Institutional complexity emerges from socioecological complexity in small-scale human societies.

Human lifestyles vary enormously over time and space and so understanding the origins of this diversity has always been a central focus of anthropology. A major source of this cultural variation is the variation in institutional complexity: the cultural packages of rules, norms, ontologies and expectations passed down through societies across generations. In this article, we study the emergence of institutions in small-scale societies. There are two primary schools of thought. The first is that institutions emerge top-down as rules are imposed by elites on their societies in order to gain asymmetrical access to power, resources and influence over others through coercion. The second is that institutions emerge bottom-up to facilitate interactions within populations as they seek collective solutions to adaptive problems. Here, we use Bayesian networks to infer the causal structure of institutional complexity in 172 small-scale societies across ethnohistoric western North America reflecting the wide diversity of indigenous lifestyles across this vast region immediately prior to European colonization. Our results suggest that institutional complexity emerges from underlying socioecological complexity because institutions are solutions to coordination problems in more complex environments where human-environment interactions require increased management.

Cultural learning and the Clovis colonization of North America.

The timing of the earliest colonization of North America is debatable, but what is not at issue is the point of origin of the early colonists: Humans entered the continent from Beringia and then made their way south along or near the Pacific Coast and/or through a corridor that ran between the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets in western North America. At some point, they abandoned their Arctic-based tool complex for one more adapted to an entirely different environment. That new techno-complex is termed "Clovis"; its dispersal allows us to examine, at a fine scale, how colonization processes played out across a vast continent that at the time had, at best, a very small resident population. Clovis has figured prominently in American archeology since the first Clovis points were identified in eastern New Mexico in the 1930s. However, the successful marriage of learning models grounded in evolutionary theory and modern analytical methods that began roughly a decade ago has begun to pay significant dividends in terms of what we know about the rapid spread of human groups across the last sizable landmass to witness human occupation.

Social learning and technological evolution during the Clovis colonization of the New World.

A long-standing debate in Pleistocene archaeology concerns the sources of variation in the technology of colonizing hunter-gatherers. One prominent example of this debate is Clovis technology (13,350-12,500 calendar years before present), which represents the earliest widespread and currently recognizable remains of hunter-gatherers in North America. Clovis projectile points appear to have been made the same way regardless of region, but several studies have documented differences in shape that appear to be regional. Two processes have been proposed for shape variation: (1) stochastic mechanisms such as copy error (drift) and (2) Clovis groups adapting their hunting equipment to the characteristics of prey and local habitat. We used statistical analysis of Clovis-point flake-scar pattern and geometric morphometrics to examine whether drift alone could cause significant differences in the technology of Stone Age colonizing hunter-gatherers. Importantly, our analysis was intraregional to rule out a priori environmental adaptation. Our analysis confirmed that the production technique was the same across the sample, but we found significant shape differences in Clovis point populations made from distinct stone outcrops. Given that current archaeological evidence suggests stone outcrops were "hubs" of regional Clovis activity, our dichotomous, intraregional results quantitatively confirm that Clovis foragers engaged in two tiers of social learning. The lower, ancestral tier relates to point production and can be tied to conformist transmission of tool-making processes across the Clovis population. The upper, derived tier relates to point shape, which can be tied to drift that resulted from increased forager interaction at different stone-outcrop hubs and decreased forager interaction among groups using different outcrops. Given that Clovis artifacts represent the earliest widespread and currently recognizable remains of hunter-gatherers in North America, our results suggest that we need to alter our theoretical understanding of how quickly drift can occur within a colonizing population and create differences among socially learned technological characters.

Bullet ricochet mark plan-view morphology in concrete: an experimental assessment of five bullet types and two distances using machine learning.

