/channels compared to typing results from a research assay (linear array [LA]; Roche). We compared Onclarity to histopathology, cobas, and LA. We tested a stratified random sample (n = 9,701) of discarded routine clinical specimens that had tested positive by Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2; Qiagen, Germantown, MD). A subset had already been tested by cobas and LA (n = 1,965). Cervical histopathology was ascertained from electronic health records. Hierarchical Onclarity channels showed a significant linear association with histological severity. Onclarity and cobas had excellent agreement on partial typing of HPV16, HPV18, and the other 12 types as a pool (sample-weighted kappa value of 0.83); cobas was slightly more sensitive for HPV18 and slightly less sensitive for the pooled high-risk types. Typing by Onclarity showed excellent agreement with types and groups of types identified by LA (kappa values from 0.80 for HPV39/68/35 to 0.97 for HPV16). Onclarity typing results corresponded well to histopathology and to an already validated HPV DNA test and could provide additional clinical typing if such discrimination is determined to be clinically desirable.

Low Risk of Cervical Cancer/Precancer Among Most Women Under Surveillance Postcolposcopy.

OBJECTIVE: To inform impending postcolposcopy guidelines, this analysis examined the subsequent risk of CIN 3+ among women with a grade lower than CIN 2 (< CIN 2) colposcopy results, taking into account the referring results that brought them to colposcopy and cotest results postcolposcopy. METHODS: We analyzed 107,005 women from 25 to 65 years old, recommended for colposcopy at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. We estimated absolute risks of CIN 3+ among women: (1) recommended for colposcopy (precolposcopy), (2) following colposcopy and with histology results < CIN 2 (postcolposcopy), and (3) with cotest results 12 months after a < CIN 2 colposcopy (return cotest). RESULTS: After colposcopy showing < CIN 2 (n = 69,790; 87% of the women at colposcopy), the 1-year risk of CIN 3+ was 1.2%, compared with 6.3% at the time of colposcopy recommendation. Negative cotest results 1 year after colposcopy identified a large group (37.1%) of women whose risk of CIN 3+ (i.e., <0.2% at 3 years after postcolposcopy cotest) was comparable with women with normal cytology in the screening population. These risks are consistent with current guidelines recommending repeat cotesting 12 months after colposcopy < CIN 2 and a 3-year return for women with a negative postcolposcopy cotest. CONCLUSIONS: Most women are at low risk of subsequent CIN 3+ after a colposcopy showing < CIN 2, especially those who are human papillomavirus-negative postcolposcopy, consistent with current management guidelines for repeat testing intervals. Before the finalizing the upcoming guidelines, we will consider additional rounds of postcolposcopy cotesting.

Assessment of a New Lower-Cost Real-Time PCR Assay for Detection of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus: Useful for Cervical Screening in Limited-Resource Settings?

Inexpensive and easy-to-perform human papillomavirus (HPV) tests are needed for primary cervical cancer screening in lower-resource regions. In a convenience sample of 516 residual exfoliative cervical specimens from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California and U.S. National Cancer Institute Persistence and Progression Study, we assessed the agreement and clinical performance of a simple, inexpensive real-time PCR assay for the detection of 13 carcinogenic HPV types (the H13 assay; Hybribio, Hong Kong) that is marketed in limited-resource settings compared to previous testing by the Hybrid Capture 2 assay (HC2; Qiagen, Germantown, MD) and the Onclarity assay (BD Diagnostics, Sparks, MD). The test set was chosen to include many HPV-positive specimens. The reference standard was a combination of HC2 and Onclarity results for HPV detection and histologic diagnosis of controls (less than cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 [

Why does cervical cancer occur in a state-of-the-art screening program?

