Flood hazard potential evaluation using decision tree state-of-the-art models.

Floods occur frequently in Romania and throughout the world and are one of the most devastating natural disasters that impact people's lives. Therefore, in order to reduce the potential damages, an accurate identification of surfaces susceptible to flood phenomena is mandatory. In this regard, the quantitative calculation of flood susceptibility has become a very popular practice in the scientific research. With the development of modern computerized methods such as geographic information system and machine learning models, and as a result of the possibility of combining them, the determination of areas susceptible to floods has become increasingly accurate, and the algorithms used are increasingly varied. Some of the most used and highly accurate machine learning algorithms are the decision tree models. Therefore, in the present study focusing on flood susceptibility zonation mapping in the Trotus River basin, the following algorithms were applied: forest by penalizing attribute-weights of evidence (forest-PA-WOE), best first decision tree-WOE, alternating decision tree-WOE, and logistic regression-WOE. The best performant, characterized by a maximum accuracy of 0.981, proved to be forest-PA-WOE, whereas in terms of flood exposure, an area of over 16.22% of the Trotus basin is exposed to high and very high floods susceptibility. The performances applied models in the present work are higher than the models applied in the previous studies in the same study area. Moreover, it should be noted that the accuracy of the models is similar with the accuracies of the decision tree models achieved in the studies focused on other areas across the world. Therefore, we can state that the models applied in the present research can be successfully used in by the researchers in other case studies. The findings of this research may substantially map the flood risk areas and further aid watershed managers in limiting and remediating flood damage in the data-scarce regions. Moreover, the results of this study can be a very useful for the hazard management and planning authorities.

A review of recent advances and future prospects in calculation of reference evapotranspiration in Bangladesh using soft computing models.

Evapotranspiration (ETo) is a complex and non-linear hydrological process with a significant impact on efficient water resource planning and long-term management. The Penman-Monteith (PM) equation method, developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), represents an advancement over earlier approaches for estimating ETo. Eto though reliable, faces limitations due to the requirement for climatological data not always available at specific locations. To address this, researchers have explored soft computing (SC) models as alternatives to conventional methods, known for their exceptional accuracy across disciplines. This critical review aims to enhance understanding of cutting-edge SC frameworks for ETo estimation, highlighting advancements in evolutionary models, hybrid and ensemble approaches, and optimization strategies. Recent applications of SC in various climatic zones in Bangladesh are evaluated, with the order of preference being ANFIS > Bi-LSTM > RT > DENFIS > SVR-PSOGWO > PSO-HFS due to their consistently high accuracy (RMSE and R2). This review introduces a benchmark for incorporating evolutionary computation algorithms (EC) into ETo modeling. Each subsection addresses the strengths and weaknesses of known SC models, offering valuable insights. The review serves as a valuable resource for experienced water resource engineers and hydrologists, both domestically and internationally, providing comprehensive SC modeling studies for ETo forecasting. Furthermore, it provides an improved water resources monitoring and management plans.

Receptor model-based source-specific health risks of toxic metal(loid)s in coal basin-induced agricultural soil in northwest Bangladesh.

Toxic metal(loid)s (TMLs) in agricultural soils cause detrimental effects on ecosystem and human health. Therefore, source-specific health risk apportionment is very crucial for the prevention and control of TMLs in agricultural soils. In this study, 149 surface soil samples were taken from a coal mining region in northwest Bangladesh and analyzed for 12 TMLs (Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Zn, Cu, As, Se, and Hg). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) and absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) receptor models were employed to quantify the pollution sources of soil TMLs. Both models identified five possible sources of pollution: agrochemical practice, industrial emissions, coal-power-plant, geogenic source, and atmospheric deposition, while the contribution rates of each source were calculated as 28.2%, 17.2%, 19.3%, 19% and 16.3% in APCS-MLR, 22.2%, 13.4%, 24.3%, 15.1% and 25.1% in PMF, respectively. Agrochemical practice was the major source of non-carcinogenic risk (NCR) (adults: 32.37%, children: 31.54%), while atmospheric deposition was the highest source of carcinogenic risk (CR) (adults: 48.83%, children: 50.11%). NCR and CR values for adults were slightly higher than for children. However, the trends in NCR and CR between children and adults were similar. As a result, among the sources of pollution, agrochemical practices and atmospheric deposition have been identified as the primary sources of soil TMLs, so prevention and control strategies should be applied primarily for these pollution sources in order to protect human health.

