Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. METHODS: We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. FINDINGS: We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. INTERPRETATION: We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. FUNDING: NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

Predicting Radiotherapy Patient Outcomes with Real-Time Clinical Data Using Mathematical Modelling.

Longitudinal tumour volume data from head-and-neck cancer patients show that tumours of comparable pre-treatment size and stage may respond very differently to the same radiotherapy fractionation protocol. Mathematical models are often proposed to predict treatment outcome in this context, and have the potential to guide clinical decision-making and inform personalised fractionation protocols. Hindering effective use of models in this context is the sparsity of clinical measurements juxtaposed with the model complexity required to produce the full range of possible patient responses. In this work, we present a compartment model of tumour volume and tumour composition, which, despite relative simplicity, is capable of producing a wide range of patient responses. We then develop novel statistical methodology and leverage a cohort of existing clinical data to produce a predictive model of both tumour volume progression and the associated level of uncertainty that evolves throughout a patient's course of treatment. To capture inter-patient variability, all model parameters are patient specific, with a bootstrap particle filter-like Bayesian approach developed to model a set of training data as prior knowledge. We validate our approach against a subset of unseen data, and demonstrate both the predictive ability of our trained model and its limitations.

Essentially unedited deep-learning-based OARs are suitable for rigorous oropharyngeal and laryngeal cancer treatment planning.

Quality of organ at risk (OAR) autosegmentation is often judged by concordance metrics against the human-generated gold standard. However, the ultimate goal is the ability to use unedited autosegmented OARs in treatment planning, while maintaining the plan quality. We tested this approach with head and neck (HN) OARs generated by a prototype deep-learning (DL) model on patients previously treated for oropharyngeal and laryngeal cancer. Forty patients were selected, with all structures delineated by an experienced physician. For each patient, a set of 13 OARs were generated by the DL model. Each patient was re-planned based on original targets and unedited DL-produced OARs. The new dose distributions were then applied back to the manually delineated structures. The target coverage was evaluated with inhomogeneity index (II) and the relative volume of regret. For the OARs, Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of areas under the DVH curves, individual DVH objectives, and composite continuous plan quality metric (PQM) were compared. The nearly identical primary target coverage for the original and re-generated plans was achieved, with the same II and relative volume of regret values. The average DSC of the areas under the corresponding pairs of DVH curves was 0.97 ± 0.06. The number of critical DVH points which met the clinical objectives with the dose optimized on autosegmented structures but failed when evaluated on the manual ones was 5 of 896 (0.6%). The average OAR PQM score with the re-planned dose distributions was essentially the same when evaluated either on the autosegmented or manual OARs. Thus, rigorous HN treatment planning is possible with OARs segmented by a prototype DL algorithm with minimal, if any, manual editing.

Technical feasibility of novel immunostimulatory low-dose radiation for polymetastatic disease with CBCT-based online adaptive and conventional approaches.

PURPOSE: A workflow/planning strategy delivering low-dose radiation therapy (LDRT) (1 Gy) to all polymetastatic diseases using conventional planning/delivery (Raystation/Halcyon = "conventional") and the AI-based Ethos online adaptive RT (oART) platform is developed/evaluated. METHODS: Using retrospective data for ten polymetastatic non-small cell lung cancer patients (5-52 lesions each) with PET/CTs, gross tumor volumes (GTVs) were delineated using PET standardized-uptake-value (SUV) thresholding. A 1 cm uniform expansion of GTVs to account for setup/contour uncertainty and organ motion-generated planning target volumes (PTVs). Dose optimization/calculation used the diagnostic CT from PET/CT. Dosimetric objectives were: Dmin,0.03cc ≥ 95% (acceptable variation (Δ) ≥ 90%), V100% ≥ 95% (Δ ≥ 90%), and D0.03cc ≤ 120% (Δ ≤ 125%). Additionally, online adaptation was simulated. When available, subsequent diagnostic CT was used to represent on-treatment CBCT. Otherwise, the CT from PET/CT used for initial planning was deformed to simulate clinically representative changes. RESULTS: All initial plans generated, both for Raystation and Ethos, achieved clinical goals within acceptable variation. For all patients, Dmin,0.03cc ≥ 95%, V100% ≥ 95%, and D0.03cc ≤ 120% goals were achieved for 84.8%/99.5%, 97.7%/98.7%, 97.4%/92.3%, in conventional/Ethos plans, respectively. The ratio of 50% isodose volume to PTV volume (R50%), maximum dose at 2 cm from PTV (D2cm), and the ratio of the 100% isodose volume to PTV volume (conformity index) in Raystation/Ethos plans were 7.9/5.9; 102.3%/88.44%; and 0.99/1.01, respectively. In Ethos, online adapted plans maintained PTV coverage whereas scheduled plans often resulted in geographic misses due to changes in tumor size, patient position, and body habitus. The average total duration of the oART workflow was 26:15 (min:sec) ranging from 6:43 to 57:30. The duration of each oART workflow step as a function of a number of targets showed a low correlation coefficient for influencer generation and editing (R2 = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively) and high correlation coefficient for target generation, target editing and plan generation (R2 = 0.68, 0.63 and 0.69, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates feasibility of conventional planning/treatment with Raystation/Halcyon and highlights efficiency gains when utilizing semi-automated planning/online-adaptive treatment with Ethos for immunostimulatory LDRT conformally delivered to all sites of polymetastatic disease.

