Autoantibodies against chemokines post-SARS-CoV-2 infection correlate with disease course.

Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 associates with diverse symptoms, which can persist for months. While antiviral antibodies are protective, those targeting interferons and other immune factors are associated with adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Here we discovered that antibodies against specific chemokines were omnipresent post-COVID-19, were associated with favorable disease outcome and negatively correlated with the development of long COVID at 1 yr post-infection. Chemokine antibodies were also present in HIV-1 infection and autoimmune disorders, but they targeted different chemokines compared with COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies derived from COVID-19 convalescents that bound to the chemokine N-loop impaired cell migration. Given the role of chemokines in orchestrating immune cell trafficking, naturally arising chemokine antibodies may modulate the inflammatory response and thus bear therapeutic potential.

Mapping Neutralizing and Immunodominant Sites on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-Binding Domain by Structure-Guided High-Resolution Serology.

Analysis of the specificity and kinetics of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for understanding immune protection and identifying targets for vaccine design. In a cohort of 647 SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects, we found that both the magnitude of Ab responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and nucleoprotein and nAb titers correlate with clinical scores. The receptor-binding domain (RBD) is immunodominant and the target of 90% of the neutralizing activity present in SARS-CoV-2 immune sera. Whereas overall RBD-specific serum IgG titers waned with a half-life of 49 days, nAb titers and avidity increased over time for some individuals, consistent with affinity maturation. We structurally defined an RBD antigenic map and serologically quantified serum Abs specific for distinct RBD epitopes leading to the identification of two major receptor-binding motif antigenic sites. Our results explain the immunodominance of the receptor-binding motif and will guide the design of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.

Using viral diversity to identify HIV-1 variants under HLA-dependent selection in a systematic viral genome-wide screen.

The pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection is governed by a highly dynamic, time-dependent interaction between the host and the viral genome. In this study, we developed a novel systematic approach to assess the host-virus interaction, using average pairwise viral diversity as a proxy for time since infection, and applied this method to nearly whole viral genome sequences (n = 4,464), human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotyping data (n = 1,044), and viral RNA load (VL) measurements during the untreated chronic phase (n = 829) of Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. Our systematic genome-wide screen revealed for 98 HLA/viral-variant pairs a signature of immune-driven selection in the form of an HLA-dependent effect of infection time on the presence of HIV amino acid variants. Of these pairs, 12 were found to have an effect on VL. Furthermore, 28/58 pairs were validated by time-to-event analyses and 48/92 by computational HLA-epitope predictions. Our diversity-based approach allows a powerful and systematic investigation of the interaction between the virus and cellular immunity, revealing a notable subset of such interaction effects. From an evolutionary perspective, these observations underscore the complexity of HLA-mediated selection pressures on the virus that shape viral evolution and pathogenesis.

Cardiac implantable electronic devices and bloodstream infections: management and outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Bloodstream infection (BSI) of any cause may lead to device infection in cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) patients. Aiming for a better understanding of the diagnostic approach, treatment, and outcome, patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) and cardiac resynchronization therapy and defibrillator (CRT-D) hospitalized with BSI were investigated. METHODS: This is a single-centre, retrospective, cohort analysis including consecutive ICD/CRT-D patients implanted between 2012 and 2021. These patients were screened against a list of all hospitalized patients having positive blood cultures consistent with diagnosed infection in any department of a local public hospital. RESULTS: The total cohort consisted of 515 patients. Over a median follow-up of 59 months (interquartile range 31-87 months), there were 47 BSI episodes in 36 patients. The majority of patients with BSI (92%) was admitted to non-cardiology units, and in 25 episodes (53%), no cardiac imaging was performed. Nearly all patients (85%) were treated with short-term antibiotics, whereas chronic antibiotic suppression therapy (n = 4) and system extraction (n = 3) were less frequent. Patients with BSI had a nearly seven-fold higher rate (hazard ratio 6.7, 95% confidence interval 3.9-11.2; P < .001) of all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic workup of defibrillator patients with BSI admitted to a non-cardiology unit is often insufficient to characterize lead-related endocarditis. The high mortality rate in these patients with BSI may relate to underdiagnosis and consequently late/absence of system removal. Efforts to increase an interdisciplinary approach and greater use of cardiac imaging are necessary for timely diagnosis and adequate treatment.

