Pre-existing sleep problems as a predictor of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19.

Several months after COVID-19 many individuals still report persisting symptoms, the so-called 'post-COVID-19 syndrome'. An immunological dysfunction is one of the main pathophysiological hypotheses. As sleep is central to the functioning of the immune system, we investigated whether self-reported pre-existing sleep disturbance might be an independent risk factor for the development of post-COVID-19 syndrome. A total of 11,710 participants of a cross-sectional survey (all tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) were classified into probable post-COVID-19 syndrome, an intermediate group, and unaffected participants at an average of 8.5 months after infection. The case definition was based on newly occurring symptoms of at least moderate severity and ≥20% reduction in health status and/or working capacity. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated to investigate the association between pre-existing sleep disturbances and subsequent development of post-COVID-19 syndrome while controlling for a variety of demographic, lifestyle, and health factors. Pre-existing sleep disturbances were found to be an independent predictor of subsequent probable post-COVID-19 syndrome (adjusted odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval 2.27-3.24). Sleep disturbances as part of the post-COVID-19 syndrome were reported by more than half of the participants and appeared to be a new symptom and to occur independent of a mood disorder in most cases. Recognition of disturbed sleep as an important risk factor for post-COVID-19 syndrome should promote improved clinical management of sleep disorders in the context of COVID-19. Further, it may stimulate further research on the effect of improving sleep on the prognosis of COVID-19 long-term sequelae and other post-viral conditions.

Risk factors associated with an outbreak of COVID-19 in a meat processing plant in southern Germany, April to June 2020.

Meat processing plants have been prominent hotspots for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks around the world. We describe infection prevention measures and risk factors for infection spread at a meat processing plant in Germany with a COVID-19 outbreak from April to June 2020. We analysed a cohort of all employees and defined cases as employees with either a PCR or ELISA positive result. Of 1,270 employees, 453 (36%) had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The highest attack rates were observed in meat processing and slaughtering areas. Multivariable analysis revealed that being a subcontracted employee (adjusted risk ratio (aRR)): 1.43, 95% CI: 1.06-1.96), working in the meat cutting area (aRR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.45-4.48), working in the slaughtering area (aRR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.32-4.45) and being a veterinary inspector (aRR: 4.77, 95% CI: 1.16-23.68) increased infection risk. Sharing accommodation or transportation were not identified as risk factors for infection. Our results suggest that workplace was the main risk factor for infection spread. These results highlight the importance of implementing preventive measures targeting meat processing plants. Face masks, distancing, staggering breaks, increased hygiene and regular testing for SARS-CoV2 helped limit this outbreak, as the plant remained open throughout the outbreak.

Epidemiological analysis of 3,219 COVID-19 outbreaks in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented global crisis challenging health systems. This paper aims to assess and characterise SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg to identify groups at greatest risk, to establish early measures to curb transmission. We analysed all mandatory notified (i.e. laboratory-confirmed) coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks with more than two cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg from calendar weeks 18-49 (from 27 April to 6 December 2020). We used the following classification for settings: asylum and refugee accommodation, care homes, care facilities, day care child centres, hobby-related, hospitality, hospitals, households, other, residence halls, schools, supported housing, training schools, transportation, treatment facilities and workplace (occupational). We used R program version 3.6.3 for analysis. In our analysis, 3219 outbreaks with 22 238 individuals were included. About 48% were in household and hobby-related settings. Care homes accounted for 9.5% of outbreaks and 21.6% of cases. The median age across all settings was 43 (interquartile range (IQR) 24-63). The median age of cases in care homes was 81 (IQR 56-88). Of all reported cases in care homes, 72.1% were women. Over 30% (466/1511) of hospitalisations were among cases in care homes compared to 17.7% (268/1511) in households. Overall, 70% (500/715) of all deceased persons in outbreaks in the study period were in care homes compared to 4.2% in household settings (30/715). We observed an exponential increase in the number of notified outbreaks starting around the 41st week with N = 291 outbreaks reported in week 49. The median number of cases in outbreaks in care homes and care facilities after the 40th week was 14 (IQR 5-29) and 11 (IQR 5-20), respectively, compared to 3 (IQR 3-5) in households. We observed an increase in hospitalisations, and mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes after the 40th week. We found the care home demographic to be at greatest risk after the 40th week, based on the exponential increase in outbreaks, the number of cases, hospitalisations and mortality trends. Our analysis highlights the necessity of targeted, setting-specific approaches to control transmission in this vulnerable population. Regular screening of staff members and visitors' using rapid antigen point-of-care-tests could be a game-changer in curbing transmission in this setting.

