Characteristics of State Policies Impact Health Care Delivery: An Analysis of Mammographic Dense Breast Notification and Insurance Legislation.

BACKGROUND: Increased breast tissue density may mask cancer and thus decrease the diagnostic sensitivity of mammography. A patient group advocacy led to the implementation of laws to increase the awareness of breast tissue density and to improve access to supplemental imaging in many states. Given limited evidence about best practices, variation exists in several characteristics of adopted policies. OBJECTIVE: To identify which characteristics of state-level policies with regard to dense breast tissue were associated with increased use of downstream breast ultrasound. RESEARCH DESIGN: This was a retrospective series of monthly cross-sections of screening mammography procedures before and after implementation of laws. SUBJECTS: A sample of 13,481,554 screening mammography procedures extracted from the MarketScan Research database performed between 2007 and 2014 on privately insured women aged 40-64 years that resided in a state that had implemented relevant legislation during that period. MEASURES: The outcome was an indicator of whether breast ultrasound imaging followed a screening mammography procedure within 30 days. The main independent variables were policy characteristics indicators. RESULTS: Notification of patients about issues surrounding increased breast density was associated with increased follow-up by ultrasound by 1.02 percentage points (P=0.016). Some policy characteristics such as the explicit suggestion of supplemental imaging or mandated coverage of supplemental imaging by health insurance augmented that effect. Other policy characteristics moderated the effect. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneous effect of state legislation with regard to dense breast tissue on screening mammography follow-up by ultrasound may be explained by specific and unique characteristics of the approaches taken by a variety of states.

Effect of Right-Sided Versus Left-Sided Contrast Injection on Intra-arterial Opacification Characteristics of Head and Neck Computed Tomography Angiograms and Interactions With Patient Sex, Weight, and Cardiac Output.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to support the standard clinical assumption that preferential right-sided injection (RSI) over left-sided injection (LSI) results in improved head and neck computed tomography angiograms and to determine which patients most benefit from RSIs. METHODS: Head and neck computed tomography angiograms of 453 RSIs and 419 LSIs were included. Interactions between injection side, age, weight, body mass index, and left ventricular ejection fraction with mean vessel Hounsfield units (HU) were compared. Statistical analysis was performed using 2-tailed Student t tests, Mann-Whitney U tests, and simple linear (SL) and multiple linear regressions. RESULTS: Right-sided injection yielded higher HU for patients older than 40 years (eg, RSI of the right common carotid artery [RCCA] vs LSI of the RCCA; P < 0.01). Body mass index (eg, RCCA; r = -0.31, P < 0.01 [SL]) and weight (eg, RCCA; r = -0.39, P < 0.01 [SL]) were negatively correlated with HU. Female had higher HU (mean ± SE, +39.7 ± 7.6 HU; P < 0.01 [multiple linear]). Left ventricular ejection fraction had no interactions with injection side or HU. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support preferential RSI in patients older than 40 years with higher body mass index and weight, particularly male.

A probability metric for identifying high-performing facilities: an application for pay-for-performance programs.

BACKGROUND: Two approaches are commonly used for identifying high-performing facilities on a performance measure: one, that the facility is in a top quantile (eg, quintile or quartile); and two, that a confidence interval is below (or above) the average of the measure for all facilities. This type of yes/no designation often does not do well in distinguishing high-performing from average-performing facilities. OBJECTIVE: To illustrate an alternative continuous-valued metric for profiling facilities--the probability a facility is in a top quantile--and show the implications of using this metric for profiling and pay-for-performance. METHODS: We created a composite measure of quality from fiscal year 2007 data based on 28 quality indicators from 112 Veterans Health Administration nursing homes. A Bayesian hierarchical multivariate normal-binomial model was used to estimate shrunken rates of the 28 quality indicators, which were combined into a composite measure using opportunity-based weights. Rates were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods as implemented in WinBUGS. The probability metric was calculated from the simulation replications. RESULTS: Our probability metric allowed better discrimination of high performers than the point or interval estimate of the composite score. In a pay-for-performance program, a smaller top quantile (eg, a quintile) resulted in more resources being allocated to the highest performers, whereas a larger top quantile (eg, being above the median) distinguished less among high performers and allocated more resources to average performers. CONCLUSION: The probability metric has potential but needs to be evaluated by stakeholders in different types of delivery systems.

