Identifying Veterans Who Benefit From Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir: A Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is recommended for persons at risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but remains underutilized. Information on which eligible groups are likely to benefit from treatment is needed. METHODS: We conducted a target trial emulation study in the Veterans Health Administration comparing nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treated versus matched untreated veterans at risk for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from April 2022 through March 2023. We measured incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days. Outcomes were measured for the entire cohort, as well as among subgroups defined by 30-day risk of death or hospitalization, estimated using an ensemble risk prediction model. RESULTS: Participants were 87% male with median age 66 years and 16% unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 24 205) had a lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (1.80% vs 2.30%; risk difference [RD], -0.50% points [95% confidence interval {CI}: -.69 to -.35]) and death (0.11% vs 0.30%; RD, -0.20 [95% CI: -.24 to -.13]). The greatest reductions in combined hospitalization or death were observed in the highest risk quartile (RD -2.85 [95% CI: -3.94 to -1.76]), immunocompromised persons (RD -1.91 [95% CI: -3.09 to -.74]), and persons aged ≥75 years (RD -1.16 [95% CI: -1.73 to -.59]). No reductions were observed in the 2 lowest risk quartiles or persons younger than 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death in older veterans, those at highest predicted risk for severe outcomes, and immunocompromised groups. Benefit was not observed in younger veterans or groups at lower predicted risk for hospitalization and death.

Risk of Suicide-Related Outcomes After SARS-COV-2 Infection: Results from a Nationwide Observational Matched Cohort of US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Negative mental health-related effects of SARS-COV-2 infection are increasingly evident. However, the impact on suicide-related outcomes is poorly understood, especially among populations at elevated risk. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of suicide attempts and other self-directed violence (SDV) after SARS-COV-2 infection in a high-risk population. DESIGN: We employed an observational design supported by comprehensive electronic health records from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to examine the association of SARS-COV-2 infection with suicide attempts and other SDV within one year of infection. Veterans with SARS-COV-2 infections were matched 1:5 with non-infected comparators each month. Three periods after index were evaluated: days 1-30, days 31-365, and days 1-365. PARTICIPANTS: VHA patients infected with SARS-COV-2 between March 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021 and matched non-infected Veteran comparators. MAIN MEASURES: Suicide attempt and other SDV events for the COVID-19 and non-infected comparator groups were analyzed using incidence rates per 100,000 person years and hazard ratios from Cox regressions modeling time from matched index date to first event. Subgroups were also examined. KEY RESULTS: 198,938 veterans with SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19 group) and 992,036 comparators were included. Unadjusted one-year incidence per 100,000 for suicide attempt and other SDV was higher among the COVID-19 group: 355 vs 250 and 327 vs 235, respectively. The COVID-19 group had higher risk than comparators for suicide attempts: days 1-30 hazard ratio (HR) = 2.54 (CI:2.05, 3.15), days 31-365 HR = 1.30 (CI:1.19, 1.43) and days 1-365 HR = 1.41 (CI:1.30, 1.54), and for other SDV: days 1-30 HR = 1.94 (CI:1.51, 2.49), days 31-365 HR = 1.32 (CI:1.20, 1.45) and days 1-365 HR = 1.38 (CI:1.26, 1.51). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients had higher risks of both suicide attempts and other forms of SDV compared to uninfected comparators, which persisted for at least one year after infection. Results support suicide risk screening of those infected with SARS-COV-2 to identify opportunities to prevent self-harm.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir Among U.S. Veterans: Target Trial Emulation Studies With One-Month and Six-Month Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19. DESIGN: Three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days. RESULTS: Eighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. LIMITATION: The date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown. CONCLUSION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Effectiveness of Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against the Development of Post-COVID-19 Conditions Among U.S. Veterans : A Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been linked to the development of many post-COVID-19 conditions (PCCs) after acute infection. Limited information is available on the effectiveness of oral antivirals used to treat acute COVID-19 in preventing the development of PCCs. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of outpatient treatment of COVID-19 with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in preventing PCCs. DESIGN: Retrospective target trial emulation study comparing matched cohorts receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment for acute COVID-19. MEASUREMENTS: Cumulative incidence of 31 potential PCCs at 31 to 180 days after treatment or a matched index date, including cardiac, pulmonary, renal, thromboembolic, gastrointestinal, neurologic, mental health, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and general conditions and symptoms. RESULTS: Eighty-six percent of the participants were male, with a median age of 66 years, and 17.5% were unvaccinated. Baseline characteristics were well balanced between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and matched untreated comparators. No differences were observed between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9593) and their matched untreated comparators in the incidence of most PCCs examined individually or grouped by organ system, except for lower combined risk for venous thromboembolism and pulmonary embolism (subhazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.97]; cumulative incidence difference, -0.29 percentage points [CI, -0.52 to -0.05 percentage points]). LIMITATIONS: Ascertainment of PCCs using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes may be inaccurate. Evaluation of many outcomes could have resulted in spurious associations with combined thromboembolic events by chance. CONCLUSION: Out of 31 potential PCCs, only combined thromboembolic events seemed to be reduced by nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Design and analysis of outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection in veterans.