Combined nivolumab and ipilimumab with or without stereotactic body radiation therapy for advanced Merkel cell carcinoma: a randomised, open label, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma is among the most aggressive and lethal of primary skin cancers, with a high rate of distant metastasis. Anti-programmed death receptor 1 (anti-PD-1) and programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) monotherapy is currently standard of care for unresectable, recurrent, or metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma. We assessed treatment with combined nivolumab plus ipilimumab, with or without stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with advanced Merkel cell carcinoma as a first-line therapy or following previous treatment with anti-PD-1 and PD-L1 monotherapy. METHODS: In this randomised, open label, phase 2 trial, we randomly assigned adults from two cancer sites in the USA (one in Florida and one in Ohio) to group A (combined nivolumab and ipilimumab) or group B (combined nivolumab and ipilimumab plus SBRT) in a 1:1 ratio. Eligible patients were aged at least 18 years with histologically proven advanced stage (unresectable, recurrent, or stage IV) Merkel cell carcinoma, a minimum of two tumour lesions measureable by CT, MRI or clinical exam, and tumour tissue available for exploratory biomarker analysis. Patients were stratified by previous immune-checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) status to receive nivolumab 240 mg intravenously every 2 weeks plus ipilimumab 1 mg/kg intravenously every 6 weeks (group A) or the same schedule of combined nivolumab and ipilimumab with the addition of SBRT to at least one tumour site (24 Gy in three fractions at week 2; group B). Patients had to have at least two measurable sites of disease so one non-irradiated site could be followed for response. The primary endpoint was objective response rate (ORR) in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of combined nivolumab and ipilimumab. ORR was defined as the proportion of patients with a complete response or partial response per immune-related Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours. Response was assessed every 12 weeks. Safety was assessed in all patients. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03071406. FINDINGS: 50 patients (25 in both group A and group B) were enrolled between March 14, 2017, and Dec 21, 2021, including 24 ICI-naive patients (13 [52%] of 25 group A patients and 11 [44%] of 25 group B patients]) and 26 patients with previous ICI (12 [48%] of 25 group A patients and 14 [56%] of 25 group B patients]). One patient in group B did not receive SBRT due to concerns about excess toxicity. Median follow-up was 14·6 months (IQR 9·1-26·5). Two patients in group B were excluded from the analysis of the primary endpoint because the target lesions were irradiated and so the patients were deemed non-evaluable. Of the ICI-naive patients, 22 (100%) of 22 (95% CI 82-100) had an objective response, including nine (41% [95% CI 21-63]) with complete response. Of the patients who had previously had ICI exposure, eight (31%) of 26 patients (95% CI 15-52) had an objective response and four (15% [5-36]) had a complete response. No significant differences in ORR were observed between groups A (18 [72%] of 25 patients) and B (12 [52%] of 23 patients; p=0·26). Grade 3 or 4 treatment-related adverse events were observed in 10 (40%) of 25 patients in group A and 8 (32%) of 25 patients in group B. INTERPRETATION: First-line combined nivolumab and ipilimumab in patients with advanced Merkel cell carcinoma showed a high ORR with durable responses and an expected safety profile. Combined nivolumab and ipilimumab also showed clinical benefit in patients with previous anti-PD-1 and PD-L1 treatment. Addition of SBRT did not improve efficacy of combined nivolumab and ipilimumab. The combination of nivolumab and ipilimumab represents a new first-line and salvage therapeutic option for advanced Merkel cell carcinoma. FUNDING: Bristol Myers Squibb Rare Population Malignancy Program.

