Characterising patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms: evidence from nine UK longitudinal studies.

Multiple studies across global populations have established the primary symptoms characterising Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and long COVID. However, as symptoms may also occur in the absence of COVID-19, a lack of appropriate controls has often meant that specificity of symptoms to acute COVID-19 or long COVID, and the extent and length of time for which they are elevated after COVID-19, could not be examined. We analysed individual symptom prevalences and characterised patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms across nine UK longitudinal studies, totalling over 42,000 participants. Conducting latent class analyses separately in three groups ('no COVID-19', 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks', 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago'), the data did not support the presence of more than two distinct symptom patterns, representing high and low symptom burden, in each group. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of acute COVID-19, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath and muscle pains or aches. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of long COVID, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain or aches, difficulty concentrating and chest tightness. The identified symptom patterns among individuals with COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago were strongly associated with self-reported length of time unable to function as normal due to COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that the symptom pattern identified corresponds to long COVID. Building the evidence base regarding typical long COVID symptoms will improve diagnosis of this condition and the ability to elicit underlying biological mechanisms, leading to better patient access to treatment and services.

Higher dietary protein intake is associated with sarcopenia in older British twins.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia, characterised by an accelerated loss of skeletal muscle mass and function, is associated with negative outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate factors associated with skeletal muscle strength, mass and sarcopenia, particularly protein intake, and to assess whether shared twin characteristics are important. METHODS: This study utilised cross-sectional data from a study of community-dwelling twins aged ≥60 years. Multivariable logistic regression and between- and within-twin pair regression modelling were used. RESULTS: Participants (n = 3,302) were 89% female (n = 2,923), aged a mean of 72.1 (±7.3) years and composed of 858 (55%) monozygotic, 709 (45%) dizygotic twin pairs and 168 individual lone twins. Using optimal protein intake as the reference group (1.0-1.3 g/kg/day), there was no significant association between protein intake (neither high nor low) and low muscle strength, or between low protein intake and sarcopenia (odds ratio (OR) 0.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39-1.25; P = 0.229) in unadjusted models. High protein intake (>1.3 g/kg/day) was associated with low muscle mass (OR 1.76; 95% CI 1.39-2.24; P < 0.0001), while low protein intake was protective (OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.40-0.67; P < 0.0001). High protein intake was associated with sarcopenia (OR 2.04; 95% CI 1.21-3.44; P = 0.008), and this was robust to adjustment for demographic, anthropometric and dietary factors. The association between muscle strength and weight, body mass index, healthy eating index, protein intake and alpha diversity was not significantly influenced by shared twin factors, indicating greater amenability to interventions. CONCLUSIONS: High protein intake is associated with sarcopenia in a cohort of healthy older twins.

Genome-wide scan identifies novel genetic loci regulating salivary metabolite levels.

Saliva, as a biofluid, is inexpensive and non-invasive to obtain, and provides a vital tool to investigate oral health and its interaction with systemic health conditions. There is growing interest in salivary biomarkers for systemic diseases, notably cardiovascular disease. Whereas hundreds of genetic loci have been shown to be involved in the regulation of blood metabolites, leading to significant insights into the pathogenesis of complex human diseases, little is known about the impact of host genetics on salivary metabolites. Here we report the first genome-wide association study exploring 476 salivary metabolites in 1419 subjects from the TwinsUK cohort (discovery phase), followed by replication in the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) cohort. A total of 14 distinct locus-metabolite associations were identified in the discovery phase, most of which were replicated in SHIP-2. While only a limited number of the loci that are known to regulate blood metabolites were also associated with salivary metabolites in our study, we identified several novel saliva-specific locus-metabolite associations, including associations for the AGMAT (with the metabolites 4-guanidinobutanoate and beta-guanidinopropanoate), ATP13A5 (with the metabolite creatinine) and DPYS (with the metabolites 3-ureidopropionate and 3-ureidoisobutyrate) loci. Our study suggests that there may be regulatory pathways of particular relevance to the salivary metabolome. In addition, some of our findings may have clinical significance, such as the utility of the pyrimidine (uracil) degradation metabolites in predicting 5-fluorouracil toxicity and the role of the agmatine pathway metabolites as biomarkers of oral health.

Yoghurt consumption is associated with changes in the composition of the human gut microbiome and metabolome.