Local measles vaccination gaps in Germany and the role of vaccination providers.

BACKGROUND: Measles elimination in Europe is an urgent public health goal, yet despite the efforts of its member states, vaccination gaps and outbreaks occur. This study explores local vaccination heterogeneity in kindergartens and municipalities of a German county. METHODS: Data on children from mandatory school enrolment examinations in 2014/15 in Reutlingen county were used. Children with unknown vaccination status were either removed from the analysis (best case) or assumed to be unvaccinated (worst case). Vaccination data were translated into expected outbreak probabilities. Physicians and kindergartens with statistically outstanding numbers of under-vaccinated children were identified. RESULTS: A total of 170 (7.1%) of 2388 children did not provide a vaccination certificate; 88.3% (worst case) or 95.1% (best case) were vaccinated at least once against measles. Based on the worst case vaccination coverage, <10% of municipalities and <20% of kindergartens were sufficiently vaccinated to be protected against outbreaks. Excluding children without a vaccination certificate (best case) leads to over-optimistic views: the overall outbreak probability in case of a measles introduction lies between 39.5% (best case) and 73.0% (worst case). Four paediatricians were identified who accounted for 41 of 109 unvaccinated children and for 47 of 138 incomplete vaccinations; GPs showed significantly higher rates of missing vaccination certificates and unvaccinated or under-vaccinated children than paediatricians. CONCLUSIONS: Missing vaccination certificates pose a severe problem regarding the interpretability of vaccination data. Although the coverage for at least one measles vaccination is higher in the studied county than in most South German counties and higher than the European average, many severe and potentially dangerous vaccination gaps occur locally. If other federal German states and EU countries show similar vaccination variability, measles elimination may not succeed in Europe.

[Public Health initiative for improved vaccination for asylum seekers]. / ÖGD-Initiative zur Verbesserung der Durchimpfung bei Asylsuchenden.

The number of asylum seekers in Germany has increased dramatically in 2015. Their medical care includes the officially recommended vaccinations; yet, no detailed information on this is yet available in Germany. In light of the rising number of asylum seekers, we have developed a concept to facilitate their vaccination. This concept includes the coordination of different partners, the supply of vaccines and other materials through the local health office, and the cooperation with the local physicians' association. To evaluate and accelerate progress, we compared the number of vaccinations conducted by physicians independently of the vaccination concept with those conducted within the new concept. For the period of investigation, 2,256 new asylum seekers were temporarily accommodated in the facilities. The vaccination concept was applied in only some of the facilities. Twenty-eight percent of all asylum seekers (642) were vaccinated at least once; 89 % of the vaccinees (571) were vaccinated within the newly developed concept. In the facilities that were not included in this concept, only 6 % of the refugees were vaccinated, whereas in the facilities that were included up to 58 % were vaccinated. Even though the new concept has started successfully, further innovations are required to reach sufficient vaccination coverage among asylum seekers. In view of the large number of new asylum seekers expected, the adjustment and expansion of the new concept requires professional planning and coordination. Furthermore, additional resources are required.

Post-COVID syndrome and work ability 9-12 months after a SARS-CoV-2 infection among over 9000 employees from the general population.