Modelling Radiation Cancer Treatment with a Death-Rate Term in Ordinary and Fractional Differential Equations.

Fractional calculus has recently been applied to the mathematical modelling of tumour growth, but its use introduces complexities that may not be warranted. Mathematical modelling with differential equations is a standard approach to study and predict treatment outcomes for population-level and patient-specific responses. Here, we use patient data of radiation-treated tumours to discuss the benefits and limitations of introducing fractional derivatives into three standard models of tumour growth. The fractional derivative introduces a history-dependence into the growth function, which requires a continuous death-rate term for radiation treatment. This newly proposed radiation-induced death-rate term improves computational efficiency in both ordinary and fractional derivative models. This computational speed-up will benefit common simulation tasks such as model parameterization and the construction and running of virtual clinical trials.

A head and neck treatment planning strategy for a CBCT-guided ring-gantry online adaptive radiotherapy system.

PURPOSE: A planning strategy was developed and the utility of online-adaptation with the Ethos CBCT-guided ring-gantry adaptive radiotherapy (ART) system was evaluated using retrospective data from Head-and-neck (H&N) patients that required clinical offline adaptation during treatment. METHODS: Clinical data were used to re-plan 20 H&N patients (10 sequential boost (SEQ) with separate base and boost plans plus 10 simultaneous integrated boost (SIB)). An optimal approach, robust to online adaptation, for Ethos-initial plans using clinical goal prioritization was developed. Anatomically-derived isodose-shaping helper structures, air-density override, goals for controlling hotspot location(s), and plan normalization were investigated. Online adaptation was simulated using clinical offline adaptive simulation-CTs to represent an on-treatment CBCT. Dosimetric comparisons were based on institutional guidelines for Clinical-initial versus Ethos-initial plans and Ethos-scheduled versus Ethos-adapted plans. Timing for five components of the online adaptive workflow was analyzed. RESULTS: The Ethos H&N planning approach generated Ethos-initial SEQ plans with clinically comparable PTV coverage (average PTVHigh V100%  = 98.3%, Dmin,0.03cc  = 97.9% and D0.03cc  = 105.5%) and OAR sparing. However, Ethos-initial SIB plans were clinically inferior (average PTVHigh V100%  = 96.4%, Dmin,0.03cc  = 93.7%, D0.03cc  = 110.6%). Fixed-field IMRT was superior to VMAT for 93.3% of plans. Online adaptation succeeded in achieving conformal coverage to the new anatomy in both SEQ and SIB plans that was even superior to that achieved in the initial plans (which was due to the changes in anatomy that simplified the optimization). The average adaptive workflow duration for SIB, SEQ base and SEQ boost was 30:14, 22.56, and 14:03 (min: sec), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With an optimal planning approach, Ethos efficiently auto-generated dosimetrically comparable and clinically acceptable initial SEQ plans for H&N patients. Initial SIB plans were inferior and clinically unacceptable, but adapted SIB plans became clinically acceptable. Online adapted plans optimized dose to new anatomy and maintained target coverage/homogeneity with improved OAR sparing in a time-efficient manner.

NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Head and Neck Cancers, Version 1.2022.

The NCCN Guidelines for Head and Neck Cancers address tumors arising in the oral cavity (including mucosal lip), pharynx, larynx, and paranasal sinuses. Occult primary cancer, salivary gland cancer, and mucosal melanoma (MM) are also addressed. The specific site of disease, stage, and pathologic findings guide treatment (eg, the appropriate surgical procedure, radiation targets, dose and fractionation of radiation, indications for systemic therapy). The NCCN Head and Neck Cancers Panel meets at least annually to review comments from reviewers within their institutions, examine relevant new data from publications and abstracts, and reevaluate and update their recommendations. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize the panel's most recent recommendations regarding management of HPV-positive oropharynx cancer and ongoing research in this area.

Maintaining dosimetric quality when switching to a Monte Carlo dose engine for head and neck volumetric-modulated arc therapy planning.