BACKGROUND: Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 infection impacts long-term patient outcomes requires identification of comparable persons with and without infection. We report the design and implementation of a matching strategy employed by the Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) COVID-19 Observational Research Collaboratory (CORC) to develop comparable cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected persons for the purpose of inferring potential causative long-term adverse effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Veteran population. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, we identified VA health care system patients who were and were not infected with SARS-CoV-2 on a rolling monthly basis. We generated matched cohorts within each month utilizing a combination of exact and time-varying propensity score matching based on electronic health record (EHR)-derived covariates that can be confounders or risk factors across a range of outcomes. RESULTS: From an initial pool of 126,689,864 person-months of observation, we generated final matched cohorts of 208,536 Veterans infected between March 2020-April 2021 and 3,014,091 uninfected Veterans. Matched cohorts were well-balanced on all 39 covariates used in matching after excluding patients for: no VA health care utilization; implausible age, weight, or height; living outside of the 50 states or Washington, D.C.; prior SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis per Medicare claims; or lack of a suitable match. Most Veterans in the matched cohort were male (88.3%), non-Hispanic (87.1%), white (67.2%), and living in urban areas (71.5%), with a mean age of 60.6, BMI of 31.3, Gagne comorbidity score of 1.4 and a mean of 2.3 CDC high-risk conditions. The most common diagnoses were hypertension (61.4%), diabetes (34.3%), major depression (32.2%), coronary heart disease (28.5%), PTSD (25.5%), anxiety (22.5%), and chronic kidney disease (22.5%). CONCLUSION: This successful creation of matched SARS-CoV-2 infected and uninfected patient cohorts from the largest integrated health system in the United States will support cohort studies of outcomes derived from EHRs and sample selection for qualitative interviews and patient surveys. These studies will increase our understanding of the long-term outcomes of Veterans who were infected with SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness Against Infection or Death in a National U.S. Health Care System : A Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in racially and ethnically diverse, elderly populations with high comorbidity burden. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccines. DESIGN: Target trial emulation study comparing newly vaccinated persons with matched unvaccinated controls. SETTING: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs health care system. PARTICIPANTS: Among persons receiving care in the Veterans Affairs health care system (n = 5 766 638), those who received at least 1 dose of the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine from 11 December 2020 to 25 March 2021 (n = 2 099 871) were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic, clinical, and geographic characteristics. INTERVENTION: Follow-up for SARS-CoV-2 infection or SARS-CoV-2-related death, defined as death within 30 days of infection, began after the vaccination date or an identical index date for the matched unvaccinated controls and continued until up to 30 June 2021. MEASUREMENTS: Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection or SARS-CoV-2-related death. RESULTS: Vaccinated and unvaccinated groups were well matched; both were predominantly male (92.9% vs. 93.4%), had advanced age (mean, 68.7 years in both groups), had diverse racial and ethnic distribution (for example, Black: 17.3% vs. 17.0%, Hispanic: 6.5% vs. 6.1%), and had substantial comorbidity burden. Vaccine effectiveness 7 or more days after the second vaccine dose was 69% (95% CI, 67% to 70%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection and 86% (CI, 82% to 89%) against SARS-CoV-2-related death and was similar when follow-up was extended to 31 March versus 30 June. Vaccine effectiveness against infection decreased with increasing age and comorbidity burden. LIMITATION: Predominantly male population and lack of data on SARS-CoV-2 variants. CONCLUSION: In an elderly, diverse, high-comorbidity population, COVID-19 VE against infection was substantially lower than previously reported, but VE against death was high. Complementary infection mitigation efforts remain important for pandemic control, even with vaccination. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters Against Infection, Hospitalization, and Death: A Target Trial Emulation in the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant Era.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of a third mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose (booster dose) against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is uncertain, especially in older, high-risk populations. OBJECTIVE: To determine mRNA booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death in the Omicron era by booster type, primary vaccine type, time since primary vaccination, age, and comorbidity burden. DESIGN: Retrospective matched cohort study designed to emulate a target trial of booster vaccination versus no booster, conducted from 1 December 2021 to 31 March 2022. SETTING: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs health care system. PARTICIPANTS: Persons who had received 2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses at least 5 months earlier. INTERVENTION: Booster monovalent mRNA vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech's BNT162b2 or Moderna's mRNA-1273) versus no booster. MEASUREMENTS: Booster VE. RESULTS: Each group included 490 838 well-matched persons, who were predominantly male (88%), had a mean age of 63.0 years (SD, 14.0), and were followed for up to 121 days (mean, 79.8 days). Booster VE more than 10 days after a booster dose was 42.3% (95% CI, 40.6% to 43.9%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 53.3% (CI, 48.1% to 58.0%) against SARS-CoV-2-related hospitalization, and 79.1% (CI, 71.2% to 84.9%) against SARS-CoV-2-related death. Booster VE was similar for different booster types (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273), age groups, and primary vaccination regimens but was significantly higher with longer time since primary vaccination and higher comorbidity burden. LIMITATION: Predominantly male population. CONCLUSION: Booster mRNA vaccination was highly effective in preventing death and moderately effective in preventing infection and hospitalization for up to 4 months after administration in the Omicron era. Increased uptake of booster vaccination, which is currently suboptimal, should be pursued to limit the morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in persons with high comorbidity burden. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Bilateral palpebral reduction and concurrent mycoplasmosis in a wild Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii).