BACKGROUND: Yoghurt contains live bacteria that could contribute via modulation of the gut microbiota to its reported beneficial effects such as reduced body weight gain and lower incidence of type 2 diabetes. To date, the association between yoghurt consumption and the composition of the gut microbiota is underexplored. Here we used clinical variables, metabolomics, 16S rRNA and shotgun metagenomic sequencing data collected on over 1000 predominantly female UK twins to define the link between the gut microbiota and yoghurt-associated health benefits. RESULTS: According to food frequency questionnaires (FFQ), 73% of subjects consumed yoghurt. Consumers presented a healthier diet pattern (healthy eating index: beta = 2.17 ± 0.34; P = 2.72x10-10) and improved metabolic health characterised by reduced visceral fat (beta = -28.18 ± 11.71 g; P = 0.01). According to 16S rRNA gene analyses and whole shotgun metagenomic sequencing approach consistent taxonomic variations were observed with yoghurt consumption. More specifically, we identified higher abundance of species used as yoghurt starters Streptococcus thermophilus (beta = 0.41 ± 0.051; P = 6.14x10-12) and sometimes added Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis (beta = 0.30 ± 0.052; P = 1.49x10-8) in the gut of yoghurt consumers. Replication in 1103 volunteers from the LifeLines-DEEP cohort confirmed the increase of S. thermophilus among yoghurt consumers. Using food records collected the day prior to faecal sampling we showed than an increase in these two yoghurt bacteria could be transient. Metabolomics analysis revealed that B. animalis subsp. lactis was associated with 13 faecal metabolites including a 3-hydroxyoctanoic acid, known to be involved in the regulation of gut inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Yoghurt consumption is associated with reduced visceral fat mass and changes in gut microbiome including transient increase of yoghurt-contained species (i.e. S. thermophilus and B. lactis).

Impacts of dietary exposure to pesticides on faecal microbiome metabolism in adult twins.

BACKGROUND: Dietary habits have a profound influence on the metabolic activity of gut microorganisms and their influence on health. Concerns have been raised as to whether the consumption of foodstuffs contaminated with pesticides can contribute to the development of chronic disease by affecting the gut microbiome. We performed the first pesticide biomonitoring survey of the British population, and subsequently used the results to perform the first pesticide association study on gut microbiome composition and function from the TwinsUK registry. METHODS: Dietary exposure of 186 common insecticide, herbicide, or fungicide residues and the faecal microbiome in 65 twin pairs in the UK was investigated. We evaluated if dietary habits, geographic location, or the rural/urban environment, are associated with the excretion of pesticide residues. The composition and metabolic activity of faecal microbiota was evaluated using shotgun metagenomics and metabolomics respectively. We performed a targeted urine metabolomics analysis in order to evaluate whether pesticide urinary excretion was also associated with physiological changes. RESULTS: Pyrethroid and/or organophosphorus insecticide residues were found in all urine samples, while the herbicide glyphosate was found in 53% of individuals. Food frequency questionnaires showed that residues from organophosphates were higher with increased consumption of fruit and vegetables. A total of 34 associations between pesticide residue concentrations and faecal metabolite concentrations were detected. Glyphosate excretion was positively associated with an overall increased bacterial species richness, as well as to fatty acid metabolites and phosphate levels. The insecticide metabolite Br2CA, reflecting deltamethrin exposure, was positively associated with the phytoestrogens enterodiol and enterolactone, and negatively associated with some N-methyl amino acids. Urine metabolomics performed on a subset of samples did not reveal associations with the excretion of pesticide residues. CONCLUSIONS: The consumption of conventionally grown fruit and vegetables leads to higher ingestion of pesticides with unknown long-term health consequences. Our results highlight the need for future dietary intervention studies to understand effects of pesticide exposure on the gut microbiome and possible health consequences.

Characterisation, procedures and heritability of acute dietary intake in the Twins UK cohort: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Estimated food records (EFR) are a common dietary assessment method. This investigation aimed to; (1) define the reporting quality of the EFR, (2) characterise acute dietary intake and eating behaviours, (3) describe diet heritability. METHODS: A total of 1974 one-day EFR were collected from 1858 participants in the TwinsUK cohort between 2012 and 2017. EFR were assessed using a six-point scoring system to determine reporting quality. The frequency and co-occurrence of food items was examined using word clouds and co-occurrence networks. The impact of eating behaviours on weight, BMI and nutrient intake were explored using mixed-effect linear regression models. Finally, diet heritability was estimated using ACE modelling. RESULTS: We observed that 75% of EFR are of acceptable reporting quality (score > 5). Black tea and semi-skimmed milk were the most consumed items, on an individual basis (respectively 8.27, 6.25%) and paired (0.21%) as co-occurring items. Breakfast consumption had a significantly (p = 5.99 × 10- 7) greater impact on energy (kcal) (mean 1874.67 (±SD 532.42)) than skipping breakfast (1700.45 (±SD 620.98)), however only length of eating window was significantly associated with body weight (kg) (effect size 0.21 (±SD 0.10), p = 0.05) and BMI (effect size 0.08 (±SD 0.04), p = 0.04) after adjustment for relevant covariates. Lastly, we reported that both length of eating window (h2 = 33%, CI 0.24; 0.41), and breakfast consumption (h2 = 11%, CI 0.02; 0.21) were weakly heritable. CONCLUSIONS: EFR describing acute dietary intake allow for eating behaviour characterisation and can supplement habitual diet intake assessments. Novel findings of heritability warrant further investigation.

