Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential.

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration.

Extensive ecosystem restoration is increasingly seen as being central to conserving biodiversity1 and stabilizing the climate of the Earth2. Although ambitious national and global targets have been set, global priority areas that account for spatial variation in benefits and costs have yet to be identified. Here we develop and apply a multicriteria optimization approach that identifies priority areas for restoration across all terrestrial biomes, and estimates their benefits and costs. We find that restoring 15% of converted lands in priority areas could avoid 60% of expected extinctions while sequestering 299 gigatonnes of CO2-30% of the total CO2 increase in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. The inclusion of several biomes is key to achieving multiple benefits. Cost effectiveness can increase up to 13-fold when spatial allocation is optimized using our multicriteria approach, which highlights the importance of spatial planning. Our results confirm the vast potential contributions of restoration to addressing global challenges, while underscoring the necessity of pursuing these goals synergistically.

The number of tree species on Earth.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil.

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Green deserts, but not always: A global synthesis of native woody species regeneration under tropical tree monocultures.

Tree monocultures constitute an increasing fraction of the global tree cover and are the dominant tree-growing strategy of forest landscape restoration commitments. Their advantages to produce timber are well known, but their value for biodiversity is highly controversial and context dependent. Therefore, understanding whether, and in which conditions, they can harbor native species regeneration is crucial. Here, we conducted meta-analyses based on a global survey of the literature and on a database created with local, unpublished studies throughout Brazil to evaluate the regeneration potential of native species under tree monocultures and the way management influences this regeneration. Native woody species regeneration under tree monocultures harbors a substantial fraction of the diversity (on average 40% and 68% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) and abundance (on average 25% and 60% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) of regeneration observed in natural forests. Plantations with longer rotation lengths, composed of native tree species, and located adjacent to forest remnants harbor more species. Pine plantations harbor more native individuals than eucalypt plantations, and the abundance of regenerating trees is higher in sites with higher mean temperatures. Species-area curves revealed that the number of woody species under pine and eucalypt plantations in Brazil is 606 and 598 species, respectively, over an aggregated sampled area of ca. 12 ha. We highlight that the understory of tree monocultures can harbor a considerable diversity of regenerating native species at the landscape and regional scales, but this diversity strongly depends on management. Long-rotation length and favorable location are key factors for woody regeneration success under tropical tree monocultures. Therefore, tree monocultures can play a role in forest landscape restoration and conservation, but only if they are planned and managed for achieving this purpose.

Functional recovery of secondary tropical forests.

One-third of all Neotropical forests are secondary forests that regrow naturally after agricultural use through secondary succession. We need to understand better how and why succession varies across environmental gradients and broad geographic scales. Here, we analyze functional recovery using community data on seven plant characteristics (traits) of 1,016 forest plots from 30 chronosequence sites across the Neotropics. By analyzing communities in terms of their traits, we enhance understanding of the mechanisms of succession, assess ecosystem recovery, and use these insights to propose successful forest restoration strategies. Wet and dry forests diverged markedly for several traits that increase growth rate in wet forests but come at the expense of reduced drought tolerance, delay, or avoidance, which is important in seasonally dry forests. Dry and wet forests showed different successional pathways for several traits. In dry forests, species turnover is driven by drought tolerance traits that are important early in succession and in wet forests by shade tolerance traits that are important later in succession. In both forests, deciduous and compound-leaved trees decreased with forest age, probably because microclimatic conditions became less hot and dry. Our results suggest that climatic water availability drives functional recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in a convergence of community trait values with forest age when vegetation cover builds up. Within plots, the range in functional trait values increased with age. Based on the observed successional trait changes, we indicate the consequences for carbon and nutrient cycling and propose an ecologically sound strategy to improve forest restoration success.

Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change.

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value < .05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB-up to 40% compared to the baseline-are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.

Global trends in nature's contributions to people.

Declining biodiversity and ecosystem functions put many of nature's contributions to people at risk. We review and synthesize the scientific literature to assess 50-y global trends across a broad range of nature's contributions. We distinguish among trends in potential and realized contributions of nature, as well as environmental conditions and the impacts of changes in nature on human quality of life. We find declining trends in the potential for nature to contribute in the majority of material, nonmaterial, and regulating contributions assessed. However, while the realized production of regulating contributions has decreased, realized production of agricultural and many material commodities has increased. Environmental declines negatively affect quality of life, but social adaptation and the availability of substitutes partially offset this decline for some of nature's contributions. Adaptation and substitutes, however, are often imperfect and come at some cost. For many of the contributions of nature, we find differing trends across different countries and regions, income classes, and ethnic and social groups, reinforcing the argument for more consistent and equitable measurement.

Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species.