A wild Agassiz's desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii, with bilateral eyelid reduction and plaques of tissue covering the superior surface of both corneas was examined in the field and subsequently submitted to the University of Florida for diagnostics. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR), from a swab of both corneas, was positive for Mycoplasma agassizii. Two months later, the tortoise was euthanatized and necropsied. There was increased bulbar exposure associated with dermal excoriation of periocular scales in both superior and inferior palpebra resulting in an increased palpebral fissure opening. Concurrently, there was bilateral conjunctivitis of the nictitating membranes and squamous metaplasia of the bulbar conjunctiva. Using PCR, Mycoplasma testudineum, another pathogen of tortoises, was identified in both nasal cavities, and the upper respiratory tract histopathological findings were consistent with those described for M. testudineum in Agassiz's desert tortoises. Although eye disease has been reported in desert and gopher (Gopherus polyphemus) tortoises with mycoplasmosis, widespread loss of palpebral tissue, conjunctivitis of the nictitans, and squamous metaplasia of the bulbar conjunctiva have not been reported in tortoises.

Trends Over Time in the Risk of Adverse Outcomes Among Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe trends in adverse outcomes among patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between February and September 2020 within a national healthcare system. METHODS: We identified enrollees in the national United States Veterans Affairs healthcare system who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between 28 February 2020 and 30 September 2020 (n = 55 952), with follow-up extending to 19 November 2020. We determined trends over time in incidence of the following outcomes that occurred within 30 days of testing positive: hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and death. RESULTS: Between February and July 2020, there were marked downward trends in the 30-day incidence of hospitalization (44.2% to 15.8%), ICU admission (20.3% to 5.3%), mechanical ventilation (12.7% to 2.2%), and death (12.5% to 4.4%), which subsequently plateaued between July and September 2020. These trends persisted after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, documented symptoms, and laboratory tests, including among subgroups of patients hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, or treated with mechanical ventilation. From February to September, there were decreases in the use of hydroxychloroquine (56.5% to 0%), azithromycin (48.3% to 16.6%), vasopressors (20.6% to 8.7%), and dialysis (11.6% to 3.8%) and increases in the use of dexamethasone (3.4% to 53.1%), other corticosteroids (4.9% to 29.0%), and remdesivir (1.7% to 45.4%) among hospitalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of adverse outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-positive patients decreased markedly between February and July, with subsequent stabilization from July to September. These trends were not explained by changes in measured baseline patient characteristics and may reflect changing treatment practices or viral pathogenicity.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Highlights Opportunities to Improve Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening and Diagnosis in a National Health System.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening and diagnosis among patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration. METHODS: Rates and predictors of screening and diagnosis were reviewed September 1, 2019-February 29, 2020 ("pre-COVID-19," N = 94,612) and April 1, 2020-September 30, 2020 ("post-COVID-19," N = 88,073). RESULTS: Screening and diagnosis rates declined by 44% and 13%, respectively, after the COVID-19 pandemic. Screening declined irrespective of liver disease severity, but diagnosis declined only in Model for End Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score <20 or Fibrosis-4 score <3.25. Fibrosis-4 score ≥3.25 and HCC risk ≥1.5%/year strongly predicted HCC diagnosis but only moderately predicted receipt of screening. DISCUSSION: Screening and diagnosis rates declined after the COVID-19 pandemic. Prioritizing screening for patients at greatest risk for HCC may reduce delays in diagnosis.