Cancer and Risk of COVID-19 Through a General Community Survey.

Individuals with cancer may be at high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and adverse outcomes. However, evidence from large population-based studies examining whether cancer and cancer-related therapy exacerbates the risk of COVID-19 infection is still limited. Data were collected from the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application since March 29 through May 8, 2020. Among 23,266 participants with cancer and 1,784,293 without cancer, we documented 10,404 reports of a positive COVID-19 test. Compared with participants without cancer, those living with cancer had a 60% increased risk of a positive COVID-19 test. Among patients with cancer, current treatment with chemotherapy or immunotherapy was associated with a 2.2-fold increased risk of a positive test. The association between cancer and COVID-19 infection was stronger among participants >65 years and males. Future studies are needed to identify subgroups by tumor types and treatment regimens who are particularly at risk for COVID-19 infection and adverse outcomes.

Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app.

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 1 960 242 unique users in Great Britain (GB) of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, we estimated that, concurrent to the GB government sanctioning lockdown, COVID-19 was distributed across GB, with evidence of 'urban hotspots'. We found a geo-social gradient associated with predicted disease prevalence suggesting urban areas and areas of higher deprivation are most affected. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported symptoms data to provide focus on geographical areas with identified risk factors.

An association between chronic widespread pain and the gut microbiome.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP) is a characteristic symptom of fibromyalgia, which has been shown to be associated with an altered gut microbiome. Microbiome studies to date have not examined the milder CWP phenotype specifically nor have they explored the role of raised BMI. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the microbiome is abnormal in CWP. METHODS: CWP was assessed using a standardized screening questionnaire in female volunteers from the TwinsUK cohort including 113 CWP cases and 1623 controls. The stool microbiome was characterized using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and amplicon sequence variants, and associations with CWP examined using linear mixed-effects models adjusting for BMI, age, diet, family relatedness and technical factors. RESULTS: Alpha diversity was significantly lower in CWP cases than controls (Mann-Whitney test, P-values 2.3e-04 and 1.2e-02, for Shannon and Simpson indices respectively). The species Coprococcus comes was significantly depleted in CWP cases (Padj = 3.04e-03). A genome-wide association study (GWAS) performed for C. comes in TwinsUK followed by meta-analysis with three Dutch cohorts (total n = 3521) resulted in nine suggestive regions, with the most convincing on chromosome 4 near the TRAM1L1 gene (rs76957229, P = 7.4e-8). A Mendelian randomization study based on the results of the GWAS did not support a causal role for C. comes on the development of CWP. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated reduced diversity in the microbiome in CWP, indicating an involvement of the gut microbiota in CWP; prospectively the microbiome may offer therapeutic opportunities for this condition.

Probable delirium is a presenting symptom of COVID-19 in frail, older adults: a cohort study of 322 hospitalised and 535 community-based older adults.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, increased vulnerability to physiological stressors, is associated with adverse outcomes. COVID-19 exhibits a more severe disease course in older, comorbid adults. Awareness of atypical presentations is critical to facilitate early identification. OBJECTIVE: To assess how frailty affects presenting COVID-19 symptoms in older adults. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of hospitalised older patients and self-report data for community-based older adults. SETTING: Admissions to St Thomas' Hospital, London with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Community-based data for older adults using the COVID Symptom Study mobile application. SUBJECTS: Hospital cohort: patients aged 65 and over (n = 322); unscheduled hospital admission between 1 March 2020 and 5 May 2020; COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swab. Community-based cohort: participants aged 65 and over enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study (n = 535); reported test-positive for COVID-19 from 24 March (application launch) to 8 May 2020. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression analysis performed on age-matched samples from hospital and community-based cohorts to ascertain association of frailty with symptoms of confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS: Hospital cohort: significantly higher prevalence of probable delirium in the frail sample, with no difference in fever or cough. Community-based cohort: significantly higher prevalence of possible delirium in frailer, older adults and fatigue and shortness of breath. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study demonstrating higher prevalence of probable delirium as a COVID-19 symptom in older adults with frailty compared to other older adults. This emphasises need for systematic frailty assessment and screening for delirium in acutely ill older patients in hospital and community settings. Clinicians should suspect COVID-19 in frail adults with delirium.

