Time dependence of biomarkers: non-proportional effects of immunohistochemical panels predicting relapse risk in early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the impact of follow-up duration to determine whether two immunohistochemical prognostic panels, IHC4 and Mammostrat, provide information on the risk of early or late distant recurrence using the Edinburgh Breast Conservation Series and the Tamoxifen vs Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial. METHODS: The multivariable fractional polynomial time (MFPT) algorithm was used to determine which variables had possible non-proportional effects. The performance of the scores was assessed at various lengths of follow-up and Cox regression modelling was performed over the intervals of 0-5 years and >5 years. RESULTS: We observed a strong time dependence of both the IHC4 and Mammostrat scores, with their effects decreasing over time. In the first 5 years of follow-up only, the addition of both scores to clinical factors provided statistically significant information (P<0.05), with increases in R(2) between 5 and 6% and increases in D-statistic between 0.16 and 0.21. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses confirm that the IHC4 and Mammostrat scores are strong prognostic factors for time to distant recurrence but this is restricted to the first 5 years after diagnosis. This provides evidence for their combined use to predict early recurrence events in order to select those patients who may/will benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Do type 1 receptor tyrosine kinases inform treatment choice? A prospectively planned analysis of the TEAM trial.

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptors contribute to breast cancer relapse during endocrine therapy. Substitution of aromatase inhibitors (AIs) may improve outcomes in HER-positive cancers. METHODS: Tissue microarrays were constructed. Quantitative analysis of HER1, HER2, and HER3 was performed. Data were analysed relative to disease-free survival and treatment using outcomes at 2.75 and 6.5 years. RESULTS: Among 4541 eligible samples, 4225 (93%) had complete HER1-3 data. Overall, 5% were HER1-positive, 13% HER2-positive, and 21% HER3-positive; 32% (n=1351) overexpressed at least one HER receptor. In the HER1-3-negative subgroup, the hazard ratio (HR) for upfront exemestane vs tamoxifen at 2.75 years was 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.52-0.87), in the HER1-3-positive subgroup, the HR was 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85-1.56). A prospectively planned treatment-by-marker analysis demonstrated a significant interaction between HER1-3 and treatment at 2.75 years (HR=0.58; 95% CI, 0.39-0.87; P=0.008), as confirmed by multivariate regression analysis adjusting for prognostic factors (HR=0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.85; P=0.005). This effect was time dependent. CONCLUSION: In the 2.75 years prior to switching patients initially treated with tamoxifen to exemestane, a significant treatment-by-marker effect exists between AI/tamoxifen treatment and HER1-3 expression, suggesting HER expression could be used to select appropriate endocrine treatment at diagnosis to prevent or delay early relapses.