Global, Regional, and National Estimates of Rotavirus Mortality in Children <5 Years of Age, 2000-2013.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine is recommended for routine use in all countries globally. To facilitate decision making on rotavirus vaccine adoption by countries, help donors prioritize investments in health interventions, and monitor vaccine impact, we estimated rotavirus mortality for children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013. METHODS: We searched PubMed using the keyword "rotavirus" to identify studies that met each of the following criteria: data collection midpoint in year 1998 or later, study period of a 12-month increment, and detection of rotavirus infection by enzyme immunoassay in at least 100 children <5 years of age who were hospitalized with diarrhea and systematically enrolled through active surveillance. We also included data from countries that participated in the World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated rotavirus surveillance network between 2008 and 2013 that met these criteria. To predict the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus, we constructed a multiple linear regression model. To determine the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age from 2000 to 2013, we multiplied annual, country-specific estimates of the proportion of diarrhea due to rotavirus from the regression model by the annual number of WHO-estimated child deaths caused by diarrhea in each country. RESULTS: Globally, we estimated that the number of rotavirus deaths in children <5 years of age declined from 528 000 (range, 465 000-591 000) in 2000 to 215 000 (range, 197 000-233 000) in 2013. The predicted annual rotavirus detection rate from these studies declined slightly over time from 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.4%-47.5%) in 2000 to 37.3% (95% CI, 34.2%-40.5%) in 2013 globally. In 2013, an estimated 47 100 rotavirus deaths occurred in India, 22% of all rotavirus deaths that occurred globally. Four countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Democratic Republic of Congo) accounted for approximately half (49%) of all estimated rotavirus deaths in 2013. DISCUSSION: While rotavirus vaccine had been introduced in >60 countries worldwide by the end of 2013, the majority of countries using rotavirus vaccine during the review period were low-mortality countries and the impact of rotavirus vaccine on global estimates of rotavirus mortality has been limited. Continued monitoring of rotavirus mortality rates and deaths through rotavirus surveillance will aid in monitoring the impact of vaccination.

Priming after a fractional dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the costs of maintaining a poliovirus immunization base in low-income areas, we assessed the extent of priming immune responses after the administration of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). METHODS: We compared the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a fractional dose of IPV (one fifth of a full dose) administered intradermally with a full dose administered intramuscularly in Cuban infants at the ages of 4 and 8 months. Blood was collected from infants at the ages of 4 months, 8 months, 8 months 7 days, and 8 months 30 days to assess single-dose seroconversion, single-dose priming of immune responses, and two-dose seroconversion. Specimens were tested with a neutralization assay. RESULTS: A total of 320 infants underwent randomization, and 310 infants (96.9%) fulfilled the study requirements. In the group receiving the first fractional dose of IPV, seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 16.6%, 47.1%, and 14.7% of participants, respectively, as compared with 46.6%, 62.8%, and 32.0% in the group receiving the first full dose of IPV (P<0.008 for all comparisons). A priming immune response to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 90.8%, 94.0%, and 89.6% of participants, respectively, in the group receiving the fractional dose as compared with 97.6%, 98.3%, and 98.1% in the group receiving the full dose (P=0.01 for the comparison with type 3). After the administration of the second dose of IPV in the group receiving fractional doses, cumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 occurred in 93.6%, 98.1%, and 93.0% of participants, respectively, as compared with 100.0%, 100.0%, and 99.4% in the group receiving the full dose (P<0.006 for the comparisons of types 1 and 3). The group receiving intradermal injections had the greatest number of adverse events, most of which were minor in intensity and none of which had serious consequences. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation shows that vaccinating infants with a single fractional dose of IPV can induce priming and seroconversion in more than 90% of immunized infants. (Funded by the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization; Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12610001046099.).