Self-Reported Symptoms of COVID-19, Including Symptoms Most Predictive of SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Are Heritable.

Susceptibility to infection such as SARS-CoV-2 may be influenced by host genotype. TwinsUK volunteers (n = 3261) completing the C-19 COVID-19 symptom tracker app allowed classical twin studies of COVID-19 symptoms, including predicted COVID-19, a symptom-based algorithm to predict true infection, derived from app users tested for SARS-CoV-2. We found heritability of 49% (32-64%) for delirium; 34% (20-47%) for diarrhea; 31% (8-52%) for fatigue; 19% (0-38%) for anosmia; 46% (31-60%) for skipped meals and 31% (11-48%) for predicted COVID-19. Heritability estimates were not affected by cohabiting or by social deprivation. The results suggest the importance of host genetics in the risk of clinical manifestations of COVID-19 and provide grounds for planning genome-wide association studies to establish specific genes involved in viral infectivity and the host immune response.

Genetic and environmental contributions to the association between mood disorder and periodontal disease: A cross-sectional study among female twins in the UK.

AIM: This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with periodontal traits considering genetic and environmental background in predominantly older female twins. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using self-reported questionnaires for periodontal traits in TwinsUK. Age-adjusted and age-stratified multivariate analyses were conducted for all twins. Subsequently, co-twin control analysis within genetically identical twins who were discordant for periodontal traits was performed by controlling for genetic confounders. RESULTS: Data of twins aged 20-91 were available in 4,143 individuals for self-reported periodontitis and 4,244 for gum bleeding. Age-adjusted model showed increasing risk in the following: smoking, anxiety/stress and depression for both periodontal traits. Within discordant monozygotic (MZ) twins (514 individuals for periodontitis and 754 for gum bleeding), the association of anxiety/stress remained significant for both periodontitis (OR 1.60, CI: 1.02-2.52) and gum bleeding (OR 1.60, CI: 1.06-2.40). A significant relationship for depression remained for periodontitis (OR 1.68, CI: 1.04-2.70), but it was no longer significant for gum bleeding. Age stratification showed that the association of mood disorders with periodontal traits was generally stronger in older group. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate analysis among discordant MZ female twins found mood disorders were independently associated with periodontal traits, suggesting that genetic/early-life environmental factors may not explain this association.

TwinsUK: The UK Adult Twin Registry Update.

TwinsUK is the largest cohort of community-dwelling adult twins in the UK. The registry comprises over 14,000 volunteer twins (14,838 including mixed, single and triplets); it is predominantly female (82%) and middle-aged (mean age 59). In addition, over 1800 parents and siblings of twins are registered volunteers. During the last 27 years, TwinsUK has collected numerous questionnaire responses, physical/cognitive measures and biological measures on over 8500 subjects. Data were collected alongside four comprehensive phenotyping clinical visits to the Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London. Such collection methods have resulted in very detailed longitudinal clinical, biochemical, behavioral, dietary and socioeconomic cohort characterization; it provides a multidisciplinary platform for the study of complex disease during the adult life course, including the process of healthy aging. The major strength of TwinsUK is the availability of several 'omic' technologies for a range of sample types from participants, which includes genomewide scans of single-nucleotide variants, next-generation sequencing, metabolomic profiles, microbiomics, exome sequencing, epigenetic markers, gene expression arrays, RNA sequencing and telomere length measures. TwinsUK facilitates and actively encourages sharing the 'TwinsUK' resource with the scientific community - interested researchers may request data via the TwinsUK website (http://twinsuk.ac.uk/resources-for-researchers/access-our-data/) for their own use or future collaboration with the study team. In addition, further cohort data collection is planned via the Wellcome Open Research gateway (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/gateways). The current article presents an up-to-date report on the application of technological advances, new study procedures in the cohort and future direction of TwinsUK.

Shared genetic influence on frailty and chronic widespread pain: a study from TwinsUK.

