Climatic change: are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?

If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.

Floating glacial ice caps in the arctic ocean.

Two arguments are presented, one in favor of the existence of thicker ice in the Arctic Ocean during glacial time, and the other in favor of a full-fledged Arctic ice cap. The first is based on the Greenland air temperature record obtained from isotopic studies of the Camp Century ice core. The second is based on the oxygen isotope record of benthic foraminifera from a deep Pacific Ocean core.

Glacial-to-Holocene redistribution of carbonate ion in the deep sea.

We have reconstructed the glacial-age distribution of carbonate ion concentration in the deep waters of the equatorial ocean on the basis of differences in weight between glacial and Holocene foraminifera shells picked from a series of cores spanning a range of water depth on the western Atlantic's Ceara Rise and the western Pacific's Ontong Java Plateau. The results suggest that unlike today's ocean, sizable vertical gradients in the carbonate ion concentration existed in the glacial-age deep ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the concentration increased with depth, and in the Atlantic, it decreased with depth. In addition, the contrast between the carbonate ion concentration in deep waters produced in the northern Atlantic and deep water in the Pacific appears to have been larger than in today's ocean.

Gas exchange-wind speed relation measured with sulfur hexafluoride on a lake.

Gas-exchange processes control the uptake and release of various gases in natural systems such as oceans, rivers, and lakes. Not much is known about the effect of wind speed on gas exchange in such systems. In the experiment described here, sulfur hexafluoride was dissolved in lake water, and the rate of escape of the gas with wind speed (at wind speeds up to 6 meters per second) was determined over a 1-month period. A sharp change in the wind speed dependence of the gas-exchange coefficient was found at wind speeds of about 2.4 meters per second, in agreement with the results of wind-tunnel studies. However, the gas-exchange coefficients at wind speeds above 3 meters per second were smaller than those observed in wind tunnels and are in agreement with earlier lake and ocean results.

The effect of changing land use on soil radiocarbon.

Most carbon budgets require greening of the terrestrial biosphere as a sink for some of the excess carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Much of this storage is thought to occur in soils, but running counter to this conclusion is the observation that cultivation has reduced the agricultural reservoir of soil humus. Radiocarbon measurements in agricultural soils lend support to this browning of agricultural lands. Moreover, the loss is from the fast cycling portion of the humus.

Radium-226 and radon-222: concentration in atlantic and pacific oceans.

Measurements of radon-222 in seawater suggest the following. The radium-226 content of surface water in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans is uniformly close to about 4 x 10(-14) gram per liter. The deep Pacific has a concentration of radium-226 that is four times higher and the deep Atlantic a concentration twice as high as that of the surface. These distribution profiles can be explained by the same particle-settling rate for radium-226 from surface to depth for the two oceans and by a threefold longer residence time of water in the deep Pacific than in the deep Atlantic. The vertical distribution of the deficiency of radon-222 in the surface water of the northwest Pacific Ocean suggests a coefficient of vertical eddy diffusion as high as 120 square centimeters per second and a gas-exchange rate for carbon dioxide in surface water between 14 and 60 moles per square meter per year. Vertical profiles of the excess of radon-222 in near-bottom water of the South Atlantic give coefficients of vertical eddy diffusion ranging from 1.5 to more than 50 square centimeters per second.

Atlantic deep-sea stratigraphy: extension of absolute chronology to 320,000 years.

Thorium-230 measurements on a core of globigerina ooze from the Caribbean Sea substantiate the prediction of Ericson et al. that the paleontological boundary U-V (Sangamon-Illinoian boundary in their scheme) in the Atlantic sediments has an age of close to 320,000 years. As the ages derived by Ericson et al. were based on extrapolations of mean sedimentation rates established by carbon-14 and protactinium-231 dating of the upper sections of this and other cores, this result confirms the assumption that sedimentation rates in the Caribbean Sea have not changed significantly during the past several hundred thousand years. The uranium content of the ocean as indicated by the deposition rate of thorium-230 was no more than 30 percent higher during glacial than during interglacial periods.

Paleotemperatures in the southwestern United States derived from noble gases in ground water.

A paleotemperature record based on measurements of atmospheric noble gases dissolved in ground water of the Carrizo aquifer (Texas) shows that the annual mean temperature in the southwestern United States during the last glacial maximum was about 5 degrees C lower than the present-day value. In combination with evidence for fluctuations in mountain snow lines, this cooling indicates that the glacial lapse rate was approximately the same as it is today. In contrast, measurements on deep-sea sediments indicate that surface temperatures in the ocean basins adjacent to our study area decreased by only about 2 degrees C. This difference between continental and oceanic records poses questions concerning our current understanding of paleoclimate and climate-controlling processes.

Strontium-90 Fallout: Comparison of Rates over Ocean and Land.

