Enabling health and maintaining independence for older people at home (HomeHealth trial): a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: NHS frailty services commonly target more severely frail older people, despite evidence suggesting frailty can be prevented or reversed when addressed at an earlier stage. HomeHealth is a new home-based, manualised voluntary sector service supporting older people with mild frailty to maintain their independence through behaviour change. Over six appointments, a trained HomeHealth worker discusses what matters to the older person and supports them to set and achieve goals around mobility, nutrition, socialising and/or psychological wellbeing. The service showed promising effects in a feasibility trial. We aimed to test the clinical and cost-effectiveness of HomeHealth for maintaining independence in older people with mild frailty compared with treatment as usual. METHODS: In this single-blind multicentre randomised controlled trial, we recruited community-dwelling older people aged 65 years or older with mild frailty from 27 general practices, community groups and sheltered housing in London, Yorkshire, and Hertfordshire. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either HomeHealth monthly for 6 months or treatment as usual (usual GP and outpatient care, no specific frailty services). Our primary outcome was independence in activities of daily living, measured by blinded outcome assessors using the modified Barthel Index, and analysed using linear mixed models, including 6-month and 12-month data and controlling for baseline Barthel score and site. The study was approved by the Social Care Research Ethics Committee, and all participants provided written or orally recorded informed consent. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN54268283. FINDINGS: This trial took place between Jan 18, 2021, and July 4, 2023. We recruited 388 participants (mean age 81·4 years; 64% female [n=250], 94% White British/European [n=364], 2·5% Asian [n=10], 1·5% Black [n=6], 2·0% other [n=8]). We achieved high retention for 6-month follow-up (89%, 345/388), 12-month follow-up (86%, 334/388), and medical notes data (89%, 347/388). 182 (93%) of 195 participants in the intervention group completed the intervention, attending a mean of 5·6 appointments. HomeHealth had no effect on Barthel Index scores at 12 months (mean difference 0·250, 95% CI -0·932 to 1·432). At 6 months, there was a small reduction in psychological distress (-1·237, -2·127 to -0·348) and frailty (-0·124, -0·232 to -0·017), and at 12 months, we found small positive effects on wellbeing (1·449, 0·124 to 2·775) in those receiving HomeHealth. Other outcomes in analysis to date showed no significant difference. Health economic outcomes (including quality of life, capability, health services use and care needs or burden) are pending. INTERPRETATION: This high-quality trial showed that HomeHealth did not maintain independence in older people with mild frailty, and had limited effects upon secondary outcomes. Future studies need to explore different ways to promote health in this population. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA).

Evaluating methods of detecting and determining the type of urinary incontinence in adults after stroke: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Urinary incontinence (UI) affects over half of people with stroke. It is unclear which methods are accurate in assessing presence and type of UI to inform clinical management. Diagnosis of UI based on inaccurate methods may lead to unnecessary interventions. The aims of this systematic review were to identify, for adults with stroke, clinically accurate methods to determine the presence of UI and type of UI. METHOD: We searched seven electronic databases and additional conference proceedings. To be included, studies had to be primary research comparing two or more methods, or use a reference test. RESULTS: We identified 3846 studies with eight eligible for inclusion. We identified 11 assessment methods within the eight studies. Only five studies had sufficient comparator data for synthesis. Due to heterogeneity of data, results on the following methods were narratively synthesized: Core Lower Urinary Tract Symptom Score (CLSS), clinical history and physical examination, Barthel Activities of Daily Living Index, International Consultation Incontinence Questionnaire Short Form (ICiQ-SF) and urodynamic studies (UDS). Most studies were small and of low to medium quality. All reported differences in sensitivity, and none compared the same assessment methods. CONCLUSION: Current evidence is insufficient to support recommendations on the most accurate UI assessment for adults with stroke. Further research is needed.