Genetic Diversity From Proviral DNA as a Proxy for Time Since HIV-1 Infection.

HIV-1 RNA genetic diversity predicts time since infection, which is important for clinical care and research. It is unclear, however, whether proviral DNA genetic diversity sampled under suppressive antiretroviral therapy can be used for this purpose. We tested whether proviral genetic diversity from next-generation sequencing predicts time since infection and recency in 221 people with HIV-1 with known infection time. Proviral diversity was significantly associated with time since infection (P < 5×10-7, R2 up to 25%) and predictive of treatment initiation during recent infection (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic up to 0.85). This shows the utility of proviral genetic diversity as a proxy for time since infection.

Circulating HBV RNA and Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen Trajectories in Persons With HIV/HBV Coinfection and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Loss During Tenofovir Therapy.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated long-term trajectories of circulating hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) in persons with and without hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss during tenofovir therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 persons with HIV with HBsAg loss and 29 matched persons with HIV without HBsAg loss. We compared HBV RNA and HBcrAg decline and assessed the cumulative proportions with undetectable HBV RNA and HBcrAg levels during tenofovir therapy using Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: HBsAg loss occurred after a median of 4 years (IQR, 1-8). All participants with HBsAg loss achieved suppressed HBV DNA and undetectable HBV RNA preceding undetectable quantitative HBsAg levels, whereas 79% achieved negative HBcrAg. In comparison, 79% of participants without HBsAg loss achieved undetectable HBV-RNA and 48% negative HBcrAg. After 2 years of tenofovir therapy, an HBV RNA decline ≥1 log10 copies/mL had 100% sensitivity and 36.4% specificity for HBsAg loss, whereas an HBcrAg decline ≥1 log10 U/mL had 91.0% sensitivity and 64.5% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: HBV RNA suppression preceded undetectable quantitative HBsAg levels and had high sensitivity but low specificity for HBsAg loss during tenofovir therapy in persons with HIV. HBcrAg remained detectable in approximately 20% of persons with HBsAg loss and 50% of persons without HBsAg loss.

Deciphering Factors Linked With Reduced Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Susceptibility in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Factors influencing susceptibility to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain to be resolved. Using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on 6270 people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and serologic assessment for SARS-CoV-2 and circulating human coronavirus (HCoV) antibodies, we investigated the association of HIV-related and general parameters with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test results, COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and deaths reported to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021. Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and HCoVs were determined in prepandemic (2019) and pandemic (2020) biobanked plasma samples and compared with findings in HIV-negative individuals. We applied logistic regression, conditional logistic regression, and bayesian multivariate regression to identify determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in people with HIV. RESULTS: No HIV-1-related factors were associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition. High prepandemic HCoV antibodies were associated with a lower risk of subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and with higher SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses on infection. We observed a robust protective effect of smoking on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk (adjusted odds ratio, 0.46 [95% confidence interval, .38-.56]; P < .001), which occurred even in previous smokers and was highest for heavy smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of 2 independent protective factors, smoking and HCoV antibodies, both affecting the respiratory environment, underscore the importance of the local immune milieu in regulating susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2.

Antiretroviral Drug Exposure and Response in Obese and Morbidly Obese People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): A Study Combining Modelling and Swiss HIV Cohort Data.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is increasingly prevalent among people with HIV (PWH) and can possibly result in suboptimal antiretroviral drug (ARV) exposure and response. However, this has not been thoroughly evaluated given that obese PWH are underrepresented in clinical trials. We performed virtual trials using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling combined with observed clinical data to provide ARV dosing guidance in obese individuals. METHODS: Each trial included a cohort of virtual adults with a body mass index (BMI) between 18.5 and 60 kg/m2. Therapeutic drug-monitoring data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) were used to verify the predictive performance of the model. Subsequently, the model was applied to predict the pharmacokinetics of ARVs for different obesity classes. The association between ARV plasma concentrations and virological response was investigated in obese and nonobese individuals. RESULTS: The PBPK model predicted an average reduction in ARV exposure of ∼20% and trough concentrations of ∼6% in obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) compared with nonobese (BMI: 18.5-25 kg/m2) individuals, consistent with observed clinical data. Etravirine and rilpivirine were the most impacted, especially in individuals with BMI >40 kg/m2 whose trough concentrations were below the clinical target threshold. Obese PWH in the SHCS did not have a higher rate of unsuppressed viral load than nonobese PWH. CONCLUSIONS: The concentrations of ARVs are modestly reduced in obese individuals, with no negative impact on the virological response. Our data provide reassurance that standard doses of ARVs are suitable in obese PWH, including those who gained substantial weight with some of the first-line ARVs.

