A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data.

BACKGROUND: The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. METHODS: We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. RESULTS: Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). CONCLUSION: Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

UNLABELLED: Although ground-level PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm) monitoring sites provide accurate measurements, their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. Satellite data expand spatial coverage, enhancing our ability to estimate location- and/or subject-specific exposures to PM2.5. In this study, the authors apply a mixed-effects model approach to aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to predict PM2.5 concentrations within the New England area of the United States. With this approach, it is possible to control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles, and ground surface reflectance. The model-predicted PM2.5 mass concentration are highly correlated with the actual observations, R2 = 0.92. Therefore, adjustment for the daily variability in AOD-PM2.5 relationship allows obtaining spatially resolved PM2.5 concentration data that can be of great value to future exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. IMPLICATIONS: The authors demonstrated how AOD can be used reliably to predict daily PM2.5 mass concentrations, providing determination of their spatial and temporal variability. Promising results are found by adjusting for daily variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, without the need to account for a wide variety of individual additional parameters. This approach is of a great potential to investigate the associations between subject-specific exposures to PM2.5 and their health effects. Higher 4 x 4-km resolution GOES AOD retrievals comparing with the conventional MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 10-km product has the potential to capture PM2.5 variability within the urban domain.

Spatiotemporal estimation of air temperature patterns at the street level using high resolution satellite imagery.

Although meteorological monitoring stations provide accurate measurements of Air Temperature (AT), their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus is often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. In many applications, satellite imagery measures energy flux, which is spatially continuous, and calculates Brightness Temperature (BT) that used as an input parameter. Although both quantities (AT-BT) are physically related, the correlation between them is not straightforward, and varies daily due to parameters such as meteorological conditions, surface moisture, land use, satellite-surface geometry and others. In this paper we first investigate the relationship between AT and BT as measured by 39 meteorological stations in Israel during 1984-2015. Thereafter, we apply mixed regression models with daily random slopes to calibrate Landsat BT data with monitored AT measurements for the period 1984-2015. Results show that AT can be predicted with high accuracy by using BT with high spatial resolution. The model shows relatively high accuracy estimation of AT (R2=0.92, RMSE=1.58°C, slope=0.90). Incorporating meteorological parameters into the model generates better accuracy (R2=0.935) than the AT-BT model (R2=0.92). Furthermore, based on the relatively high model accuracy, we investigated the spatial patterns of AT within the study domain. In the latter we focused on July-August, as these two months are characterized by relativity stable synoptic conditions in the study area. In addition, a temporal change in AT during the last 30years was estimated and verified using available meteorological stations and two additional remote sensing platforms. Finally, the impact of different land coverage on AT were estimated, as an example of future application of the presented approach.

Spatial scales of pollution from variable resolution satellite imaging.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides daily global coverage, but the 10 km resolution of its aerosol optical depth (AOD) product is not adequate for studying spatial variability of aerosols in urban areas. Recently, a new Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was developed for MODIS which provides AOD at 1 km resolution. Using MAIAC data, the relationship between MAIAC AOD and PM(2.5) as measured by the EPA ground monitoring stations was investigated at varying spatial scales. Our analysis suggested that the correlation between PM(2.5) and AOD decreased significantly as AOD resolution was degraded. This is so despite the intrinsic mismatch between PM(2.5) ground level measurements and AOD vertically integrated measurements. Furthermore, the fine resolution results indicated spatial variability in particle concentration at a sub-10 km scale. Finally, this spatial variability of AOD within the urban domain was shown to depend on PM(2.5) levels and wind speed.