What are the priorities for research of older people living in their own home, including those living with frailty? A systematic review and content analysis of studies reporting older people's priorities and unmet needs.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence regarding the needs of older people, including those living with frailty, to inform research priority setting. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aimed to identify the range of research priorities of community-dwelling older people living in their own home, including those living with frailty. METHODS: Included studies were from economically developed countries and designed to identify the priorities for research or unmet needs of community-dwelling older people. Studies were excluded if they described priorities relating to specific health conditions. Medline, Embase, PsycInfo and CINAHL were searched (January 2010-June 2022), alongside grey literature. Study quality was assessed, but studies were not excluded on the basis of quality. A bespoke data extraction form was used and content analysis undertaken to synthesise findings. RESULTS: Seventy-five reports were included. Seven explicitly aimed to identify the priorities or unmet needs of frail older people; 68 did not specify frailty as a characteristic. Study designs varied, including priority setting exercises, surveys, interviews, focus groups and literature reviews. Identified priorities and unmet needs were organised into themes: prevention and management, improving health and care service provision, improving daily life, meeting carers' needs and planning ahead. DISCUSSION: Many priority areas were raised by older people, carers and health/care professionals, but few were identified explicitly by/for frail older people. An overarching need was identified for tailored, collaborative provision of care and support. CONCLUSION: Review findings provide a valuable resource for researchers and health/care staff wishing to focus their research or service provision on areas of importance for older people.

New horizons in frailty identification via electronic frailty indices: early implementation lessons from experiences in England and the United States.

Frailty represents an integrative prognostic marker of risk that associates with a myriad of age-related adverse outcomes in older adults. As a concept, frailty can help to target scarce resources and identify subgroups of vulnerable older adults that may benefit from interventions or changes in medical management, such as pursing less aggressive glycaemic targets for frail older adults with diabetes. In practice, however, there are several operational challenges to implementing frailty screening outside the confines of geriatric medicine. Electronic frailty indices (eFIs) based on the theory of deficit accumulation, derived from routine data housed in the electronic health record, have emerged as a rapid, feasible and valid approach to screen for frailty at scale. The goal of this paper is to describe the early experience of three diverse groups in developing, implementing and adopting eFIs (The English National Health Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs and Atrium Health-Wake Forest Baptist). These groups span different countries and organisational complexity, using eFIs for both research and clinical care, and represent different levels of progress with clinical implementation. Using an implementation science framework, we describe common elements of successful implementation in these settings and set an agenda for future research and expansion of eFI-informed initiatives.

Development of the Community-based complex Interventions to sustain Independence in Older People (CII-OP) typology: a qualitative synthesis of interventions in randomised controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Community-based services to sustain independence for older people have varying configurations. A typology of these interventions would improve service provision and research by providing conceptual clarity and enabling the identification of effective configurations. We aimed to produce such a typology. METHOD: We developed our typology by qualitatively synthesising community-based complex interventions to sustain independence in older people, evaluated in randomised controlled trials (RCTs), in four stages: (i) systematically identifying relevant RCTs; (ii) extracting descriptions of interventions (including control) using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication; (iii) generating categories of key intervention features and (iv) grouping the interventions based on these categories. PROSPERO registration: CRD42019162195. RESULTS: Our search identified 129 RCTs involving 266 intervention arms. The Community-based complex Interventions to sustain Independence in Older People (CII-OP) typology comprises 14 action components and 5 tailoring components. Action components include procedures for treating patients or otherwise intended to directly improve their outcomes; regular examples include formal homecare; physical exercise; health education; activities of daily living training; providing aids and adaptations and nutritional support. Tailoring components involve a process that may result in care planning, with multiple action components being planned, recommended or prescribed. Multifactorial action from care planning was the most common tailoring component. It involves individualised, multidomain assessment and management, as in comprehensive geriatric assessment. Sixty-three different intervention types (combinations) were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Our typology provides an empirical basis for service planning and evidence synthesis. We recommend better reporting about organisational aspects of interventions and usual care.

Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Falls are common in older adults and can devastate personal independence through injury such as fracture and fear of future falls. Methods to identify people for falls prevention interventions are currently limited, with high risks of bias in published prediction models. We have developed and externally validated the eFalls prediction model using routinely collected primary care electronic health records (EHR) to predict risk of emergency department attendance/hospitalisation with fall or fracture within 1 year. METHODS: Data comprised two independent, retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥65 years: the population of Wales, from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (model development); the population of Bradford and Airedale, England, from Connected Bradford (external validation). Predictors included electronic frailty index components, supplemented with variables informed by literature reviews and clinical expertise. Fall/fracture risk was modelled using multivariable logistic regression with a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator penalty. Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and clinical utility. Apparent, internal-external cross-validation and external validation performance were assessed across general practices and in clinically relevant subgroups. RESULTS: The model's discrimination performance (c-statistic) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.68 to 0.76) on internal-external cross-validation and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83) on external validation. Calibration was variable across practices, with some over-prediction in the validation population (calibration-in-the-large, -0.87; 95% CI: -0.96 to -0.78). Clinical utility on external validation was improved after recalibration. CONCLUSION: The eFalls prediction model shows good performance and could support proactive stratification for falls prevention services if appropriately embedded into primary care EHR systems.