Weight, Anthropometric and Metabolic Changes After Discontinuing Antiretroviral Therapy Containing Tenofovir Alafenamide in People With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART)-related weight gain is of particular concern in people with HIV (PWH). Although weight gain was observed among PWH receiving tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), little is known about the potential reversibility after TAF discontinuation. We evaluated weight and metabolic changes 12 months after TAF discontinuation in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included participants who received at least 6 months of TAF-containing ART between January 2016 and March 2023. Using multivariable mixed-effect models, changes in weight and lipid levels were compared between individuals who continued TAF and those who switched to one of the following TAF-free regimens: (1) tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-based ART, (2) dolutegravir/lamivudine (DTG/3TC), or (3) long-acting cabotegravir/rilpivirine (CAB/RPV). RESULTS: Of 6555 participants (median age 54 years, 24.3% female, 13% Black), 5485 (83.7%) continued, and 1070 (16.3%) stopped TAF. Overall, discontinuing TAF was associated with an adjusted mean weight change of -0.54 kg (95% confidence interval [CI] -.98 to -.11) after 12 months. In stratified analyses, switching from TAF to TDF led to an adjusted mean weight decrease of -1.84 kg (95% CI -2.72 to -.97), and to a decrease in mean total cholesterol (-0.44 mmol/L) and triglycerides (-0.38 mmol/L) after 12 months. Switching from TAF-based ART to DTG/3TC (-0.17 kg, 95% CI -.82 to .48) or long-acting CAB/RPV (-0.64 kg, 95% CI -2.16 to .89) did not lead to reductions in weight. CONCLUSIONS: Replacing TAF with TDF in PWH led to a decrease in body weight and an improved lipid profile within 1 year. Weight changes were not observed among individuals who switched to DTG/3TC or long-acting CAB/RPV.

Long-term quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) trajectories in persons with and without HBsAg loss on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Improving the understanding of the patterns of quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) trajectories associated with HBsAg loss is important in light of novel anti-hepatitis B virus agents being developed. We evaluated long-term qHBsAg trajectories in persons with HIV and HBV during tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 participants with and 29 without HBsAg loss, defined as qHBsAg <0.05 IU/mL. We assessed qHBsAg decline during therapy in both groups and used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify different qHBsAg trajectory profiles in persons with HBsAg loss. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 11.9 years (IQR 8.4-14.1), and the median time to HBsAg loss was 48 months (IQR 12-96). Among participants with HBsAg loss, 79% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/mL 2 years after starting tenofovir. The trajectories in qHBsAg levels during tenofovir therapy were heterogeneous, characterized by five distinct profiles. Among participants without HBsAg loss, only 7% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/ml after 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Most persons with HIV who experienced HBsAg loss had an early decline in qHBsAg levels, with diverse trajectories during long-term tenofovir therapy. In persons without HBsAg loss, qHBsAg levels remained remarkably stable over time.

External validation of the Dat'AIDS score: A risk score for predicting 5-year overall mortality in people living with HIV aged 60 years or older.

OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation of the Dat'AIDS score for predicting 5-year overall mortality among people with HIV (PWH) aged 60 years or older. METHODS: This was a multi-centre prospective cohort study at all sites participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We calculated the Dat'AIDS score in PWH aged 60 years or older at their first visit between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2020. People living with HIV-2 and those whose Dat'AIDS score could not be calculated were excluded. Patients were followed until 1 January 2020. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Vital status was collected throughout the study period. We obtained population and score descriptive statistics and assessed the score's discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 2205 participants (82% male) of median [interquartile range (IQR)] age 62.0 (60.3-67.0) years, mostly with viraemia <50 copies/mL (92.7%). Median follow-up time was 15.9 years and median (IQR) CD4 cell count at enrolment was 586 (420-782) cells/µL. In all, 152 deaths were recorded during a total follow-up period of 7147 patient-years. The median (IQR) observed Dat'AIDS score was 3 (0-8). Discriminative capacities were good as the C-statistic was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.77) and consistent across all subgroups. Comparison of observed and expected survival probabilities showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: External validation of the Dat'AIDS score in patients aged 60 years or older showed that it could be a useful tool not only for research purposes, but also to identify older patients at a higher mortality risk and to tailor the most appropriate interventions.

Incidence of sexually transmitted infections and association with behavioural factors: Time-to-event analysis of a large pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to obtain long-term data on the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and their association with behavioural factors after widespread pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation. METHODS: This was a time-to-event analysis of a national PrEP cohort in Switzerland (SwissPrEPared study). Participants were people without HIV interested in taking PrEP with at least two STI screening visits. Primary outcomes were incidence rate of gonorrhoea, chlamydia, and syphilis. The association between behavioural factors and STI diagnosis was expressed using hazard ratios. We adjusted for testing frequency and calendar year. RESULTS: This analysis included 3907 participants enrolled between April 2019 and April 2022, yielding 3815.7 person-years of follow-up for gonorrhoea (15 134 screenings), 3802.5 for chlamydia (15 141 screenings), and 3858.6 for syphilis (15 001 screenings). The median age was 39 years (interquartile range [IQR] 32-47), 93.8% (n = 3664) identified as men who have sex with men (MSM). The incidence was 22.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.3-24.4) per 100 person-years for gonorrhoea, 26.3 (95% CI 24.7-28.0) for chlamydia, and 4.4 (95% CI 3.8-5.1) for syphilis. Yearly incidence rates decreased between 2019 (all bacterial STIs: 81.6; 95% CI 59.1-109.9) and 2022 (all bacterial STIs: 49.8; 95% CI 44.6-55.3). Participants reporting chemsex substance use were at higher risk of incident STIs, as were those reporting multiple sexual partners. Younger age was associated with a higher risk of gonorrhoea and chlamydia. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence rates of bacterial STIs decreased over time. Young MSM, those with multiple partners, and those using chemsex substances were at increased risk of STIs.

Long-term trends in hepatitis C prevalence, treatment uptake and liver-related events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Treatment for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections changed dramatically in the last decade. We assessed changes in the prevalence of replicating HCV infection, treatment uptake and liver-related morbidity and mortality in persons with HIV (PWH) and hepatitis C in the Swiss HIV cohort study. METHODS: We included all cohort participants between 2002 and 2021. We assessed yearly prevalence of replicating HCV infection, overall and liver-related mortality, as well as the yearly incidence of liver-related events in persons with at least one documented positive HCV-RNA. RESULTS: Of 14 652 participants under follow-up, 2294 had at least one positive HCV-RNA measurement. Of those, 1316 (57%) ever received an HCV treatment. Treatment uptake increased from 8.1% in 2002 to a maximum of 32.6% in 2016. Overall, prevalence of replicating HCV infection declined from 16.5% in 2004 to 1.3% in 2021. HCV prevalence declined from 63.2% to 7.1% in persons who inject drugs, and from 4.1% to 0.6% in men who have sex with men. Among the 2294 persons with replicating HCV infection, overall mortality declined from a maximum of 3.3 per 100 patient-years (PY) to 1.1 per 100 PY, and incidence of liver-related events decreased from 1.4/100 PY to 0.2/100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of DAA therapy was associated with a more than 10-fold reduction in prevalence of replicating HCV infection in PWH, approaching the estimates in the general population. Overall mortality and liver-related events declined substantially in persons living with HIV and hepatitis C.