Intestinal immunity is a determinant of clearance of poliovirus after oral vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Response to challenge with live, attenuated, oral polio vaccine (OPV) is a measure of immunity induced by prior immunization. METHODS: Using stool samples from a study from Oman in which an initial schedule of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) was followed by an OPV type 1 challenge, we quantitated virus shed, sequenced capsid proteins of recovered virus, and developed assays for neutralization of poliovirus and mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) detection. RESULTS: Neutralizing activity correlated with detection of polio-specific IgA in stool suspensions collected 7 days after OPV type 1 challenge. Both neutralization and IgA in stool were associated with cessation of virus shedding by day 7. Rapid development of an IgA response with cessation of shedding suggests that IPV primed for the early response to challenge. Correlation of neutralization activity and IgA detection provides evidence that polio-specific IgA intestinal antibody is a determinant of mucosal shedding/transmission and that IgA functions through neutralization of virus. In contrast, neither presence nor quantity of serum or intestinal antibody induced by IPV prior to challenge correlated with cessation of shedding. CONCLUSIONS: These assays provide an opportunity to study other immunization schedules to gain a broader understanding of the appearance and duration of a protective mucosal response to polio vaccination.

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In 2008 all WHO member states endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality by 2010 over 2000 levels. We developed a model to estimate progress made towards this goal. METHODS: We constructed a state-space model with population and immunisation coverage estimates and reported surveillance data to estimate annual national measles cases, distributed across age classes. We estimated deaths by applying age-specific and country-specific case-fatality ratios to estimated cases in each age-country class. FINDINGS: Estimated global measles mortality decreased 74% from 535,300 deaths (95% CI 347,200-976,400) in 2000 to 139,300 (71,200-447,800) in 2010. Measles mortality was reduced by more than three-quarters in all WHO regions except the WHO southeast Asia region. India accounted for 47% of estimated measles mortality in 2010, and the WHO African region accounted for 36%. INTERPRETATION: Despite rapid progress in measles control from 2000 to 2007, delayed implementation of accelerated disease control in India and continued outbreaks in Africa stalled momentum towards the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal. Intensified control measures and renewed political and financial commitment are needed to achieve mortality reduction targets and lay the foundation for future global eradication of measles. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (PMS 5U66/IP000161).

Fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Oman.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a clinical trial of fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine administered to infants in Oman, in order to evaluate strategies for making the vaccine affordable for use in developing countries. METHODS: We compared fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (0.1 ml, representing one fifth of a full dose) given intradermally with the use of a needle-free jet injector device, with full doses of vaccine given intramuscularly, with respect to immunogenicity and reactogenicity. Infants were randomly assigned at birth to receive either a fractional dose or a full dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine at 2, 4, and 6 months. We also administered a challenge dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine at 7 months and collected stool samples before and 7 days after administration of the challenge dose. RESULTS: A total of 400 infants were randomized, of whom 373 (93.2%) fulfilled the study requirements. No significant baseline differences between the groups were detected. Thirty days after completion of the three-dose schedule, the rates of seroconversion to types 1, 2, and 3 poliovirus were 97.3%, 95.7%, and 97.9%, respectively, in the fractional-dose group, as compared with 100% seroconversion to all serotypes in the full-dose group (P=0.01 for the comparison with respect to type 2 poliovirus; results with respect to types 1 and 3 poliovirus were not significant). The median titers were significantly lower in the fractional-dose group than in the full-dose group (P<0.001 for all three poliovirus serotypes). At 7 months, 74.8% of the infants in the fractional-dose group and 63.1% of those in full-dose group excreted type 1 poliovirus (P=0.03). Between birth and 7 months, 42 hospitalizations were reported, all related to infectious causes, anemia, or falls, with no significant difference between vaccination groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine administered intradermally at 2, 4, and 6 months, as compared with full doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine given intramuscularly on the same schedule, induce similar levels of seroconversion but significantly lower titers. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN17418767.)

Randomized trial of type 1 and type 3 oral monovalent poliovirus vaccines in newborns in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative aims to eradicate wild poliovirus by the end of 2012. Therefore, more-immunogenic polio vaccines, including monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines (mOPVs), are needed for supplemental immunization activities. This trial assessed the immunogenicity of monovalent types 1 and 3, compared with that of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV), in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a blinded, randomized, 4-arm controlled trial comparing the immunogenicity of a single dose of mOPV1 (from 2 manufacturers) and mOPV3 (from 1 manufacturer), given at birth, with the immunogenicity of tOPV. RESULTS: Eight hundred newborns were enrolled; 762 (95%) were included in the analysis. At 30 days after vaccine administration, seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 73.4% and 76.4% in the 2 mOPV1 arms, compared with 39.1% in the tOPV arm (P < .0000001), and seroconversion to poliovirus type 3 was 58.0% in the mOPV3 arm, compared with 21.2% in the tOPV arm (P < .0000001). The vaccines were well tolerated, and no adverse events were attributed to trial interventions. CONCLUSION: A dose of mOPV1 or mOPV3 at birth was superior to that of tOPV in inducing type-specific seroconversion in this sub-Saharan African population. Our results support continued use of mOPVs in supplemental immunization activities in countries where poliovirus types 1 or 3 circulate. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN18107202.