Suicide risk in Veterans Health Administration patients with mental health diagnoses initiating lithium or valproate: a historical prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lithium has been reported in some, but not all, studies to be associated with reduced risks of suicide death or suicidal behavior. The objective of this nonrandomized cohort study was to examine whether lithium was associated with reduced risk of suicide death in comparison to the commonly-used alternative treatment, valproate. METHODS: A propensity score-matched cohort study was conducted of Veterans Health Administration patients (n=21,194/treatment) initiating lithium or valproate from 1999-2008. RESULTS: Matching produced lithium and valproate treatment groups that were highly similar in all 934 propensity score covariates, including indicators of recent suicidal behavior, but recent suicidal ideation was not able to be included. In the few individuals with recently diagnosed suicidal ideation, a significant imbalance existed with suicidal ideation more prevalent at baseline among individuals initiating lithium than valproate (odds ratio (OR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.09, 1.54; p=0.003). No significant differences in suicide death were observed over 0-365 days in A) the primary intent-to-treat analysis (lithium/valproate conditional odds ratio (cOR) 1.22, 95% CI 0.82, 1.81; p=0.32); B) during receipt of initial lithium or valproate treatment (cOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.46, 1.61; p=0.63); or C) after such treatment had been discontinued/modified (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.91, 2.50; p=0.11). Significantly increased risks of suicide death were observed after the discontinuation/modification of lithium, compared to valproate, treatment over the first 180 days (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.21, 6.11; p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In this somewhat distinct sample (a predominantly male Veteran sample with a broad range of psychiatric diagnoses), no significant differences in associations with suicide death were observed between lithium and valproate treatment over 365 days. The only significant difference was observed over 0-180 days: an increased risk of suicide death, among individuals discontinuing or modifying lithium, compared to valproate, treatment. This difference could reflect risks either related to lithium discontinuation or higher baseline risks among lithium recipients (i.e., confounding) that became more evident when treatment stopped. Our findings therefore support educating patients and providers about possible suicide-related risks of discontinuing lithium even shortly after treatment initiation, and the close monitoring of patients after lithium discontinuation, if feasible. If our findings include residual confounding biasing against lithium, however, as suggested by the differences observed in diagnosed suicidal ideation, then the degree of beneficial reduction in suicide death risk associated with active lithium treatment would be underestimated. Further research is urgently needed, given the lack of interventions against suicide and the uncertainties concerning the degree to which lithium may reduce suicide risk during active treatment, increase risk upon discontinuation, or both.

Person-centered care practices and quality in Department of Veterans Affairs nursing homes: is there a relationship?