The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: Antihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment.

Trends in incidence of recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis, osteopenia, and fragility fractures in people aged 50 years and above: retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data.

This study used primary care data to estimate the incidence of recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis, osteopenia, and fragility fracture in the UK during 2000-2018 accounting for age, sex, calendar year and social deprivation. More than 3 million people aged 50-99 years were included. We found that men living in the most deprived areas had a 45% higher risk of being diagnosed with osteoporosis and 50% higher risk of fragility fracture compared to men living in the least deprived areas. PURPOSE: a) To estimate the incidence trends of a recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis, osteopenia, and fragility fracture in the UK over time; b) to describe differences according to age, sex, and social deprivation. METHODS: This is a longitudinal population-based cohort study using routinely collected primary care data obtained via IQVIA Medical Research Database (IMRD). All patients aged 50-99 years registered with a practice participating in THIN (The Health Improvement Network) between 2000-2018 were included. The first recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis, osteopenia, or fragility fracture was used to estimate incidence rates (IR) per 10,000 person-years at risk. Poisson regression was used to provide Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) adjusted by age, sex, social deprivation, calendar year, and practice effect. RESULTS: The year-specific adjusted IRR of recorded osteoporosis was highest in 2009 in women [IRR 1.44(95%CI 1.38-1.50)], whereas in men it was highest in 2013-2014 [IRR 1.94(95%CI 1.72-2.18)] compared to 2000. The year-specific adjusted IRR of fragility fracture was highest in 2012 in women [IRR 1.77(95%CI 1.69-1.85)], whereas in men it was highest in 2013 [IRR 1.64(95%CI 1.51-1.78)] compared to 2000. Men in the most deprived areas had a higher risk of being diagnosed with osteoporosis [IRR 1.45(95%CI 1.38-1.53)], osteopenia [IRR 1.17(95%CI 1.09-1.26)], and fragility fracture [IRR 1.50(95%CI 1.44-1.56)] compared to those living in the least deprived areas, but smaller differences were seen in women. CONCLUSION: Use of fracture risk assessment tools may enhance the detection of osteoporosis cases in primary care. Further research is needed on the effect of social deprivation on diagnosis of osteoporosis and fractures.

New Horizons in artificial intelligence in the healthcare of older people.

Artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare describes algorithm-based computational techniques which manage and analyse large datasets to make inferences and predictions. There are many potential applications of AI in the care of older people, from clinical decision support systems that can support identification of delirium from clinical records to wearable devices that can predict the risk of a fall. We held four meetings of older people, clinicians and AI researchers. Three priority areas were identified for AI application in the care of older people. These included: monitoring and early diagnosis of disease, stratified care and care coordination between healthcare providers. However, the meetings also highlighted concerns that AI may exacerbate health inequity for older people through bias within AI models, lack of external validation amongst older people, infringements on privacy and autonomy, insufficient transparency of AI models and lack of safeguarding for errors. Creating effective interventions for older people requires a person-centred approach to account for the needs of older people, as well as sufficient clinical and technological governance to meet standards of generalisability, transparency and effectiveness. Education of clinicians and patients is also needed to ensure appropriate use of AI technologies, with investment in technological infrastructure required to ensure equity of access.

The extent of anticholinergic burden across an older Welsh population living with frailty: cross-sectional analysis of general practice records.

BACKGROUND: Anticholinergic medicines are associated with adverse outcomes for older people. However, little is known about their use in frailty. The objectives were to (i) investigate the prevalence of anticholinergic prescribing for older patients, and (ii) examine anticholinergic burden according to frailty status. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of Welsh primary care data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank including patients aged ≥65 at their first GP consultation between 1 January and 31 December 2018. Frailty was identified using the electronic Frailty Index and anticholinergic burden using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were conducted to (i) describe the type and frequency of anticholinergics prescribed; and (ii) to estimate the association between frailty and cumulative ACB score (ACB-Sum). RESULTS: In this study of 529,095 patients, 47.4% of patients receiving any prescription medications were prescribed at least one anticholinergic medicine. Adjusted regression analysis showed that patients with increasing frailty had higher odds of having an ACB-Sum of >3 compared with patients who were fit (mild frailty, adj OR 1.062 (95%CI 1.061-1.064), moderate frailty, adj OR 1.134 (95%CI 1.131-1.136), severe frailty, adj OR 1.208 (95%CI 1.203-1.213)). CONCLUSIONS: Anticholinergic prescribing was high in this older population. Older people with advancing frailty are exposed to the highest anticholinergic burden despite being the most vulnerable to the associated adverse effects. Older people with advancing frailty should be considered for medicines review to prevent overaccumulation of anticholinergic medications, given the risks of functional and cognitive decline that frailty presents.