Introduction: frailty is an increased vulnerability to adverse health outcomes, across multiple physiological systems, with both environmental and genetic drivers. The two most commonly used measures are Rockwood's frailty index (FI) and Fried's frailty phenotype (FP). Material and methods: the present study included 3626 individuals from the TwinsUK Adult Twin Registry. We used the classical twin model to determine whether FI and FP share the same latent aetiological factors. We also investigated the relationship between frailty and chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP), another holistic age-related condition with significant clinical impact. Results: FP and FI shared underlying genetic and environmental aetiology. CWP was associated with both frailty measures, and health deficits appeared to mediate the relationship between phenotypic frailty and pain. Latent genetic factors underpinning CWP were shared with frailty. While frailty was increased in the twins reporting pain, co-twin regression analysis indicated that the relationship between CWP and frailty is reduced after accounting for shared genetic and environmental factors. Conclusions: both measures of frailty tap the same root causes, thus this work helps unify frailty research. We confirmed a strong association between CWP and frailty, and showed a large and significant shared genetic aetiology of both phenomena. Our findings argue against pain being a significant causative factor in the development of frailty, favouring common causation. This study highlights the need to manage CWP in frail individuals and undertake a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in individuals presenting with CWP. Finally, the search for genetic factors underpinning CWP and frailty could be aided by integrating measures of pain and frailty.

Effect of gut microbiome modulation on muscle function and cognition: the PROMOTe randomised controlled trial.

Studies suggest that inducing gut microbiota changes may alter both muscle physiology and cognitive behaviour. Gut microbiota may play a role in both anabolic resistance of older muscle, and cognition. In this placebo controlled double blinded randomised controlled trial of 36 twin pairs (72 individuals), aged ≥60, each twin pair are block randomised to receive either placebo or prebiotic daily for 12 weeks. Resistance exercise and branched chain amino acid (BCAA) supplementation is prescribed to all participants. Outcomes are physical function and cognition. The trial is carried out remotely using video visits, online questionnaires and cognitive testing, and posting of equipment and biological samples. The prebiotic supplement is well tolerated and results in a changed gut microbiome [e.g., increased relative Bifidobacterium abundance]. There is no significant difference between prebiotic and placebo for the primary outcome of chair rise time (ß = 0.579; 95% CI -1.080-2.239 p = 0.494). The prebiotic improves cognition (factor score versus placebo (ß = -0.482; 95% CI,-0.813, -0.141; p = 0.014)). Our results demonstrate that cheap and readily available gut microbiome interventions may improve cognition in our ageing population. We illustrate the feasibility of remotely delivered trials for older people, which could reduce under-representation of older people in clinical trials. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04309292.

Associations between host genetic variants and Herpes Simplex Labialis in the TwinsUK cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Previous literature supports controversial results about the role of host genetic factors in the reactivation of Herpes Simplex Labialis (HSL). The objective of this study is to explore the association between different putative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and self-reported HSL reactivation in the TwinsUK cohort. DESIGN: 1761 participant were recruited for this study from the TwinsUK register. Blood collection and HSL questionnaire were completed for a subset of 595 participants (age 61.9, dizygotic twins 62.8%). Blood was stored at -80 °C and DNA analysed from all samples. The potential associations between candidate SNPs and HSL were assessed using a set of 40 SNPs, including SNPs previously correlated with HSL disease and other SNPs previously associated with the oral microbiota. RESULTS: 235 participants reported to have experienced 'cold sores' at least once in their lives, and 160 reported reinfection episodes. No association was detected between rs243588, rs1047978, rs1062202 genotypes and both occurrence of cold sores (p = 0.172, p = 0.360, p = 0.742) and their recurrence (p = 0.160, p = 0.105,p = 0.746). Among other investigated SNPs, a nominal significant association was detected between Vitamin D Receptor (VDR) Fok I (rs2228570) and both history of HSL (p = .001) and its recurrence (p = .007). CONCLUSIONS: A single nucleotide polymorphism in the VDR gene may be correlated with cold sores and their recurrence.

PPI-Induced Changes in Plasma Metabolite Levels Influence Total Hip Bone Mineral Density in a UK Cohort.

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are among the most used drugs in the UK. PPI use has been associated with decreased bone mineral density (BMD) and increased fracture risk, although these results have been inconsistent. We hypothesized that PPI could modulate BMD by altering gut and/or host systemic metabolic environments. Using data from more than 5000 British male and female individuals, we confirmed that PPI use is associated with decreased lumbar spine and total hip BMD. This effect was not mediated through the gut microbiome. We suggest here that PPI use may influence total hip BMD, both directly and indirectly, via plasma metabolites involved in the sex hormone pathway. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent economic inactivity and employment status: pooled analyses of five linked longitudinal surveys.