Combining FIB-4 and Liver Stiffness Into the FIB-5, a Single Model that Accurately Predicts Complications of Portal Hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to combine the fibrosis (FIB)-4 score and fibroscan-derived liver stiffness (LS) into a single score (FIB-5) that predicts incident complications of portal hypertension (PH) in persons with compensated liver disease. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified 5849 US veterans who underwent LS measurement from May 01, 2014 to June 30, 2019, and laboratory tests enabling FIB-4 calculation within 6 months of LS measurement. Patients were followed up from the LS measurement date until February 05, 2020, for incident complications of PH. We combined LS values and the individual components of the FIB-4 score (i.e. age, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count) using multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling and the machine learning algorithm eXtreme gradient boosting to develop the C-FIB-5 and X-FIB-5 models, respectively. Models were internally validated using optimism-corrected measures. RESULTS: Among 5,849 patients, the mean age was 62.8 years, 95.9% were men, and the mean follow-up time was 2.14 ± 1.21 years. Within 3 years after LS measurement date, 116 (2.0%) patients developed complications of PH. The X-FIB-5 (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.845) and C-FIB-5 scores (AUROC 0.868) demonstrated superior discrimination over LS (AUROC 0.688) and FIB-4 (AUROC 0.672) for predicting incident complications of PH. Both the X-FIB-5 and C-FIB-5 models demonstrated higher classification accuracy across all sensitivity cutoffs when compared with LS or FIB-4 alone. DISCUSSION: We combined LS and the individual components of the FIB-4 into a single scoring system (FIB-5, www.fib5.net ), which can help identify patients with compensated liver disease at risk of developing complications of PH.

Cirrhosis and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in US Veterans: Risk of Infection, Hospitalization, Ventilation, and Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whether patients with cirrhosis have increased risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the extent to which infection and cirrhosis increase the risk of adverse patient outcomes remain unclear. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We identified 88,747 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1, 2020, and May 14, 2020, in the Veterans Affairs (VA) national health care system, including 75,315 with no cirrhosis-SARS-CoV-2-negative (C0-S0), 9,826 with no cirrhosis-SARS-CoV-2-positive (C0-S1), 3,301 with cirrhosis-SARS-CoV-2-negative (C1-S0), and 305 with cirrhosis-SARS-CoV-2-positive (C1-S1). Patients were followed through June 22, 2020. Hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death were modeled in time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards regression. Patients with cirrhosis were less likely to test positive than patients without cirrhosis (8.5% vs. 11.5%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.69-0.99). Thirty-day mortality and ventilation rates increased progressively from C0-S0 (2.3% and 1.6%) to C1-S0 (5.2% and 3.6%) to C0-S1 (10.6% and 6.5%) and to C1-S1 (17.1% and 13.0%). Among patients with cirrhosis, those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were 4.1 times more likely to undergo mechanical ventilation (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.12; 95% CI, 2.79-6.10) and 3.5 times more likely to die (aHR, 3.54; 95% CI, 2.55-4.90) than those who tested negative. Among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with cirrhosis were more likely to be hospitalized (aHR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.12-1.66), undergo ventilation (aHR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.05-2.46) or die (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.18-2.30) than patients without cirrhosis. Among patients with cirrhosis and SARS-CoV-2 infection, the most important predictors of mortality were advanced age, cirrhosis decompensation, and high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a 3.5-fold increase in mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Cirrhosis was associated with a 1.7-fold increase in mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

