COVID-19 infection and the broader impacts of the pandemic on healthcare workers.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease or COVID-19 pandemic is associated with more than 230 million cases and has challenged healthcare systems globally. Many healthcare workers (HCWs) have acquired the infection, often through their workplace, with a significant number dying. The epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in HCWs continues to be explored, with manifold exposure risks identified, leading to COVID-19 being recognised as an occupational disease for HCWs. The physical illness due to COVID-19 in HCWs is similar to the general population, with some HCWs experiencing a long-term illness, which may impact their ability to return to work. HCWs have also been affected by the immense workplace and psychosocial disruption caused by the pandemic. The impacts on the psychological well-being of HCWs globally have been profound, with high prevalence estimates for mental health symptoms, including emotional exhaustion. Globally, governments, healthcare organisations and employers have key responsibilities, including: to be better prepared for crises with comprehensive disaster response management plans, and to protect and preserve the health workforce from the physical and psychological impacts of the pandemic. While prioritising HCWs in vaccine rollouts globally has been critical, managing exposures and outbreaks occurring in healthcare settings remains challenging and continues to lead to substantial disruption to the health workforce. Safeguarding healthcare workforces during crises is critical as we move forward on the new path of 'COVID normal'.

Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January-August 2020.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

Random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis reveals no clear link between Staphylococcus epidermidis and acute mastitis.

Mastitis is commonly experienced by breastfeeding women. While Staphylococcus aureus is usually implicated in infectious mastitis, coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are a possible alternative pathogen. This case-control study examined the role of CoNS in mastitis using isolates cultured from breast milk of 20 women with mastitis and 16 women without mastitis. Gene sequencing determined bacterial species, and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis investigated strain-level variation. The majority of CoNS isolates were Staphylococcus epidermidis (182/199; 91%). RAPD analysis identified 33 unique S. epidermidis profiles, with no specific profile associated with mastitis cases.

Early life acetaminophen exposure, glutathione S-transferase genes, and development of adolescent asthma in a high-risk birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although the impact of early life acetaminophen on asthma risk is still not clear, potential interactions with glutathione S-transferase (GST) genes due to reduced antioxidant function in particular polymorphisms, and possible impact on lung function, have never been investigated in adolescents. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate associations between early life acetaminophen use and adolescent asthma and lung function and to assess potential interactions by GST polymorphisms. METHODS: Acetaminophen use was recorded 18 times up to age 2 years (n = 575 [92.7%]). Participants were genotyped for GST polymorphisms (GSTM1/T1/P1) (n = 429 [69.2%]). Asthma and lung function were measured at 12 (n = 365 [58.9%]) and 18 years (n = 413 [66.6%]). Regression models assessed associations and interactions. RESULTS: Doubling of days of acetaminophen use was associated with reduced prebronchodilator FEV1/forced vital capacity (ß coefficient, -0.10; 95% CI, -0.19 to -0.01) and midexpiratory flow (-0.09; 95% CI, -0.18 to 0) at 18 years, but this association was not found when restricted for nonrespiratory reasons, suggesting confounding by indication. However, in children with GSTM1 null and GSTT1 present, increasing acetaminophen use for nonrespiratory reasons was associated with reduced FEV1 and midexpiratory flow at 18 years (interaction between GSTM1/T1 and acetaminophen P < .05). Increased acetaminophen use was associated with asthma at 18 years for children with GSTP1 Ile/Ile (odds ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.57), but not other GSTP1 genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: These novel findings need to be investigated for consistency in other studies but suggest that children carrying risk genotypes may be susceptible to respiratory consequences from acetaminophen use.

