The magnitude and timing of recalled immunity after breakthrough infection is shaped by SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 protects from infection and improves clinical outcomes in breakthrough infections, likely reflecting residual vaccine-elicited immunity and recall of immunological memory. Here, we define the early kinetics of spike-specific humoral and cellular immunity after vaccination of seropositive individuals and after Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Early longitudinal sampling revealed the timing and magnitude of recall, with the phenotypic activation of B cells preceding an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. While vaccination of seropositive individuals resulted in robust recall of humoral and T cell immunity, recall of vaccine-elicited responses was delayed and variable in magnitude during breakthrough infections and depended on the infecting variant of concern. While the delayed kinetics of immune recall provides a potential mechanism for the lack of early control of viral replication, the recall of antibodies coincided with viral clearance and likely underpins the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19.

Omicron extensively but incompletely escapes Pfizer BNT162b2 neutralization.

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529), first identified in Botswana and South Africa, may compromise vaccine effectiveness and lead to re-infections1. Here we investigated Omicron escape from neutralization by antibodies from South African individuals vaccinated with Pfizer BNT162b2. We used blood samples taken soon after vaccination from individuals who were vaccinated and previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinated with no evidence of previous infection. We isolated and sequence-confirmed live Omicron virus from an infected person and observed that Omicron requires the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to infect cells. We compared plasma neutralization of Omicron relative to an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain and found that neutralization of ancestral virus was much higher in infected and vaccinated individuals compared with the vaccinated-only participants. However, both groups showed a 22-fold reduction in vaccine-elicited neutralization by the Omicron variant. Participants who were vaccinated and had previously been infected exhibited residual neutralization of Omicron similar to the level of neutralization of the ancestral virus observed in the vaccination-only group. These data support the notion that reasonable protection against Omicron may be maintained using vaccination approaches.

Preferential selection of viral escape mutants by CD8+ T cell 'sieving' of SIV reactivation from latency.

HIV rapidly rebounds after interruption of antiretroviral therapy (ART). HIV-specific CD8+ T cells may act to prevent early events in viral reactivation. However, the presence of viral immune escape mutations may limit the effect of CD8+ T cells on viral rebound. Here, we studied the impact of CD8 immune pressure on post-treatment rebound of barcoded SIVmac293M in 14 Mamu-A*01 positive rhesus macaques that initiated ART on day 14, and subsequently underwent two analytic treatment interruptions (ATIs). Rebound following the first ATI (seven months after ART initiation) was dominated by virus that retained the wild-type sequence at the Mamu-A*01 restricted Tat-SL8 epitope. By the end of the two-month treatment interruption, the replicating virus was predominantly escaped at the Tat-SL8 epitope. Animals reinitiated ART for 3 months prior to a second treatment interruption. Time-to-rebound and viral reactivation rate were significantly slower during the second treatment interruption compared to the first. Tat-SL8 escape mutants dominated early rebound during the second treatment interruption, despite the dominance of wild-type virus in the proviral reservoir. Furthermore, the escape mutations detected early in the second treatment interruption were well predicted by those replicating at the end of the first, indicating that escape mutant virus in the second interruption originated from the latent reservoir as opposed to evolving de novo post rebound. SL8-specific CD8+ T cell levels in blood prior to the second interruption were marginally, but significantly, higher (median 0.73% vs 0.60%, p = 0.016). CD8+ T cell depletion approximately 95 days after the second treatment interruption led to the reappearance of wild-type virus. This work suggests that CD8+ T cells can actively suppress the rebound of wild-type virus, leading to the dominance of escape mutant virus after treatment interruption.

Nanobody cocktails potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 D614G N501Y variant and protect mice.

Neutralizing antibodies are important for immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and as therapeutics for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Here, we identified high-affinity nanobodies from alpacas immunized with coronavirus spike and receptor-binding domains (RBD) that disrupted RBD engagement with the human receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and potently neutralized SARS-CoV-2. Epitope mapping, X-ray crystallography, and cryo-electron microscopy revealed two distinct antigenic sites and showed two neutralizing nanobodies from different epitope classes bound simultaneously to the spike trimer. Nanobody-Fc fusions of the four most potent nanobodies blocked ACE2 engagement with RBD variants present in human populations and potently neutralized both wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and the N501Y D614G variant at concentrations as low as 0.1 nM. Prophylactic administration of either single nanobody-Fc or as mixtures reduced viral loads by up to 104-fold in mice infected with the N501Y D614G SARS-CoV-2 virus. These results suggest a role for nanobody-Fc fusions as prophylactic agents against SARS-CoV-2.