Immunogenicity of bivalent types 1 and 3 oral poliovirus vaccine: a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Poliovirus types 1 and 3 co-circulate in poliomyelitis-endemic countries. We aimed to assess the immunogenicity of a novel bivalent types 1 and 3 oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV). METHODS: We did a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial to assess the superiority of monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2), mOPV3, or bOPV over trivalent OPV (tOPV), and the non-inferiority of bivalent vaccine compared with mOPV1 and mOPV3. The study was done at three centres in India between Aug 6, 2008, and Dec 26, 2008. Random allocation was done by permuted blocks of ten. The primary outcome was seroconversion after one monovalent or bivalent vaccine dose compared with a dose of trivalent vaccine at birth. The secondary endpoints were seroconversion after two vaccine doses compared with after two trivalent vaccine doses and cumulative two-dose seroconversion. Parents or guardians and study investigators were masked to treatment allocation. Because of multiple comparisons, we defined p≤0·01 as statistically significant. This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN 64725429. RESULTS: 900 newborn babies were randomly assigned to one of five vaccine groups (about 180 patients per group); of these 70 (8%) discontinued, leaving 830 (92%) for analysis. After the first dose, seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 20% for both mOPV1 (33 of 168) and bOPV (32 of 159) compared with 15% for tOPV (25 of 168; p>0·01), to poliovirus type 2 was 21% (35 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 25% (42 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 12% (20 of 165) for mOPV3 and 7% (11 of 159) for bOPV compared with 4% (7 of 168) for tOPV (mOPV3 vs tOPV p=0·01; bOPV vs tOPV; p>0·01). Cumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 90% (151 of 168) for mOPV1 and 86% (136 of 159) for bOPV compared with 63% (106 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001), to poliovirus type 2 was 90% (153 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 91% (153 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 84% (138 of 165) for mOPV3 and 74% (117 of 159) for bOPV compared with 52% (87 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001). The vaccines were well tolerated. 19 serious adverse events occurred, including one death; however, these events were not attributed to the trial interventions. INTERPRETATION: The findings show the superiority of bOPV compared with tOPV, and the non-inferiority of bOPV compared with mOPV1 and mOPV3. FUNDING: GAVI Alliance, World Health Organization, and Panacea Biotec.

Monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine in newborns.

BACKGROUND: In 1988, the World Health Assembly resolved to eradicate poliomyelitis. Although substantial progress toward this goal has been made, eradication remains elusive. In 2004, the World Health Organization called for the development of a potentially more immunogenic monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine. METHODS: We conducted a trial in Egypt to compare the immunogenicity of a newly licensed monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine with that of a trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive one dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine or trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine at birth. Thirty days after birth, a single challenge dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine was administered in all subjects. Shedding of serotype 1 poliovirus was assessed through day 60. RESULTS: A total of 530 subjects were enrolled, and 421 fulfilled the study requirements. Thirty days after the study vaccines were administered, the rate of seroconversion to type 1 poliovirus was 55.4% in the monovalent-vaccine group, as compared with 32.1% in the trivalent-vaccine group (P<0.001). Among those with a high reciprocal titer of maternally derived antibodies against type 1 poliovirus (>64), 46.0% of the subjects in the monovalent-vaccine group underwent seroconversion, as compared with 21.3% in the trivalent-vaccine group (P<0.001). Seven days after administration of the challenge dose of monovalent type 1 vaccine, a significantly lower proportion of subjects in the monovalent-vaccine group than in the trivalent-vaccine group excreted type 1 poliovirus (25.9% vs. 41.5%, P=0.001). None of the serious adverse events reported were attributed to the trial interventions. CONCLUSIONS: When given at birth, monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine is superior to trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine in inducing humoral antibodies against type 1 poliovirus, overcoming high preexisting levels of maternally derived antibodies, and increasing the resistance to excretion of type 1 poliovirus after administration of a challenge dose. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN76316509.)