PM2.5 air pollution exposure and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease. Particulate matter air pollution <2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) is a ubiquitous exposure primarily produced from fossil fuel combustion. Previous epidemiologic studies have been mixed. The objective of this study was to examine the association between ambient PM2.5 exposure and NAFLD among hospitalized patients in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of hospitalizations from 2001 to 2011 using the NIS, the largest nationally representative all-payer inpatient care administrative database in the United States. Average annual PM2.5 exposure was estimated by linking census tracts (based on NIS-provided hospital ZIP Codes) with a spatiotemporal exposure model. Clinical conditions were identified using hospital discharge diagnosis codes. Multivariable logistic regression incorporating discharge weights was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PM2.5 exposure and odds of NAFLD among hospitalized patients adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, year, individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, urbanicity, region, obesity, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose, dyslipidemia, hypertension, obstructive sleep apnea, and smoking. RESULTS: There were 269,705 hospitalized patients with NAFLD from 2001 to 2011 (total unweighted n = 45,433,392 hospitalizations). Higher ambient PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased odds of NAFLD among hospitalized patients (adjusted OR: 1.24 per 10 µg/m3 increase, 95% CI 1.15-1.33, p < 0.01). There were statistically significant interactions between PM2.5 exposure and age, race/ethnicity, diabetes, smoking, and region, with stronger positive associations among patients who were aged ≥45 years, non-Hispanic White or Asian/Pacific Islander, non-diabetics, non-smokers, or in the Midwest and West regions, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cross-sectional analysis of the NIS database, there was a positive association between ambient PM2.5 exposure and odds of NAFLD among hospitalized patients. Future research should examine the effects of long-term historical PM2.5 exposure and incident NAFLD cases.

No difference in hepatocellular carcinoma risk between chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir versus tenofovir.

OBJECTIVE: Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) are first-line agents for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Recent studies have challenged the assumption that these agents are equally effective at preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to determine whether the risk of HCC and mortality differ in patients with CHB treated with ETV and TDF. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Affairs patients with CHB in the USA who initiated treatment with ETV or TDF between the dates of Food and Drug Administration approval of these medications and 1 January 2017. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between antiviral therapy and HCC risk as well as the risk of death or liver transplantation. Propensity score adjustment and competing risks analysis were performed. RESULTS: We identified 2193 ETV-treated and 1094 TDF-treated patients who were followed for a mean of 5.4 years. We found no difference in the risk of HCC in ETV-treated versus TDF-treated patients (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.00, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.32). Results were similar in propensity score adjusted and competing risks analysis, and in multiple sensitivity analyses. We also found no difference in the risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: We found no difference in the risk of HCC between patients with CHB treated with ETV versus TDF. Our results support current guideline recommendations that both agents are appropriate first-line options for the treatment of CHB.

Risk Factors for Testing Positive for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in a National United States Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection could help health systems improve testing and screening strategies. The aim of this study was to identify demographic factors, comorbid conditions, and symptoms independently associated with testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: This was an observational cross-sectional study at the Veterans Health Administration, including persons tested for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) between 28 February and 14 May 2020. Associations between demographic characteristics, diagnosed comorbid conditions, and documented symptoms with testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were measured. RESULTS: Of 88 747 persons tested, 10 131 (11.4%) were SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive. Positivity was associated with older age (≥80 vs <50 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.16 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.97-2.37]), male sex (aOR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.34-1.57]), regional SARS-CoV-2 burden (≥2000 vs <400 cases/million: aOR, 5.43 [95% CI, 4.97-5.93]), urban residence (aOR, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.70-1.87]), black (aOR, 2.15 [95% CI, 2.05-2.26]) or American Indian/Alaska Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (aOR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.05-1.52]) vs white race, and Hispanic ethnicity (aOR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.40-1.65]). Obesity and diabetes were the only 2 medical conditions associated with testing positive. Documented fevers, chills, cough, and diarrhea were also associated with testing positive. The population attributable fraction of positive tests was highest for geographic location (35.3%), followed by demographic variables (27.1%), symptoms (12.0%), obesity (10.5%), and diabetes (0.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests were attributed to geographic location, demographic characteristics, and obesity, with a minor contribution of chronic comorbid conditions.