Objectives: Evidence on the work-related societal impact of long-term health-related consequences following SARS-CoV-2 is emerging. We characterize the modified work ability index (mWAI) of employees 6 to 12 months after an acute infection compared to pre-infection. Methods: Analyses were based on a population-based, multi-center cross-sectional study including employees aged 18-65 years with positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (tested between October 2020-April 2021 in defined geographic regions in Germany). Prevalences and results of adjusted logistic regression analyses were given. Results: In 9752 employees (mean age 45.6 years, 58% females, response 24%), n = 1217 (13.1%) participants were regarded as having low mWAI compared to pre-infection. Outpatient medical treatment, inpatient treatment, and admission to intensive care during infection were associated with mWAI <15th percentile (P15, each odds ratio [OR] >3.0). Post-COVID symptom clusters most strongly linked to mWAI

Association of BMI with general health, working capacity recovered, and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the risk of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 associated with the continuous spectrum of BMI. METHODS: Epidemiology of Long COVID (EPILOC) is a population-based study conducted in Baden-Württemberg (Germany), including subjects aged 18 to 65 years who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between October 2020 and April 2021. Eligible subjects answered a standardized questionnaire, including sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and the presence of specific symptoms. Participants assessed their current general health recovery and working capacity compared with the pre-infection situation and provided their body height and weight. Generalized additive models were used to assess the association of BMI with general health recovered, working capacity recovered, and prevalence of fatigue, cognitive impairment, and chest symptoms. RESULTS: The analyses included 11,296 individuals (41% male), with a mean age of 44.0 (SD 13.7) years. Best general health recovery was observed at BMI of 22.1 (95% CI: 21.0-27.0) kg/m2 in men and BMI of 21.6 (95% CI: 20.3-23.1) kg/m2 in women. In addition, we found that increasing BMI was consistently associated with post-COVID fatigue, neurocognitive impairment, and chest symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI contributes to impaired recovery after SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, a low BMI is associated with impaired recovery as well.

Post-acute sequelae of covid-19 six to 12 months after infection: population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe symptoms and symptom clusters of post-covid syndrome six to 12 months after acute infection, describe risk factors, and examine the association of symptom clusters with general health and working capacity. DESIGN: Population based, cross sectional study SETTING: Adults aged 18-65 years with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between October 2020 and March 2021 notified to health authorities in four geographically defined regions in southern Germany. PARTICIPANTS: 50 457 patients were invited to participate in the study, of whom 12 053 (24%) responded and 11 710 (58.8% (n=6881) female; mean age 44.1 years; 3.6% (412/11 602) previously admitted with covid-19; mean follow-up time 8.5 months) could be included in the analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Symptom frequencies (six to 12 months after versus before acute infection), symptom severity and clustering, risk factors, and associations with general health recovery and working capacity. RESULTS: The symptom clusters fatigue (37.2% (4213/11 312), 95% confidence interval 36.4% to 38.1%) and neurocognitive impairment (31.3% (3561/11 361), 30.5% to 32.2%) contributed most to reduced health recovery and working capacity, but chest symptoms, anxiety/depression, headache/dizziness, and pain syndromes were also prevalent and relevant for working capacity, with some differences according to sex and age. Considering new symptoms with at least moderate impairment of daily life and ≤80% recovered general health or working capacity, the overall estimate for post-covid syndrome was 28.5% (3289/11 536, 27.7% to 29.3%) among participants or at least 6.5% (3289/50 457) in the infected adult population (assuming that all non-responders had completely recovered). The true value is likely to be between these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitation of a low response rate and possible selection and recall biases, this study suggests a considerable burden of self-reported post-acute symptom clusters and possible sequelae, notably fatigue and neurocognitive impairment, six to 12 months after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, even among young and middle aged adults after mild infection, with a substantial impact on general health and working capacity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German registry of clinical studies DRKS 00027012.

Risk factors for human infection with Puumala virus, southwestern Germany.