OBJECTIVE: To examine variation in culture change to a person-centered care (PCC) model, and the association between culture change and a composite measure of quality in 107 Department of Veterans Affairs nursing homes. METHODS: We examined the relationship between a composite quality measure calculated from 24 quality indicators (QIs) from the Minimum Data Set (that measure unfavorable events), and PCC summary scores calculated from the 6 domains of the Artifact of Culture Change Tool, using 3 different methods of calculating the summary scores. We also use a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze the relationship between a latent construct measuring extent of culture change and the composite quality measure. RESULTS: Using the original Artifacts scores, the highest performing facility has a 2.9 times higher score than the lowest. There is a statistically significant relationship between the composite quality measure and each of the 3 summary Artifacts scores. Depending on whether original scores, standardized scores, or optimal scores are used, a facility at the 10th percentile in terms of culture change compared with one at the 90th percentile has 8.0%, 8.9%, or 10.3% more QI events. When PCC implementation is considered as a latent construct, 18 low performance PCC facilities have, on an average, 16.3% more QI events than 13 high performance facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that culture change to a PCC model is associated with higher Minimum Data Set-based quality. Longitudinal data are needed to better assess whether there is a causal relationship between the extent of culture change and quality.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors among women veterans at VA medical facilities.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and obesity in middle adulthood each elevate the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prevalence of these conditions among women veterans is incompletely described. OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of CVD risk factors among women veterans in middle adulthood. DESIGN: Serial cross-sectional studies of data from the Diabetes Epidemiologic Cohorts (DEpiC), a national, longitudinal data set including information on all patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VA). PARTICIPANTS: Women veterans (n = 255,891) and men veterans (n = 2,271,605) aged 35-64 receiving VA care in fiscal year (FY) 2010. MAIN MEASURES: Prevalence of CVD risk factors in FY2010 by age and, for those aged 45-54 years, by race, region, period of military service, priority status, and mental illness or substance abuse; prevalence by year from 2000 to 2010 in women veterans receiving VA care in both 2000 and 2010 who were free of the factor in 2000. KEY RESULTS: Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes were common among women and men, although more so among men. Hypertension was present in 13 % of women aged 35-44 years, 28 % of women aged 45-54, and 42 % of women aged 55-64. Hyperlipidemia prevalence was similar. Diabetes affected 4 % of women aged 35-44, and increased more than four-fold in prevalence to 18 % by age 55-64. The prevalence of obesity increased from 14 % to 18 % with age among women and was similarly prevalent in men. The relative rate of having two or more CVD risk factors in women compared to men increased progressively with age, from 0.55 (35-44 years) to 0.71 (45-54) to 0.73 (55-64). Most of the women with a factor present in 2010 were first diagnosed with the condition in the 10 years between 2000 and 2010. CONCLUSIONS: CVD risk factors are common among women veterans aged 35-64. Future research should investigate which interventions would most effectively reduce risk in this population.

Effectiveness of a risk screener in identifying hepatitis C virus in a primary care setting.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated an intervention designed to identify patients at risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) through a risk screener used by primary care providers. METHODS: A clinical reminder sticker prompted physicians at 3 urban clinics to screen patients for 12 risk factors and order HCV testing if any risks were present. Risk factor data were collected from the sticker; demographic and testing data were extracted from electronic medical records. We used the t test, χ(2) test, and rank-sum test to compare patients who had and had not been screened and developed an analytic model to identify the incremental value of each element of the screener. RESULTS: Among screened patients, 27.8% (n = 902) were identified as having at least 1 risk factor. Of screened patients with risk factors, 55.4% (n = 500) were tested for HCV. Our analysis showed that 7 elements (injection drug use, intranasal drug use, elevated alanine aminotransferase, transfusions before 1992, ≥ 20 lifetime sex partners, maternal HCV, existing liver disease) accounted for all HCV infections identified. CONCLUSIONS: A brief risk screener with a paper-based clinical reminder was effective in increasing HCV testing in a primary care setting.

Trends in the inpatient quality indicators: the Veterans Health Administration experience.

BACKGROUND: The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Inpatient Quality Indicators (IQIs), which include in-hospital mortality and utilization rates, have received little attention in the Veterans Health Administration (VA), despite extensive private sector use for quality improvement. OBJECTIVES: We examined the following: the feasibility of applying the IQIs to VA data; temporal trends in national VA IQI rates; temporal and regional IQI trends in geographic areas defined by Veterans Integrated Service Networks' (VISNs); and VA versus non-VA (Nationwide Inpatient Sample) temporal trends. METHODS: We derived VA- and VISN-level IQI observed rates, risk-adjusted rates, and observed to expected ratios (O/Es), using VA inpatient data (2004-2007). We examined the trends in VA- and VISN-level rates using weighted linear regression, variation in VISN-level O/Es, and compared VA to non-VA trends. RESULTS: VA in-hospital mortality rates from selected medical conditions (stroke, hip fracture, pneumonia) decreased significantly over time; procedure-related mortality rates were unchanged. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy rates increased significantly. A few VISNs were consistently high or low outliers for the medical-related mortality IQIs. Within any given year, utilization indicators, especially cardiac catheterization and cholecystectomy, showed the most inter-VISN variation. Compared with the non-VA, VA medical-related mortality rates for the above-mentioned conditions decreased more rapidly, whereas laparascopic cholecystectomy rates rose more steeply. CONCLUSIONS: The IQIs are easily applied to VA administrative data. They can be useful to tracks rate trends over time, reveal variation between sites, and for trend comparisons with other healthcare systems. By identifying potential quality events related to mortality and utilization, they may complement existing VA quality improvement initiatives.