Measurements of strontium-90 in waters residing on the Bahama Banks for periods between 12 and 180 days suggest that fallout rates onto these waters are substantially the same as the average rates at all fallout collection stations between 20 degrees and 30 degrees north latitude. If the amount of preciptation on the Bahama Banks is reasonably representative of the oceanic areas in this latitude band, our results support the conclusion that the amount of strontium-90 deposited per unit area of ocean surface is within a factor of 2 of that on land.

Manganese nodules: their evolution.

That manganese nodules and adjacent deep-sea sediments are accumulating manganese at almost the same rate has been established by thorium-230 dating of both sediments and nodules of known manganese content. The rate of manganese deposition is nearly constant over the world oceans. A relatively simple model of nodule evolution explains the distribution of manganese nodules between sediment column and sediment-water interface; the model appears to apply to other trace elements such as copper, nickel, and cobalt.

Fate of fossil fuel carbon dioxide and the global carbon budget.

The fate of fossil fuel carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere depends on the exchange rates of carbon between the atmosphere and three major carbon reservoirs, namely, the oceans, shallow-water sediments, and the terrestrial biosphere. Various assumptions and models used to estimate the global carbon budget for the last 20 years are reviewed and evaluated. Several versions of recent atmosphere-ocean models appear to give reliable and mutually consistent estimates for carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans. On the other hand, there is no compelling evidence which establishes that the terrestrial biomass has decreased at a rate comparable to that of fossil fuel combustion over the last two decades, as has been recently claimed.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide: its role in maintaining phytoplankton standing crops.

The rate of invasion of carbon dioxide into an artificially eutrophic Canadian Shield lake with insufficient internal sources of carbon was determined by two methods: measuring the carbon : nitrogen : phosphorus ratios of seston after weekly additions of nitrogen and phosphorus, and measuring the loss of radon-222 tracer from the epilimnion. Both methods gave an invasion rate of about 0.2 gram of carbon per square meter per day. The results demonstrate that invasion of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be sufficient to permit eutrophication of any body of water receiving an adequate supply of phosphorus and nitrogen.

Cooling of Tropical Brazil (5{degrees}C) During the Last Glacial Maximum.

A 30,000-year paleotemperature record derived from noble gases dissolved in carbon-14-dated ground water indicates that the climate in lowland Brazil (Piaui Province, 7 degrees S, 41.5 degrees W; altitude, 400 meters) was 5.4 degrees +/- 0.6 degrees C cooler during the last glacial maximum than today. This result suggests a rather uniform cooling of the Americas between 40 degrees S and 40 degrees N. A 5.4 degrees C cooling of tropical South America is consistent with pollen records, snow line reconstructions, and strontium/calcium ratios and delta(18)O coral records but is inconsistent with the sea-surface temperature reconstruction of CLIMAP (Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction). On the basis of these results, it appears that the tropical Americas are characterized by a temperature sensitivity comparable to that found in higher latitudes.

Milankovitch hypothesis supported by precise dating of coral reefs and deep-sea sediments.

Barbados provides a possibly unique opportunity for reconstruction of the times and elevations of late-Pleistocene high stands of the sea. The island appears to be rising from the sea at a uniform rate that is fast enough to separate in elevation coral-reef tracts formed at successive high stands of the sea. Unaltered coral found in the lower terraces enables high-precision Th(230): U(234) and Pa(231): U(235) dating. Three distinct high stands of the sea are found about 122,000, 103,000, and 82,000 years ago. New Pa(231) and Th(230) dates from a deep-sea core also indicate that Ericson's W-X cold-to-warm climatic change occurred close to 126,000 years ago. These data show a parallelism over the last 150,000 years between changes in Earth's climate and changes in the summer insolation predicted from cycles in the tilt and precession of Earth's axis.

Carbon-14 in methane sources and in atmospheric methane: the contribution from fossil carbon.

Measurements of carbon-14 in small samples of methane from major biogenic sources, from biomass burning, and in "clean air" samples from both the Northern and Southern hemispheres reveal that methane from ruminants contains contemporary carbon, whereas that from wetlands, pat bogs, rice fields, and tundra is somewhat, depleted in carbon-14. Atmospheric (14)GH(4) seems to have increased from 1986 to 1987, and levels at the end of 1987 were 123.3 +/- 0.8 percent modern carbon (pMC) in the Northern Hemisphere and 120.0 +/- 0.7 pMC in the Southern Hemisphere. Model calculations of source partitioning based on the carbon-14 data, CH(4) concentrations, and delta(13)C in CH(4) indicate that 21 +/- 3% of atmospheric CH(4) was derived from fossil carbon at the end of 1987. The data also indicate that pressurized water reactors are an increasingly important source of (14)CH(4).

A Climatic Freshening of the Deep Atlantic North of 50{degrees}N over the Past 20 Years.

Observations made in summer 1981 show a significant and widespread decrease in salinity, averaging 0.02 per mil, in deep waters of the subpolar North Atlantic over the past two decades. This implies a relatively rapid response of deep water formation to climatic perturbation.