Correlates of Protection, Thresholds of Protection, and Immunobridging among Persons with SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Several studies have shown that neutralizing antibody levels correlate with immune protection from COVID-19 and have estimated the relationship between neutralizing antibodies and protection. However, results of these studies vary in terms of estimates of the level of neutralizing antibodies required for protection. By normalizing antibody titers, we found that study results converge on a consistent relationship between antibody levels and protection from COVID-19. This finding can be useful for planning future vaccine use, determining population immunity, and reducing the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of parasites and are thought to 'seed' infection in the next transmission season. METHODS: Dry season carriers and their role in the subsequent transmission season are characterized using a combination of mathematical simulations and data analysis of previously described data from a longitudinal study in Mali of individuals aged 3 months-12 years (n = 579). RESULTS: Simulating the life-history of individuals experiencing repeated exposure to infection predicts that dry season carriage is more likely in the oldest, most exposed and most immune individuals. This hypothesis is supported by the data from Mali, which shows that carriers are significantly older, experience a higher biting rate at the beginning of the transmission season and develop clinical malaria later than non-carriers. Further, since the most exposed individuals in a community are most likely to be dry season carriers, this is predicted to enable a more than twofold faster spread of parasites into the mosquito population at the start of the subsequent wet season. CONCLUSIONS: Carriage of malaria parasites over the months-long dry season in Mali is most likely in the older, more exposed and more immune children. These children may act as super-spreaders facilitating the fast spread of parasites at the beginning of the next transmission season.

Balancing Statistical Power and Risk in HIV Cure Clinical Trial Design.

BACKGROUND: Analytical treatment interruptions (ATI) are pauses of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the context of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure trials. They are the gold standard in determining if interventions being tested can achieve sustained virological control in the absence of ART. However, withholding ART comes with risks and discomforts to trial participant. We used mathematical models to explore how ATI study design can be improved to maximize statistical power, while minimizing risks to participants. METHODS: Using previously observed dynamics of time to viral rebound (TVR) post-ATI, we modelled estimates for optimal sample size, frequency, and ATI duration required to detect a significant difference in the TVR between control and intervention groups. Groups were compared using a log-rank test, and analytical and stochastic techniques. RESULTS: In placebo-controlled TVR studies, 120 participants are required in each arm to detect 30% difference in frequency of viral reactivation at 80% power. There was little statistical advantage to measuring viral load more frequently than weekly, or interrupting ART beyond 5 weeks in a TVR study. CONCLUSIONS: Current TVR HIV cure studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant changes in frequency of viral reactivation. Alternate study designs can improve the statistical power of ATI trials.

Relating In Vitro Neutralization Level and Protection in the CVnCoV (CUREVAC) Trial.

The vaccine candidate CVnCoV (CUREVAC) showed surprisingly low efficacy in a recent phase 3 trial compared with other messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines. Here we show that the low efficacy follows from the dose used and the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and is predicted by the neutralizing antibody response induced by the vaccine.

Similarly efficacious anti-malarial drugs SJ733 and pyronaridine differ in their ability to remove circulating parasites in mice.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been a mainstay for malaria prevention and treatment. However, emergence of drug resistance has incentivised development of new drugs. Defining the kinetics with which circulating parasitized red blood cells (pRBC) are lost after drug treatment, referred to as the "parasite clearance curve", has been critical for assessing drug efficacy; yet underlying mechanisms remain partly unresolved. The clearance curve may be shaped both by the rate at which drugs kill parasites, and the rate at which drug-affected parasites are removed from circulation. METHODS: In this context, two anti-malarials, SJ733, and an ACT partner drug, pyronaridine were compared against sodium artesunate in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei (strain ANKA). To measure each compound's capacity for pRBC removal in vivo, flow cytometric monitoring of a single cohort of fluorescently-labelled pRBC was employed, and combined with ex vivo parasite culture to assess parasite maturation and replication. RESULTS: These three compounds were found to be similarly efficacious in controlling established infection by reducing overall parasitaemia. While sodium artesunate acted relatively consistently across the life-stages, single-dose SJ733 elicited a biphasic effect, triggering rapid, partly phagocyte-dependent removal of trophozoites and schizonts, followed by arrest of residual ring-stages. In contrast, pyronaridine abrogated maturation of younger parasites, with less pronounced effects on mature parasites, while modestly increasing pRBC removal. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-malarials SJ733 and pyronaridine, though similarly efficacious in reducing overall parasitaemia in mice, differed markedly in their capacity to arrest replication and remove pRBC from circulation. Thus, similar parasite clearance curves can result for anti-malarials with distinct capacities to inhibit, kill and clear parasites.