Pollen exposure at birth and adolescent lung function, and modification by residential greenness.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to high levels of pollen in infancy is a risk factor for allergic respiratory diseases in later childhood, but effects on lung function are not fully understood. We aim to examine associations between grass pollen exposure in the first months of life and lung function at 12 and 18 years, and explore potential modification. METHODS: Using the Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study, a birth cohort of children with a family history of allergic diseases, we modeled the association between cumulative grass pollen exposure up to 3 months after birth, on FEV1 , FVC, and FEV1 /FVC ratio at 12 and 18 years. We also assessed modifying effects of residential greenness levels (derived from satellite imagery), asthma, and early life sensitization to ryegrass. RESULTS: Grass pollen exposure in the first 7 days was associated with a reduction in FEV1 (-15.5 mL; 95% CI: -27.6, -3.3 per doubling of pollen count) and FVC (-20.8 mL; -35.4, -6.1) at 12 years, but not at 18 years. Increase in cumulative grass pollen exposure up to 3 months was negatively associated with FVC at 12 and 18. Exposure to high residential greenness modified the association at 18 years. CONCLUSION: Early exposure to grass pollen was associated with decreased lung function in children and adolescents. Targeted interventions for pollen avoidance strategies that take into account local topography could be implemented alongside other clinical interventions such as immunotherapy.

Age at onset and persistence of eczema are related to subsequent risk of asthma and hay fever from birth to 18 years of age.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have simultaneously addressed the importance of age of onset and persistence of eczema for the subsequent development of asthma and hay fever, particularly into early adulthood. METHODS: A high-risk birth cohort was recruited comprising 620 infants, who were then followed up frequently until 2 years of age, annually from age 3 to 7, then at 12 and 18 years, to document any episodes of eczema, current asthma, and hay fever. The generalized estimation equation technique was used to examine asthma and hay fever outcomes at 6 (n = 325), 12 (n = 248) and 18 (n = 240) years, when there was consistency of associations across the follow-ups. RESULTS: Very early-onset persistent (onset <6 months, still present from 2 to 5 years) eczema was related to current asthma (adjusted OR = 3.2 [95% CI = 1.7-6.1]), as was very early-onset remitting eczema (onset <6 months but not present from 2-5 years, OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.0-7.2) and early-onset persistent eczema (onset from 6-24 months, OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.2-4.7). Late-onset eczema (commenced from 2-5 years) was associated with increased risk of asthma at 12 years (OR = 3.0, 95% CI=1.1-8.2) but not at age 6 years. Only very early-onset persistent eczema was associated with increased risk of hay fever (aOR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.4-4.1). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Eczema which commences in early infancy and persists into toddler years is strongly associated with asthma, and to a lesser extent hay fever, in high-risk children. If these associations are causal, prevention of early-life eczema might reduce the risk of respiratory allergy.

Detection of Candida spp. in the vagina of a cohort of nulliparous pregnant women by culture and molecular methods: Is there an association between maternal vaginal and infant oral colonisation?

BACKGROUND: Most studies describing vaginal Candida spp. in pregnancy focus on symptomatic vaginitis, rather than asymptomatic colonisation, and solely utilise microbiological culture. The extent to which asymptomatic vaginal carriage may represent a reservoir for infant oral colonisation has been highly debated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study formed part of the Candida and Staphylococcus Transmission Longitudinal Evaluation (CASTLE) study, in Melbourne, Australia, from 2009 to 2011 and used culture and molecular methods to examine vaginal swabs collected late in the third trimester of pregnancy for Candida spp. Oral swabs from infants were also examined using culture methods. RESULTS: Overall, 80 of 356 (22%) women were positive for Candida spp; the majority being Candida albicans (83%). Candida glabrata and other Candida spp. were also identified, but in much lower numbers. Molecular analysis identified numerous positive samples not detected by culture, including 13 cases of C. albicans. In addition, some positive samples only recorded to genus level by culture were accurately identified as either C. albicans or C. glabrata following molecular analyses. Eighteen infants recorded positive Candida spp. cultures, predominantly C. albicans. However, there were only four (25%) mother/infant dyads where C. albicans was detected. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides valuable data on asymptomatic colonisation rates of Candida spp. within an asymptomatic population of women late in pregnancy. The utilisation of molecular methods improved the rate of detection and provided a more accurate means for identification of non-albicans Candida spp. The low mother/infant colonisation rate suggests that non-maternal sources are likely involved in determining infant oral colonisation status.