Bullet ricochets are common occurrences during shooting incidents and can provide a wealth of information useful for shooting incident reconstruction. However, there have only been a small number of studies that have systematically investigated bullet ricochet impact site morphology. Here, this study reports on an experiment that examined the plan-view morphology of 297 ricochet impact sites in concrete that were produced by five different bullet types shot from two distances. This study used a random forest machine learning algorithm to classify bullet types with morphological dimensions of the ricochet mark (impact) with length and perimeter-to-area ratio emerging as the top predictor variables. The 0.22 LR leaves the most distinctive impact mark on the concrete, and overall, the classification accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation is 62%, considerably higher than a random classification accuracy of 20%. Adding in distance to the model as a predictor increases the classification accuracy to 66%. These initial results are promising, in that they suggest that an unknown bullet type can potentially be determined, or at least probabilistically assessed, from the morphology of the ricochet impact site alone. However, the substantial amount of overlap this study documented among distinct bullet types' ricochet mark morphologies under highly controlled conditions and with machine learning suggests that the human identification of ricochet marks in real-world shooting incident reconstructions may be on occasion, or perhaps regularly, in error. Key points: Bullet ricochet impact sites can help with shooting incident reconstruction.A random forest machine learning algorithm classified bullet type from ricochet morphology.Results suggest that unknown bullets can potentially be determined from ricochet impact site morphology.Human identification of bullet types from ricochet sites may be erroneous.

Atlatl use equalizes female and male projectile weapon velocity.

The atlatl is a handheld, rod-shaped device that employs leverage to launch a dart, and represents a major human technological innovation. One hypothesis for forager atlatl adoption over its presumed predecessor, the thrown javelin, is that a diverse array of people could achieve equal performance results, thereby facilitating inclusive participation of more people in hunting activities. We tested this hypothesis via a systematic assessment of 2160 weapon launch events by 108 people who used both technologies. Our results show that, unlike the javelin, the atlatl equalizes the velocity of female- and male-launched projectiles. This result indicates that a javelin to atlatl transition would have promoted a unification, rather than division, of labor. Moreover, our results suggest that female and male interments with atlatl weaponry should be interpreted similarly.

Predicting the geographic distribution of ancient Amazonian archaeological sites with machine learning.

Amazonia has as least two major centers of ancient human social complexity, but the full geographic extents of these centers remain uncertain. Across the southern rim of Amazonia, over 1,000 earthwork sites comprised of fortified settlements, mound villages, and ditched enclosures with geometric designs known as geoglyphs have been discovered. Qualitatively distinct and densely located along the lower stretches of major river systems and the Atlantic coast are Amazonian Dark Earth sites (ADEs) with deep anthropogenic soils enriched by long-term human habitation. Models predicting the geographic extents of earthworks and ADEs can assist in their discovery and preservation and help answer questions about the full degree of indigenous landscape modifications across Amazonia. We classify earthworks versus ADEs versus other non-earthwork/non-ADE archaeological sites with multi-class machine learning algorithms using soils, climate, and distances to rivers of different types and sizes as geospatial predictors. Model testing is done with spatial cross-validation, and the best model at the optimal spatial scale of 1 km has an Area Under the Curve of 0.91. Our predictive model has led to the discovery of 13 new geoglyphs, and it pinpoints specific areas with high probabilities of undiscovered archaeological sites that are currently hidden by rainforests. The limited, albeit impressive, predicted extents of earthworks and ADEs means that other non-ADE/non-earthwork sites are expected to predominate most of Western and Northern Amazonia.

Hafted technologies likely reduced stone tool-related selective pressures acting on the hominin hand.