Comparison of in-hospital versus 30-day mortality assessments for selected medical conditions.

BACKGROUND: In-hospital mortality measures such as the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Inpatient Quality Indicators (IQIs) are easily derived using hospital discharge abstracts and publicly available software. However, hospital assessments based on a 30-day postadmission interval might be more accurate given potential differences in facility discharge practices. OBJECTIVES: To compare in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for 6 medical conditions using the AHRQ IQI software. METHODS: We used IQI software (v3.1) and 2004-2007 Veterans Health Administration (VA) discharge and Vital Status files to derive 4-year facility-level in-hospital and 30-day observed mortality rates and observed/expected ratios (O/Es) for admissions with a principal diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hip fracture, and pneumonia. We standardized software-calculated O/Es to the VA population and compared O/Es and outlier status across sites using correlation, observed agreement, and kappas. RESULTS: Of 119 facilities, in-hospital versus 30-day mortality O/E correlations were generally high (median: r = 0.78; range: 0.31-0.86). Examining outlier status, observed agreement was high (median: 84.7%, 80.7%-89.1%). Kappas showed at least moderate agreement (k > 0.40) for all indicators except stroke and hip fracture (k ≤ 0.22). Across indicators, few sites changed from a high to nonoutlier or low outlier, or vice versa (median: 10, range: 7-13). CONCLUSIONS: The AHRQ IQI software can be easily adapted to generate 30-day mortality rates. Although 30-day mortality has better face validity as a hospital performance measure than in-hospital mortality, site assessments were similar despite the definition used. Thus, the measure selected for internal benchmarking should primarily depend on the healthcare system's data linkage capabilities.

Approximate models for aggregate data when individual-level data sets are very large or unavailable.

In this article, we study a Bayesian hierarchical model for profiling health-care facilities using approximately sufficient statistics for aggregate facility-level data when the patient-level data sets are very large or unavailable. Starting with a desired patient-level model, we give several approximate models and the corresponding summary statistics necessary to implement the approximations. The key idea is to use sufficient statistics from an approximate model fitted by matching up derivatives of the models' log-likelihood functions. This derivative matching approach leads to an approximation that performs better than the commonly used approximation given in the literature. The performance of several approximation approaches is compared using data on 5 quality indicators from 32 Veterans Administration nursing homes.