Interventions for reducing anticholinergic medication burden in older adults-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Anticholinergic medications block the neurotransmitter acetylcholine in the brain and peripheral nervous system. Many medications have anticholinergic properties, and the cumulative effect of these medications is termed anticholinergic burden. Increased anticholinergic burden can have short-term side effects such as dry mouth, blurred vision and urinary retention as well as long-term effects including dementia, worsening physical function and falls. METHODS: We carried out a systematic review (SR) with meta-analysis (MA) looking at randomised controlled trials addressing interventions to reduce anticholinergic burden in older adults. RESULTS: We identified seven papers suitable for inclusion in our SR and MA. Interventions included multi-disciplinary involvement in medication reviews and deprescribing of AC medications. Pooled data revealed no significant difference in outcomes between control and intervention group for falls (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.52-1.11, n = 647), cognition (mean difference = 1.54, 95% CI: -0.04 to 3.13, n = 405), anticholinergic burden (mean difference = 0.04, 95% CI: -0.11 to 0.18, n = 710) or quality of life (mean difference = 0.04, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.12, n = 461). DISCUSSION: Overall, there was no significant difference with interventions to reduce anticholinergic burden. As we did not see a significant change in anticholinergic burden scores following interventions, it is likely other outcomes would not change. Short follow-up time and lack of training and support surrounding successful deprescribing may have contributed.

Frailty transitions and prevalence in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of primary care data from an open cohort of adults aged 50 and over in England, 2006-2017.

INTRODUCTION: frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs. METHODS: retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006-2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50-64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50-64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65-74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75-84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages. CONCLUSIONS: frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50-64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations.

Attainment of NICE blood pressure targets among older people with newly diagnosed hypertension: nationwide linked electronic health records cohort study.

BACKGROUND: it is not known if clinical practice reflects guideline recommendations for the management of hypertension in older people and whether guideline adherence varies according to overall health status. AIMS: to describe the proportion of older people attaining National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline blood pressure targets within 1 year of hypertension diagnosis and determine predictors of target attainment. METHODS: a nationwide cohort study of Welsh primary care data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank including patients aged ≥65 years newly diagnosed with hypertension between 1st June 2011 and 1st June 2016. The primary outcome was attainment of NICE guideline blood pressure targets as measured by the latest blood pressure recording up to 1 year after diagnosis. Predictors of target attainment were investigated using logistic regression. RESULTS: there were 26,392 patients (55% women, median age 71 [IQR 68-77] years) included, of which 13,939 (52.8%) attained a target blood pressure within a median follow-up of 9 months. Success in attaining target blood pressure was associated with a history of atrial fibrillation (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11, 1.43), heart failure (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.06, 1.49) and myocardial infarction (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.32), all compared to no history of each, respectively. Care home residence, the severity of frailty, and increasing co-morbidity were not associated with target attainment following adjustment for confounder variables. CONCLUSIONS: blood pressure remains insufficiently controlled 1 year after diagnosis in nearly half of older people with newly diagnosed hypertension, but target attainment appears unrelated to baseline frailty, multi-morbidity or care home residence.

Household wealth, neighbourhood deprivation and frailty amongst middle-aged and older adults in England: a longitudinal analysis over 15 years (2002-2017).

BACKGROUND: frailty is a condition of reduced function and health due to ageing processes and is associated with a higher risk of falls, hospitalisation, disability and mortality. OBJECTIVE: to determine the relationship between household wealth and neighbourhood deprivation with frailty status, independently of demographic factors, educational attainment and health behaviours. DESIGN: population-based cohort study. SETTING: communities in England. SUBJECTS: in total 17,438 adults aged 50+ from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. METHODS: multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic regression was used in this study. Frailty was measured using a frailty index. We defined small geographic areas (neighbourhoods) using English Lower layer Super Output Areas. Neighbourhood deprivation was measured by the English Index of Multiple Deprivation, grouped into quintiles. Health behaviours included in this study are smoking and frequency of alcohol consumption. RESULTS: the proportion of respondents who were prefrail and frail were 33.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 33.0-34.6%] and 11.7 (11.1-12.2)%, respectively. Participants in the lowest wealth quintile and living in the most deprived neighbourhood quintile had 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2-1.3) and 2.2 (95% CI = 2.1-2.4) times higher odds of being prefrail and frail, respectively, than the wealthiest participants living in the least deprived neighbourhoods Living in more deprived neighbourhood and poorer wealth was associated with an increased risk of becoming frail. Those inequalities did not change over time. CONCLUSIONS: in this population-based sample, living in a deprived area or having low wealth was associated with frailty in middle-aged and older adults. This relationship was independent of the effects of individual demographic characteristics and health behaviours.

