Causality and Anticipation: Analysis of the concept of anticipation can contribute to the philosophy of biology.

I have discussed the problem whether an explanation of the phenomena of life can be deduced from an exclusive reliance on causal relationship as in the currently accepted physical description, or whether attention should be given to something more. For this more the concept of anticipation is taken. Starting from what we observe in our own minds various notions involved in the idea of anticipation have been brought forward. The picture is derived from the philosophy of A. N. Whitehead. It is admissible in this philosophy to postulate an influence of anticipation on the statistical weights which play a part in quantum physics. This influence could change the probability distribution of the results of atomic reactions and thus account for living beings having a way of behavior of their own. I have also tried to show that an inquiry into the possibility that living organisms possess features not covered by present-day physics need not lead to a belief in supernatural phenomena. The idea of purpose should not be condemned. It does not mean being directed toward a definite goal for some billions of years. Although no quantitative relations have come forward the role of anticipation can be discussed on a rational basis and finds support in an important philosophical system. It introduces some attractive features into the definition of life and it can help to probe the depth of problems which the reductionist principle leaves unanswered. It might be considered as a picture complementary to the physical picture.

Roles of radiotherapy and smoking in lung cancer following Hodgkin's disease.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that survivors of Hodgkin's disease have increased risk of lung cancer, but the factors responsible for this excess risk are not well known. PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of radiation dose, chemotherapy, and smoking on the risk of lung cancer following treatment of Hodgkin's disease. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in a cohort of 1939 patients treated for Hodgkin's disease from 1966 through 1986 in The Netherlands. Detailed treatment information was collected from the medical records for 30 case patients with lung cancer following Hodgkin's disease and 82 matched control subjects who had not developed lung cancer. Multiple sources were used to obtain as complete smoking histories of the study participants as possible. For each case-control set, the radiation dose received by the area of the lung where the case patient developed the tumor was estimated on the basis of radiotherapy charts and experimental simulations of treatments. The estimates of relative risk (RR) for lung cancer associated with specific exposures were obtained from logistic regression methods, and all tests of statistical significance were two-sided. RESULTS: A statistically significant increase in risk of lung cancer was observed with increasing radiation dose (P for trend = .01) with an RR of 9.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93-98) for patients who received 9 Gy or more compared with those who received less than 1 Gy. Patients who smoked more than 10 pack-years after the diagnosis of Hodgkin's disease had a sixfold increase in the risk of lung cancer compared with patients who smoked less than 1 pack-year (P = .03). Positive interaction on a multiplicative scale was observed between the carcinogenic effects of smoking and radiation. The increase in risk of lung cancer with increasing radiation dose was much greater among the patients who smoked after diagnosis of Hodgkin's disease than among those who refrained from smoking (P = .04). There was no increase in lung cancer risk in relation to the number of cycles of chemotherapy or the cumulative doses of the drugs mechlorethamine and procarbazine. CONCLUSIONS: The excess risk of lung cancer in Hodgkin's disease patients treated with radiotherapy is related to the radiation dose received by the affected area of the lung. Smokers experience a significantly greater risk attributable to radiotherapy than nonsmokers. IMPLICATIONS: Physicians in charge of patient treatment should make a special effort to dissuade Hodgkin's disease patients from smoking after receiving radiotherapy.

Late relapse in early-stage Hodgkin's disease patients enrolled on European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer protocols.