Childhood wheeze phenotypes show less than expected growth in FEV1 across adolescence.

RATIONALE: Better characterization of childhood wheeze phenotypes using newer statistical methods provides a basis for addressing the heterogeneity of childhood asthma. Outcomes of these phenotypes beyond childhood are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine if adolescent respiratory symptoms, lung function, and changes in lung function over adolescence differ by childhood wheeze phenotypes defined through latent class analysis. METHODS: A prospective birth cohort (Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study) followed 620 high allergy-risk children, recording respiratory symptoms and spirometry at 12 and 18 years. Regression analyses identified relationships between wheeze phenotypes (never/infrequent, early transient, early persistent, intermediate onset, and late onset) and lung function, change in lung function (12-18 yr), respiratory symptoms, and asthma. The baseline classification was never/infrequent wheeze. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Deficits in expected growth of lung function, measured by change in prebronchodilator FEV1 between 12 and 18 years, were found for early persistent (reduced 290 ml; 95% confidence interval [CI], 82-498), intermediate-onset (reduced 210 ml; 95% CI, 62-359), and late-onset wheeze (reduced 255 ml; 95% CI, 69-442). Intermediate-onset wheezers had persistent FEV1 deficit after bronchodilator at 18 years (reduced 198 ml; 46,350). Current asthma risk was increased for all phenotypes except early transient, which was also not associated with lung function deficits at 12 or 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent wheeze phenotypes in childhood were associated with reduced growth in prebronchodilator FEV1 over adolescence. Intermediate-onset wheezers showed irreversible airflow limitation by 18 years. Conversely, early transient wheeze was a benign condition with no sequelae for respiratory health by age 18.

Determinants of mastitis in women in the CASTLE study: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mastitis is an acute, debilitating condition that occurs in approximately 20 % of breastfeeding women who experience a red, painful breast with fever. This paper describes the factors correlated with mastitis and investigates the presence of Staphylococcus aureus in women who participated in the CASTLE (Candida and Staphylococcus Transmission: Longitudinal Evaluation) study. The CASTLE study was a prospective cohort study which recruited nulliparous women in late pregnancy in two maternity hospitals in Melbourne, Australia in 2009-2011. METHODS: Women completed questionnaires at recruitment and six time-points in the first eight weeks postpartum. Postpartum questionnaires asked about incidences of mastitis, nipple damage, milk supply, expressing practices and breastfeeding problems. Nasal and nipple swabs were collected from mothers and babies, as well as breast milk samples. All samples were cultured for S. aureus. "Time at risk" of mastitis was defined as days between birth and first occurrence of mastitis (for women who developed mastitis) and days between birth and the last study time-point (for women who did not develop mastitis). Risk factors for incidence of mastitis occurring during the time at risk (Incident Rate Ratios [IRR]) were investigated using a discrete version of the multivariable proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: Twenty percent (70/346) of participants developed mastitis. Women had an increased risk of developing mastitis if they reported nipple damage (IRR 2.17, 95 % CI 1.21, 3.91), over-supply of breast milk (IRR 2.60, 95 % CI 1.58, 4.29), nipple shield use (IRR 2.93, 95 % CI 1.72, 5.01) or expressing several times a day (IRR 1.64, 95 % CI 1.01, 2.68). The presence of S. aureus on the nipple (IRR 1.72, 95 % CI 1.04, 2.85) or in milk (IRR 1.78, 95 % CI 1.08, 2.92) also increased the risk of developing mastitis. CONCLUSIONS: Nipple damage, over-supply of breast milk, use of nipple shields and the presence of S. aureus on the nipple or in breast milk increased the mastitis risk in our prospective cohort study sample. Reducing nipple damage may help reduce maternal breast infections.