Head and neck cancers present challenges in radiation treatment planning due to the large number of critical structures near the target(s) and highly heterogeneous tissue composition. While Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations currently offer the most accurate approximation of dose deposition in tissue, the switch to MC presents challenges in preserving the parameters of care. The differences in dose-to-tissue were widely discussed in the literature, but mostly in the context of recalculating the existing plans rather than reoptimizing with the MC dose engine. Also, the target dose homogeneity received less attention. We adhere to strict dose homogeneity objectives in clinical practice. In this study, we started with 21 clinical volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans previously developed in Pinnacle treatment planning system. Those plans were recalculated "as is" with RayStation (RS) MC algorithm and then reoptimized in RS with both collapsed cone (CC) and MC algorithms. MC statistical uncertainty (0.3%) was selected carefully to balance the dose computation time (1-2 min) with the planning target volume (PTV) dose-volume histogram (DVH) shape approaching that of a "noise-free" calculation. When the hot spot in head and neck MC-based treatment planning is defined as dose to 0.03 cc, it is exceedingly difficult to limit it to 105% of the prescription dose, as we were used to with the CC algorithm. The average hot spot after optimization and calculation with RS MC was statistically significantly higher compared to Pinnacle and RS CC algorithms by 1.2 and 1.0 %, respectively. The 95% confidence interval (CI) observed in this study suggests that in most cases a hot spot of ≤107% is achievable. Compared to the 95% CI for the previous clinical plans recalculated with RS MC "as is" (upper limit 108%), in real terms this result is at least as good or better than the historic plans.

Methylation of HPV 16 and EPB41L3 in oral gargles: Associations with oropharyngeal cancer detection and tumor characteristics.

Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is increasing significantly among men and often requires intensive therapy causing significant morbidity. Early detection of OPC is needed, when monotherapy can be safely delivered with less treatment-associated morbidity, while maintaining high cure rates. We conducted a study of 101 pretreatment male OPC cases matched 1:1 to 101 disease-free controls for age and smoking history. Oral gargles were collected from cases and controls with additional biopsies or aspirates from cases. The HPV SPF10 -LiPA25 PCR assay was utilized for HPV genotyping. Methylation of three CpG sites (438, 427 and 425) in the EPB41L3 gene and methylation status of the L1 (6,367, 6,389), L2 (4,257, 4,262, 4,266, 4,269, 4,275, 4,282) and E2 (3,412, 3,415, 3,417, 3,433, 3,436) CpG sites of HPV 16 positive specimens was assessed by pyrosequencing. Significant correlations were observed between tumor and oral specimens for all methylation biomarkers (p < 0.01). EPB41L3 and HPV 16 L1, L2 and E2 methylation were significantly (p < 0.0001) higher among cases than controls, regardless of early vs. late disease. When HPV 16 genes and EPB41L3 methylation status were combined in a logistic regression analysis, a sensitivity of 70.3% and a specificity of 90.9% were observed for the detection of OPC from an oral gargle. Our data suggest that methylation biomarkers measured in oral gargles may have utility in identifying OPC early. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to inform additional biomarkers that can maximize specificity and sensitivity for early OPC detection.

Head and Neck Cancers, Version 2.2020, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology.

Treatment is complex for patients with head and neck (H&N) cancers with specific site of disease, stage, and pathologic findings guiding treatment decision-making. Treatment planning for H&N cancers involves a multidisciplinary team of experts. This article describes supportive care recommendations in the NCCN Guidelines for Head and Neck Cancers, as well as the rationale supporting a new section on imaging recommendations for patients with H&N cancers. This article also describes updates to treatment recommendations for patients with very advanced H&N cancers and salivary gland tumors, specifically systemic therapy recommendations.

The 2019 mathematical oncology roadmap.

Whether the nom de guerre is Mathematical Oncology, Computational or Systems Biology, Theoretical Biology, Evolutionary Oncology, Bioinformatics, or simply Basic Science, there is no denying that mathematics continues to play an increasingly prominent role in cancer research. Mathematical Oncology-defined here simply as the use of mathematics in cancer research-complements and overlaps with a number of other fields that rely on mathematics as a core methodology. As a result, Mathematical Oncology has a broad scope, ranging from theoretical studies to clinical trials designed with mathematical models. This Roadmap differentiates Mathematical Oncology from related fields and demonstrates specific areas of focus within this unique field of research. The dominant theme of this Roadmap is the personalization of medicine through mathematics, modelling, and simulation. This is achieved through the use of patient-specific clinical data to: develop individualized screening strategies to detect cancer earlier; make predictions of response to therapy; design adaptive, patient-specific treatment plans to overcome therapy resistance; and establish domain-specific standards to share model predictions and to make models and simulations reproducible. The cover art for this Roadmap was chosen as an apt metaphor for the beautiful, strange, and evolving relationship between mathematics and cancer.

Challenges With the 8th Edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual for Breast, Testicular, and Head and Neck Cancers.