Outcome measures for economic evaluations and cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions for people with intellectual disabilities: A methodological systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mainstream economic evaluations methods may not be appropriate to capture the range of effects triggered by interventions for people with intellectual disabilities. In this systematic review, we aimed to identify, assess and synthesise the arguments in the literature on how the effects of interventions for people with intellectual disabilities could be measured in economic evaluations. METHOD: We searched for studies providing relevant arguments by running multi-database, backward, forward citation and grey literature searches. Following title/abstract and full-text screening, the arguments extracted from the included studies were summarised and qualitatively assessed in a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Our final analysis included three studies, with their arguments summarised in different methodological areas. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence, we suggest the use of techniques more attuned to the population with intellectual disabilities, such sensitive preference-based instruments to collect health states data, and mapping algorithms to obtain utility values.

Preventing falls at home among people with intellectual disabilities: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Falls are common among people with intellectual disabilities. Many falls happen within the home. Our scoping review aimed to identify evidence for falls-risk factors and falls-prevention interventions for this population. METHOD: We conducted a multi-database search to identify any type of published study that explored falls-risk factors or falls-prevention interventions for people with intellectual disabilities. Following a process of (i) title & abstract and (ii) full-text screening, data was extracted from the included studies and described narratively. RESULTS: Forty-one studies were included. Risks are multifactorial. There was limited evidence of medical, behavioural/psychological, or environmental interventions to address modifiable risk factors, and no evidence of the interventions' cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically and cost effective, acceptable and accessible falls-prevention pathways should be available for people with intellectual disabilities who are at risk of falls from an earlier age than the general population.

Comparative accuracy and cost-effectiveness of dynamic contrast-enhanced CT and positron emission tomography in the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules.

INTRODUCTION: Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT (DCE-CT) and positron emission tomography/CT (PET/CT) have a high reported accuracy for the diagnosis of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these. METHODS: In this prospective multicentre trial, 380 participants with an SPN (8-30 mm) and no recent history of malignancy underwent DCE-CT and PET/CT. All patients underwent either biopsy with histological diagnosis or completed CT follow-up. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and overall diagnostic accuracy for PET/CT and DCE-CT. Costs and cost-effectiveness were estimated from a healthcare provider perspective using a decision-model. RESULTS: 312 participants (47% female, 68.1±9.0 years) completed the study, with 61% rate of malignancy at 2 years. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for DCE-CT were 95.3% (95% CI 91.3 to 97.5), 29.8% (95% CI 22.3 to 38.4), 68.2% (95% CI 62.4% to 73.5%) and 80.0% (95% CI 66.2 to 89.1), respectively, and for PET/CT were 79.1% (95% CI 72.7 to 84.2), 81.8% (95% CI 74.0 to 87.7), 87.3% (95% CI 81.5 to 91.5) and 71.2% (95% CI 63.2 to 78.1). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for DCE-CT and PET/CT was 0.62 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.67) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.85), respectively (p<0.001). Combined results significantly increased diagnostic accuracy over PET/CT alone (AUROC=0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.93), p<0.001). DCE-CT was preferred when the willingness to pay per incremental cost per correctly treated malignancy was below £9000. Above £15 500 a combined approach was preferred. CONCLUSIONS: PET/CT has a superior diagnostic accuracy to DCE-CT for the diagnosis of SPNs. Combining both techniques improves the diagnostic accuracy over either test alone and could be cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02013063.