Puumala virus, which causes nephropathia epidemica (NE), is the most prevalent hantavirus in Germany; bank voles serve as the main reservoir. During 2001-2007, most NE cases reported from Germany occurred in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg. We investigated the influence of bank vole habitats (beech forest, seed plants), vole food supply (beechnut mast), climate factors (winter and spring temperatures), and human population density on spatial and temporal occurrence of NE cases in Baden-Württemberg. Using Poisson-regression analyses, we found that all these factors influenced disease incidence. Furthermore, an independent trend of increasing incidence predicted that incidence will nearly double each year. The regression model explained 75% of the annual variation in NE incidence. The results suggest that environmental drivers lead to increasing incidence of NE infections in the southern part or even other parts of Germany.

Antiviral prophylaxis during pandemic influenza may increase drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) and social distancing play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. METHODS: Using the freely available program InfluSim, the authors examine to what extent NI-treatment and prophylaxis promote the occurrence and transmission of a NI resistant strain. RESULTS: Under a basic reproduction number of R0 = 2.5, a NI resistant strain can only spread if its transmissibility (fitness) is at least 40% of the fitness of the drug-sensitive strain. Although NI drug resistance may emerge in treated patients in such a late state of their disease that passing on the newly developed resistant viruses is unlikely, resistant strains quickly become highly prevalent in the population if their fitness is high. Antiviral prophylaxis further increases the pressure on the drug-sensitive strain and favors the spread of resistant infections. The authors show scenarios where pre-exposure antiviral prophylaxis even increases the number of influenza cases and deaths. CONCLUSION: If the fitness of a NI resistant pandemic strain is high, any use of prophylaxis may increase the number of hospitalizations and deaths in the population. The use of neuraminidase inhibitors should be restricted to the treatment of cases whereas prophylaxis should be reduced to an absolute minimum in that case.

Effects of interventions on the demand for hospital services in an influenza pandemic: a sensitivity analysis.

PRINCIPLES: The evaluation of the capacity of a country's public health system in case of an influenza pandemic is essential for preparedness planning. Only few studies compare existing medical resources with those required during a severe pandemic. METHODS: We perform a sensitivity analysis with the freely available simulation tool InfluSim to explore the expected number of outpatient visits and the hospital bed occupancy in an influenza pandemic in Switzerland. We define plausible ranges for unknown parameter values and take random samples from these ranges. A set of four simulations is run for each parameter constellation, considering no intervention, contact reduction, antiviral treatment or a combination of both interventions. RESULTS: We find that the peak number of outpatient visits of influenza patients would still be manageable by the current number of active physicians with praxis in Switzerland, and that the demand of hospital beds would be only sustainable in the case of a good compliance of the combined interventions. On the other hand, the demand on intensive care unit beds is unsustainably high. CONCLUSIONS: The range of outcomes, resulting from parameter uncertainty, reaches from outpatient and hospitalization values which are half as high as the median to values which double the median. A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can considerably mitigate a severe pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter constellation combining (mild outbreaks with a high compliance of interventions).

Detection and characterization of sapoviruses in outbreaks of gastroenteritis in southwest Germany.

BACKGROUND: Sapovirus (SV) has been reported from many countries as one of the major causes of gastroenteritis in infants, but its importance for a broader age range is not well appreciated. While previous studies in our regional laboratory and other parts of Germany have identified Norovirus (NV) as a major cause of gastroenteritis in Germany, the prevalence of SV has not been recorded. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence of SV in outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. STUDY DESIGN: Stool specimens from 34 outbreaks of gastroenteritis collected in Baden-Württemberg, Germany in 2002 and 2003, which tested negative for other enteric pathogens were tested for SV by RT-PCR. Positive samples were sequenced and typed using phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: SV was identified in two of 157 (1.3%) specimens. These two viruses belonged to different genotypes of SV and had a nucleotide similarity of only 57%. CONCLUSIONS: SV circulates within the study area, but is not an important cause of gastroenteritis in the area.

Modeling the effects of drug resistant influenza virus in a pandemic.