Changes in the associations of race and rurality with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and case fatality in the United States from February 2020 to March 2021: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether key sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and mortality changed over time in a population-based cohort study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a cohort of 9,127,673 persons enrolled in the United States Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system, we evaluated the independent associations of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics with SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 216,046), SARS-CoV-2-related mortality (n = 10,230), and case fatality at monthly intervals between February 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. VA enrollees had a mean age of 61 years (SD 17.7) and were predominantly male (90.9%) and White (64.5%), with 14.6% of Black race and 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity. Black (versus White) race was strongly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.10, [95% CI 4.65 to 5.59], p-value <0.001), mortality (AOR 3.85 [95% CI 3.30 to 4.50], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.56, 95% CI 2.23 to 2.93, p-value < 0.001) in February to March 2020, but these associations were attenuated and not statistically significant by November 2020 for infection (AOR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00 to 1.07] p-value = 0.05) and mortality (AOR 1.08 [95% CI 0.96 to 1.20], p-value = 0.21) and were reversed for case fatality (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.95, p-value = 0.005). American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN versus White) race was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in April and May 2020; this association declined over time and reversed by March 2021 (AOR 0.66 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.85] p-value = 0.004). Hispanic (versus non-Hispanic) ethnicity was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality during almost every time period, with no evidence of attenuation over time. Urban (versus rural) residence was associated with higher risk of infection (AOR 2.02, [95% CI 1.83 to 2.22], p-value < 0.001), mortality (AOR 2.48 [95% CI 2.08 to 2.96], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.60, p-value < 0.001) in February to April 2020, but these associations attenuated over time and reversed by September 2020 (AOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89, p-value < 0.001 for infection, AOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.83, p-value < 0.001 for mortality and AOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.93, p-value = 0.006 for case fatality). Throughout the observation period, high comorbidity burden, younger age, and obesity were consistently associated with infection, while high comorbidity burden, older age, and male sex were consistently associated with mortality. Limitations of the study include that changes over time in the associations of some risk factors may be affected by changes in the likelihood of testing for SARS-CoV-2 according to those risk factors; also, study results apply directly to VA enrollees who are predominantly male and have comprehensive healthcare and need to be confirmed in other populations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that strongly positive associations of Black and AI/AN (versus White) race and urban (versus rural) residence with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and case fatality observed early in the pandemic were ameliorated or reversed by March 2021.

Screening is associated with a lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection routinely undergo screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the efficacy of screening remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of screening with ultrasound and/or serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) on HCC-related mortality in patients with CHB. METHODS: We performed a matched case-control study of patients with CHB receiving care through the Veterans Affairs (VA) health administration. Cases were patients who died of HCC between 01/01/2004 and 12/31/2017, while controls were patients with CHB who did not die of HCC. Cases were matched to controls by CHB diagnosis date, age, sex, race/ethnicity, cirrhosis, antiviral therapy exposure, hepatitis B e antigen status, and viral load. We identified screening ultrasound and AFPs obtained in the 4 years preceding HCC diagnosis in cases and the equivalent index date in controls. Using conditional logistic regression, we compared cases and controls with respect to receipt of screening. A lower likelihood of screening in cases corresponds to an association between screening and reduced risk of HCC-related mortality. RESULTS: We identified 169 cases, matched to 169 controls. Fewer cases than controls underwent screening with either screening modality (33.7% vs. 58.6%) or both modalities (19.5% vs. 34.4%). In multivariable conditional logistic regression, screening with either modality was associated with a lower risk of HCC-related mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.21, 95% CI 0.09-0.50), as was screening with both modalities (aOR of 0.13; 95% CI 0.04-0.43). CONCLUSIONS: HCC screening was associated with a substantial reduction in HCC-related mortality in VA patients with CHB. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with hepatitis B infection have a high risk of developing liver cancer. It is therefore recommended that they undergo frequent screening for liver cancer, but whether this leads to a lower risk of dying from liver cancer is not clear. In this study, we show that liver cancer screening is associated with a reduction in the mortality from liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B infection.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Postoperative Mortality and Morbidity After Elective Versus Emergent Abdominal Surgery in a National Sample of 8193 Patients With Cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence and risk factors for mortality and morbidity in patients with cirrhosis undergoing elective or emergent abdominal surgeries. BACKGROUND: Postoperative morbidity and mortality are higher in patients with cirrhosis; variation by surgical procedure type and cirrhosis severity remain unclear. METHODS: We analyzed prospectively-collected data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Surgical Quality Improvement Program for 8193 patients with cirrhosis, 864 noncirrhotic controls with chronic hepatitis B infection, and 5468 noncirrhotic controls without chronic liver disease, who underwent abdominal surgery from 2001 to 2017. Data were analyzed using random-effects models controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis had significantly higher 30-day mortality than noncirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B [4.4% vs 1.3%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-4.98] or with no chronic liver disease (0.8%, aOR 4.68, 95% CI 3.27-6.69); mortality difference was highest in patients with Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≥10. Among patients with cirrhosis, postoperative mortality was almost 6 times higher after emergent rather than elective surgery (17.2% vs. 2.1%, aOR 5.82, 95% CI 4.66-7.27). For elective surgeries, 30-day mortality was highest after colorectal resection (7.0%) and lowest after inguinal hernia repair (0.6%). Predictors of postoperative mortality included cirrhosis-related characteristics (high MELD score, low serum albumin, ascites, encephalopathy), surgery-related characteristics (emergent vs elective, type of surgery, intraoperative blood transfusion), comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer, sepsis, ventilator dependence, functional status), and age. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate preoperative risk assessments in patients with cirrhosis should account for cirrhosis severity, comorbidities, type of procedure, and whether the procedure is emergent versus elective.