Accounting for model uncertainty in estimating global burden of disease.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the effects of failing to account for model uncertainty when modelling is used to estimate the global burden of disease, with specific application to childhood deaths from rotavirus infection. METHODS: To estimate the global burden of rotavirus infection, different random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression models were constructed by varying the stratification criteria and including different combinations of covariates. Bayesian model averaging was used to combine the results across models and to provide a measure of uncertainty that reflects the choice of model and the sampling variability. FINDINGS: In the models examined, the estimated number of child deaths from rotavirus infection varied between 492,000 and 664,000. While averaging over the different models' estimates resulted in a modest increase in the estimated number of deaths (541,000 as compared with the World Health Organization's estimate of 527,000), the width of the 95% confidence interval increased from 105,000 to 198,000 deaths when model uncertainty was taken into account. CONCLUSION: Sampling variability explains only a portion of the overall uncertainty in a modelled estimate. The uncertainty owing to both the sampling variability and the choice of model(s) should be given when disease burden results are presented. Failure to properly account for uncertainty in disease burden estimates may lead to inappropriate uses of the estimates and inaccurate prioritization of global health needs.

A mid-term assessment of progress towards the immunization coverage goal of the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS).

BACKGROUND: The Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS) (2006-2015) aims to reach and sustain high levels of vaccine coverage, provide immunization services to age groups beyond infancy and to those currently not reached, and to ensure that immunization activities are linked with other health interventions and contribute to the overall development of the health sector. OBJECTIVE: To examine mid-term progress (through 2010) of the immunization coverage goal of the GIVS for 194 countries or territories with special attention to data from 68 countries which account for more than 95% of all maternal and child deaths. METHODS: We present national immunization coverage estimates for the third dose of diphtheria and tetanus toxoid with pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and the first dose of measles containing vaccine (MCV) during 2000, 2005 and 2010 and report the average annual relative percent change during 2000-2005 and 2005-2010. Data are taken from the WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage, which refer to immunizations given during routine immunization services to children less than 12 months of age where immunization services are recorded. RESULTS: Globally DTP3 coverage increased from 74% during 2000 to 85% during 2010, and MCV coverage increased from 72% during 2000 to 85% during 2010. A total of 149 countries attained or were on track to achieve the 90% coverage goal for DTP3 (147 countries for MCV coverage). DTP3 coverage ≥ 90% was sustained between 2005 and 2010 by 99 countries (98 countries for MCV). Among 68 priority countries, 28 countries were identified as having made either insufficient or no progress towards reaching the GIVS goal of 90% coverage by 2015 for DTP3 or MCV. DTP3 and MCV coverage remained < 70% during 2010 for 16 and 21 priority countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: Progress towards GIVS goals highlights improvements in routine immunization coverage, yet it is troubling to observe priority countries with little or no progress during the past five years. These results highlight that further efforts are needed to achieve and maintain the global immunization coverage goals.

Randomized controlled clinical trial of fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine administered intradermally by needle-free device in Cuba.

BACKGROUND: As part of an evaluation of strategies to make inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) affordable for developing countries, we conducted a clinical trial of fractional doses of IPV in Cuba. METHODS: We compared the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of fractional-dose IPV (0.1 mL, or 1/5 of a full dose) given intradermally using a needle-free jet injector device compared with full doses given intramuscularly. Subjects were randomized at birth to receive IPV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 471 subjects were randomized to the 2 study groups, and 364 subjects fulfilled the study requirements. No significant differences at baseline were detected. Thirty days after completing the 3-dose schedule of IPV, 52.9%, 85.0%, and 69.0% of subjects in the fractional-dose IPV arm seroconverted for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively, whereas 89.3%, 95.5%, and 98.9% of subjects in the full-dose IPV arm seroconverted for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively (all comparisons, P < .001). The median titers of each poliovirus serotype were significantly lower in the intradermal arm than in the intramuscular arm (P < .001). Only minor local adverse effects and no moderate or serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale evaluation demonstrates the feasibility of fractional doses of IPV given intradermally as an antigen-sparing strategy but also shows that IPV given to infants at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age results in suboptimal immunogenicity (especially for the fractional-dose arm).

Global mortality associated with rotavirus disease among children in 2004.