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria.

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

Plasmodium-specific antibodies block in vivo parasite growth without clearing infected red blood cells.

Plasmodium parasites invade and multiply inside red blood cells (RBC). Through a cycle of maturation, asexual replication, rupture and release of multiple infective merozoites, parasitised RBC (pRBC) can reach very high numbers in vivo, a process that correlates with disease severity in humans and experimental animals. Thus, controlling pRBC numbers can prevent or ameliorate malaria. In endemic regions, circulating parasite-specific antibodies associate with immunity to high parasitemia. Although in vitro assays reveal that protective antibodies could control pRBC via multiple mechanisms, in vivo assessment of antibody function remains challenging. Here, we employed two mouse models of antibody-mediated immunity to malaria, P. yoelii 17XNL and P. chabaudi chabaudi AS infection, to study infection-induced, parasite-specific antibody function in vivo. By tracking a single generation of pRBC, we tested the hypothesis that parasite-specific antibodies accelerate pRBC clearance. Though strongly protective against homologous re-challenge, parasite-specific IgG did not alter the rate of pRBC clearance, even in the presence of ongoing, systemic inflammation. Instead, antibodies prevented parasites progressing from one generation of RBC to the next. In vivo depletion studies using clodronate liposomes or cobra venom factor, suggested that optimal antibody function required splenic macrophages and dendritic cells, but not complement C3/C5-mediated killing. Finally, parasite-specific IgG bound poorly to the surface of pRBC, yet strongly to structures likely exposed by the rupture of mature schizonts. Thus, in our models of humoral immunity to malaria, infection-induced antibodies did not accelerate pRBC clearance, and instead co-operated with splenic phagocytes to block subsequent generations of pRBC.

HIV Reactivation after Partial Protection by Neutralizing Antibodies.

It is widely thought that generating broadly neutralizing anti-HIV antibodies (BnAbs) will protect humans against HIV, given promising data from in vitro experiments and in vivo macaque studies. The primary action of BnAbs is preventing cell-free virus from entering cells. Recent in vitro and macaque data suggest that BnAbs are less potent against cell-associated virus exposure. We speculate that BnAb-based suppression of HIV transmission, particularly if mediated by cell-cell transmission, may result in some exposed subjects carrying a form of latent (or 'occult') HIV infection. Such largely hidden HIV infections may subsequently reactivate when BnAb levels decline. This concept has implications for the achievement of long-term sterilizing immunity to HIV.

Impact of fluctuation in frequency of human immunodeficiency virus/simian immunodeficiency virus reactivation during antiretroviral therapy interruption.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) provides effective control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication and maintains viral loads of HIV at undetectable levels. Interruption of ART causes rapid recrudescence of HIV plasma viremia due to reactivation of latently HIV-infected cells. Here, we characterize the timing of both the initial and subsequent successful viral reactivations following ART interruption in macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV). We compare these to previous results from HIV-infected patients. We find that on average the time until the first successful viral reactivation event is longer than the time between subsequent reactivations. Based on this result, we hypothesize that the reactivation frequency of both HIV and SIV may fluctuate over time, and that this may impact the treatment of HIV. We develop a stochastic model incorporating fluctuations in the frequency of viral reactivation following ART interruption that shows behaviours consistent with the observed data. Furthermore, we show that one of the impacts of a fluctuating reactivation frequency would be to significantly reduce the efficacy of 'anti-latency' interventions for HIV that aim to reduce the frequency of reactivation. It is therefore essential to consider the possibility of a fluctuating reactivation frequency when assessing the impact of such intervention strategies.

