RESUMO
Consumption of seafood contaminated by phycotoxins produced by harmful algae is a major issue in human public health. Harmful algal blooms are driven by a multitude of environmental variables; therefore predicting human dietary exposure to phycotoxins based on these variables is a promising approach in health risk management. In this study, we attempted to predict the human health risks associated with Vulcanodinium rugosum and its neurotoxins, pinnatoxins (PnTXs), which have been regularly found in Mediterranean lagoons since their identification in 2011. Based on environmental variables collected over 1 year in four Mediterranean lagoons, we developed linear mixed models to predict the presence of V. rugosum and PnTX G contamination of mussels. We found that the occurrence of V. rugosum was significantly associated with seawater temperature. PnTX G contamination of mussels was highest in summer but persisted throughout the year. This contamination was significantly associated with seawater temperature and the presence of V. rugosum with a time lag, but not with dissolved PnTX G in seawater. By using the contamination model predictions and their potential variability/uncertainty, we calculated the human acute dietary exposures throughout the year and predicted that 25% of people who consume mussels could exceed the provisional acute benchmark value during the warmest periods. We suggest specific recommendations to monitor V. rugosum and PnTX G.