Inadequate specialist care referrals for high-risk asthma patients in the UK: an adult population-based cohort 2006-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To improve asthma morbidity and mortality in the UK, national asthma guidelines recommend referral to \ specialist care for the following high-risk groups, after a hospital admission for asthma, ≥3 courses of oral corticosteroids (OCS) in 12 months, an incident high-dose inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) prescription or addition of a fourth asthma drug to a patient's maintenance regimen. We sought to assess the prevalence and temporal change of referrals to identify unmet needs. METHODS: We used UK electronic healthcare records, 2006-2017, to identify high-risk asthma patients managed within primary care. Referrals to respiratory clinics in secondary care were measured, within 3 months before or 6 months after, an incident ICS, third OCS in a year, or fourth asthma drug; or 12 months after a hospital admission for asthma. A nested case-control and conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with receiving a referral. RESULTS: A total of 246,116 asthma patients were eligible. There was a slight increase in secondary care referrals from 2014 onwards but the percentage remained low with <20% in each high-risk group referred for specialist care. The factors in the past year that were most strongly associated with receiving a referral were a hospital admission or A&E visit for asthma, ≥3 OCS courses, ≥2 add-on drugs, or high-dose ICS prescription. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of high-risk asthma patients were not referred for specialist care, as recommended by national guidelines. Compared to other risk factors, those admitted to hospital were most likely to receive a referral.

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS: We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS: Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION: The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Influence of the first wave of COVID-19 on asthma inhaler prescriptions.

In the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were major concerns regarding the huge demand for asthma inhalers. Using the primary-care medical records for 614,700 asthma patients between January and June 2020, we found that there was a substantial increase in inhalers solely in March 2020. Patients significantly associated with receiving higher inhaled corticosteroid prescriptions were younger, of higher socioeconomic status, and had milder asthma.

Neuropeptide Y induced feeding in the rat is mediated by a novel receptor.

There are now six recognized neuropeptide Y (NPY) receptor subtypes (Y1-Y4 and two recently cloned distinct receptors labeled Y5), of which Y1 and one of the Y5's have been suggested could mediate the effect of NPY on feeding. The fragments NPY(2-36) and NPY(3-36), which bind Y1 only poorly, were injected intracerebroventricularly (icv) and found to have similar dose-response relationships to NPY in the stimulation of feeding. However NPY (13-36), which stimulates both Y2 and Y5, caused no increase in food intake, even at high doses. Maximal stimulation with the classical Y1 agonist [Pro34]-NPY produced only 50% of the maximum effect of NPY itself despite fully inhibiting adenylyl cyclase activity in vitro in a Y1 system. The novel fragment [Pro34]-NPY(3-36) is as effective at stimulating food intake as the classical Y1 analogue [Pro34]-NPY but bound to the Y1 receptor with only 1/20th of the affinity of NPY and failed to inhibit adenylyl cyclase through this receptor. [Pro34]-NPY(3-36) is therefore a relatively appetite-selective ligand. Coadministration of high dose NPY(13-36) and [Pro34]NPY did not enhance feeding compared with [Pro34]-NPY alone. In addition, the NPY Y1 receptor antagonist BIBP-3226, which does not bind Y2, Y4, or Y5 receptors, significantly reduced NPY induced feeding. These results indicate that the feeding effect of icv NPY involves a novel receptor and that it is functionally distinct from the recognized receptor subtypes.