Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality.

BACKGROUND: To validate and recalibrate the CR- POSSUM model and compared its discriminatory capacity with other European models such as POSSUM, P-POSSUM, AFC or IRCS to predict operative mortality in surgery for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Prospective multicenter cohort study from 22 hospitals in Spain. We included patients undergoing planned or urgent surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancers between June 2010 and December 2012 (N = 2749). Clinical data were gathered through medical chart review. We validated and recalibrated the predictive models using logistic regression techniques. To calculate the discriminatory power of each model, we estimated the areas under the curve - AUC (95% CI). We also assessed the calibration of the models by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 1.5% and 30-day mortality, 1.7%. In the validation process, the discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting in-hospital mortality was 73.6%. However, in the recalibration process, the AUCs improved slightly: the CR-POSSUM reached 75.5% (95% CI: 67.3-83.7). The discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting 30-day mortality was 74.2% (95% CI: 67.1-81.2) after recalibration; among the other models the POSSUM had the greatest discriminatory power, with an AUC of 77.0% (95% CI: 68.9-85.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good fit for all the recalibrated models. CONCLUSION: The CR-POSSUM and the other models showed moderate capacity to discriminate the risk of operative mortality in our context, where the actual operative mortality is low. Nevertheless the IRCS might better predict in-hospital mortality, with fewer variables, while the CR-POSSUM could be slightly better for predicting 30-day mortality. TRAIL REGISTRATION: Registered at: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

Type and Consequences of Short-Term Complications in Colon Cancer Surgery, Focusing on the Oldest Old.

BACKGROUND: While the proportion of colon cancer occurring in older patients is expected to increase, these patients may have more complications that may lead to serious consequences. The aim of this study was assess postoperative complications and their short-term consequences in colon cancer surgery according to age. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for primary invasive colon cancer in 22 centers between June 2010 and December 2012 were included. Presurgical and surgical variables were analyzed, and in-hospital major postoperative complications and its most serious consequence (no relevant, transfusion, reintervention, admission to the intensive care unit, or death) were estimated according to age group. Chi-square tests were used to analyze the possible associations between variables and age groups. RESULTS: Data from 1976 patients, mean (range) age 68 (24-97) years, 62% men, were analyzed; 52.2% were aged > 69 years and 17.7% were aged > 79 years. The complication rate was 25.3%, reaching 30.9% in those aged ≥ 80 years. Older age was associated with a higher rate of postoperative infections during the hospital stay. The most common surgical complication in patients aged > 85 years was dehiscence of the anastomosis (11.5%). About 5% of patients with major complications died in the hospital (11.1% of those aged 80-84 years and 14.3% aged > 85 years). Among patients aged > 85 years, 38.1% required transfusions. CONCLUSION: Older patients should receive appropriate functional preparation before the intervention, and when the risks of the intervention outweigh the potential benefits, a nonsurgical approach may be preferable.