PURPOSE: The great majority of relapses after the treatment for early-stage Hodgkin's disease are observed within 4 to 5 years after treatment completion. This study describes the characteristics and outcome of patients who had late relapses, which was defined as relapses that occurred 5 or more years after initial treatment start. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,082 adult patients with early clinical stage Hodgkin's disease were enrolled on three consecutive European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) protocols (H1, H2, and H5 trials) from 1964 to 1981. Of these, 1,044 patients satisfied the eligibility criteria with a supradiaphragmatic localization, age greater than 15 years, and initial complete remission. Overall, 341 patients (32.6%) relapsed, 304 (29.1%) early and 37 (3.5%) late. For each of these 37 late relapsers, questionnaires were sent to the participating centers and detailed information for 34 relapses was obtained. Cumulative probabilities for developing a late relapse were estimated using the Kaplan and Meier method. Quantification of the relationship between late relapse and several confounding variables was performed using the Cox's proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The 10- and 15-year cumulative probabilities of late relapse in patients who were disease-free at 5 years were 4.8% and 8.3%, respectively. Patients treated on more recent protocols had a higher incidence of late relapse, possibly due to an attempt to tailor therapy to the specific prognostic factors (10-year cumulative probabilities, 4.6%, 2.6%, and 7.5% in trials H1, H2, and H5, respectively). Incidence of late relapses significantly correlated with male sex, B symptoms, mediastinal involvement, and treatment modality. Salvage treatment induced a complete response in 27 patients (79%) and a prolonged complete remission in 24 patients (71%). Twenty years after initial treatment start, similar overall survival rates were observed for late relapsing (72%) and nonrelapsing patients (75%). CONCLUSION: Late relapses of Hodgkin's disease are uncommon, but may be more frequent with recent protocols tailored to specific prognostic factors. If treated, their outcome is favorable. Late relapse is therefore another factor indicating that careful, long-term follow-up is needed for patients with Hodgkin's disease.

Clinical stages I and II Hodgkin's disease: a specifically tailored therapy according to prognostic factors.

The H5 program in clinical stage (CS) I to II supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease (HD) was tailored to prognostic factors identified in former European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) studies. Among the 494 adult patients included in the study, the 237 patients belonging to the favorable group (H5F) underwent a staging laparotomy (Sx) in order to select the patients who could be treated with limited radiotherapy (RT) only. Thus, 198 patients (84%) with negative laparotomy were treated with RT alone and randomized to either mantle irradiation (M) or extended field mantle plus para-aortic (M + PA) irradiation. Complete remission (CR) was achieved in 99% of the patients. There was no difference in the 6-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate (74% and 72%, respectively) or survival rate (96% and 89%). Therefore, Sx helped to define those patients who could be treated with M alone in contrast to those who required more aggressive therapy. The 39 patients with positive laparotomy were treated as the unfavorable group (H5U) from onset and randomized to either total/subtotal nodal irradiation (TNI/STNI) or a sandwiched mechlorethamine, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (MOPP) X 3, M irradiation, MOPP X 3 protocol (3M). Although the RFS rate was higher in the 3M arm (100% v 53%; P = .002), the 6-year survival was not significantly different between the two arms (overall, 92%). In the 257 patients with initial unfavorable disease, the Sx was avoided. They were randomized to either TNI/STNI or 3M. In complete responders (96%), the 6-year RFS was 91% in the 3M arm and 77% in the TNI/STNI arm (P = .02). The pattern of failure differed in the two arms: the inverted Y and spleen irradiation controlled occult infradiaphragmatic disease better than MOPP; conversely, less patients begun on MOPP recurred in the involved mantle areas. The difference in 6-year actuarial total survival (TS) (89% and 82%; P = .05 in favor of the 3M arm) was not retrieved after exclusion of the unrelated deaths from the analysis. The two arms produced similar TS in patients under 40 years of age. TNI retains interest, especially in young men wishing to preserve fertility. The overall result shows that when treatment is tailored to initial prognostic factors, excellent results can be obtained in all patient subgroups at minimal morbidity and toxic cost.

Effectiveness of preoperative chemotherapy in Wilms' tumor: results of an International Society of Paediatric Oncology (SIOP) clinical trial.