Molecular epidemiology of enterococcal bacteremia in Australia.

Enterococci are a major cause of health care-associated infections and account for approximately 10% of all bacteremias globally. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of enterococcal bacteremia isolates in Australia that are antimicrobial resistant, with particular emphasis on susceptibility to ampicillin and the glycopeptides, and to characterize the molecular epidemiology of the Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium isolates. From 1 January to 31 December 2011, 1,079 unique episodes of bacteremia were investigated, of which 95.8% were caused by either E. faecalis (61.0%) or E. faecium (34.8%). The majority of bacteremias were health care associated, and approximately one-third were polymicrobial. Ampicillin resistance was detected in 90.4% of E. faecium isolates but was not detected in E. faecalis isolates. Vancomycin nonsusceptibility was reported in 0.6% and 36.5% of E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates, respectively. Unlike Europe and the United States, where vancomycin resistance in E. faecium is predominately due to the acquisition of the vanA operon, 98.4% of E. faecium isolates harboring van genes carried the vanB operon, and 16.1% of the vanB E. faecium isolates had vancomycin MICs at or below the susceptible breakpoint of the CLSI. Although molecular typing identified 126 E. faecalis pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pulsotypes, >50% belonged to two pulsotypes that were isolated across Australia. E. faecium consisted of 73 pulsotypes from which 43 multilocus sequence types were identified. Almost 90% of the E. faecium isolates were identified as CC17 clones, of which approximately half were characterized as ST203, which was isolated Australia-wide. In conclusion, the Australian Enterococcal Sepsis Outcome Programme (AESOP) study has shown that although they are polyclonal, enterococcal bacteremias in Australia are frequently caused by ampicillin-resistant vanB E. faecium.

Early-life risk factors for childhood wheeze phenotypes in a high-risk birth cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To define longitudinal childhood wheeze phenotypes and identify their early-life risk factors. STUDY DESIGN: Current wheeze was recorded 23 times up to age 7 years in a birth cohort at high risk for allergy (n = 620). Latent class analysis of wheeze responses identified 5 classes. Multinomial logistic regression estimated associations of probability-weighted wheezing classes with early-life factors. All phenotypes were compared with never/infrequent wheezers. RESULTS: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) by 1 year (relative risk [RR], 3.00; 95% CI, 1.58-5.70), childcare by 1 year (RR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.02-2.22), and higher body mass index (RR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.09-5.81) were associated with increased risk of early transient wheeze, whereas breastfeeding was protective (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.32-0.90). LRTI (RR, 6.54; 95% CI, 2.55-16.76) and aeroallergen sensitization (RR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.74-14.02) increased the risk of early persistent wheeze. LRTI (RR, 5.31; 95% CI, 2.71-10.41), eczema (RR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.78-4.31), aeroallergen sensitization (RR, 5.60; 95% CI, 2.86-10.9), and food sensitization (RR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.56-4.94) increased the risk of intermediate-onset wheeze, whereas dog exposure at baseline (RR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.84) and first-born status (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32-0.76) were protective. Heavy parental smoking at birth (RR, 3.18; 95% CI, 1.02-9.88) increased the risk of late-onset wheeze, whereas breastfeeding reduced it (RR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.12-0.96). All wheeze classes except early transient had greater risk of wheeze at age 12 years compared with never/infrequent wheezers. CONCLUSION: We found distinct early-life risk factor profiles for each wheeze phenotype. These findings provide insight into possible wheeze mechanisms and have implications for identifying preventive strategies and addressing clinical management of early-life wheeze.

Australian Enterococcal Sepsis Outcome Progamme, 2011.