Variation in antibiotic treatment for diabetic patients with serious foot infections: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic foot infections are common, serious, and diverse. There is uncertainty about optimal antibiotic treatment, and probably substantial variation in practice. Our aim was to document whether this is the case: A finding that would raise questions about the comparative cost-effectiveness of different regimens and also open the possibility of examining costs and outcomes to determine which should be preferred. METHODS: We used the Veterans Health Administration (VA) Diabetes Epidemiology Cohorts (DEpiC) database to conduct a retrospective observational study of hospitalized patients with diabetic foot infections. DEpiC contains computerized VA and Medicare patient-level data for VA patients with diabetes since 1998, including demographics, ICD-9-CM diagnostic codes, antibiotics prescribed, and VA facility. We identified all patients with ICD-9-CM codes for cellulitis/abscess of the foot and then sub-grouped them according to whether they had cellulitis/abscess plus codes for gangrene, osteomyelitis, skin ulcer, or none of these. For each facility, we determined: 1) The proportion of patients treated with an antibiotic and the initial route of administration; 2) The first antibiotic regimen prescribed for each patient, defined as treatment with the same antibiotic, or combination of antibiotics, for at least 5 continuous days; and 3) The antibacterial spectrum of the first regimen. RESULTS: We identified 3,792 patients with cellulitis/abscess of the foot either alone (16.4%), or with ulcer (32.6%), osteomyelitis (19.0%) or gangrene (32.0%). Antibiotics were prescribed for 98.9%. At least 5 continuous days of treatment with an unchanged regimen of one or more antibiotics was prescribed for 59.3%. The means and (ranges) across facilities of the three most common regimens were: 16.4%, (22.8%); 15.7%, (36.1%); and 10.8%, (50.5%). The range of variation across facilities proved substantially greater than that across the different categories of foot infection. We found similar variation in the spectrum of the antibiotic regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The large variations in regimen appear to reflect differences in facility practice styles rather than case mix. It is unlikely that all regimens are equally cost-effective. Our methods make possible evaluation of many regimens across many facilities, and can be applied in further studies to determine which antibiotic regimens should be preferred.

Healthcare practitioner experiences and willingness to prescribe pre-exposure prophylaxis in the US.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Less than 10 percent of the more than one million people vulnerable to HIV are using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Practitioners are critical to ensuring the delivery of PrEP across care settings. In this study, we target a group of prescribers focused on providing HIV care and seeking up-to-date information about HIV. We assessed their experiences prescribing PrEP, whether these experiences differed by clinical specialty, and examined associations between willingness to prescribe PrEP as a "best first step" and different hypothetical prescribing scenarios. SETTING AND METHODS: Between March and May 2015, we circulated a paper survey to 954 participants ((652 of whom met our inclusion criteria of being independent prescribers and 519 of those (80%) responded to the survey)) at continuing medical education advanced-level HIV courses in five locations across the US on practitioner practices and preferences of PrEP. We employed multivariable logistic regression analysis for binary and collapsed ordinal outcomes. RESULTS: Among this highly motivated group of practitioners, only 54% reported ever prescribing PrEP. Internal medicine practitioners were 1.6 times more likely than infectious disease practitioners to have prescribed PrEP (95% CI: 0.99-2.60, p = .0524) and age, years of training, and sex were significantly associated with prescribing experience. Based on clinical vignettes describing different hypothetical prescribing scenarios, practitioners who viewed PrEP as the first clinical step for persons who inject drugs (PWID) were twice as likely to have also considered PrEP as the first clinical option for safer conception, and vice-a-versa (95% CI: 1.4-3.2, p < .001). Practitioners considering PrEP as the first preventive option for MSM were nearly six times as likely to also consider PrEP as the first clinical step for PWID, and vice-a-versa (95% CI: 2.28-13.56, p = .0002). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that even among a subset of HIV-focused practitioners, PrEP prescribing is not routine. This group of practitioners could be an optimal group to engage individuals that could most benefit from PrEP.

Dense Breast Notification Laws: Impact on Downstream Imaging After Screening Mammography.

Dense breast tissue is a common finding that decreases the sensitivity of mammography in detecting cancer. Many states have recently enacted dense breast notification (DBN) laws to provide patients with information to help them make better-informed decisions about their health. To test whether DBN legislation affected the probability of screening mammography follow-up by ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), we examined the proportion of times screening mammography was followed by ultrasound or MRI for a series of months pre- and post-legislation. The subjects were women aged 40 to 64 years, covered by private health insurance, undergoing screening mammography from 2007 to 2014. Except for Hawaii, Maryland, and New York, DBN legislation significantly increased the probability of ultrasound follow-up in all states that implemented DBN legislation before December 2014. It also increased the probability of MRI follow-up in California, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The financial and access consequences merit further study.

Inappropriate Antibiotic Prescribing for Acute Bronchitis in Children and Impact on Subsequent Episodes of Care and Treatment.