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Modeling studies suggested that a pandemic may be contained at the source by early treatment and prophylaxis with antiviral drugs. Here, we examine the influence of NI resistant influenza strains on an influenza pandemic. We extend the freely available deterministic simulation program InfluSim to incorporate importations of resistant infections and the emergence of de novo resistance. The epidemic with the fully drug sensitive strain leads to a cumulative number of 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations, respectively, per 100,000 inhabitants. Development of de novo resistance alone increases the total number of outpatients by about 6% and hospitalizations by about 21%. If a resistant infection is introduced into the population after three weeks, the outcome dramatically deteriorates. Wide-spread use of NI treatment makes it highly likely that the resistant strain will spread if its fitness is high. This situation is further aggravated if a resistant virus is imported into a country in the early phase of an outbreak. As NI-resistant influenza infections with high fitness and pathogenicity have just been observed, the emergence of drug resistance in treated populations and the transmission of drug resistant strains is an important public health concern for seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. MAIN FINDINGS: First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3-5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. CONCLUSION: Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.

Influenza pandemic intervention planning using InfluSim: pharmaceutical and non- pharmaceutical interventions.

BACKGROUND: Influenza pandemic preparedness plans are currently developed and refined on national and international levels. Much attention has been given to the administration of antiviral drugs, but contact reduction can also be an effective part of mitigation strategies and has the advantage to be not limited per se. The effectiveness of these interventions depends on various factors which must be explored by sensitivity analyses, based on mathematical models. METHODS: We use the freely available planning tool InfluSim to investigate how pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions can mitigate an influenza pandemic. In particular, we examine how intervention schedules, restricted stockpiles and contact reduction (social distancing measures and isolation of cases) determine the course of a pandemic wave and the success of interventions. RESULTS: A timely application of antiviral drugs combined with a quick implementation of contact reduction measures is required to substantially protract the peak of the epidemic and reduce its height. Delays in the initiation of antiviral treatment (e.g. because of parsimonious use of a limited stockpile) result in much more pessimistic outcomes and can even lead to the paradoxical effect that the stockpile is depleted earlier compared to early distribution of antiviral drugs. CONCLUSION: Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures should not be used exclusively. The protraction of the pandemic wave is essential to win time while waiting for vaccine development and production. However, it is the height of the peak of an epidemic which can easily overtax general practitioners, hospitals or even whole public health systems, causing bottlenecks in basic and emergency medical care.

The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim.

BACKGROUND: Planning public health responses against pandemic influenza relies on predictive models by which the impact of different intervention strategies can be evaluated. Research has to date rather focused on producing predictions for certain localities or under specific conditions, than on designing a publicly available planning tool which can be applied by public health administrations. Here, we provide such a tool which is reproducible by an explicitly formulated structure and designed to operate with an optimal combination of the competing requirements of precision, realism and generality. RESULTS: InfluSim is a deterministic compartment model based on a system of over 1,000 differential equations which extend the classic SEIR model by clinical and demographic parameters relevant for pandemic preparedness planning. It allows for producing time courses and cumulative numbers of influenza cases, outpatient visits, applied antiviral treatment doses, hospitalizations, deaths and work days lost due to sickness, all of which may be associated with economic aspects. The software is programmed in Java, operates platform independent and can be executed on regular desktop computers. CONCLUSION: InfluSim is an online available software http://www.influsim.info which efficiently assists public health planners in designing optimal interventions against pandemic influenza. It can reproduce the infection dynamics of pandemic influenza like complex computer simulations while offering at the same time reproducibility, higher computational performance and better operability.