From 1 January to 31 December 2011, 29 institutions around Australia participated in the Australian Enterococcal Sepsis Outcome Programme (AESOP). The aim of AESOP 2011 was to determine the proportion of enterococcal bacteraemia isolates in Australia that are antimicrobial resistant, with particular emphasis on susceptibility to ampicillin and the glycopeptides, and to characterise the molecular epidemiology of the Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium isolates. Of the 1,079 unique episodes of bacteraemia investigated, 95.8% were caused by either E. faecalis (61.0%) or E. faecium (34.8%). Ampicillin resistance was detected in 90.4% of E. faecium but not detected in E. faecalis. Using Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute breakpoints (CLSI), vancomycin non-susceptibility was reported in 0.6% and 31.4% of E. faecalis and E. faecium respectively and was predominately due to the acquisition of the vanB operon. Approximately 1 in 6 vanB E. faecium isolates however, had an minimum inhibitory concentration at or below the CLSI vancomycin susceptible breakpoint of ≤ 4 mg/L. Overall, 37% of E. faecium harboured vanA or vanB genes. Although molecular typing identified 126 E. faecalis pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) pulsotypes, more than 50% belonged to 2 pulsotypes that were isolated across Australia. E. faecium consisted of 73 PFGE pulsotypes from which 43 multilocus sequence types were identified. Almost 90% of the E. faecium were identified as clonal complex 17 clones, of which approximately half were characterised as sequence type 203, which was isolated Australia-wide. In conclusion, the AESOP 2011 has shown that although polyclonal, enterococcal bacteraemias in Australia are frequently caused by ampicillin-resistant vanB E. faecium.

Australian Enterococcal Sepsis Outcome Programme annual report, 2013.

From 1 January to 31 December 2013, 26 institutions around Australia participated in the Australian Enterococcal Sepsis Outcome Programme (AESOP). The aim of AESOP 2013 was to determine the proportion of enterococcal bacteraemia isolates in Australia that are antimicrobial resistant, and to characterise the molecular epidemiology of the Enterococcus faecium isolates. Of the 826 unique episodes of bacteraemia investigated, 94.6% were caused by either E. faecalis (56.1%) or E. faecium (38.5%). Ampicillin resistance was not detected in E. faecalis but was detected in over 90% of E. faecium. Vancomycin non-susceptibility was reported in 0.2% and 40.9% of E. faecalis and E. faecium respectively and was predominately due to the acquisition of the vanB operon. Overall, 41.6% of E. faecium harboured vanA or vanB genes. The percentage of E. faecium bacteraemia isolates resistant to vancomycin in Australia is significantly higher than that seen in most European countries. E. faecium isolates consisted of 81 pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pulsotypes of which 72.3% were classified into 14 major pulsotypes containing five or more isolates. Multilocus sequence typing grouped the 14 major pulsotypes into clonal cluster 17, a major hospital-adapted polyclonal E. faecium cluster. Of the 2 predominant sequence types, ST203 (80 isolates) was identified across Australia and ST555 (40 isolates) was isolated primarily in the western and central regions (Northern Territory, South Australia and Western Australia) respectively. In conclusion, the AESOP 2013 has shown enterococcal bacteraemias in Australia are frequently caused by polyclonal ampicillin-resistant high-level gentamicin resistant vanB E. faecium, which have limited treatment options.

Mapping Australia's COVID-19 quarantine cohort journeys.

BACKGROUND: Australia rapidly developed COVID-19 quarantine programs to reduce the adverse outcomes of a novel pathogen imported by visitors and returned travellers. Different quarantine pathways were utilised over the pandemic, yet no definitive cohort map exists to guide future preparedness. We created a whole-of-system cohort journey map of Australian quarantine cohorts to inform future pandemic preparedness activities. METHODS: Australian parliamentary websites and Google were searched for publicly available grey literature from 2019 to 2023. Data about quarantine cohorts, pandemic plans and documents, journey activities, viral escape events, and quarantine recommendations were extracted and plotted to produce a whole-of-system cohort journey map. RESULTS: The system mapping process identified 22 distinct quarantine cohort journeys during COVID-19, yet few of the cohorts were mentioned in pandemic and emergency plans. Viral escape events were documented 27 times, and COVID-19 reviews and inquiries produced 282 quarantine-specific recommendations. Cohorts included international and domestic travellers who experienced home, hotel, and facility quarantine iterations. Other cohorts, such as humanitarian evacuations, diplomats, airline crews, community close contacts, and people experiencing homelessness, had distinctive quarantine journeys. CONCLUSIONS: This whole-of-system quarantine cohort map furthers the case for governments and policymakers to update pandemic plans to include the 22 identified cohorts and test plans through pandemic exercises. Recommendations from inquiries should be acquitted to reduce the risk of viral escape and to strengthen national preparedness if quarantine systems are required in future pandemic responses.