Impact of exposure to patients with COVID-19 on residents and fellows: an international survey of 1420 trainees.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how self-reported level of exposure to patients with novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) affected the perceived safety, training and well-being of residents and fellows. METHODS: We administered an anonymous, voluntary, web-based survey to a convenience sample of trainees worldwide. The survey was distributed by email and social media posts from April 20th to May 11th, 2020. Respondents were asked to estimate the number of patients with COVID-19 they cared for in March and April 2020 (0, 1-30, 31-60, >60). Survey questions addressed (1) safety and access to personal protective equipment (PPE), (2) training and professional development and (3) well-being and burnout. RESULTS: Surveys were completed by 1420 trainees (73% residents, 27% fellows), most commonly from the USA (n=670), China (n=150), Saudi Arabia (n=76) and Taiwan (n=75). Trainees who cared for a greater number of patients with COVID-19 were more likely to report limited access to PPE and COVID-19 testing and more likely to test positive for COVID-19. Compared with trainees who did not take care of patients with COVID-19 , those who took care of 1-30 patients (adjusted OR [AOR] 1.80, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.51), 31-60 patients (AOR 3.30, 95% CI 1.86 to 5.88) and >60 patients (AOR 4.03, 95% CI 2.12 to 7.63) were increasingly more likely to report burnout. Trainees were very concerned about the negative effects on training opportunities and professional development irrespective of the number of patients with COVID-19 they cared for. CONCLUSION: Exposure to patients with COVID-19 is significantly associated with higher burnout rates in physician trainees.

Reduced Incidence of Hepatic Encephalopathy and Higher Odds of Resolution Associated With Eradication of HCV Infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether a sustained virologic response (SVR) to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy reduces the risk of incident hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or whether it leads to resolution of pre-existent HE. METHODS: We identified 71,457 patients who initiated antiviral treatments in the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System from January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2015; 35,871 patients (58%) received only interferon, 4535 patients (7.2%) received DAAs plus interferon, and 21,948 patients (35%) received DAA-only regimens. We collected data from patients through October 31, 2018, for an average of 6.6 years. We evaluated the association between SVR and the development of incident HE or the resolution of pre-existent HE (defined by cessation of pharmacotherapy) as well as the risk of hospitalization with HE after adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Compared to no SVR, SVR after DAA therapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing HE (0.28 vs 1.39 per 100 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 0.41; 95% CI, 0.32-0.51). This association persisted among patients with co-morbid alcohol use disorder and diabetes as well as patients with cirrhosis (AHR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.31-0.43) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores of 9 or more (AHR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.30-0.44). SVR was also associated with reduced risk of hospitalization with HE (AHR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43-0.81). Among 2396 patients who were receiving pharmacotherapy for HE at the time of antiviral treatment, SVR was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of HE resolution for those with MELD scores below 9 (AHR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.74-2.93) but not those with MELD scores of 9 or more. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective study of veterans, we found DAA eradication of HCV infection to be associated with a 59% reduction in risk of development of HE and a > 2-fold increased likelihood of resolution of pre-existing HE in all subgroups except patients with MELD scores of 9 or more.