The results of a controlled clinical trial of preoperative radiotherapy compared to chemotherapy in patients with nephroblastoma are presented. Of 397 histologically proven cases of Wilms' tumor registered at 34 centers between January 1977 and July 1979, 164 were eligible for the trial and were randomized to receive preoperative radiotherapy and chemotherapy (group R, 76 patients) or preoperative chemotherapy (group C, 88 patients). The results were evaluated in terms of the number of surgical tumor ruptures and of local tumor extent at pathologic examination, reflecting the effectiveness of the preoperative treatment. Survival and recurrence-free survival in the two treatment groups were also taken into account. The stage distribution was comparable in the two groups, with 52% stage I tumors in group R, and 43% in group C. Significant changes in the pathologic pattern were more frequent in group R than in group C (53% versus 17%). From these data it is concluded that preoperative chemotherapy is as good as preoperative radiotherapy in terms of prevention of tumor rupture. In addition, it was shown that 43% of an unselected population of patients with Wilms' tumor could be treated without any radiotherapy when chemotherapy had been given preoperatively.

Optimal duration of preoperative therapy in unilateral and nonmetastatic Wilms' tumor in children older than 6 months: results of the Ninth International Society of Pediatric Oncology Wilms' Tumor Trial and Study.

PURPOSE: To determine the optimal duration of preoperative chemotherapy to further increase the proportion of stage I tumors by comparison of two regimens in the treatment of patients older than 6 months who have unilateral Wilms' tumor. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients (n = 382) initially received four weekly doses of vincristine (VCR) and two courses of actinomycin D (AMD) and were randomized either to be operated on (4-week group [n = 193]) or to receive 4 more weeks of the same chemotherapy regimen (8-week group [n = 189]). The assessment criterion was the observed percentage of stage I tumors. After surgery, patients were assigned according to tumor stage and histology to four different treatment groups: stage I and favorable histology (n = 5) were to have no further treatment (NFT); stage I and standard histology or anaplasia (n = 244), VCR and AMD for 17 weeks (AV); stages II and III and favorable or standard histology, VCR, AMD, and an anthracycline for 27 weeks (AVE) with no abdominal radiotherapy for stage II N0 disease (n = 75) or with a 15-Gy dose of abdominal irradiation (RTH) in case of stages IIN1 and III (n = 56). Anaplastic tumors staged higher than I or clear-cell sarcoma of the kidney (14), AMD, VCR, an anthracycline, and ifosfamide for 36 weeks (DEVI). RESULTS: No advantage was found in favor of prolonged preoperative treatment. The percentages obtained for the 4-week and the 8-week groups, respectively, were as follows: stage I, 64% versus 62%; intraoperative tumor rupture rate, 1% versus 3%; 2-year EFS, 84% versus 83%; and 5-year OS, 92% versus 87%. Two-year EFS and 5-year OS rates, respectively, of the different treatment groups were as follows: NFT, 100% for both EFS and OS; AV, 88% and 93%; AVE, 84% and 88%; AVE RTH, 71% and 85%; and DEVI, 71% and 71%. The rate of abdominal recurrences in stage II N0 nonirradiated patients was 6.6%. CONCLUSION: The 4-week schedule pre-nephrectomy chemotherapy regimen should be considered the standard treatment. Clinical trials should continue to improve the cure rate of high-risk patients and the quality of life of children with a more favorable prognosis.

Long-term risk of second malignancy in survivors of Hodgkin's disease treated during adolescence or young adulthood.

PURPOSE: To quantify the long-term risk of second primary cancers (SCs) in patients diagnosed with Hodgkin's disease (HD) during adolescence or young adulthood. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The risk of SCs was assessed in 1,253 patients diagnosed with HD before the age of 40 years and treated in two Dutch cancer centers between 1966 and 1986. The median follow-up duration was 14.1 years. RESULTS: In all, 137 patients developed SCs, compared with 19.4 cases expected on the basis of incidence rates in the general population (relative risk [RR] = 7.0; 95% confidence interval, 5.9 to 8.3). The 25-year actuarial risk of SC overall was 27.7%. The RR of solid tumors increased greatly with younger age at the first treatment of HD, not only for breast cancer but also for all other solid tumors, with RRs of 4.9, 6.9, and 12.7 for patients first treated at ages 31 to 39 years, 21 to 30 years, and

Ewing's sarcoma of the pelvis: changes over 25 years in treatment and results.