Infectious disease events in people with HIV receiving kidney transplantation: Analysis of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Since the implementation of universal antiretroviral therapy, kidney transplantation (K-Tx) has become a valuable option for treatment of end-stage kidney disease for people with HIV (PWH) with similar patient and graft survival as compared to HIV-uninfected patients. Little is known about the hazards and manifestations of infectious disease (ID) events occurring in kidney transplant recipients with HIV. METHODS: Using linked information collected in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS), we described in-depth demographical and clinical characteristics of PWH who received a K-Tx since 2008. Further, we performed recurrent time to event analyses to understand whether HIV was an independent risk factor for ID events. RESULTS: Overall, 24 PWH with 57 ID events were included in this study (100% match of SHCS to STCS). Of these, 17 (70.8%) patients had at least one ID event: 22 (38.6%) viral (HIV not counted), 18 (31.6%) bacterial, one (1.8%) fungal and 16 (28.1%) probable infections. Most ID events affected the respiratory tract (25, 37.3%) or the urinary tract (13, 19.4%). Pathogen types and infection sites were similar in PWH and a matched control group of HIV-uninfected patients. HIV was not an independent risk factor for ID events (adjusted hazard ratio 0.94, p = 0.9). CONCLUSION: By linking data from two large national Swiss cohorts, we provided in-depth information on ID events in PWH receiving a K-Tx in Switzerland. HIV infection was not associated with an increased hazard for ID events after K-Tx.

Immune response to the recombinant herpes zoster vaccine in people living with HIV over 50 years of age compared to non-HIV age-/gender-matched controls (SHINGR'HIV): a multicenter, international, non-randomized clinical trial study protocol.

BACKGROUND: The burden of herpes zoster (shingles) virus and associated complications, such as post-herpetic neuralgia, is higher in older adults and has a significant impact on quality of life. The incidence of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia is increased in people living with HIV (PLWH) compared to an age-matched general population, including PLWH on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) with no detectable viremia and normal CD4 counts. PLWH - even on effective ART may- exhibit sustained immune dysfunction, as well as defects in cells involved in the response to vaccines. In the context of herpes zoster, it is therefore important to assess the immune response to varicella zoster virus vaccination in older PLWH and to determine whether it significantly differs to that of HIV-uninfected healthy adults or younger PLWH. We aim at bridging these knowledge gaps by conducting a multicentric, international, non-randomised clinical study (SHINGR'HIV) with prospective data collection after vaccination with an adjuvant recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) in two distinct populations: in PLWH on long-term ART (> 10 years) over 50 years of and age/gender matched controls. METHODS: We will recruit participants from two large established HIV cohorts in Switzerland and in France in addition to age-/gender-matched HIV-uninfected controls. Participants will receive two doses of RZV two months apart. In depth-evaluation of the humoral, cellular, and innate immune responses and safety profile of the RZV will be performed to address the combined effect of aging and potential immune deficiencies due to chronic HIV infection. The primary study outcome will compare the geometric mean titer (GMT) of gE-specific total IgG measured 1 month after the second dose of RZV between different age groups of PLWH and between PLWH and age-/gender-matched HIV-uninfected controls. DISCUSSION: The SHINGR'HIV trial will provide robust data on the immunogenicity and safety profile of RZV in older PLWH to support vaccination guidelines in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05575830. Registered on 12 October 2022. Eu Clinical Trial Register (EUCT number 2023-504482-23-00).

Tracing HIV-1 strains that imprint broadly neutralizing antibody responses.

Understanding the determinants of broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) evolution is crucial for the development of bNAb-based HIV vaccines1. Despite emerging information on cofactors that promote bNAb evolution in natural HIV-1 infections, in which the induction of bNAbs is genuinely rare2, information on the impact of the infecting virus strain on determining the breadth and specificity of the antibody responses to HIV-1 is lacking. Here we analyse the influence of viral antigens in shaping antibody responses in humans. We call the ability of a virus strain to induce similar antibody responses across different hosts its antibody-imprinting capacity, which from an evolutionary biology perspective corresponds to the viral heritability of the antibody responses. Analysis of 53 measured parameters of HIV-1-binding and neutralizing antibody responses in a cohort of 303 HIV-1 transmission pairs (individuals who harboured highly related HIV-1 strains and were putative direct transmission partners or members of an HIV-1 transmission chain) revealed that the effect of the infecting virus on the outcome of the bNAb response is moderate in magnitude but highly significant. We introduce the concept of bNAb-imprinting viruses and provide evidence for the existence of such viruses in a systematic screening of our cohort. The bNAb-imprinting capacity can be substantial, as indicated by a transmission pair with highly similar HIV-1 antibody responses and strong bNAb activity. Identification of viruses that have bNAb-imprinting capacities and their characterization may thus provide the potential to develop lead immunogens.

