Efficient numerical computation of the basic reproduction number for structured populations.

As widely known, the basic reproduction number plays a key role in weighing birth/infection and death/recovery processes in several models of population dynamics. In this general setting, its characterization as the spectral radius of next generation operators is rather elegant, but simultaneously poses serious obstacles to its practical determination. In this work we address the problem numerically by reducing the relevant operators to matrices through a pseudospectral collocation, eventually computing the sought quantity by solving finite-dimensional eigenvalue problems. The approach is illustrated for two classes of models, respectively from ecology and epidemiology. Several numerical tests demonstrate experimentally important features of the method, like fast convergence and influence of the smoothness of the models' coefficients. Examples of robust analysis of instances of specific models are also presented to show potentialities and ease of application.

Host coexistence in a model for two host-one parasitoid interactions.

Building from a continuous-time host-parasitoid model introduced by Murdoch et al. (Am Nat 129:263-282, 1987), we study the dynamics of a 2 host-parasitoid model assuming, for the sake of simplicity, that larval stages have a fixed duration. If each host is subjected to density-dependent mortality in its larval stage, we obtain explicit conditions for the existence of an equilibrium where the two host species coexist with the parasitoid. However, if host demography is density-independent, equilibrium coexistence is impossible. If at least one of the 1 host-parasitoid systems has an oscillatory dynamics (which happens under some parameter values), we found, through numerical bifurcation, that coexistence is favoured. Coexistence between the two hosts may occur along a periodic solution even without density-dependence. Models of this type may be relevant for the use of parasitoids as biocontrol agents of insect pests.

A practical approach to computing Lyapunov exponents of renewal and delay equations.

We propose a method for computing the Lyapunov exponents of renewal equations (delay equations of Volterra type) and of coupled systems of renewal and delay differential equations. The method consists of the reformulation of the delay equation as an abstract differential equation, the reduction of the latter to a system of ordinary differential equations via pseudospectral collocation and the application of the standard discrete QR method. The effectiveness of the method is shown experimentally and a MATLAB implementation is provided.

A deeper understanding of system interactions can explain contradictory field results on pesticide impact on honey bees.

While there is widespread concern regarding the impact of pesticides on honey bees, well-replicated field experiments, to date, have failed to provide clear insights on pesticide effects. Here, we adopt a systems biology approach to gain insights into the web of interactions amongst the factors influencing honey bee health. We put the focus on the properties of the system that depend upon its architecture and not on the strength, often unknown, of each single interaction. Then we test in vivo, on caged honey bees, the predictions derived from this modelling analysis. We show that the impact of toxic compounds on honey bee health can be shaped by the concurrent stressors affecting bees. We demonstrate that the immune-suppressive capacity of the widespread pathogen of bees, deformed wing virus, can introduce a critical positive feed-back loop in the system causing bistability, i.e., two stable equilibria. Therefore, honey bees under similar initial conditions can experience different consequences when exposed to the same stressor, including prolonged survival or premature death. The latter can generate an increased vulnerability of the hive to dwindling and collapse. Our conclusions reconcile contrasting field-testing outcomes and have important implications for the application of field studies to complex systems.

How fast is the linear chain trick? A rigorous analysis in the context of behavioral epidemiology.

A prototype SIR model with vaccination at birth is analyzed in terms of the stability of its endemic equilibrium. The information available on the disease influences the parents' decision on whether vaccinate or not. This information is modeled with a delay according to the Erlang distribution. The latter includes the degenerate case of fading memory as well as the limiting case of concentrated memory. The linear chain trick is the essential tool used to investigate the general case. Besides its novel analysis and that of the concentrated case, it is showed that through the linear chain trick a distributed delay approaches a discrete delay at a linear rate. A rigorous proof is given in terms of the eigenvalues of the associated linearized problems and extension to general models is also provided. The work is completed with several computations and relevant experimental results.

Collocation of Next-Generation Operators for Computing the Basic Reproduction Number of Structured Populations.

We contribute a full analysis of theoretical and numerical aspects of the collocation approach recently proposed by some of the authors to compute the basic reproduction number of structured population dynamics as spectral radius of certain infinite-dimensional operators. On the one hand, we prove under mild regularity assumptions on the models coefficients that the concerned operators are compact, so that the problem can be properly recast as an eigenvalue problem thus allowing for numerical discretization. On the other hand, we prove through detailed and rigorous error and convergence analyses that the method performs the expected spectral accuracy. Several numerical tests validate the proposed analysis by highlighting diverse peculiarities of the investigated approach.

Discrete or distributed delay? Effects on stability of population growth.

The growth of a population subject to maturation delay is modeled by using either a discrete delay or a delay continuously distributed over the population. The occurrence of stability switches (stable-unstable-stable) of the positive equilibrium as the delay increases is investigated in both cases. Necessary and sufficient conditions are provided by analyzing the relevant characteristic equations. It is shown that for any choice of parameter values for which the discrete delay model presents stability switches there exists a maximum delay variance beyond which no switch occurs for the continuous delay model: the delay variance has a stabilizing effect. Moreover, it is illustrated how, in the presence of switches, the unstable delay domain is as larger as lower is the ratio between the juveniles and the adults mortality rates.

A numerical approach for investigating the stability of equilibria for structured population models.

We are interested in the asymptotic stability of equilibria of structured populations modelled in terms of systems of Volterra functional equations coupled with delay differential equations. The standard approach based on studying the characteristic equation of the linearized system is often involved or even unattainable. Therefore, we propose and investigate a numerical method to compute the eigenvalues of the associated infinitesimal generator. The latter is discretized by using a pseudospectral approach, and the eigenvalues of the resulting matrix are the sought approximations. An algorithm is presented to explicitly construct the matrix from the model coefficients and parameters. The method is tested first on academic examples, showing its suitability also for a class of mathematical models much larger than that mentioned above, including neutral- and mixed-type equations. Applications to cannibalism and consumer-resource models are then provided in order to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed technique, especially for studying bifurcations.

Stability analysis of age-structured population equations by pseudospectral differencing methods.

In this paper a numerical scheme to investigate the stability of linear models of age-structured population dynamics is studied. The method is based on the discretization of the infinitesimal generator associated to the semigroup of the solution operator by using pseudospectral differencing techniques, hence following the approach recently proposed in Breda et al. [SIAM J Sci Comput 27(2): 482-495, 2005] for delay differential equations. The method computes the rightmost characteristic roots and it is shown to converge with spectral accuracy behavior.