The pelvic localisations of Ewing's sarcoma have the worst prognosis due to large size at diagnosis, frequent distant metastases, radiosensitive organs next to the tumour and difficult surgery. The purpose of the present study was to analyse treatment results over a period of 25 years and to investigate the impact of newer chemotherapy schedules, improved radiotherapy techniques and newer surgical methods on the prognosis. 35 children and young adults were identified from 1967 to 1994 for whom diagnosis, presentation, performed treatment and outcome were available. Tumour size, as measured from CT scans, response to chemotherapy and radiotherapy target volume, could be reviewed in the later years. Actuarial 5-year survival for the whole group was 31% and for the 24 non-metastatic patients 40%, with a disease-free interval of 19%. Tumour size could be measured in 27 patients and ranged from 36 to 1540 cm3. There were 12 local recurrences, 1 in the 4 patients treated with surgery. After 1983, 9 out of 17 irradiated patients developed local failure. 3 patients had adequate fields and one a close field which did not cover completely the prechemotherapy extent and 3 of these recurred. All 4 patients with stable disease after neoadjuvant CT failed locally, not withstanding high-dose radiotherapy. The mean length of neoadjuvant CT tended to be shorter in patients without local relapse. There was no significant difference in survival before and after 1983.

Relation between local cure and dose-time-volume factors in interstitial implants.

The dose and volume data of 119 patients treated with radium or iridium-192 implants for cancer of the tongue, bladder or perineum are presented. The computer dosimetry system used in the Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital permitted analysis of data regarding treated volume, dose variation inside the treated volume, patterns of geographical defects and their impact on the result of treatment. Dose was expressed in a number of ways, including prescribed (reference) and average dose and the CRE (Cumulative Radiation Effect) level attained. The CRE value included a time correction and a volume correction. The average dose proved to be the best predictor of local result in case of tongue and perineal implants. Great care is needed in case of tongue carcinoma to avoid a geographical miss by an inadequate treatment volume or geometric defects. The hypothesis that a dose reduction factor is necessary, in case of a high dose rate, could not be validated.

Prognostic factors in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

The results obtained with the various types of treatment in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma are reviewed and the data from the recent EORTC trials are summarized. In patients with Stage I follicular histology, regional radiotherapy (RT) alone gives excellent results. The long-term relapse-free survival (RFS) is high and relapsing patients can be rescued by aggressive combination chemotherapy; initial chemotherapy with CVP improves RFS but not total survival (TS). In patients with Stage I diffuse histology, the long-term survival is less satisfactory. CVP chemotherapy does not improve either RFS or TS; therefore if adjuvant chemotherapy is justified, it should be more aggressive than CVP. In patients with Stage II follicular type, regional radiotherapy alone gives good results. The addition of abdominal bath irradiation to regional RT increases RFS but not TS. After relapse, patients can be rescued by combination chemotherapy. In patients with Stage II diffuse histology, extended RT followed by CVP gives poor results and RT should be combined with more aggressive combination CT; the preliminary results of an integrated alternating regimen being excellent. In patients with Stage III and IV follicular type, the 8 year TS of patients treated with combination CT regimen (CHVP) followed by localized irradiation is approximately 55%, however the indications for the various types of treatment are still unclear. In patients with diffuse Stage III and IV, the results obtained with a combination CT regimen (CHVP) are still unsatisfactory, but are better in patients treated by a more aggressive CT regimen (CHVP-Bleo-VCR). Therefore aggressive CT associated with localized irradiation appears to be the best treatment. Further research should aim to identify the optimal combination CT regimen. In patients with high grade lymphomas who have relapsed the use of bone marrow autografts will be investigated. The present data show that besides histological type and age, the main prognostic factor is total tumor body burden as assessed by clinical stage, number of involved lymph node areas, and bulk of the disease. The study of the biological characteristics of the disease may provide more powerful prognostic indicators.

Low-dose total body irradiation versus combination chemotherapy for lymphomas with follicular growth pattern.