Understanding how evolutionary history and the coordination between trait trade-off axes shape the drought tolerance of trees is crucial to predict forest dynamics under climate change. Here, we compiled traits related to drought tolerance and the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trade-off axes in 601 tropical woody species to explore their covariations and phylogenetic signals. We found that xylem resistance to embolism (P50) determines the risk of hydraulic failure, while the functional significance of leaf turgor loss point (TLP) relies on its coordination with water use strategies. P50 and TLP exhibit weak phylogenetic signals and substantial variation within genera. TLP is closely associated with the fast-slow trait axis: slow species maintain leaf functioning under higher water stress. P50 is associated with both the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trait axes: slow and small species exhibit more resistant xylem. Lower leaf phosphorus concentration is associated with more resistant xylem, which suggests a (nutrient and drought) stress-tolerance syndrome in the tropics. Overall, our results imply that (1) drought tolerance is under strong selective pressure in tropical forests, and TLP and P50 result from the repeated evolutionary adaptation of closely related taxa, and (2) drought tolerance is coordinated with the ecological strategies governing tropical forest demography. These findings provide a physiological basis to interpret the drought-induced shift toward slow-growing, smaller, denser-wooded trees observed in the tropics, with implications for forest restoration programmes.

A comprehensive experimental assessment of glyphosate ecological impacts in riparian forest restoration.

Competition with invasive grasses is one of the most important drivers of tree planting failures, especially in tropical forests. A widely disseminated weeding approach has been glyphosate spraying, the most used herbicide globally in forestry and ecosystem restoration. However, glyphosate use in restoration is highly controversial and requires further studies to elucidate its effects on restoration processes and the environment. We evaluated the use of glyphosate in riparian forest restoration and its impacts on tree planting costs, weed control efficiency, planted seedling performance, herbaceous and woody species regeneration, soil bacteria, and environmental contamination, using mowing treatments as a reference and based on a controlled experiment established in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Glyphosate spraying reduced by one-half and one-third the accumulated aboveground biomass of, respectively, weeds in general and of the invasive grass Urochloa decumbens compared to mowing treatments, and it reduced the cost by half. The performance of planted tree seedlings was markedly favored by glyphosate spraying compared to mowing treatments, as expressed by improved seedling height (~twice higher), crown area (~5× higher), and basal area (~5× higher); the regeneration of both native woody and ruderal herbaceous plants were also enhanced. Neither glyphosate nor its metabolite Aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) residues were detected in either water runoff or soil samples, but they were found at relatively high concentrations in the runoff sediments (from 1.32 to 24.75 mg/kg for glyphosate and from 1.75 to 76.13 mg/kg for AMPA). Soil bacteria communities differed before and after glyphosate spraying in comparison to mowing plots (without glyphosate). Glyphosate spraying was far more cost effective than mowing for controlling U. decumbens and greatly improved the performance of planted tree seedlings and natural regeneration, while not leaving residues in soil and water. However, the changes in the structure of bacterial communities and high concentration of glyphosate and AMPA residues in runoff sediments highlight the need for caution when using this herbicide in riparian buffers. We present alternatives for reducing glyphosate use and minimizing its risks in tree planting initiatives.

Predicting landscape-scale biodiversity recovery by natural tropical forest regrowth.

Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9-51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth.

Predicción de la Recuperación de la Biodiversidad a Escala de Paisaje según la Regeneración Natural del Bosque Tropical Resumen La regeneración natural del bosque es una solución rentable para la recuperación de la biodiversidad basada en la naturaleza, sin embargo, los diferentes factores socioambientales pueden derivar en resultados variables. Cómo predecir la ubicación en donde la regeneración natural del bosque recuperará los niveles de biodiversidad, los cuales son un indicador del valor de la conservación y un suministro potencial de diferentes servicios ambientales, es un vacío de conocimiento importante en la planeación de la restauración forestal. Buscamos predecir y mapear la recuperación a escala de paisaje de la riqueza de especies y la abundancia total de vertebrados, invertebrados y plantas en bosques tropicales y subtropicales de segundo crecimiento para guiar la planeación de la restauración. Primero, realizamos un metaanálisis mundial para cuantificar la medida a la que se desvió la recuperación de la riqueza y la abundancia total de especies en los bosques de segundo crecimiento de los valores de biodiversidad en los bosques antiguos referenciales en el mismo paisaje. Después, utilizamos un algoritmo de aprendizaje automático y un conjunto integral de factores socioambientales para predecir espacialmente la desviación a escala de paisaje para después mapearla. Los modelos explicaron en promedio el 34% de la varianza observada en la recuperación (rango de 9-51%). La recuperación de la biodiversidad a escala de paisaje en los bosques de segundo crecimiento pudo predecirse espacialmente con base en los factores socioambientales del paisaje (demografía humana, uso y cobertura del suelo, alteraciones naturales y antropogénicas, productividad del ecosistema, tipo de topografía y de suelo); fue significativamente más alta para la riqueza de especies que para la abundancia total de vertebrados (desviación media pronosticada ajustada al rango de 0.09 versus 0.34) e invertebrados (0.2 versus 0.35) pero no para las plantas (las cuales mostraron una recuperación similar para ambas medidas [0.24 versus 0.25]); y tuvo una correlación positiva para la abundancia de especies de plantas y vertebrados (Pearson r =0.45, p=0.001). Nuestra estrategia puede ayudar a identificar los paisajes de bosques tropicales y subtropicales con un potencial alto para la recuperación de la biodiversidad por medio de la regeneración natural del bosque.

Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests.

Land-use change occurs nowhere more rapidly than in the tropics, where the imbalance between deforestation and forest regrowth has large consequences for the global carbon cycle. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the rate of biomass recovery in secondary forests, and how these rates are influenced by climate, landscape, and prior land use. Here we analyse aboveground biomass recovery during secondary succession in 45 forest sites and about 1,500 forest plots covering the major environmental gradients in the Neotropics. The studied secondary forests are highly productive and resilient. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years was on average 122 megagrams per hectare (Mg ha(-1)), corresponding to a net carbon uptake of 3.05 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 11 times the uptake rate of old-growth forests. Aboveground biomass stocks took a median time of 66 years to recover to 90% of old-growth values. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years varied 11.3-fold (from 20 to 225 Mg ha(-1)) across sites, and this recovery increased with water availability (higher local rainfall and lower climatic water deficit). We present a biomass recovery map of Latin America, which illustrates geographical and climatic variation in carbon sequestration potential during forest regrowth. The map will support policies to minimize forest loss in areas where biomass resilience is naturally low (such as seasonally dry forest regions) and promote forest regeneration and restoration in humid tropical lowland areas with high biomass resilience.

Ten golden rules for reforestation to optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery and livelihood benefits.

Urgent solutions to global climate change are needed. Ambitious tree-planting initiatives, many already underway, aim to sequester enormous quantities of carbon to partly compensate for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which are a major cause of rising global temperatures. However, tree planting that is poorly planned and executed could actually increase CO2 emissions and have long-term, deleterious impacts on biodiversity, landscapes and livelihoods. Here, we highlight the main environmental risks of large-scale tree planting and propose 10 golden rules, based on some of the most recent ecological research, to implement forest ecosystem restoration that maximizes rates of both carbon sequestration and biodiversity recovery while improving livelihoods. These are as follows: (1) Protect existing forest first; (2) Work together (involving all stakeholders); (3) Aim to maximize biodiversity recovery to meet multiple goals; (4) Select appropriate areas for restoration; (5) Use natural regeneration wherever possible; (6) Select species to maximize biodiversity; (7) Use resilient plant material (with appropriate genetic variability and provenance); (8) Plan ahead for infrastructure, capacity and seed supply; (9) Learn by doing (using an adaptive management approach); and (10) Make it pay (ensuring the economic sustainability of the project). We focus on the design of long-term strategies to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises and support livelihood needs. We emphasize the role of local communities as sources of indigenous knowledge, and the benefits they could derive from successful reforestation that restores ecosystem functioning and delivers a diverse range of forest products and services. While there is no simple and universal recipe for forest restoration, it is crucial to build upon the currently growing public and private interest in this topic, to ensure interventions provide effective, long-term carbon sinks and maximize benefits for biodiversity and people.

ATLANTIC EPIPHYTES: a data set of vascular and non-vascular epiphyte plants and lichens from the Atlantic Forest.

Epiphytes are hyper-diverse and one of the frequently undervalued life forms in plant surveys and biodiversity inventories. Epiphytes of the Atlantic Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems in the world, have high endemism and radiated recently in the Pliocene. We aimed to (1) compile an extensive Atlantic Forest data set on vascular, non-vascular plants (including hemiepiphytes), and lichen epiphyte species occurrence and abundance; (2) describe the epiphyte distribution in the Atlantic Forest, in order to indicate future sampling efforts. Our work presents the first epiphyte data set with information on abundance and occurrence of epiphyte phorophyte species. All data compiled here come from three main sources provided by the authors: published sources (comprising peer-reviewed articles, books, and theses), unpublished data, and herbarium data. We compiled a data set composed of 2,095 species, from 89,270 holo/hemiepiphyte records, in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, recorded from 1824 to early 2018. Most of the records were from qualitative data (occurrence only, 88%), well distributed throughout the Atlantic Forest. For quantitative records, the most common sampling method was individual trees (71%), followed by plot sampling (19%), and transect sampling (10%). Angiosperms (81%) were the most frequently registered group, and Bromeliaceae and Orchidaceae were the families with the greatest number of records (27,272 and 21,945, respectively). Ferns and Lycophytes presented fewer records than Angiosperms, and Polypodiaceae were the most recorded family, and more concentrated in the Southern and Southeastern regions. Data on non-vascular plants and lichens were scarce, with a few disjunct records concentrated in the Northeastern region of the Atlantic Forest. For all non-vascular plant records, Lejeuneaceae, a family of liverworts, was the most recorded family. We hope that our effort to organize scattered epiphyte data help advance the knowledge of epiphyte ecology, as well as our understanding of macroecological and biogeographical patterns in the Atlantic Forest. No copyright restrictions are associated with the data set. Please cite this Ecology Data Paper if the data are used in publication and teaching events.