BACKGROUND: As new rotavirus vaccines are being introduced in immunization programs, global and national estimates of disease burden, especially rotavirus-associated mortality, are needed to assess the potential health benefits of vaccination and to monitor vaccine impact. METHODS: We identified 76 studies that were initiated after 1990, lasted at least 1 full year, and examined rotavirus among >100 children hospitalized with diarrhea. The studies were assigned to 5 groups (A-E) with use of World Health Organization classification of countries by child mortality and geography. For each group, the mean rotavirus detection rate was multiplied by diarrhea-related mortality figures from 2004 for countries in that group to yield estimates of rotavirus-associated mortality. RESULTS: Overall, rotavirus accounted for 527,000 deaths (95% confidence interval, 475,000-580,000 deaths) annually or 29% of all deaths due to diarrhea among children <5 years of age. Twenty-three percent of deaths due to rotavirus disease occurred in India, and 6 countries (India, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, China, and Pakistan) accounted for more than one-half of deaths due to rotavirus disease. CONCLUSIONS: The high mortality associated with rotavirus disease underscores the need for targeted interventions, such as vaccines. To realize the full life-saving potential of vaccines, it will be vital to ensure that they reach children in countries with high mortality. These baseline figures will allow future assessment of vaccine impact on rotavirus-associated mortality.

WHO and UNICEF estimates of national infant immunization coverage: methods and processes.

WHO and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) annually review data on immunization coverage to estimate national coverage with routine service delivery of the following vaccines: bacille Calmette-Guérin; diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, first and third doses; either oral polio vaccine or inactivated polio vaccine, third dose of either; hepatitis B, third dose; Haemophilus influenzae type b, third dose; and a measles virus-containing vaccine, either for measles alone or in the form of a combination vaccine, one dose. The estimates are based on government reports submitted to WHO and UNICEF and are supplemented by survey results from the published and grey literature. Local experts, primarily national immunization system managers and WHO/UNICEF regional and national staff, are consulted for additional information on the performance of specific immunization systems. Estimates are derived through a country-by-country review of available data informed and constrained by a set of heuristics; no statistical or mathematical models are used. Draft estimates are made, sent to national authorities for review and comment and modified in light of their feedback. While the final estimates may not differ from reported data, they constitute an independent technical assessment by WHO and UNICEF of the performance of national immunization systems. These country-specific estimates, available from 1980 onward, are updated annually.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D: a predictor of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: People with diabetes frequently develop vascular disease. We investigated the relationship between blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OH-D) concentration and vascular disease risk in type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The relationships between blood 25OH-D concentration at baseline and the incidence of macrovascular (including myocardial infarction and stroke) and microvascular (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, and amputation) disease were analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression in an observational study of patients in the 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes trial. RESULTS: A total of 50% of the patients had low vitamin D concentrations, as indicated by median blood 25OH-D concentration of 49 nmol/L. These patients with a blood 25OH-D concentration <50 nmol/L had a higher cumulative incidence of macrovascular and microvascular events than those with levels ≥50 nmol/L. Multivariate analysis, stratified by treatment and adjusted for relevant confounders, identified blood 25OH-D concentration as an independent predictor of macrovascular events. A 50 nmol/L difference in blood 25OH-D concentration was associated with a 23% (P = 0.007) change in risk of macrovascular complications during the study, and further adjustments for seasonality, hs-CRP, and physical activity level had little impact. The unadjusted risk of microvascular complications was 18% (P = 0.006) higher during the study, though the excess risk declined to 11-14% and lost significance with adjustment for HbA1c, seasonality, or physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Low blood 25OH-D concentrations are associated with an increased risk of macrovascular and microvascular disease events in type 2 diabetes. However, a causal link remains to be demonstrated.

Is enough attention given to climate change in health service planning? An Australian perspective.

BACKGROUND: Within an Australian context, the medium to long-term health impacts of climate change are likely to be wide, varied and amplify many existing disorders and health inequities. How the health system responds to these challenges will be best considered in the context of existing health facilities and services. This paper provides a snapshot of the understanding that Australian health planners have of the potential health impacts of climate change. METHODS: The first author interviewed (n=16) health service planners from five Australian states and territories using an interpretivist paradigm. All interviews were digitally recorded, key components transcribed and thematically analysed. RESULTS: Results indicate that the majority of participants were aware of climate change but not of its potential health impacts. Despite this, most planners were of the opinion that they would need to plan for the health impacts of climate change on the community. CONCLUSION: With the best available evidence pointing towards there being significant health impacts as a result of climate change, now is the time to undertake proactive service planning that address market failures within the health system. If considered planning is not undertaken then Australian health system can only deal with climate change in an expensive ad hoc, crisis management manner. Without meeting the challenges of climate change to the health system head on, Australia will remain unprepared for the health impacts of climate change with negative consequences for the health of the Australian population.

