Addressing Noise and Estimating Uncertainty in Biomedical Data through the Exploration of Chemical Space.

Noise is a basic ingredient in data, since observed data are always contaminated by unwanted deviations, i.e., noise, which, in the case of overdetermined systems (with more data than model parameters), cause the corresponding linear system of equations to have an imperfect solution. In addition, in the case of highly underdetermined parameterization, noise can be absorbed by the model, generating spurious solutions. This is a very undesirable situation that might lead to incorrect conclusions. We presented mathematical formalism based on the inverse problem theory combined with artificial intelligence methodologies to perform an enhanced sampling of noisy biomedical data to improve the finding of meaningful solutions. Random sampling methods fail for high-dimensional biomedical problems. Sampling methods such as smart model parameterizations, forward surrogates, and parallel computing are better suited for such problems. We applied these methods to several important biomedical problems, such as phenotype prediction and a problem related to predicting the effects of protein mutations, i.e., if a given single residue mutation is neutral or deleterious, causing a disease. We also applied these methods to de novo drug discovery and drug repositioning (repurposing) through the enhanced exploration of huge chemical space. The purpose of these novel methods that address the problem of noise and uncertainty in biomedical data is to find new therapeutic solutions, perform drug repurposing, and accelerate and optimize drug discovery, thus reestablishing homeostasis. Finding the right target, the right compound, and the right patient are the three bottlenecks to running successful clinical trials from the correct analysis of preclinical models. Artificial intelligence can provide a solution to these problems, considering that the character of the data restricts the quality of the prediction, as in any modeling procedure in data analysis. The use of simple and plain methodologies is crucial to tackling these important and challenging problems, particularly drug repositioning/repurposing in rare diseases.

Innovations in Genomics and Big Data Analytics for Personalized Medicine and Health Care: A Review.

Big data in health care is a fast-growing field and a new paradigm that is transforming case-based studies to large-scale, data-driven research. As big data is dependent on the advancement of new data standards, technology, and relevant research, the future development of big data applications holds foreseeable promise in the modern day health care revolution. Enormously large, rapidly growing collections of biomedical omics-data (genomics, proteomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics, glycomics, etc.) and clinical data create major challenges and opportunities for their analysis and interpretation and open new computational gateways to address these issues. The design of new robust algorithms that are most suitable to properly analyze this big data by taking into account individual variability in genes has enabled the creation of precision (personalized) medicine. We reviewed and highlighted the significance of big data analytics for personalized medicine and health care by focusing mostly on machine learning perspectives on personalized medicine, genomic data models with respect to personalized medicine, the application of data mining algorithms for personalized medicine as well as the challenges we are facing right now in big data analytics.

Robust pathway sampling in phenotype prediction. Application to triple negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Phenotype prediction problems are usually considered ill-posed, as the amount of samples is very limited with respect to the scrutinized genetic probes. This fact complicates the sampling of the defective genetic pathways due to the high number of possible discriminatory genetic networks involved. In this research, we outline three novel sampling algorithms utilized to identify, classify and characterize the defective pathways in phenotype prediction problems, such as the Fisher's ratio sampler, the Holdout sampler and the Random sampler, and apply each one to the analysis of genetic pathways involved in tumor behavior and outcomes of triple negative breast cancers (TNBC). Altered biological pathways are identified using the most frequently sampled genes and are compared to those obtained via Bayesian Networks (BNs). RESULTS: Random, Fisher's ratio and Holdout samplers were more accurate and robust than BNs, while providing comparable insights about disease genomics. CONCLUSIONS: The three samplers tested are good alternatives to Bayesian Networks since they are less computationally demanding algorithms. Importantly, this analysis confirms the concept of "biological invariance" since the altered pathways should be independent of the sampling methodology and the classifier used for their inference. Nevertheless, still some modifications are needed in the Bayesian networks to be able to sample correctly the uncertainty space in phenotype prediction problems, since the probabilistic parameterization of the uncertainty space is not unique and the use of the optimum network might falsify the pathways analysis.

MMP11 expression in intratumoral inflammatory cells in breast cancer.