Flood susceptibility evaluation through deep learning optimizer ensembles and GIS techniques.

It is difficult to predict and model with an accurate model the floods, that are one of the most destructive risks across the earth's surface. The main objective of this research is to show the prediction power of three ensemble algorithms with respect to flood susceptibility estimation. These algorithms are: Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Alternating Decision Tree - Frequency Ratio (ICO-ADT-FR), Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Deep Learning Neural Network - Frequency Ratio (ICO-DLNN-FR) and Iterative Classifier Optimizer - Multilayer Perceptron - Frequency Ratio (ICO-MLP-FR). The first stage of the manuscript consisted of the collection and processing of the geodatabase needed in the present study. The geodatabase comprises a number of 14 flood predictors and 132 known flood locations. The Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) method was used in order to assess the prediction capacity of the 14 predictors in terms of flood susceptibility estimation. The training and validation of the three ensemble models constitute the next stage of the scientific workflow. Several statistical metrics and ROC curve method were involved in the evaluation of the model's performance and accuracy. According to ROC curves all the models achieved high performances since their AUC had values above 0.89. ICO-DLNN-FR proved to be the most accurate model (AUC = 0.959). The outcomes of the study can be used to guide future flood risk management and sustainable land-use planning in the designated area.

Flash-Flood Potential Mapping Using Deep Learning, Alternating Decision Trees and Data Provided by Remote Sensing Sensors.

There is an evident increase in the importance that remote sensing sensors play in the monitoring and evaluation of natural hazards susceptibility and risk. The present study aims to assess the flash-flood potential values, in a small catchment from Romania, using information provided remote sensing sensors and Geographic Informational Systems (GIS) databases which were involved as input data into a number of four ensemble models. In a first phase, with the help of high-resolution satellite images from the Google Earth application, 481 points affected by torrential processes were acquired, another 481 points being randomly positioned in areas without torrential processes. Seventy percent of the dataset was kept as training data, while the other 30% was assigned to validating sample. Further, in order to train the machine learning models, information regarding the 10 flash-flood predictors was extracted in the training sample locations. Finally, the following four ensembles were used to calculate the Flash-Flood Potential Index across the Bâsca Chiojdului river basin: Deep Learning Neural Network-Frequency Ratio (DLNN-FR), Deep Learning Neural Network-Weights of Evidence (DLNN-WOE), Alternating Decision Trees-Frequency Ratio (ADT-FR) and Alternating Decision Trees-Weights of Evidence (ADT-WOE). The model's performances were assessed using several statistical metrics. Thus, in terms of Sensitivity, the highest value of 0.985 was achieved by the DLNN-FR model, meanwhile the lowest one (0.866) was assigned to ADT-FR ensemble. Moreover, the specificity analysis shows that the highest value (0.991) was attributed to DLNN-WOE algorithm, while the lowest value (0.892) was achieved by ADT-FR. During the training procedure, the models achieved overall accuracies between 0.878 (ADT-FR) and 0.985 (DLNN-WOE). K-index shows again that the most performant model was DLNN-WOE (0.97). The Flash-Flood Potential Index (FFPI) values revealed that the surfaces with high and very high flash-flood susceptibility cover between 46.57% (DLNN-FR) and 59.38% (ADT-FR) of the study zone. The use of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for results validation highlights the fact that FFPIDLNN-WOE is characterized by the most precise results with an Area Under Curve of 0.96.

Flood susceptibility mapping by integrating frequency ratio and index of entropy with multilayer perceptron and classification and regression tree.

Episodes of frequent flooding continue to increase, often causing serious damage and tools to identify areas affected by such disasters have become indispensable in today's society. Using the latest techniques can make very accurate flood predictions. In this study, we introduce four effective methods to evaluate the flood susceptibility of Poyang County, in China, by integrating two independent models of frequency ratio and index of entropy with multilayer perceptron and classification and regression tree models. The flood locations of the study area were identified through the flood inventory process, and 12 flood conditioning factors were used in the training and validation processes. According to the results of the linear support vector machine, elevation, slope angle, and soil have the highest predictive ability. The experimental results of the four hybrid models demonstrate that between 20% and 50% of the study area has high and very high flood susceptibility. The multilayer perceptron-probability density hybrid model is the most effective among the six comparative methods.