Evidence-Based Data on the Diagnostic Role and Clinical Usefulness of [18F]FDG PET/CT in Endocarditis and Cardiac Device Infections.

Infective endocarditis and infection of cardiac devices are conditions characterized by high morbidity and mortality, thus requiring a prompt diagnosis. Advanced imaging modalities are often required in the management of infectious endocarditis according to guidelines. The aim of this review is to collect and describe evidence-based knowledge about the diagnostic role and clinical usefulness of [18F]FDG PET/CT in endocarditis and cardiac device infections based on published systematic reviews and meta-analyses on this topic and on recent guidelines. [18F]FDG PET/CT is recommended only in selected cases. This imaging method has good diagnostic accuracy in detecting prosthetic valve endocarditis and cardiac device infection. Furthermore, it can identify extra-cardiac infectious foci changing the clinical management in a significant percentage of cases.

A data-driven approach to identify risk profiles and protective drugs in COVID-19.

As the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world, increasing evidence highlights the role of cardiometabolic risk factors in determining the susceptibility to the disease. The fragmented data collected during the initial emergency limited the possibility of investigating the effect of highly correlated covariates and of modeling the interplay between risk factors and medication. The present study is based on comprehensive monitoring of 576 COVID-19 patients. Different statistical approaches were applied to gain a comprehensive insight in terms of both the identification of risk factors and the analysis of dependency structure among clinical and demographic characteristics. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus enters host cells by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), but whether or not renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) would be beneficial to COVID-19 cases remains controversial. The survival tree approach was applied to define a multilayer risk stratification and better profile patient survival with respect to drug regimens, showing a significant protective effect of RAASi with a reduced risk of in-hospital death. Bayesian networks were estimated, to uncover complex interrelationships and confounding effects. The results confirmed the role of RAASi in reducing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. De novo treatment with RAASi in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 should be prospectively investigated in a randomized controlled trial to ascertain the extent of risk reduction for in-hospital death in COVID-19.

Triggers of Change in Sexual Behavior Among People With HIV: The Swiss U U Statement and COVID-19 Compared.

We assessed changes in sexual behavior among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over 20 years. Condom use with stable partners steadily declined from over 90 to 29 since the Swiss U U statement, with similar trajectories between men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals. Occasional partnership remained higher among MSM compared to heterosexuals even during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing.

Quantifying and Predicting Ongoing Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Transmission Dynamics in Switzerland Using a Distance-Based Clustering Approach.

BACKGROUND: Despite effective prevention approaches, ongoing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) transmission remains a public health concern indicating a need for identifying its drivers. METHODS: We combined a network-based clustering method using evolutionary distances between viral sequences with statistical learning approaches to investigate the dynamics of HIV transmission in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and to predict the drivers of ongoing transmission. RESULTS: We found that only a minority of clusters and patients acquired links to new infections between 2007 and 2020. While the growth of clusters and the probability of individual patients acquiring new links in the transmission network was associated with epidemiological, behavioral, and virological predictors, the strength of these associations decreased substantially when adjusting for network characteristics. Thus, these network characteristics can capture major heterogeneities beyond classical epidemiological parameters. When modeling the probability of a newly diagnosed patient being linked with future infections, we found that the best predictive performance (median area under the curve receiver operating characteristic AUCROC = 0.77) was achieved by models including characteristics of the network as predictors and that models excluding them performed substantially worse (median AUCROC = 0.54). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the utility of molecular epidemiology-based network approaches for analyzing and predicting ongoing HIV transmission dynamics. This approach may serve for real-time prospective assessment of HIV transmission.