Host-mediated impairment of parasite maturation during blood-stage Plasmodium infection.

Severe malaria and associated high parasite burdens occur more frequently in humans lacking robust adaptive immunity to Plasmodium falciparum Nevertheless, the host may partly control blood-stage parasite numbers while adaptive immunity is gradually established. Parasite control has typically been attributed to enhanced removal of parasites by the host, although in vivo quantification of this phenomenon remains challenging. We used a unique in vivo approach to determine the fate of a single cohort of semisynchronous, Plasmodium berghei ANKA- or Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL-parasitized red blood cells (pRBCs) after transfusion into naive or acutely infected mice. As previously shown, acutely infected mice, with ongoing splenic and systemic inflammatory responses, controlled parasite population growth more effectively than naive controls. Surprisingly, however, this was not associated with accelerated removal of pRBCs from circulation. Instead, transfused pRBCs remained in circulation longer in acutely infected mice. Flow cytometric assessment and mathematical modeling of intraerythrocytic parasite development revealed an unexpected and substantial slowing of parasite maturation in acutely infected mice, extending the life cycle from 24 h to 40 h. Importantly, impaired parasite maturation was the major contributor to control of parasite growth in acutely infected mice. Moreover, by performing the same experiments in rag1-/- mice, which lack T and B cells and mount weak inflammatory responses, we revealed that impaired parasite maturation is largely dependent upon the host response to infection. Thus, impairment of parasite maturation represents a host-mediated, immune system-dependent mechanism for limiting parasite population growth during the early stages of an acute blood-stage Plasmodium infection.

Estimating Initial Viral Levels during Simian Immunodeficiency Virus/Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reactivation from Latency.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viremia rebounds rapidly after treatment interruption, and a variety of strategies are being explored to reduce or control viral reactivation posttreatment. This viral rebound arises from reactivation of individual latently infected cells, which spread during ongoing rounds of productive infection. The level of virus produced by the initial individual reactivating cells is not known, although it may have major implications for the ability of different immune interventions to control viral rebound. Here we use data from both HIV and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) treatment interruption studies to estimate the initial viral load postinterruption and thereby the initial individual reactivation event. Using a barcoded virus (SIVmac239M) to track reactivation from individual latent cells, we use the observed viral growth rates and frequency of reactivation to model the dynamics of reactivation to estimate that a single reactivated latent cell can produce an average viral load equivalent to ∼0.1 to 0.5 viral RNA (vRNA) copies/ml. Modeling of treatment interruption in HIV suggests an initial viral load equivalent of ∼0.6 to 1 vRNA copies/ml. These low viral loads immediately following latent cell reactivation provide a window of opportunity for viral control by host immunity, before further replication allows viral spread. This work shows the initial levels of viral production that must be controlled in order to successfully suppress HIV reactivation following treatment interruption.IMPORTANCE Current treatment for HIV is able to suppress viral replication and prevent disease progression. However, treatment cannot eradicate infection, because the virus lies silent within latently infected cells. If treatment is stopped, the virus usually rebounds above the level of detection within a few weeks. There are a number of approaches being tested aimed at either eradicating latently infected cells or controlling the virus if it returns. Studying both the small pool of latently infected cells and the early events during viral reactivation is difficult, because these involve very small levels of virus that are difficult to measure directly. Here, we combine experimental data and mathematical modeling to understand the very early events during viral reactivation from latency in both HIV infection of humans and SIV infection of monkeys. We find that the initial levels of virus are low, which may help in designing therapies to control early viral reactivation.

In Silico Investigation of the Decline in Clinical Efficacy of Artemisinin Combination Therapies Due to Increasing Artemisinin and Partner Drug Resistance.