The accuracy of pulse oximetry in measuring oxygen saturation by levels of skin pigmentation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been concerns regarding potential bias in pulse oximetry measurements for people with high levels of skin pigmentation. We systematically reviewed the effects of skin pigmentation on the accuracy of oxygen saturation measurement by pulse oximetry (SpO2) compared with the gold standard SaO2 measured by CO-oximetry. METHODS: We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (up to December 2021) for studies with SpO2-SaO2 comparisons and measuring the impact of skin pigmentation or ethnicity on pulse oximetry accuracy. We performed meta-analyses for mean bias (the primary outcome in this review) and its standard deviations (SDs) across studies included for each subgroup of skin pigmentation and ethnicity and used these pooled mean biases and SDs to calculate accuracy root-mean-square (Arms) and 95% limits of agreement. The review was registered with the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/gm7ty ). RESULTS: We included 32 studies (6505 participants): 15 measured skin pigmentation and 22 referred to ethnicity. Compared with standard SaO2 measurement, pulse oximetry probably overestimates oxygen saturation in people with the high level of skin pigmentation (pooled mean bias 1.11%; 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 1.93%) and people described as Black/African American (1.52%; 0.95 to 2.09%) (moderate- and low-certainty evidence). The bias of pulse oximetry measurements for people with other levels of skin pigmentation or those from other ethnic groups is either more uncertain or suggests no overestimation. Whilst the extent of mean bias is small or negligible for all subgroups evaluated, the associated imprecision is unacceptably large (pooled SDs > 1%). When the extent of measurement bias and precision is considered jointly, pulse oximetry measurements for all the subgroups appear acceptably accurate (with Arms < 4%). CONCLUSIONS: Pulse oximetry may overestimate oxygen saturation in people with high levels of skin pigmentation and people whose ethnicity is reported as Black/African American, compared with SaO2. The extent of overestimation may be small in hospital settings but unknown in community settings. REVIEW PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/gm7ty.

Impact of oral anticoagulation on the association between frailty and clinical outcomes in people with atrial fibrillation: nationwide primary care records on treatment analysis.

AIMS: People with atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently live with frailty, which increases the risk of mortality and stroke. This study reports the association between oral anticoagulation (OAC) and outcomes for people with frailty, and whether there is overall net benefit from treatment in people with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Retrospective open cohort electronic records study. Frailty was identified using the electronic frailty index. Primary care electronic health records of 89 996 adults with AF and CHA2DS2-Vasc score of ≥2 were linked with secondary care and mortality data in the Clinical Practice Research Database (CPRD) from 1 January 1998 to 30 November 2018. The primary outcome was a composite of death, stroke, systemic embolism, or major bleeding. Secondary outcomes were stroke, major bleeding, all-cause mortality, transient ischaemic attack, and falls. Of 89 996 participants, 71 256 (79.2%) were living with frailty. The prescription of OAC increased with degree of frailty. For patients not prescribed OAC, rates of the primary outcome increased alongside frailty category. Prescription of OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary outcome for each frailty category [adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, no OAC as reference; fit: vitamin K antagonist (VKA) 0.69, 0.64-0.75, direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) 0.42, 0.33-0.53; mild frailty: VKA 0.52, 0.50-0.54, DOAC 0.57, 0.52-0.63; moderate: VKA 0.54, 0.52-0.56, DOAC 0.57, 0.52-0.63; severe: VKA 0.48, 0.45-0.51, DOAC 0.58, 0.52-0.65], with cumulative incidence function effects greater for DOAC than VKA. CONCLUSION: Frailty among people with AF is common. The OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary endpoint across all degrees of frailty.

New horizons in evidence-based care for older people: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Evidence-based decisions on clinical and cost-effectiveness of interventions are ideally informed by meta-analyses of intervention trial data. However, when undertaken, such meta-analyses in ageing research have typically been conducted using standard methods whereby summary (aggregate) data are extracted from published trial reports. Although meta-analysis of aggregate data can provide useful insights into the average effect of interventions within a selected trial population, it has limitations regarding robust conclusions on which subgroups of people stand to gain the greatest benefit from an intervention or are at risk of experiencing harm. Future evidence synthesis using individual participant data from ageing research trials for meta-analysis could transform understanding of the effectiveness of interventions for older people, supporting evidence-based and sustainable commissioning. A major advantage of individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) is that it enables examination of characteristics that predict treatment effects, such as frailty, disability, cognitive impairment, ethnicity, gender and other wider determinants of health. Key challenges of IPDMA relate to the complexity and resources needed for obtaining, managing and preparing datasets, requiring a meticulous approach involving experienced researchers, frequently with expertise in designing and analysing clinical trials. In anticipation of future IPDMA work in ageing research, we are establishing an international Ageing Research Trialists collective, to bring together trialists with a common focus on transforming care for older people as a shared ambition across nations.