Novel hybrid models between bivariate statistics, artificial neural networks and boosting algorithms for flood susceptibility assessment.

Across the world, the flood magnitude is expected to increase as well as the damage caused by their occurrence. In this case, the prediction of areas which are highly susceptible to these phenomena becomes very important for the authorities. The present study is focused on the evaluation of flood potential within Trotuș river basin in Romania using six ensemble models created by the combination of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Certainty Factor (CF) and Weights of Evidence (WOE) on one hand, and Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) on the other hand. A number of 12 flood predictors, 172 flood locations and 172 non-flood locations were used. A percentage of 70% of flood and non-flood locations were used as input in models. From the input data, 70% were used as training sample and 30% as validating sample. The highest accuracy was obtained by the MLP-CF model in terms of both training (0.899) and testing (0.889) samples. A percentage between 21.88% and 36.33% of study area is covered with high and very high flood potential. The results validation, performed through the ROC Curve method, highlights that the MLP-CF model provided the most accurate results.

Flood susceptibility mapping in Dingnan County (China) using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with biogeography based optimization and imperialistic competitive algorithm.

Flooding is one of the most significant environmental challenges and can easily cause fatal incidents and economic losses. Flood reduction is costly and time-consuming task; so it is necessary to accurately detect flood susceptible areas. This work presents an effective flood susceptibility mapping framework by involving an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with two metaheuristic methods of biogeography based optimization (BBO) and imperialistic competitive algorithm (ICA). A total of 13 flood influencing factors, including slope, altitude, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, distance to river, landuse, normalized difference vegetation index, lithology, rainfall and soil type, were used in the proposed framework for spatial modeling and Dingnan County in China was selected for the application of the proposed methods due to data availability. There are 115 flood occurrences in the study area which were randomly separated into training (70% of the total) and verification (30%) sets. To perform the proposed framework, the step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis algorithm is first used to evaluate the correlation between influencing factors and floods. Then, two ensemble methods of ANFIS-BBO and ANFIS-ICA are constructed for spatial prediction and producing flood susceptibility maps. Finally, these resultant maps are assessed in terms of several statistical and error measures, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC curve (AUC), root-mean-square error (RMSE). The experimental results demonstrated that the two ensemble methods were more effective than ANFIS in the study area. For instance, the predictive AUC values of 0.8407, 0.9045 and 0.9044 were achieved by the methods of ANFIS, ANFIS-BBO and ANFIS-ICA, respectively. Moreover, the RMSE values for ANFIS, ANFIS-BBO and ANFIS-ICA using the verification set were 0.3100, 0.2730 and 0.2700, respectively. In addition, as regards ANFIS-BBO and ANFIS-ICA, a total areas of 39.30% and 35.39% were classified as highly susceptible to flooding. Therefore, the proposed ensemble framework can be used for flood susceptibility mapping in other sites with similar geo-environmental characteristics for taking measures to manage and prevent flood damages.

Hydrogeochemical properties of groundwater and associated human health hazards in coastal multiaquifers of India.

Due to the scarcity of water supplies, coastal groundwater quality most importantly influences sustainable development in the coastal region. Rising groundwater pollution through heavy metal contamination is an intense health hazard and environmental concern worldwide. This study shows that 27%, 32%, and 10% of the total area come under the categories very high, high, and very low human health hazard index (HHHI) accordingly. This area's water quality is also much polluted; the study shows approximately 1% has very good water quality. High concentrations of Fe, As, TDS, Mg2+, Na, and Cl- are relatively noticed in the portion of the western part of this district. The concentration of heavy metals in coastal aquifers influences the groundwater pollution of that region. The average heavy metal concentration in this region is 0.20 mg/l (As) and 1.160 mg/l (TDS). The groundwater quality and hydrogeochemical properties are determined through the Piper diagram. The study stated that TDS, Cl- (mg/l), and Na+ (mg/l) are the most regulatory issues of vulnerability. In the present study region, a huge number of alkaline substances are present resulting in the water being unfit for drinking purposes. Lastly, it is clear from the study's findings that multiple risks exist there like As, TDS, Cl-, and other hydrochemical parameters in the groundwater. The proposed approach applied in this research work may be a pivotal tool for predicting groundwater vulnerability in other regions.