The evolution of the hominin hand has been widely linked to the use and production of flaked stone tool technologies. After the earliest handheld flake tools emerged, shifts in hominin hand anatomy allowing for greater force during precision gripping and ease when manipulating objects in-hand are observed in the fossil record. Previous research has demonstrated how biometric traits, such as hand and digit lengths and precision grip strength, impact functional performance and ergonomic relationships when using flake and core technologies. These studies are consistent with the idea that evolutionary selective pressures would have favoured individuals better able to efficiently and effectively produce and use flaked stone tools. After the advent of composite technologies during the Middle Stone Age and Middle Palaeolithic, fossil evidence reveals differences in hand anatomy between populations, but there is minimal evidence for an increase in precision gripping capabilities. Furthermore, there is little research investigating the selective pressures, if any, impacting manual anatomy after the introduction of hafted composite stone technologies ('handles'). Here we investigated the possible influence of tool-user biometric variation on the functional performance of 420 hafted Clovis knife replicas. Our results suggest there to be no statistical relationships between biometric variables and cutting performance. Therefore, we argue that the advent of hafted stone technologies may have acted as a 'performance equaliser' within populations and removed (or reduced) selective pressures favouring forceful precision gripping capabilities, which in turn could have increased the relative importance of cultural evolutionary selective pressures in the determination of a stone tool's performance.

Refining the chronology of North America's copper using traditions: A macroscalar approach via Bayesian modeling.

North America's ancient copper use, predicted to originate as early as 9000 cal BP, represents the earliest use of native copper for utilitarian tool production in the world. Although recent work has focused on establishing the first use of copper in the western Great Lakes region, little attention has been paid to determining the age ranges of subsequent copper using groups or to the identification of broader trends in copper use during the Archaic Period (10,000-3000 RCYBP). Here we address this issue by applying Bayesian modeling to a comprehensive suite of 76 radiocarbon dates directly associated with copper use. Our results identified two distinct peaks in copper usage, ca. 5500 cal BP and ca. 3300 cal BP. Age ranges for the three Archaic Period traditions and practices associated with copper use of the western Great Lakes are revised using modern calibration curves. Bayesian revisions of age ranges from sites where copper tools and/or production debris have been found provide insight into the historical relationships between, and cultural interactions among, these early copper using groups. This study provides an updated, refined chronology based on the most recent calibration curve (IntCal20) for the varied cultural contexts of copper use across the western Great Lakes.

Paleoindian demography and the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis.

Recently it has been suggested that one or more large extraterrestrial (ET) objects struck northern North America 12,900 +/- 100 calendar years before present (calBP) [Firestone RB, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 16016-16021]. This impact is claimed to have triggered the Younger Dryas major cooling event and resulted in the extinction of the North American megafauna. The impact is also claimed to have caused major cultural changes and population decline among the Paleoindians. Here, we report a study in which approximately 1,500 radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites in Canada and the United States were used to test the hypothesis that the ET resulted in population decline among the Paleoindians. Following recent studies [e.g., Gamble C, Davies W, Pettitt P, Hazelwood L, Richards M (2005) Camb Archaeol J 15:193-223), the summed probability distribution of the calibrated dates was used to identify probable changes in human population size between 15,000 and 9,000 calBP. Subsequently, potential biases were evaluated by modeling and spatial analysis of the dated occupations. The results of the analyses were not consistent with the predictions of extraterrestrial impact hypothesis. No evidence of a population decline among the Paleoindians at 12,900 +/- 100 calBP was found. Thus, minimally, the study suggests the extraterrestrial impact hypothesis should be amended.

Tip cross-sectional geometry predicts the penetration depth of stone-tipped projectiles.

Understanding prehistoric projectile weaponry performance is fundamental to unraveling past humans' survival and the evolution of technology. One important debate involves how deeply stone-tipped projectiles penetrate a target. Theoretically, all things being equal, projectiles with smaller tip cross-sectional geometries should penetrate deeper into a target than projectiles with larger tip cross-sectional geometries. Yet, previous experiments have both supported and questioned this theoretical premise. Here, under controlled conditions, we experimentally examine fourteen types of stone-tipped projectile each possessing a different cross-sectional geometry. Our results show that both tip cross-sectional area (TCSA) and tip cross-sectional perimeter (TCSP) exhibit a strong, significant inverse relationship with target penetration depth, although TCSP's relationship is stronger. We discuss why our experimental results support what is mathematically predicted while previous experiments have not. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that when stone tip cross-sectional geometries become smaller over time in particular contexts, this evolution may be due to the selection of these attributes for increased penetration.

