Population dynamics of the Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, during rapid range expansion in New York State.

Recent changes in climate and human land-use have resulted in alterations of the geographic range of many species, including human pathogens. Geographic range expansion and population growth of human pathogens increase human disease risk. Relatively little empirical work has investigated the impact of range changes on within-population variability, a contributor to both colonization success and adaptive potential, during the precise time in which populations are colonized. This is likely due to the difficulties of collecting appropriate natural samples during the dynamic phase of migration and colonization. We systematically collected blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) across New York State (NY), USA, between 2006 and 2019, a time period coinciding with a rapid range expansion of ticks and their associated pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease. These samples provide a unique opportunity to investigate the population dynamics of human pathogens as they expand into novel territory. We observed that founder effects were short-lived, as gene flow from long-established populations brought almost all B. burgdorferi lineages to newly colonized populations within just a few years of colonization. By 7 years post-colonization, B. burgdorferi lineage frequency distributions were indistinguishable from long-established sites, indicating that local B. burgdorferi populations experience similar selective pressures despite geographic separation. The B. burgdorferi lineage dynamics elucidate the processes underlying the range expansion and demonstrate that migration into, and selection within, newly colonized sites operate on different time scales.

Evolution of intermediate latency strategies in seasonal parasites.

Traditional mechanistic trade-offs between transmission and parasite latency period length are foundational for nearly all theories on the evolution of parasite life-history strategies. Prior theoretical studies demonstrate that seasonal host activity can generate a trade-off for obligate-host killer parasites that selects for intermediate latency periods in the absence of a mechanistic trade-off between transmission and latency period lengths. Extensions of these studies predict that host seasonal patterns can lead to evolutionary bistability for obligate-host killer parasites in which two evolutionarily stable strategies, a shorter and longer latency period, are possible. Here we demonstrate that these conclusions from previously published studies hold for non-obligate host killer parasites. That is, seasonal host activity can select for intermediate parasite latency periods for non-obligate killer parasites in the absence of a trade-off between transmission and latency period length and can maintain multiple evolutionarily stable parasite life-history strategies. These results reinforce the hypothesis that host seasonal activity can act as a major selective force on parasite life-history evolution by extending the narrower prior theory to encompass a greater range of disease systems.

Assessing the impact of areal unit selection and the modifiable areal unit problem on associative statistics between cases of tick-borne disease and entomological indices.

The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a cause of statistical and visual bias when aggregating data according to spatial units, particularly when spatial units may be changed arbitrarily. The MAUP is a concern in vector-borne disease research when entomological metrics gathered from point-level sampling data are related to epidemiological data aggregated to administrative units like counties or ZIP Codes. Here, we assess the statistical impact of the MAUP when calculating correlations between randomly aggregated cases of anaplasmosis in New York State during 2017 and a geostatistical layer of an entomological risk index for Anaplasma phagocytophilum in blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) collected during the fall of 2017. Correlations were also calculated using various administrative boundaries for comparison. We also demonstrate the impact of the MAUP on data visualization using choropleth maps and offer pycnophylactic interpolation as an alternative. Polygon simulations indicate that increasing the number of polygons decreases correlation coefficients and their variability. Correlation coefficients calculated using ZIP Code tabulation area and Census tract polygons were beyond 4 standard deviations from the mean of the simulated correlation coefficients. These results indicate that using smaller polygons may not best incorporate the geographical context of the tick-borne disease system, despite the tendency of researchers to strive for more granular spatial data and associations.