Wetland health, water quality, and resident perceptions of declining ecosystem services: a case study of Mount Abu, Rajasthan, India.

Ecosystem services provided by wetlands are essential for communities living near wetlands, especially in an underdeveloped semi-arid landscape. The land use land cover changes and ecosystem degradation and water quality change over the past few decades have had immense effects on declining wetland ecosystem services. With the degradation, it is exerting superfluous effects on wetland communities including loss of livelihood, and decline in other wetland services like fishing, aquaculture, fuelwood, fodder, and many more. The present study attempts to assess the changing nature of wetland health, water quality, and declining ecosystem services of Mount Abu wetlands in Rajasthan, India. For assessing the change of wetland extent, we have used the remote sensing-based data for preparation of land use land cover change from 1992 to 2020. The water samples have been collected from the wetland, and different biophysical parameters of the water have been tested in the laboratory. A questionnaire-based household survey has been conducted to understand the perception of the wetland communities on the loss of ecosystem services over three decades. Further, a correlation and cluster assessment has been conducted to understand the degradation of wetland health in the selected wetlands. The study results indicated deteriorating conditions of wetland health and declining ecosystem services in the study area over the time periods. The land use land cover change analysis indicated a decrease in the spatial extent of the wetlands in the study area. Wetland communities are being affected due to the degradation of wetland health. The study recommended executing a wetland management plan for long-term conservation and livelihood management for the Mount Abu wetlands and communities.

Development of geo-environmental factors controlled flash flood hazard map for emergency relief operation in complex hydro-geomorphic environment of tropical river, India.

The occurrences of flash floods in sub-tropical climatic regions like India are ubiquitous phenomena, particularly during the monsoon season. This type of flood occurs within a short period of time and makes it distinctive from all-natural hazards, which causes huge loss of economy and causalities of life. Therefore, its prediction is crucial and one of the challenging tasks for researchers to mitigate this sustainably. Furthermore, identifying flash flood susceptible regions is the foremost responsibility in managing flood events, which helps the local administration take emergency relief operations in flood-prone regions. In September 2021, the flood in the Gandheswari river basin was the most severe compared to the past decade. The occurrences of flash floods in the lower course of the Gandheswari river has been affected riparian habitats rigorously. Thus, in this study, we proposed the bivariate logistic regression (LR) method to delineate this river basin's flash flood hazard (FFH) map. Here, sixteen flood conditioning factors were selected for modeling purposes with the help of a multicollinearity test, and a total of 71 flood points were identified from the historical dataset. The produced result was validated by six distinctive validating techniques, including receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and F-score. These techniques have shown that present modeling has high predictive performance in both training and testing dataset with the values of ROC (training-0.928, validating-0.892), specificity (training-0.911, validating-0.882), sensitivity (training-0.915, validating-0.885), PPV (training-0.912, validating-0.874), NPV (training-0.91, validating-0.875), and F-score (training-0.92, validating-0.89). Therefore, the proposed method in this and the outcome result will help the disaster manager make proper decisions to mitigate the hazardous situation and take sustainable emergency relief operations.

Flood vulnerability of a few areas in the foothills of the Western Ghats: a comparison of AHP and F-AHP models.