BACKGROUND: The goal of cervical screening is to detect and treat precancers before some become cancer. We wanted to understand why, despite state-of-the-art methods, cervical cancers occured in relationship to programmatic performance at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), where >1,000,000 women aged ≥30years have undergone cervical cancer screening by triennial HPV and cytology cotesting since 2003. METHODS: We reviewed clinical histories preceding cervical cancer diagnoses to assign "causes" of cancer. We calculated surrogate measures of programmatic effectiveness (precancers/(precancers and cancers)) and diagnostic yield (precancers and cancers per 1000 cotests), overall and by age at cotest (30-39, 40-49, and ≥50years). RESULTS: Cancer was rare and found mainly in a localized (treatable) stage. Of 623 cervical cancers with at least one preceding or concurrent cotest, 360 (57.8%) were judged to be prevalent (diagnosed at a localized stage within one year or regional/distant stage within two years of the first cotest). Non-compliance with recommended screening and management preceded 9.0% of all cancers. False-negative cotests/sampling errors (HPV and cytology negative), false-negative histologic diagnoses, and treatment failures preceded 11.2%, 9.0%, and 4.3%, respectively, of all cancers. There was significant heterogeneity in the causes of cancer by histologic category (p<0.001 for all; p=0.002 excluding prevalent cases). Programmatic effectiveness (95.3%) and diagnostic yield were greater for squamous cell versus adenocarcinoma histology (p<0.0001) and both decreased with older ages (ptrend<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A state-of-the-art intensive screening program results in very few cervical cancers, most of which are detected early by screening. Screening may become less efficient at older ages.

Risks of CIN 2+, CIN 3+, and Cancer by Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Status: The Foundation of Risk-Based Cervical Screening Guidelines.

OBJECTIVES: The next round of the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP)-sponsored cervical cancer screening and management guidelines will recommend clinical actions based on risk, rather than test-based algorithms. This article gives preliminary risk estimates for the screening setting, showing combinations of the 2 most important predictors, human papillomavirus (HPV) status and cytology result. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Among 1,262,713 women aged 25 to 77 years co-tested with HC2 (Qiagen) and cytology at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, we estimated 0-5-year cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2+, CIN 3+, and cancer for combinations of cytology (negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy [NILM], atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US], low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL], atypical squamous cells cannot exclude HSIL [ASC-H], high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [HSIL], atypical glandular cells [AGC]) and HPV status. RESULTS: Ninety percent of screened women had HPV-negative NILM and an extremely low risk of subsequent cancer. Five-year risks of CIN 3+ were lower after HPV negativity (0.12%) than after NILM (0.25%). Among HPV-negative women, 5-year risks for CIN 3+ were 0.10% for NILM, 0.44% for ASC-US, 1.8% for LSIL, 3.0% for ASC-H, 1.2% for AGC, and 29% for HSIL+ cytology (which was very rare). Among HPV-positive women, 5-year risks were 4.0% for NILM, 6.8% for ASC-US, 6.1% for LSIL, 28% for ASC-H, 30% for AGC, and 50% for HSIL+ cytology. CONCLUSIONS: As a foundation for the next guidelines revision, we confirmed with additional precision the risk estimates previously reported for combinations of HPV and cytology. Future analyses will estimate risks for women being followed in colposcopy clinic and posttreatment and will consider the role of risk modifiers such as age, HPV vaccine status, HPV type, and screening and treatment history.

Cross-protection of the Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Against Variants of Genetically Related High-Risk HPV Infections.

BACKGROUND: Results from the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (CVT) demonstrated partial cross-protection by the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, which targets HPV-16 and HPV-18, against HPV-31, -33, and -45 infection and an increased incidence of HPV-51 infection. METHODS: A study nested within the CVT intention-to-treat cohort was designed to assess high-risk HPV variant lineage-specific vaccine efficacy (VE). The 2 main end points were (1) long-term incident infections persisting for ≥2 years and/or progression to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (ie, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 [CIN 2/3]) and (2) incident transient infections lasting for <2 years. For efficiency, incident infections due to HPV-16, -18, -31, -33, -35, -45, and -51 resulting in persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 were matched (ratio, 1:2) to the more-frequent transient viral infections, by HPV type. Variant lineages were determined by sequencing the upstream regulatory region and/or E6 region. RESULTS: VEs against persistent or transient infections with HPV-16, -18, -33, -35, -45, and -51 did not differ significantly by variant lineage. As the possible exception, VEs against persistent infection and/or CIN 2/3 due to HPV-31 A/B and HPV-31C variants were -7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], -33.9% to 0%) and 86.4% (95% CI, 65.1%-97.1%), respectively (P = .02 for test of equal VE). No difference in VE was observed by variant among transient HPV-31 infections (P = .68). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sequence variation at the variant level does not appear to explain partial cross-protection by the bivalent HPV vaccine.