Three experts discussed changes in the 8th edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual and challenges regarding these changes for staging of breast cancer, testicular cancer, and head and neck cancer, respectively. In general, the staging changes for breast cancer and for human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer were hailed as improvements, but the changes for testicular cancer were questioned as to their clinical relevance. Better studies are needed to improve staging for human papillomavirus-negative oropharyngeal cancer.

NCCN Guidelines Insights: Head and Neck Cancers, Version 1.2018.

The NCCN Guidelines for Head and Neck (H&N) Cancers provide treatment recommendations for cancers of the lip, oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, ethmoid and maxillary sinuses, and salivary glands. Recommendations are also provided for occult primary of the H&N, and separate algorithms have been developed by the panel for very advanced H&N cancers. These NCCN Guidelines Insights summarize the panel's discussion and most recent recommendations regarding evaluation and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Predicting Patient-Specific Radiotherapy Protocols Based on Mathematical Model Choice for Proliferation Saturation Index.

Radiation is commonly used in cancer treatment. Over 50% of all cancer patients will undergo radiotherapy (RT) as part of cancer care. Scientific advances in RT have primarily focused on the physical characteristics of treatment including beam quality and delivery. Only recently have inroads been made into utilizing tumor biology and radiobiology to design more appropriate RT protocols. Tumors are composites of proliferating and growth-arrested cells, and overall response depends on their respective proportions at irradiation. Prokopiou et al. (Radiat Oncol 10:159, 2015) developed the concept of the proliferation saturation index (PSI) to augment the clinical decision process associated with RT. This framework is based on the application of the logistic equation to pre-treatment imaging data in order to estimate a patient-specific tumor carrying capacity, which is then used to recommend a specific RT protocol. It is unclear, however, how dependent clinical recommendations are on the underlying tumor growth law. We discuss a PSI framework with a generalized logistic equation that can capture kinetics of different well-known growth laws including logistic and Gompertzian growth. Estimation of model parameters on the basis of clinical data revealed that the generalized logistic model can describe data equally well for a wide range of the generalized logistic exponent value. Clinical recommendations based on the calculated PSI, however, are strongly dependent on the specific growth law assumed. Our analysis suggests that the PSI framework may best be utilized in clinical practice when the underlying tumor growth law is known, or when sufficiently many tumor growth models suggest similar fractionation protocols.

Practical quantification of image registration accuracy following the AAPM TG-132 report framework.

The AAPM TG 132 Report enumerates important steps for validation of the medical image registration process. While the Report outlines the general goals and criteria for the tests, specific implementation may be obscure to the wider clinical audience. We endeavored to provide a detailed step-by-step description of the quantitative tests' execution, applied as an example to a commercial software package (Mirada Medical, Oxford, UK), while striving for simplicity and utilization of readily available software. We demonstrated how the rigid registration data could be easily extracted from the DICOM registration object and used, following some simple matrix math, to quantify accuracy of rigid translations and rotations. The options for validating deformable image registration (DIR) were enumerated, and it was shown that the most practically viable ones are comparison of propagated internal landmark points on the published datasets, or of segmented contours that can be generated locally. The multimodal rigid registration in our example did not always result in the desired registration error below ½ voxel size, but was considered acceptable with the maximum errors under 1.3 mm and 1°. The DIR target registration errors in the thorax based on internal landmarks were far in excess of the Report recommendations of 2 mm average and 5 mm maximum. On the other hand, evaluation of the DIR major organs' contours propagation demonstrated good agreement for lung and abdomen (Dice Similarity Coefficients, DSC, averaged over all cases and structures of 0.92 ± 0.05 and 0.91 ± 0.06, respectively), and fair agreement for Head and Neck (average DSC = 0.73 ± 0.14). The average for head and neck is reduced by small volume structures such as pharyngeal constrictor muscles. Even these relatively simple tests show that commercial registration algorithms cannot be automatically assumed sufficiently accurate for all applications. Formalized task-specific accuracy quantification should be expected from the vendors.

The future of personalised radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

Radiotherapy has long been the mainstay of treatment for patients with head and neck cancer and has traditionally involved a stage-dependent strategy whereby all patients with the same TNM stage receive the same therapy. We believe there is a substantial opportunity to improve radiotherapy delivery beyond just technological and anatomical precision. In this Series paper, we explore several new ideas that could improve understanding of the phenotypic and genotypic differences that exist between patients and their tumours. We discuss how exploiting these differences and taking advantage of precision medicine tools-such as genomics, radiomics, and mathematical modelling-could open new doors to personalised radiotherapy adaptation and treatment. We propose a new treatment shift that moves away from an era of empirical dosing and fractionation to an era focused on the development of evidence to guide personalisation and biological adaptation of radiotherapy. We believe these approaches offer the potential to improve outcomes and reduce toxicity.