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural catastrophes that can strike anywhere in the world. With the recent, but frequent catastrophic flood events that occurred in the narrow stretch of land in southern India, sandwiched between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, this study was initiated. The goal of this research is to identify flood-vulnerable zones in this area by making the local self governing bodies as the mapping unit. This study also assessed the predictive accuracy of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) models. A total of 20 indicators (nine physical-environmental variables and 11 socio-economic variables) have been considered for the vulnerability modelling. Flood-vulnerability maps, created using remotely sensed satellite data and geographic information systems, was divided into five zones. AHP and F-AHP flood vulnerability models identified 12.29% and 11.81% of the area as very high-vulnerable zones, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to validate these flood vulnerability maps. The flood vulnerable maps, created using the AHP and F-AHP methods, were found to be outstanding based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. This demonstrates the effectiveness of these two models. The results of AUC for the AHP and F-AHP models were 0.946 and 0.943, respectively, articulating that the AHP model is more efficient than its chosen counterpart in demarcating the flood vulnerable zones. Decision-makers and land-use planners will find the generated vulnerable zone maps useful, particularly in implementing flood mitigation plans.

Pollution trends and ecological risks of heavy metal(loid)s in coastal zones of Bangladesh: A chemometric review.

Heavy metal(loid)s inputs contribute to human and environmental stresses in the coastal zones of Bangladesh. Several studies have been conducted on metal(loid)s pollution in sediment, soil, and water in the coastal zones. However, they are sporadic, and no attempt has been made in coastal zones from the standpoint of chemometric review. The current work aims to provide a chemometric assessment of the pollution trend of metal(loid)s, namely arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and nickel (Ni) in sediments, soils, and water across the coastal zones from 2015 to 2022. The findings showed that 45.7, 15.2, and 39.1 % of studies on heavy metal(loid)s were concentrated in the eastern, central, and western zones of coastal Bangladesh. The obtained data were further modeled using chemometric approaches, such as the contamination factor, pollution load index, geoaccumulation index, degree of contamination, Nemerow's pollution index, and ecological risk index. The results revealed that metal(loid)s, primarily Cd, have severely polluted the sediments (contamination factor, CF = 5.20) and soils (CF = 9.35) of coastal regions. Water was moderately polluted (Nemerow's pollution index, PN=5.22 ± 6.26) in the coastal area. The eastern zone was the most polluted compared to other zones, except for a few observations in the central zone. The overall ecological risks posed by metal(loid)s highlighted the significant ecological risk in sediments (ecological risk index, RI = 123.50) and soils (RI = 238.93) along the eastern coast. The coastal zone may have higher pollution levels due to the proximity of industrial effluent, residential sewage discharge, agricultural activities, sea transport, metallurgical industries, shipbreaking and recycling operations, and seaport activities, which are the major sources of metal(loid)s. This study will provide useful information to the relevant authorities and serve as the foundation for future management and policy decisions to reduce metal(loid) pollution in the coastal zones of southern Bangladesh.

Predicting the sorption efficiency of heavy metal based on the biochar characteristics, metal sources, and environmental conditions using various novel hybrid machine learning models.

Heavy metals in water and wastewater are taken into account as one of the most hazardous environmental issues that significantly impact human health. The use of biochar systems with different materials helped significantly remove heavy metals in the water, especially wastewater treatment systems. Nevertheless, heavy metal's sorption efficiency on the biochar systems is highly dependent on the biochar characteristics, metal sources, and environmental conditions. Therefore, this study implicates the feasibility of biochar systems in the heavy metal sorption in water/wastewater and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) models in investigating efficiency sorption of heavy metal on biochar. Accordingly, this work investigated and proposed 20 artificial intelligent models for forecasting the sorption efficiency of heavy metal onto biochar based on five machine learning algorithms and bagging technique (BA). Accordingly, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), M5Tree, and Gaussian process (GP) algorithms were used as the key algorithms for the aim of this study. Subsequently, the individual models were bagged with each other to generate new ensemble models. Finally, 20 intelligent models were developed and evaluated, including SVM, RF, M5Tree, GP, ANN, BA-SVM, BA-RF, BA-M5Tree, BA-GP, BA-ANN, SVM-RF, SVM-M5Tree, SVM-GP, SVM-ANN, RF-M5Tree, RF-GP, RF-ANN, M5Tree-GP, M5Tree-ANN, GP-ANN. Of those, the hybrid models (i.e., BA-SVM, BA-RF, BA-M5Tree, BA-GP, BA-ANN, SVM-RF, SVM-M5Tree, SVM-GP, SVM-ANN, RF-M5Tree, RF-GP, RF-ANN, M5Tree-GP, M5Tree-ANN, GP-ANN) are introduced as the novelty of this study for estimating the heavy metal's sorption efficiency on the biochar systems. Also, the biochar characteristics, metal sources, and environmental conditions were comprehensively assessed and used, and they are considered as a novelty of the study as well. For this aim, a dataset of sorption efficiency of heavy metal was collected and processed with 353 experimental tests. Various performance indexes were applied to evaluate the models, such as RMSE, R2, MAE, color intensity, Taylor diagram, box and whiskers plots. This study's findings revealed that AI models could predict heavy metal's sorption efficiency onto biochar with high reliability, and the efficiency of the ensemble models is higher than those of individual models. The results also reported that the SVM-ANN ensemble model is the most superior model among 20 developed models. The predictive model proposed that heavy metal's efficiency sorption on biochar can be accurately forecasted and early warning for the water pollution by heavy metal.