The treatment of Non-Hodgkin's lymphomas with follicular growth pattern and advanced stage of disease remains controversial. Treatments varying from no initial treatment up to aggressive combination chemotherapy have been advocated. The EORTC Lymphoma Cooperative Group has performed a randomized prospective trial comparing short duration low dose total body irradiation (TBI) vs combination chemotherapy (CHVmP) + consolidation radiotherapy. Ninety-three patients were entered; of 84 evaluable patients, 44 received TBI and 40 CHVmP. Complete remission (CR) rates were 36%--TBI and 55%--CHVmP, but overall response rates were identical, 76 versus 69%. No significant difference in freedom from progression or survival was observed. No unexpected toxicity was seen. Although numbers are small, we cannot conclude that aggressive combination chemo-radiotherapy resulted in a better survival. Our analysis confirms that there is a constant risk of relapse. Other approaches should be explored if survival benefit is the ultimate goal in treatment of this patient population.

Discrepancies in dose and dose specification in interstitial implants.

The first step in the execution of an interstitial implant is the decision on size and location of the target volume. Several implant systems, e.g. the Paterson-Parker system and the Paris system, give instructions for the optimal arrangement of sources to assure that the planned target volume is adequately covered. They also give guidelines to calculate the reference dose rate encompassing the planned target volume. These systems provide different solutions for the source arrangement for the same planned target volume, and vice versa, resulting in different reference dose rates. The problem of dose specification is discussed. For a number of theoretical implants predicted reference dose rates for the planned target volume were compared with the computer calculated dose rates for that volume. Discrepancies increase when moderate digressions from the adopted implant system rules are allowed, such as could commonly occur clinically. For a number of examples the degree of change in dose rate, if over 10%, and the position where this deviation is likely to occur are described. For optimal results the clinician should be well aware of these variations.

Prognostic factors in the treatment of Ewing's sarcoma. The Ewing's Sarcoma Study Group of the German Society of Paediatric Oncology CESS 81.

From 1981 up to February 1985, a total of 93 protocol patients entered the study CESS 81. The protocol recommended an initial 18-week period of polychemotherapy (VACA) followed by local therapy and two additional cycles of chemotherapy. Local therapy consisted either of radical surgery or of incomplete resection plus postoperative irradiation with 36 Gy or of radiotherapy alone (46 and 60 Gy). Centrally located lesions were always irradiated with 60 Gy. This article summarizes the data after 5 years. Data of 93 patients were analysed in October 1986 after a median follow-up of 37 months. The projected 5-year survival is 50%. The relapse rate was 42%, distant relapses occurred in 19%, local (plus distant) relapses in 23%. Most of the relapses occurred during the first 3 years of observation. Failure rate was high in patients undergoing irradiation alone (44%). Initial tumour mass (greater than 100 ml) and histopathologic response to initial chemotherapy were identified as major prognostic factors. Tumour site and type of local therapy were not significant if patients were categorised by tumour volume. In small lesions, surgery and radiotherapy were equally effective. In large lesions greater than 100 ml volume, a trend towards a better prognosis in surgically treated patients was observed. The results of CESS 81 emphasize the importance of permanent local control in Ewing's sarcoma even in the presence of systemic control by an effective multi-drug chemotherapy.

Treatment results of primary stage I and II non-Hodgkin's lymphoma of the stomach.

Gastric lymphoma in stage I or II was usually treated by partial gastrectomy and total abdominal irradiation in our institute since 1970. Since 1978, a number of patients were also treated without laparotomy, in clinical stage I with radiotherapy only and in clinical stage II with combined modality treatment. Treatment results of 58 patients are reported. A relapse-free survival rate of 85% was reached for 24 patients treated with resection and irradiation either in stage I or II, and for seven patients in stage I who did not undergo surgery. For these patients, survival in stage I was 85%, in stage II, however, survival dropped to 60% due to intercurrent deaths. Seven stage II2 patients received intensive chemotherapy and radiotherapy with 58% relapse-free survival. Twenty patients could not be treated according to the outlined treatment protocol. For the total group, survival in stage I is 65% and in stage II 35%. In the Addendum, an additional group of 17 patients is mentioned with the same result.