AIMS: It is known that matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-11 has a role in tumour development and progression, and also that immune cells can influence cancer cells to increase their proliferative and invasive properties. The aim of the present study was to propose the evaluation of MMP11 expression by intratumoral mononuclear inflammatory cells (MICs) as a useful biological marker for breast cancer prognosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study comprised 246 women with invasive breast carcinoma, and a long follow-up period. Patients were stratified with regard to nodal status and to the development of metastatic disease. The median follow-up period in patients without metastasis was 146 months and in patients with metastatic disease 31 months. MMP11 was determined by immunohistochemistry. For relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) analysis we used the Cox's univariate method. Cox's regression model was used to examine the interactions between different prognostic factors in a multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that MMP11 expression by stromal cells was significantly associated with prognosis. MMP11 expression by cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) was associated with both shortened RFS and OS, but MMP11 expression by MICs showed a stronger association with both shortened RFS and OS, therefore being the most potent and independent factor to predict RFS and OS.

Robust Sampling of Defective Pathways in Multiple Myeloma.

We present the analysis of defective pathways in multiple myeloma (MM) using two recently developed sampling algorithms of the biological pathways: The Fisher's ratio sampler, and the holdout sampler. We performed the retrospective analyses of different gene expression datasets concerning different aspects of the disease, such as the existing difference between bone marrow stromal cells in MM and healthy controls (HC), the gene expression profiling of CD34+ cells in MM and HC, the difference between hyperdiploid and non-hyperdiploid myelomas, and the prediction of the chromosome 13 deletion, to provide a deeper insight into the molecular mechanisms involved in the disease. Our analysis has shown the importance of different altered pathways related to glycosylation, infectious disease, immune system response, different aspects of metabolism, DNA repair, protein recycling and regulation of the transcription of genes involved in the differentiation of myeloid cells. The main difference in genetic pathways between hyperdiploid and non-hyperdiploid myelomas are related to infectious disease, immune system response and protein recycling. Our work provides new insights on the genetic pathways involved in this complex disease and proposes novel targets for future therapies.

Particle Swarm Optimization and Uncertainty Assessment in Inverse Problems.

Most inverse problems in the industry (and particularly in geophysical exploration) are highly underdetermined because the number of model parameters too high to achieve accurate data predictions and because the sampling of the data space is scarce and incomplete; it is always affected by different kinds of noise. Additionally, the physics of the forward problem is a simplification of the reality. All these facts result in that the inverse problem solution is not unique; that is, there are different inverse solutions (called equivalent), compatible with the prior information that fits the observed data within similar error bounds. In the case of nonlinear inverse problems, these equivalent models are located in disconnected flat curvilinear valleys of the cost-function topography. The uncertainty analysis consists of obtaining a representation of this complex topography via different sampling methodologies. In this paper, we focus on the use of a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to sample the region of equivalence in nonlinear inverse problems. Although this methodology has a general purpose, we show its application for the uncertainty assessment of the solution of a geophysical problem concerning gravity inversion in sedimentary basins, showing that it is possible to efficiently perform this task in a sampling-while-optimizing mode. Particularly, we explain how to use and analyze the geophysical models sampled by exploratory PSO family members to infer different descriptors of nonlinear uncertainty.

Predictive Mathematical Models of the Short-Term and Long-Term Growth of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The prediction of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and the corresponding needs of the health care system (COVID-19 patients' admissions, the number of critically ill patients, need for intensive care units, etc.) is based on the combination of a limited growth model (Verhulst model) and a short-term predictive model that allows predictions to be made for the following day. In both cases, the uncertainty analysis of the prediction is performed, i.e., the set of equivalent models that adjust the historical data with the same accuracy. This set of models provides the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive model that adjusts the historical series. It can be extrapolated to the same analyzed time series (e.g., the number of infected individuals per day) or to another time series of interest to which it is correlated and used, e.g., to predict the number of patients admitted to urgent care units, the number of critically ill patients, or the total number of admissions, which are directly related to health needs. These models can be regionalized, that is, the predictions can be made at the local level if data are disaggregated. We show that the Verhulst and the Gompertz models provide similar results and can be also used to monitor and predict new outbreaks. However, the Verhulst model seems to be easier to interpret and to use.

On the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Genomics to Enhance Precision Medicine.

The complexity of orphan diseases, which are those that do not have an effective treatment, together with the high dimensionality of the genetic data used for their analysis and the high degree of uncertainty in the understanding of the mechanisms and genetic pathways which are involved in their development, motivate the use of advanced techniques of artificial intelligence and in-depth knowledge of molecular biology, which is crucial in order to find plausible solutions in drug design, including drug repositioning. Particularly, we show that the use of robust deep sampling methodologies of the altered genetics serves to obtain meaningful results and dramatically decreases the cost of research and development in drug design, influencing very positively the use of precision medicine and the outcomes in patients. The target-centric approach and the use of strong prior hypotheses that are not matched against reality (disease genetic data) are undoubtedly the cause of the high number of drug design failures and attrition rates. Sampling and prediction under uncertain conditions cannot be avoided in the development of precision medicine.