Identification of areas prone to flash-flood phenomena using multiple-criteria decision-making, bivariate statistics, machine learning and their ensembles.

Taking into account the exponential growth of the number of flash-floods events worldwide, the detection of areas prone to these natural hazards is one of the main activities taken in order to mitigate the negative effects of these risk phenomena. In the present paper, new modeling approaches, Alternating Decision Tree (ADT) integrated with IOE (ADT-IOE) and ADT integrated with AHP (ADT-AHP), were proposed for flash-flood susceptibility mapping across the Suha river catchment (Romania). Besides, two stand-alone methods, Index of Entropy (IOE) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), were also investigated. For this regard, 111 torrential points and 111 non-torrential points along with 8 flash-flood conditioning factors have been involved in the training process of the four models. The quality of the flash-flood models was checked by using the ROC Curve method, classification accuracy (CLA), and Kappa index. The result shows that the two ensemble models, the ADT-IOE (AUC = 0.972, CLC = 86.37%, Kappa statistics = 0.727) and the ADT-AHP (AUC = 0.926, CLA = 87.88%, Kappa statistics = 0.758), have high prediction performance and outperform the other models. Therefore, ADT-IOE and ADT-AHP are new and promising tools for flash-flood susceptibility modeling.

Comparative assessment of the flash-flood potential within small mountain catchments using bivariate statistics and their novel hybrid integration with machine learning models.

The present study is carried out in the context of the continuous increase, worldwide, of the number of flash-floods phenomena. Also, there is an evident increase of the size of the damages caused by these hazards. Bâsca Chiojdului River Basin is one of the most affected areas in Romania by flash-flood phenomena. Therefore, Flash-Flood Potential Index (FFPI) was defined and calculated across the Bâsca Chiojdului river basin by using one bivariate statistical method (Statistical Index) and its novel ensemble with the following machine learning models: Logistic Regression, Classification and Regression Trees, Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree CART. In a first stage, the areas with torrentiality were digitized based on orthophotomaps and field observations. These regions, together with an equal number of non-torrential pixels, were further divided into training surfaces (70%) and validating surfaces (30%). The next step of the analysis consisted of the selection of flash-flood conditioning factors based on the multicollinearity investigation and predictive ability estimation through Information Gain method. Eight factors, from a total of ten flash-floods predictors, were selected in order to be included in the FFPI calculation process. By applying the models represented by Statistical Index and its ensemble with the machine learning algorithms, the weight of each conditioning factor and of each factor class/category in the FFPI equations was established. Once the weight values were derived, the FFPI values across the Bâsca Chiojdului river basin were calculated by overlaying the flash-flood predictors in GIS environment. According to the results obtained, the central part of Bâsca Chiojdului river basin has the highest susceptibility to flash-flood phenomena. Thus, around 30% of the study site has high and very high values of FFPI. The results validation was carried out by applying the Prediction Rate and Success Rate. The methods revealed the fact that the Multilayer Perceptron - Statistical Index (MLP-SI) ensemble has the highest efficiency among the 3 methods.

A novel deep learning neural network approach for predicting flash flood susceptibility: A case study at a high frequency tropical storm area.