BACKGROUND: To examine whether inappropriate antibiotic treatment for an initial bout of acute bronchitis in childhood affects patterns of future healthcare utilization and antibiotic prescribing. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of children with at least 1 acute bronchitis episode, defined as the 14-day period after an acute bronchitis visit, born in 2008 and followed through 2015 in a nationally representative commercial claims database. We predicted the likelihood of returning for a subsequent acute bronchitis episode, and being prescribed an antibiotic as part of that episode, as a function of whether or not the child was prescribed an antibiotic as part of the first acute bronchitis episode controlling for patient, provider and practice characteristics. RESULTS: Children prescribed an antibiotic as part of their initial acute bronchitis episode were more likely both to have a subsequent acute bronchitis episode (hazard ratio = 1.23; 95% confidence interval: 1.17-1.30) and to be prescribed an antibiotic as part of that second episode (hazard ratio = 2.13; 95% confidence interval: 1.99-2.28) compared with children who were not prescribed as part of their first episode. Children diagnosed with asthma were more likely to experience a second visit for acute bronchitis, but less likely to receive an antibiotic as part of that second episode. CONCLUSIONS: Inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for a child's initial acute bronchitis episode of care predicted likelihood of subsequent acute bronchitis episodes and antibiotic prescriptions. Providers should consider the downstream effect of inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for acute bronchitis in childhood.

Using patient safety indicators to estimate the impact of potential adverse events on outcomes.

The authors estimated the impact of potentially preventable patient safety events, identified by Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs), on patient outcomes: mortality, length of stay (LOS), and cost. The PSIs were applied to all acute inpatient hospitalizations at Veterans Health Administration (VA) facilities in fiscal 2001. Two methods-regression analysis and multivariable case matching- were used independently to control for patient and facility characteristics while predicting the effect of the PSI on each outcome. The authors found statistically significant (p < .0001) excess mortality, LOS, and cost in all groups with PSIs. The magnitude of the excess varied considerably across the PSIs. These VA findings are similar to those from a previously published study of nonfederal hospitals, despite differences between VA and non-VA systems. This study contributes to the literature measuring outcomes of medical errors and provides evidence that AHRQ PSIs may be useful indicators for comparison across delivery systems.

Meta-Analysis of Sulfonylurea Therapy on Long-Term Risk of Mortality and Cardiovascular Events Compared to Other Oral Glucose-Lowering Treatments.

INTRODUCTION: Among the most pressing clinical decisions in type 2 diabetes treatments are which drugs should be used after metformin is no longer sufficient, and whether sulfonylureas (SUs) should remain as a suitable second-line treatment. In this article we summarize current evidence on the long-term safety risks associated with SU therapy relative to other oral glucose-lowering therapies. METHODS: The MEDLINE database and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched for observational and experimental studies comparing the safety of SUs to that of other diabetes medications in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus through December 15, 2015. Studies with at least 1 year of follow-up, which explicitly examined major cardiovascular events or death in patients who showed no evidence of serious conditions at baseline, were selected for inclusion in meta-analyses. RESULTS: SU treatment was associated with an elevated risk relative to treatment with metformin (METF), thiazolidinedione (TZD), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4), and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist classes, either when compared alone (as a monotherapy) or when used in combination with METF. Significant findings were almost entirely derived from nontrial data and not confirmed by smaller, efficacy designed randomized controlled trials whose effects were in the same direction but much more imprecise. CONCLUSION: Although much of the evidence is derived and will continue to come from observational studies, the methodological rigor of such studies is questionable. A key challenge for evaluators is the extent to which they should incorporate evidence from study designs that are quasi-experimental.

Cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention for conception in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the value of coformulated Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for conception in the U.S. and to identify scenarios in which 'Undetectable = Untransmittable' (U = U) may not be adequate, and rather, PrEP or assisted reproduction would improve outcomes. DESIGN: We developed a Markov cohort simulation model to estimate the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of PrEP compared with alternative safer conception strategies, including combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) alone for the HIV-infected partner and assisted reproductive technologies. We modelled various scenarios in which HIV RNA suppression in the male partner was less than perfect. SETTING: U.S. healthcare sector perspective. PARTICIPANTS: Serodiscordant couples in the U.S. was composed of an HIV-infected male and HIV-uninfected female seeking conception. INTERVENTION: Economic analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Cumulative risks of HIV transmission to women and babies, maternal life expectancy, discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALY), discounted lifetime medical costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: cART with condomless intercourse limited to ovulation was the preferred HIV prevention strategy among women seeking to conceive with an HIV-infected partner who is HIV-suppressed. PrEP was not cost-effective for women who had partners who were virologically suppressed. When the probability of male partner HIV suppression was low and we assumed generic pricing of PrEP, PrEP was cost-effective, and sometimes even cost-saving compared with cART alone. CONCLUSION: From a U.S. healthcare sector perspective, when the male partner was not reliably suppressed, PrEP became economically attractive, and in some cases, cost-saving.

Health status among 28,000 women veterans. The VA Women's Health Program Evaluation Project.

BACKGROUND: Male veterans receiving Veterans Health Administration (VA) care have worse health than men in the general population. Less is known about health status in women veteran VA patients, a rapidly growing population. OBJECTIVE: To characterize health status of women (vs men) veteran VA patients across age cohorts, and assess gender differences in the effect of social support upon health status. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: Data came from the national 1999 Large Health Survey of Veteran Enrollees (response rate 63%) and included 28,048 women and 651,811 men who used VA in the prior 3 years. MEASUREMENTS: Dimensions of health status from validated Veterans Short Form-36 instrument; social support (married, living arrangement, have someone to take patient to the doctor). RESULTS: In each age stratum (18 to 44, 45 to 64, and > or =65 years), Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores were clinically comparable by gender, except that for those aged > or =65, mean MCS was better for women than men (49.3 vs 45.9, P<.001). Patient gender had a clinically insignificant effect upon PCS and MCS after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and education. Women had lower levels of social support than men; in patients aged <65, being married or living with someone benefited MCS more in men than in women. CONCLUSIONS: Women veteran VA patients have as heavy a burden of physical and mental illness as do men in VA, and are expected to require comparable intensity of health care services. Their ill health occurs in the context of poor social support, and varies by age.

Performance of statistical models to predict mental health and substance abuse cost.

BACKGROUND: Providers use risk-adjustment systems to help manage healthcare costs. Typically, ordinary least squares (OLS) models on either untransformed or log-transformed cost are used. We examine the predictive ability of several statistical models, demonstrate how model choice depends on the goal for the predictive model, and examine whether building models on samples of the data affects model choice. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 525,620 Veterans Health Administration patients with mental health (MH) or substance abuse (SA) diagnoses who incurred costs during fiscal year 1999. We tested two models on a transformation of cost: a Log Normal model and a Square-root Normal model, and three generalized linear models on untransformed cost, defined by distributional assumption and link function: Normal with identity link (OLS); Gamma with log link; and Gamma with square-root link. Risk-adjusters included age, sex, and 12 MH/SA categories. To determine the best model among the entire dataset, predictive ability was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), and predictive ratios of predicted to observed cost (PR) among deciles of predicted cost, by comparing point estimates and 95% bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. To study the effect of analyzing a random sample of the population on model choice, we re-computed these statistics using random samples beginning with 5,000 patients and ending with the entire sample. RESULTS: The Square-root Normal model had the lowest estimates of the RMSE and MAPE, with bootstrap confidence intervals that were always lower than those for the other models. The Gamma with square-root link was best as measured by the PRs. The choice of best model could vary if smaller samples were used and the Gamma with square-root link model had convergence problems with small samples. CONCLUSION: Models with square-root transformation or link fit the data best. This function (whether used as transformation or as a link) seems to help deal with the high comorbidity of this population by introducing a form of interaction. The Gamma distribution helps with the long tail of the distribution. However, the Normal distribution is suitable if the correct transformation of the outcome is used.