A super-spreading ewe infects hundreds with Q fever at a farmers' market in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In May 2003 the Soest County Health Department was informed of an unusually large number of patients hospitalized with atypical pneumonia. METHODS: In exploratory interviews patients mentioned having visited a farmers' market where a sheep had lambed. Serologic testing confirmed the diagnosis of Q fever. We asked local health departments in Germany to identify notified Q fever patients who had visited the farmers market. To investigate risk factors for infection we conducted a case control study (cases were Q fever patients, controls were randomly selected Soest citizens) and a cohort study among vendors at the market. The sheep exhibited at the market, the herd from which it originated as well as sheep from herds held in the vicinity of Soest were tested for Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii). RESULTS: A total of 299 reported Q fever cases was linked to this outbreak. The mean incubation period was 21 days, with an interquartile range of 16-24 days. The case control study identified close proximity to and stopping for at least a few seconds at the sheep's pen as significant risk factors. Vendors within approximately 6 meters of the sheep's pen were at increased risk for disease compared to those located farther away. Wind played no significant role. The clinical attack rate of adults and children was estimated as 20% and 3%, respectively, 25% of cases were hospitalized. The ewe that had lambed as well as 25% of its herd tested positive for C. burnetii antibodies. CONCLUSION: Due to its size and point source nature this outbreak permitted assessment of fundamental, but seldom studied epidemiological parameters. As a consequence of this outbreak, it was recommended that pregnant sheep not be displayed in public during the 3rd trimester and to test animals in petting zoos regularly for C. burnetii.

Overweight, physical activity, tobacco and alcohol consumption in a cross-sectional random sample of German adults.

BACKGROUND: There is a current paucity of data on the health behaviour of non-selected populations in Central Europe. Data on health behaviour were collected as part of the EMIL study which investigated the prevalence of infection with Echinococcus multilocularis and other medical conditions in an urban German population. METHODS: Participating in the present study were 2,187 adults (1,138 females [52.0%]; 1,049 males [48.0%], age: 18-65 years) taken from a sample of 4,000 persons randomly chosen from an urban population. Data on health behaviour like physical activity, tobacco and alcohol consumption were obtained by means of a questionnaire, documentation of anthropometric data, abdominal ultrasound and blood specimens for assessment of chemical parameters. RESULTS: The overall rate of participation was 62.8%. Of these, 50.3% of the adults were overweight or obese. The proportion of active tobacco smokers stood at 30.1%. Of those surveyed 38.9% did not participate in any physical activity. Less than 2 hours of leisure time physical activity per week was associated with female sex, higher BMI (Body Mass Index), smoking and no alcohol consumption. Participants consumed on average 12 grams of alcohol per day. Total cholesterol was in 62.0% (>5.2 mmol/l) and triglycerides were elevated in 20.5% (> or = 2.3 mmol/l) of subjects studied. Hepatic steatosis was identified in 27.4% of subjects and showed an association with male sex, higher BMI, higher age, higher total blood cholesterol, lower HDL, higher triglycerides and higher ALT. CONCLUSION: This random sample of German urban adults was characterised by a high prevalence of overweight and obesity. This and the pattern of alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity can be considered to put this group at high risk for associated morbidity and underscore the urgent need for preventive measures aimed at reducing the significantly increased health risk.

Risk factors for human Leptospira seropositivity in South Germany.

We analyzed risk factors for Leptospira seropositivity in humans, using data from a population-based cross-sectional zoonosis survey in South Germany (2008/9). Out of 1007 participants 42 (4.2 %) were sero-positive (19/446 men; 23/561 women), indicating that Leptospira exposure and sero-conversion is much more frequent than commonly assumed. Relative risks (RR) for seropositivity with exact 95 % confidence intervals (CI; adjusted for specificity and sensitivity of the ELISA test) were calculated for various exposure factors. Contact with pet rats (RR = 13.9 CI [4.8; 25.3]), guinea pigs (3.0[1.1; 7.4]), cattle (3.7[1.3; 9.6]), poultry (3.6[1.3; 8.6]) or livestock (2.3[1.1; 4.9]) as well as occupation as forestry worker (9.2[2.6; 21.4]) were identified as important exposure factors. None of the participants has ever been diagnosed with leptospirosis, yet 45 had experienced symptoms which may have been caused by Leptospira infection (12 with scleral icterus, 25 dark urine, 8 liver inflammation, 7 kidney failure). Three times as many participants with prior symptoms were seropositive as participants without symptoms (RR = 3.4[1.3; 8.3]), suggesting that sero-positive patients with severe symptoms may frequently not be diagnosed as leptospirosis cases. Physicians should consider leptospirosis as a differential diagnosis. Currently, the vast majority of symptomatic leptospirosis patients may neither be diagnosed nor reported.