Post implementation quarantine recommendations that support preparedness: A systematic review and quarantine implementation capability framework.

BACKGROUND: During COVID-19, countries utilised various quarantine systems to achieve specific outcomes. At different stages and durations, voluntary and mandatory quarantine occurred in homes, hotels and facilities based on local and national elimination strategies. Countries are incorporating quarantine lessons from COVID-19 into revising pandemic plans as part of the World Health Organization's Preparedness and Resilience for Emerging Threats (PRET) activities. This review aimed to amalgamate quarantine post implementation recommendations from a whole-of-system perspective. METHODS: This review utilised MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, APA, and PsycINFO. To capture all pandemics, no date restriction was applied. Recommendations were synthesised and inductively grouped into quarantine capability categories. This review was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023420765). RESULTS: A total of 449 published articles were screened, with 51 articles included and 156 recommendations extracted. Recommendations were grouped into 15 quarantine capability categories, comprising governance, preparation, infection prevention and control, ventilation, compliance, data, information and technology, safety-quality-risk, communication, healthcare model, home quarantine, hotel quarantine, facility quarantine, workforce, and resident considerations. The capability categories were further consolidated into strategic, structural, and operational domains to support the whole-of-system perspective. CONCLUSION: The quarantine implementation capability framework generated provides comprehensive and deeper insights into the essential capabilities required for quarantine systems to support governments in PRET activities, including reviewing and revising pandemic plans and developing quarantine preparedness exercises.

The timing of local SARS-Cov-2 outbreaks and vaccination coverage during the Delta wave in Melbourne.

OBJECTIVE: This article presents a longitudinal analysis of COVID-19 infection and vaccination coverage in Melbourne metropolitan local government areas (LGAs) during the 2021 Delta wave. METHODS: COVID-19 vaccination and infection data from 12 July to 27 November 2021 were sourced from government websites. Summary statistics and associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were compared by LGA ranked according to socioeconomic status: total "burden" (total infections per thousand), "peak" (highest weekly infection rate), "lag" (interval between peak and 70% double vaccination). RESULTS: LGAs in the bottom five deciles for social advantage experienced higher infection rates (39.0 per thousand [95% CI: 38.5, 39.5] vs. 14.8 [14.7, 14.9]), and had lower two-dose vaccination coverage (23.8% [23.6, 23.9] vs. 32.7% [32.6, 32.7]) compared with LGAs in the top five deciles. LGAs that achieved 70% coverage two weeks or more after the infection peak experienced nearly twice the total infection burden (27.7 per 1000 [27.3, 28.0] compared with 14.9 [14.7, 15.0]) than LGAs with a shorter lag. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure and transmission risk factors cluster within disadvantaged LGAs. The potential for large local outbreaks is heightened if vaccination uptake trails in these communities. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: In a pandemic, decision-makers must prioritise disease control and harm reduction interventions for at-risk LGAs.