Abdominal recurrences in Wilms' tumours: a report from the SIOP Wilms' tumour trials and studies.

The Wilms' tumour trials and studies conducted from 1971 to 1980 registered 1042 patients. Of these, 82 patients developed an abdominal recurrence. Particulars of these were studied. Half of the recurrences occurred in stage III patients. Often several untoward prognostic factors could be identified, such as large tumour size, difficult operation, incomplete excision, peritoneal adhesions or metastases, tumour extending to renal vein or vena cava. A tumour rupture increases the chance for an abdominal recurrence, especially if appropriate radiotherapy is not given. In many of these cases, postoperative radiotherapy seems to have been insufficiently tailored to the operative findings. For stage III cases, a careful discussion between surgeon, radiotherapist, and pathologist should lead to the optimal radiotherapy field size and dose for each individual patient, so that the risk of abdominal recurrence can be reduced.

Late radiation injuries of the gastrointestinal tract in the H2 and H5 EORTC Hodgkin's disease trials: emphasis on the role of exploratory laparotomy and fractionation.

Out of 516 patients who entered in the two successive EORTC trials H2 and H5 for supra-diaphragmatic stages I and II Hodgkin's disease (HD), and who received an infra-diaphragmatic irradiation, 36 (7%) developed late radiation injuries of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). Twenty-five patients presented with ulcers (stomach or duodenum), 2 with severe gastritis, 6 with small bowel obstruction or perforation and 3 patients had both an ulcer and bowel obstruction. A previous laparotomy played an important role. While the complication rate was 2.7% without any previous abdominal surgery, it was 11.5% after laparotomy (p less than 0.001). Fractionation was also found to be of importance in the occurrence of complications: three different weekly schedules were used -5 x 2 Gy, 4 x 2.5 Gy and 3 x 3.3 Gy; the GIT complication rates were 4, 9 and 22%, respectively (p less than 0.001). When combining laparotomy and fractionation, we found that the patients who were treated using 5 weekly fractions of 2 Gy without any prior laparotomy had a very low rate of late digestive complications (1%), whereas the patients who received 3 weekly fractions of 3.3 Gy after laparotomy presented a 39% complication rate. The other subgroups of patients were at an intermediate risk (from 5 to 13%) of late digestive injuries. Since most patients received 40 Gy with only very small variations, the influence of the radiation dose could not be investigated.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Combined radiotherapy-chemotherapy for early stages non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: the 1975-1980 EORTC controlled lymphoma trial.

Patients with stage I and II non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are considered to have a relatively good prognosis. For this reason, they are seldom referred to specialized centers and the accrual of such patients in controlled studies is limited. Therefore, significant studies of homogeneously treated patients are difficult to collect and the management of these patients remains controversial. Some patients do very well after treatments with minimal toxicity while others require a much more aggressive approach. The Radiotherapy-Chemotherapy Group of the EORTC carried out its second controlled trial on patients with stage I and II NHL from 1975 to 1980. Its first aim was to assess the prognostic value of histologic classifications independently of treatment. The second aim was to compare two therapeutic options within each stage. In stage I, 124 patients were randomized to receive extended field radiotherapy (RT) either with or without adjuvant cyclophosphamide, vincristine prednisone (CVP) chemotherapy (CT). Relapse-free survival (RFS) was higher in patients who received adjuvant CVP but the total survival rates were not different. The RFS was lower in patients with diffuse than in those with follicular architectural histologies; in the former, RFS was not influenced by adjuvant CVP. Those patients who underwent a staging laparotomy had a higher 5-year total survival (TS) independent of the histologic type. Fifty-six stage II patients were included and extended field was randomized versus total nodal irradiation. Subsequently, adjuvant CVP was given to all patients. Results are good in follicular histologies but the advantage for total nodal irradiation is not significant. In diffuse histologies, results were unsatisfactory in both arms; a new therapeutic strategy was designed in which RT and CT are alternated and has been successfully tested in a pilot study.