A genome-based model for adjusting radiotherapy dose (GARD): a retrospective, cohort-based study.

BACKGROUND: Despite its common use in cancer treatment, radiotherapy has not yet entered the era of precision medicine, and there have been no approaches to adjust dose based on biological differences between or within tumours. We aimed to assess whether a patient-specific molecular signature of radiation sensitivity could be used to identify the optimum radiotherapy dose. METHODS: We used the gene-expression-based radiation-sensitivity index and the linear quadratic model to derive the genomic-adjusted radiation dose (GARD). A high GARD value predicts for high therapeutic effect for radiotherapy; which we postulate would relate to clinical outcome. Using data from the prospective, observational Total Cancer Care (TCC) protocol, we calculated GARD for primary tumours from 20 disease sites treated using standard radiotherapy doses for each disease type. We also used multivariable Cox modelling to assess whether GARD was independently associated with clinical outcome in five clinical cohorts: Erasmus Breast Cancer Cohort (n=263); Karolinska Breast Cancer Cohort (n=77); Moffitt Lung Cancer Cohort (n=60); Moffitt Pancreas Cancer Cohort (n=40); and The Cancer Genome Atlas Glioblastoma Patient Cohort (n=98). FINDINGS: We calculated GARD for 8271 tissue samples from the TCC cohort. There was a wide range of GARD values (range 1·66-172·4) across the TCC cohort despite assignment of uniform radiotherapy doses within disease types. Median GARD values were lowest for gliomas and sarcomas and highest for cervical cancer and oropharyngeal head and neck cancer. There was a wide range of GARD values within tumour type groups. GARD independently predicted clinical outcome in breast cancer, lung cancer, glioblastoma, and pancreatic cancer. In the Erasmus Breast Cancer Cohort, 5-year distant-metastasis-free survival was longer in patients with high GARD values than in those with low GARD values (hazard ratio 2·11, 95% 1·13-3·94, p=0·018). INTERPRETATION: A GARD-based clinical model could allow the individualisation of radiotherapy dose to tumour radiosensitivity and could provide a framework to design genomically-guided clinical trials in radiation oncology. FUNDING: None.

Regional Radiation Therapy Impacts Outcome for Node-Positive Cutaneous Melanoma.

Background: Regional radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to reduce the risk of regional recurrence with node-positive cutaneous melanoma. However, risk factors for regional recurrence, especially in the era of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), are less clear. Our goals were to identify risk factors associated with regional recurrence and to determine whether a radiosensitivity index (RSI) gene expression signature (GES) could identify patients who experience a survival benefit with regional RT. Methods: A single-institution, Institutional Review Board-approved study was performed including 410 patients treated with either SLNB with or without completion lymph node dissection (LND; n=270) or therapeutic LND (n=91). Postoperative regional RT was delivered to the involved nodal basin in 83 cases (20.2%), to a median dose of 54 Gy (range, 30-60 Gy) in 27 fractions (range, 5-30). Primary outcomes were regional control and overall survival by RSI GES status. Results: Median follow-up was 69 months (range, 13-180). Postoperative regional RT was associated with a reduced risk of regional recurrence among all patients on univariate (5-year estimate: 95.0% vs 83.3%; P=.036) and multivariate analysis (hazard ratio[HR], 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05-0.43; P<.001). Among higher-risk subgroups, regional RT was associated with a lower risk of regional recurrence among patients with clinically detected lymph nodes (n=175; 5-year regional control: 94.1% vs 69.5%; P=.003) and extracapsular extension (ECE) present (n=138; 5-year regional control: 96.7% vs 62.2%; P<.001). Among a subset of radiated patients with gene expression data available, a low RSI GES (radiosensitive) tumor status was associated with improved survival compared with a high RSI GES (5-year: 75% vs 0%; HR, 10.68; 95% CI, 1.24-92.14). Conclusions: Regional RT was associated with a reduced risk of regional recurrence among patients with ECE and clinically detected nodal disease. Gene expression data show promise for better predicting radiocurable patients in the future. In the era of increasingly effective systemic therapies, the value of improved regional control potentially takes on greater significance.