Scaling human sociopolitical complexity.

Human societies exhibit a diversity of social organizations that vary widely in size, structure, and complexity. Today, human sociopolitical complexity ranges from stateless small-scale societies of a few hundred individuals to complex states of millions, most of this diversity evolving only over the last few hundred years. Understanding how sociopolitical complexity evolved over time and space has always been a central focus of the social sciences. Yet despite this long-term interest, a quantitative understanding of how sociopolitical complexity varies across cultures is not well developed. Here we use scaling analysis to examine the statistical structure of a global sample of over a thousand human societies across multiple levels of sociopolitical complexity. First, we show that levels of sociopolitical complexity are self-similar as adjacent levels of jurisdictional hierarchy see a four-fold increase in population size, a two-fold increase in geographic range, and therefore a doubling of population density. Second, we show how this self-similarity leads to the scaling of population size and geographic range. As societies increase in complexity population density is reconfigured in space and quantified by scaling parameters. However, there is considerable overlap in population metrics across all scales suggesting that while more complex societies tend to have larger and denser populations, larger and denser populations are not necessarily more complex.

Miniaturization optimized weapon killing power during the social stress of late pre-contact North America (AD 600-1600).

Before Europeans arrived to Eastern North America, prehistoric, indigenous peoples experienced a number of changes that culminated in the development of sedentary, maize agricultural lifeways of varying complexity. Inherent to these lifeways were several triggers of social stress including population nucleation and increase, intergroup conflict (warfare), and increased territoriality. Here, we examine whether this period of social stress co-varied with deadlier weaponry, specifically, the design of the most commonly found prehistoric archery component in late pre-contact North America: triangular stone arrow tips (TSAT). The examination of modern metal or carbon projectiles, arrows, and arrowheads has demonstrated that smaller arrow tips penetrate deeper into a target than do larger ones. We first experimentally confirm that this relationship applies to arrow tips made from stone hafted onto shafts made from wood. We then statistically assess a large sample (n = 742) of late pre-contact TSAT and show that these specimens are extraordinarily small. Thus, by miniaturizing their arrow tips, prehistoric people in Eastern North America optimized their projectile weaponry for maximum penetration and killing power in warfare and hunting. Finally, we verify that these functional advantages were selected across environmental and cultural boundaries. Thus, while we cannot and should not rule out stochastic, production economizing, or non-adaptive cultural processes as an explanation for TSAT, overall our results are consistent with the hypothesis that broad, socially stressful demographic changes in late pre-contact Eastern North America resulted in the miniaturization-and augmented lethality-of stone tools across the region.

Thermal engineering of stone increased prehistoric toolmaking skill.

Intentional heat treating of toolstone has been documented to have begun at least by 70 K BP; however, the advantages of such treatment have been debated for decades. There are two schools of thought with regard to its purpose. One, is that it merely reduces the force required for flake propagation. A second is that it also alters flake morphological properties. We systematically tested these hypotheses by generating flakes from cores exposed to three different temperatures (ambient, 300 °C, and 350 °C) using automated propagation procedures that bypassed any human agency. While the force propagation magnitude is altered by heat treatment, the flakes were not. We examined these flakes according to nine measures of morphology. None differed significantly or systematically within the three categories. While our results confirm that heat treatment does reduce the force needed for flake propagation, they also demonstrate that such treatment has no significant effect on major morphological aspects of flake form.

Environment-induced changes in selective constraints on social learning during the peopling of the Americas.