This research proposes and evaluates a new approach for flash flood susceptibility mapping based on Deep Learning Neural Network (DLNN)) algorithm, with a case study at a high-frequency tropical storm area in the northwest mountainous region of Vietnam. Accordingly, a DLNN structure with 192 neurons in 3 hidden layers was proposed to construct an inference model that predicts different levels of susceptibility to flash flood. The Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) and the sigmoid were selected as the activate function and the transfer function, respectively, whereas the Adaptive moment estimation (Adam) was used to update and optimize the weights of the DLNN. A database for the study area, which includes factors of elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, stream density, NDVI, soil type, lithology, and rainfall, was established to train and validate the proposed model. Feature selection was carried out for these factors using the Information gain ratio. The results show that the DLNN attains a good prediction accuracy with Classification Accuracy Rate = 92.05%, Positive Predictive Value = 94.55% and Negative Predictive Value = 89.55%. Compared to benchmarks, Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network and Support Vector Machine, the DLNN performs better; therefore, it could be concluded that the proposed hybridization of GIS and deep learning can be a promising tool to assist the government authorities and involving parties in flash flood mitigation and land-use planning.

Flash-Flood Potential assessment in the upper and middle sector of Prahova river catchment (Romania). A comparative approach between four hybrid models.

An accurate assessment of Flash-Flood Potential for certain areas is mandatory for the improvement of flash-flood forecast and warnings. The main aim of the present study is represented by the calculation of Flash-Flood Potential Index within the upper and the middle sector of Prahova river catchment (Romania) by using 4 hybrid models: Logistic Regression-Frequency Ratio (LR-FR) model, Logistic Regression-Weights of Evidence (LR-WoE) model, Support Vector Machine-Frequency Ratio (SVM-FR) model and Support Vector Machine-Weights of Evidence (SVM-WoE). The identification of areas affected by torrential phenomena represents the first step performed in the present research. These areas with a total surface of 260 km2 were divided into training areas (70%) and validating areas (30%). By the mean of Linear Support Vector Machine (LSVM) model, 10 flash-flood conditioning factors were selected and further used for the Flash-Flood Potential assessment. Based on the spatial relationship between areas affected by torrential phenomena and flash-floods conditioning factors characteristics, the FR and WoE coefficients were calculated. In order to be integrated into Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine (RBF) analysis, these values were standardized. According to the results of the 4 hybrid models used for FFPI calculation, the high and very high Flash-Flood Potential are spread over 33% of the study area. The model performance assessment and results validation were carried out by the mean of the three different methods: i) relative frequency distribution of torrential phenomena pixels within FFPI classes; ii) ROC Curve (Success Rate and Prediction Rate) and AUC value; iii) statistical measures represented by Sensitivity, Specificity and Accuracy.

Spatial prediction of flood potential using new ensembles of bivariate statistics and artificial intelligence: A case study at the Putna river catchment of Romania.

Flash-flood is considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world, which is difficult to accurately model and predict. The objective of the present research is to propose new ensembles of bivariate statistics and artificial intelligences and to introduce a comprehensive methodology for predicting flood susceptibility. The Putna river catchment of Romania is selected as a case study. In this regard, a total of six ensemble models were proposed and verified: Multilayer Perceptron neural network-Frequency Ratio (MLP-FR), Multilayer Perceptron neural network -Weights of Evidence (MLP-WOE), Rotation Forest-Frequency Ratio (RF-FR), Rotation Forest-Weights of Evidence (RF-WOE), Classification and Regression Tree-Frequency Ratio (CART-FR), and Classification and Regression Tree-Weights of Evidence (CART-WOE). In a first step, a geospatial database was created for the study area. This database includes 132 flood locations and 14 conditioning factors (lithology, slope angle, plan curvature, hydrological soil group, topographic wetness index, landuse, convergence index, elevation, distance from river, profile curvature, rainfall, aspect, stream power index, and topographic position index). In the next step, the Information Gain Ratio was used to evaluate the predictive ability of these factors. Subsequently, the database was used to train and validate the six ensemble models. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the curve (AUC), and statistical measures were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The results show that the prediction capability of the proposed ensemble models varied from 86.8% (the RF-FR model) to 93.9% (the RF-WOE model). These values indicate a high prediction performance for all the models. Therefore, we can state that the proposed ensemble models are new reliable tools which can be used for flood susceptibility modelling.