Prognostic networks for unraveling the biological mechanisms of Sarcopenia.

Sarcopenia is an age-related multifactorial process that involved several biological mechanisms, whose specific contribution and interplay is still unknown. The present study proposes prognostic networks based on machine learning approaches to unravel the interplay among those biological mechanisms mainly involved in the development of Sarcopenia. After analyzing 114 biological and clinical variables in adults older than 70 years, and using all the biological prognostic networks detected by machine learning with accuracy higher than 82%, we designed a consensus classifier based on majority vote that improve the predictive accuracy of Sarcopenia up to 91%. Additionally, we applied logistic regression analysis to propose the interplay among the most discriminative biological variables of Sarcopenia: anthropometry, body composition, functional performance of lower limbs, systemic oxidative stress, presence of depression and medication for the digestive system based on proton-pump inhibitors. Our data also demonstrate that besides a loss of muscle mass, impairments on functional performance of lower limbs are more relevant for develop Sarcopenia than those affecting the muscle strength.

Principal component analysis in protein tertiary structure prediction.

We discuss applicability of principal component analysis (PCA) for protein tertiary structure prediction from amino acid sequence. The algorithm presented in this paper belongs to the category of protein refinement models and involves establishing a low-dimensional space where the sampling (and optimization) is carried out via particle swarm optimizer (PSO). The reduced space is found via PCA performed for a set of low-energy protein models previously found using different optimization techniques. A high frequency term is added into this expansion by projecting the best decoy into the PCA basis set and calculating the residual model. This term is aimed at providing high frequency details in the energy optimization. The goal of this research is to analyze how the dimensionality reduction affects the prediction capability of the PSO procedure. For that purpose, different proteins from the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction experiments were modeled. In all the cases, both the energy of the best decoy and the distance to the native structure have decreased. Our analysis also shows how the predicted backbone structure of native conformation and of alternative low energy states varies with respect to the PCA dimensionality. Generally speaking, the reconstruction can be successfully achieved with 10 principal components and the high frequency term. We also provide a computational analysis of protein energy landscape for the inverse problem of reconstructing structure from the reduced number of principal components, showing that the dimensionality reduction alleviates the ill-posed character of this high-dimensional energy optimization problem. The procedure explained in this paper is very fast and allows testing different PCA expansions. Our results show that PSO improves the energy of the best decoy used in the PCA when the adequate number of PCA terms is considered.

Genomic risk prediction of aromatase inhibitor-related arthralgia in patients with breast cancer using a novel machine-learning algorithm.

Many breast cancer (BC) patients treated with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) develop aromatase inhibitor-related arthralgia (AIA). Candidate gene studies to identify AIA risk are limited in scope. We evaluated the potential of a novel analytic algorithm (NAA) to predict AIA using germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) data obtained before treatment initiation. Systematic chart review of 700 AI-treated patients with stage I-III BC identified asymptomatic patients (n = 39) and those with clinically significant AIA resulting in AI termination or therapy switch (n = 123). Germline DNA was obtained and SNP genotyping performed using the Affymetrix UK BioBank Axiom Array to yield 695,277 SNPs. SNP clusters that most closely defined AIA risk were discovered using an NAA that sequentially combined statistical filtering and a machine-learning algorithm. NCBI PhenGenI and Ensemble databases defined gene attribution of the most discriminating SNPs. Phenotype, pathway, and ontologic analyses assessed functional and mechanistic validity. Demographics were similar in cases and controls. A cluster of 70 SNPs, correlating to 57 genes, was identified. This SNP group predicted AIA occurrence with a maximum accuracy of 75.93%. Strong associations with arthralgia, breast cancer, and estrogen phenotypes were seen in 19/57 genes (33%) and were functionally consistent. Using a NAA, we identified a 70 SNP cluster that predicted AIA risk with fair accuracy. Phenotype, functional, and pathway analysis of attributed genes was consistent with clinical phenotypes. This study is the first to link a specific SNP/gene cluster to AIA risk independent of candidate gene bias.