The weaponry technology associated with Clovis and related Early Paleoindians represents the earliest well-defined evidence of humans in Pleistocene North America. We assess the technological diversity of these fluted stone points found at archaeological sites in the western and eastern halves of North America by employing statistical tools used in the quantification of ecological biodiversity. Our results demonstrate that the earliest hunters in the environmentally heterogeneous East used a more diverse set of points than those in the environmentally homogenous West. This and other evidence shows that environmental heterogeneity in the East promoted the relaxation of selective constraints on social learning and increased experimentation with point designs.

Risk, mobility or population size? Drivers of technological richness among contact-period western North American hunter-gatherers.

Identifying factors that influence technological evolution in small-scale societies is important for understanding human evolution. There have been a number of attempts to identify factors that influence the evolution of food-getting technology, but little work has examined the factors that affect the evolution of other technologies. Here, we focus on variation in technological richness (total number of material items and techniques) among recent hunter-gatherers from western North America and test three hypotheses: (i) technological richness is affected by environmental risk, (ii) population size is the primary determinant of technological richness, and (iii) technological richness is constrained by residential mobility. We found technological richness to be correlated with a proxy for environmental risk-mean rainfall for the driest month-in the manner predicted by the risk hypothesis. Support for the hypothesis persisted when we controlled for shared history and intergroup contact. We found no evidence that technological richness is affected by population size or residential mobility. These results have important implications for unravelling the complexities of technological evolution.

Population size and cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing societies.

Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations.

Risk of resource failure and toolkit variation in small-scale farmers and herders.

Recent work suggests that global variation in toolkit structure among hunter-gatherers is driven by risk of resource failure such that as risk of resource failure increases, toolkits become more diverse and complex. Here we report a study in which we investigated whether the toolkits of small-scale farmers and herders are influenced by risk of resource failure in the same way. In the study, we applied simple linear and multiple regression analysis to data from 45 small-scale food-producing groups to test the risk hypothesis. Our results were not consistent with the hypothesis; none of the risk variables we examined had a significant impact on toolkit diversity or on toolkit complexity. It appears, therefore, that the drivers of toolkit structure differ between hunter-gatherers and small-scale food-producers.

An assessment of the impact of hafting on Paleoindian point variability.

It has long been argued that the form of North American Paleoindian points was affected by hafting. According to this hypothesis, hafting constrained point bases such that they are less variable than point blades. The results of several studies have been claimed to be consistent with this hypothesis. However, there are reasons to be skeptical of these results. None of the studies employed statistical tests, and all of them focused on points recovered from kill and camp sites, which makes it difficult to be certain that the differences in variability are the result of hafting rather than a consequence of resharpening. Here, we report a study in which we tested the predictions of the hafting hypothesis by statistically comparing the variability of different parts of Clovis points. We controlled for the potentially confounding effects of resharpening by analyzing largely unused points from caches as well as points from kill and camp sites. The results of our analyses were not consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis. We found that several blade characters and point thickness were no more variable than the base characters. Our results indicate that the hafting hypothesis does not hold for Clovis points and indicate that there is a need to test its applicability in relation to post-Clovis Paleoindian points.

A morphometric assessment of the intended function of cached Clovis points.

A number of functions have been proposed for cached Clovis points. The least complicated hypothesis is that they were intended to arm hunting weapons. It has also been argued that they were produced for use in rituals or in connection with costly signaling displays. Lastly, it has been suggested that some cached Clovis points may have been used as saws. Here we report a study in which we morphometrically compared Clovis points from caches with Clovis points recovered from kill and camp sites to test two predictions of the hypothesis that cached Clovis points were intended to arm hunting weapons: 1) cached points should be the same shape as, but generally larger than, points from kill/camp sites, and 2) cached points and points from kill/camp sites should follow the same allometric trajectory. The results of the analyses are consistent with both predictions and therefore support the hypothesis. A follow-up review of the fit between the results of the analyses and the predictions of the other hypotheses indicates that the analyses support only the hunting equipment hypothesis. We conclude from this that cached Clovis points were likely produced with the intention of using them to arm hunting weapons.