Introduction: Following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, record numbers of people became economically inactive (i.e., neither working nor looking for work), or non-employed (including unemployed job seekers and economically inactive people). A possible explanation is people leaving the workforce after contracting COVID-19. We investigated whether testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 is related to subsequent economic inactivity and non-employment, among people employed pre-pandemic. Methods: The data came from five UK longitudinal population studies held by both the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UK LLC; primary analyses) and the UK Data Service (UKDS; secondary analyses). We pooled data from five long established studies (1970 British Cohort Study, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 1958 National Child Development Study, Next Steps, and Understanding Society). The study population were aged 25-65 years between March 2020 to March 2021 and employed pre-pandemic. Outcomes were economic inactivity and non-employment measured at the time of the last follow-up survey (November 2020 to March 2021, depending on study). For the UK LLC sample (n=8,174), COVID-19 infection was indicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in NHS England records. For the UKDS sample we used self-reported measures of COVID-19 infection (n=13,881). Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) adjusting for potential confounders including sociodemographic variables, pre-pandemic health and occupational class. Results: Testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was very weakly associated with economic inactivity (OR 1.08 95%CI 0.68-1.73) and non-employment status (OR 1.09. 95%CI 0.77-1.55) in the primary analyses. In secondary analyses, self-reported test-confirmed COVID-19 was not associated with either economic inactivity (OR 1.01 95%CI 0.70-1.44) or non-employment status (OR 1.03 95%CI 0.79-1.35). Conclusions: Among people employed pre-pandemic, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was either weakly or not associated with increased economic inactivity or non-employment. Research on the recent increases in economic inactivity should focus on other potential causes.

Antibody levels following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: associations with post-vaccination infection and risk factors in two UK longitudinal studies.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. Higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike antibodies are known to be associated with increased protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, variation in antibody levels and risk factors for lower antibody levels following each round of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have not been explored across a wide range of socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and health factors within population-based cohorts. Methods: Samples were collected from 9361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Cross-sectional sampling was undertaken jointly in April-May 2021 (TwinsUK, N=4256; ALSPAC, N=4622), and in TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022 (N=3575). Variation in antibody levels after first, second, and third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables were analysed. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables. Results: Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had threefold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next 6-9 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.0), compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK 'Shielded Patient List' had consistently greater odds (two- to fourfold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations. Conclusions: These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies. Funding: Antibody testing was funded by UK Health Security Agency. The National Core Studies program is funded by COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing - National Core Study (LHW-NCS) HMT/UKRI/MRC ([MC_PC_20030] and [MC_PC_20059]). Related funding was also provided by the NIHR 606 (CONVALESCENCE grant [COV-LT-0009]). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: [217065/Z/19/Z]) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC.

Vaccination against the virus that causes COVID-19 triggers the body to produce antibodies that help fight future infections. But some people generate more antibodies after vaccination than others. People with lower levels of antibodies are more likely to get COVID-19 in the future. Identifying people with low antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination is important. It could help decide who receives priority for future vaccination. Previous studies show that people with certain health conditions produce fewer antibodies after one or two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. For example, people with weakened immune systems. Now that third booster doses are available, it is vital to determine if they increase antibody levels for those most at risk of severe COVID-19. Cheetham et al. show that a third booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine boosts antibodies to high levels in 90% of individuals, including those at increased risk. In the experiments, Cheetham et al. measured antibodies against the virus that causes COVID-19 in 9,361 individuals participating in two large long-term health studies in the United Kingdom. The experiments found that UK individuals advised to shield from the virus because they were at increased risk of complications had lower levels of antibodies after one or two vaccine doses than individuals without such risk factors. This difference was also seen after a third booster dose, but overall antibody levels had large increases. People who received the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine as their first dose also had lower antibody levels after one or two doses than those who received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine first. Positively, this difference in antibody levels was no longer seen after a third booster dose. Individuals with lower antibody levels after their first dose were also more likely to have a case of COVID-19 in the following months. Antibody levels were high in most individuals after the third dose. The results may help governments and public health officials identify individuals who may need extra protection after the first two vaccine doses. They also support current policies promoting booster doses of the vaccine and may support prioritizing booster doses for those at the highest risk from COVID-19 in future vaccination campaigns.