Reactogenicity and immunogenicity of inactivated poliovirus vaccine produced from Sabin strains: a phase I Trial in healthy adults in Cuba.

BACKGROUND: To ensure that developing countries have the option to produce inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), the Global Polio Eradication Initiative has promoted the development of an IPV using Sabin poliovirus strains (Sabin IPV). This trial assessed the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of Sabin IPV and adjuvanted Sabin IPV in healthy adults in Cuba. METHODS: This is a randomized, controlled phase I trial, enrolling 60 healthy (previously vaccinated) male human volunteers, aged 19-23 years to receive one dose of either Sabin IPV (20:32:64 DU/dose), adjuvanted Sabin IPV (10:16:32 DU/dose), or conventional Salk IPV (40:8:32 DU/dose). The primary endpoint for reactogenicity relied on monitoring of adverse events. The secondary endpoint measured boosting immune responses (i.e. seroconversion or 4-fold rise) of poliovirus antibody, assessed by neutralization assays. RESULTS: Sixty subjects fulfilled the study requirements. No serious adverse events reported were attributed to trial interventions during the 6-month follow-up period. Twenty-eight days after vaccination, boosting immune responses against poliovirus types 1-3 were between 90% and 100% in all vaccination groups. There was a more than 6-fold increase in median antibody titers between pre- and post-vaccination titers in all vaccination groups. DISCUSSION: Both Sabin IPV and adjuvanted Sabin IPV were well tolerated and immunogenic against all poliovirus serotypes. This result suggests that the aluminum adjuvant may allow a 50% (or higher) dose reduction.

A formal representation of the WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage: a computational logic approach.

Production of official statistics frequently requires expert judgement to evaluate and reconcile data of unknown and varying quality from multiple and potentially conflicting sources. Moreover, exceptional events may be difficult to incorporate in modelled estimates. Computational logic provides a methodology and tools for incorporating analyst's judgement, integrating multiple data sources and modelling methods, ensuring transparency and replicability, and making documentation computationally accessible. Representations using computational logic can be implemented in a variety of computer-based languages for automated production. Computational logic complements standard mathematical and statistical techniques and extends the flexibility of mathematical and statistical modelling. A basic overview of computational logic is presented and its application to official statistics is illustrated with the WHO & UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage.

2008 estimate of worldwide rotavirus-associated mortality in children younger than 5 years before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends routine use of rotavirus vaccines in all countries, particularly in those with high mortality attributable to diarrhoeal diseases. To establish the burden of life-threatening rotavirus disease before the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine, we aimed to update the estimated number of deaths worldwide in children younger than 5 years due to diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection. METHODS: We used PubMed to identify studies of at least 100 children younger than 5 years who had been admitted to hospital with diarrhoea. Additionally, we required the studies to have a data collection midpoint of the year 2000 or later, to be done in full-year increments, and to assesses diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus with EIAs or polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. We also included data from countries that participated in the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (consisting of participating member states during 2009) and that met study criteria. For countries that have introduced a rotavirus vaccine into their national immunisation programmes, we excluded data subsequent to the introduction. We classified studies into one of five groups on the basis of region and the level of child mortality in the country in which the study was done. For each group, to obtain estimates of rotavirus-associated mortality, we multiplied the random-effect mean rotavirus detection rate by the 2008 diarrhoea-related mortality figures for countries in that group. We derived the worldwide mortality estimate by summing our regional estimates. FINDINGS: Worldwide in 2008, diarrhoea attributable to rotavirus infection resulted in 453,000 deaths (95% CI 420,000-494,000) in children younger than 5 years-37% of deaths attributable to diarrhoea and 5% of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Five countries accounted for more than half of all deaths attributable to rotavirus infection: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan; India alone accounted for 22% of deaths (98,621 deaths). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of effective and available rotavirus vaccines could substantially affect worldwide deaths attributable to diarrhoea. Our new estimates can be used to advocate for rotavirus vaccine introduction and to monitor the effect of vaccination on mortality once introduced.