BMI trajectories from infancy to 18 years and mental health in emerging adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Studies exploring early life-course BMI trajectories and subsequent mental health outcomes are limited but may provide important insights for early intervention. We investigated associations between BMI trajectories from 0 to 18 years and mental health outcomes in emerging adulthood. METHODS: Data were obtained from 434 participants in the Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study (MACS). Anthropometric data were collected across 26 timepoints from infancy to age 25 and group-based trajectory modelling was used to develop BMI trajectories from 0.1 to 18 years. Moderate-to-severe psychological distress (MSPD) and likely depression were assessed at age 18 and 25 years. Associations between BMI trajectories and mental health at 25 years and change in mental health between 18 and 25 years were estimated using logistic regression. History of asthma, hay fever or eczema were independently examined as potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: Five BMI trajectories were identified from 1 month to 18 years. When compared to the stable average BMI trajectory, we found an increased risk of MSPD (OR = 2.97; 95%CI: 1.09,8.06) and likely depression (3.56; 1.39,9.12) at age 25 in the average increasing-to-high trajectory. This group also had a greater likelihood of new-onset depression (4.82; 1.54,15.0) from 18 to 25 years of age. LIMITATIONS: MACS participants are not representative of the general population and mental health data was not available before 18 years of age. CONCLUSION: Excessive weight gain across the childhood transition was associated with poorer mental health in emerging adulthood, highlighting the importance of monitoring growth to allow for early identification and stratification of individuals at risk of poor mental health.

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. METHODS: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.

Forecasting pandemic quarantine in New Zealand and Australia: A scoping review of quarantine characteristics and capabilities within preparedness plans and pandemic exercise reports from 2002 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: This scoping review aims to identify and critically review quarantine preparedness in New Zealand and Australia pre-COVID-19 by categorising, comparing, and evaluating quarantine information contained within pandemic plans and exercises from both countries. METHODS: Parliamentary websites, including Archives New Zealand, ParlInfo and Google Scholar, were searched for publicly available plans and exercise reports from 2002 to 2019. Data were extracted from documents meeting the inclusion criteria and analysed using directive content analysis based on the Australian Disaster Preparedness Framework categories. This scoping review followed the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews, which guided the data extraction, analysis, and presentation of results. RESULTS: A total of 16 documents mentioned quarantine and were included in this scoping review. The emphasis and level of detail regarding quarantine characteristics and capabilities varied between New Zealand's five documents (one plan and four exercise reports) and Australia's 11 documents (one Influenza pandemic plan, eight state plans and two exercise reports). New Zealand's plan forecasted the need for both voluntary quarantine at home and involuntary quarantine in facilities for incoming travellers, whilst the Australian Influenza pandemic plan and state plans primarily considered voluntary quarantine within private residences. Capability gaps identified during exercises were not consistently incorporated into revised plans. Some government documents containing information on quarantine may not be publicly available, limiting the available evidence for this review. CONCLUSION: This scoping review highlights the need to incorporate a range of possible quarantine options into plans and preparation activities to test and identify gaps in government and responsible agencies' capabilities. Pandemic preparedness will be strengthened by incorporating quarantine scale and duration variables into exercise scenarios.

Pandemic policing and the construction of publics: an analysis of COVID-19 lockdowns in public housing.

COVID-19 responses have cast a spotlight on the uneven impacts of public health policy with particular populations or sites targeted for intervention. Perhaps the starkest example in Australia was the 'hard' lockdown of nine public housing complexes in inner-city Melbourne from 4 to 18 July 2020, where residents were fully confined to their homes. These complexes are home to diverse migrant communities and the lockdown drew public criticism for unfairly stigmatising ethnic minorities. This article draws on media articles published during the lockdown and the Victorian Ombudsman's subsequent investigation to explore the implications of broad, top-down public health measures for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities. Drawing on Lea's (2020) conceptualisation of policy ecology, we analyse the lockdown measures and community responses to explore the normative assumptions underpinning health policy mechanisms, constituting 'target populations' in narrow, exclusionary terms. We argue that the lockdown measures and use of police as compliance officers positioned tower residents as risky subjects in risky places. Tracing how such subject positions are produced, and resisted at the grassroots level, we highlight how policy instruments are not neutral interventions, but rather instantiate classed and racialised patterns of exclusion, reinforcing pervasive social inequalities in the name of public health.