Antimalarial treatment currently relies on an artemisinin derivative and a longer-acting partner drug. With the emergence of resistance to the artemisinin derivatives and the potential pressure this exerts on the partner drugs, the impact of resistance to each drug on efficacy needs to be investigated. An in silico exploration of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and mefloquine-artesunate, two artemisinin-based combination therapies that are commonly used in Southeast Asia, was performed. The percentage of treatment failures was simulated from a within-host pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model, assuming that parasites developed increasing levels of (i) artemisinin derivative resistance or (ii) concomitant resistance to both the artemisinin derivative and the partner drug. Because the exact nature of how resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites respond to treatment is unknown, we examined the impact on treatment failure rates of artemisinin resistance that (i) reduced the maximal killing rate, (ii) increased the concentration of drug required for 50% killing, or (iii) shortened the window of parasite stages that were susceptible to artemisinin derivatives until the drugs had no effect on the ring stages. The loss of the ring-stage activity of the artemisinin derivative caused the greatest increase in the treatment failure rate, and this result held irrespective of whether partner drug resistance was assumed to be present or not. To capture the uncertainty regarding how artemisinin derivative and partner drug resistance affects the assumed concentration-killing effect relationship, a variety of changes to this relationship should be considered when using within-host PKPD models to simulate clinical outcomes to guide treatment strategies for resistant infections.

Modeling of Antilatency Treatment in HIV: What Is the Optimal Duration of Antiretroviral Therapy-Free HIV Remission?

A number of treatment strategies are currently being developed to promote antiretroviral therapy-free HIV cure or remission. While complete elimination of the HIV reservoir would prevent recurrence of infection, it is not clear how different remission lengths would affect viral rebound and transmission. In this work, we use a stochastic model to show that a treatment that achieves a 1-year average time to viral remission will still lead to nearly a quarter of subjects experiencing viral rebound within the first 3 months. Given quarterly viral testing intervals, this leads to an expected 39 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 to 69) heterosexual transmissions and up to 262 (95% UI, 107 to 534) homosexual transmissions per 1,000 treated subjects over a 10-year period. Thus, a balance between high initial treatment levels, risk of recrudescence, and risk of transmission should be considered when assessing the "useful" or optimal length of antiretroviral therapy-free HIV remission to be targeted. We also investigate the trade-off between increasing the average duration of remission versus the risk of treatment failure (viral recrudescence) and the need for retreatment. To minimize drug exposure, we found that the optimal target of antilatency interventions is a 1,700-fold reduction in the size of the reservoir, which leads to an average time to recrudescence of 30 years. Interestingly, this is a significantly lower level of reduction than that required for complete elimination of the viral reservoir. Additionally, we show that when shorter periods are targeted, there is a real probability of viral transmission occurring between tests for viral rebound.IMPORTANCE Current treatment of HIV involves patients taking antiretroviral therapy to ensure that the level of virus remains very low or undetectable. Continuous therapy is required, as the virus persists in a latent state within cells, and when therapy is stopped, the virus rebounds, usually within 2 weeks. A major question is how to reduce the amount of persistent virus and therefore allow a delay or remission until the virus returns after ceasing therapy. In this work, we consider the probability that HIV will still rebound even after this reduction and ask what the likelihood of viral transmission would be in this case.

Correction: HIV Reactivation from Latency after Treatment Interruption Occurs on Average Every 5-8 Days-Implications for HIV Remission.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005000.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005740.][This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1005679.].

HIV Reactivation from Latency after Treatment Interruption Occurs on Average Every 5-8 Days--Implications for HIV Remission.

HIV infection can be effectively controlled by anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in most patients. However therapy must be continued for life, because interruption of ART leads to rapid recrudescence of infection from long-lived latently infected cells. A number of approaches are currently being developed to 'purge' the reservoir of latently infected cells in order to either eliminate infection completely, or significantly delay the time to viral recrudescence after therapy interruption. A fundamental question in HIV research is how frequently the virus reactivates from latency, and thus how much the reservoir might need to be reduced to produce a prolonged antiretroviral-free HIV remission. Here we provide the first direct estimates of the frequency of viral recrudescence after ART interruption, combining data from four independent cohorts of patients undergoing treatment interruption, comprising 100 patients in total. We estimate that viral replication is initiated on average once every ≈6 days (range 5.1- 7.6 days). This rate is around 24 times lower than previous thought, and is very similar across the cohorts. In addition, we analyse data on the ratios of different 'reactivation founder' viruses in a separate cohort of patients undergoing ART-interruption, and estimate the frequency of successful reactivation to be once every 3.6 days. This suggests that a reduction in the reservoir size of around 50-70-fold would be required to increase the average time-to-recrudescence to about one year, and thus achieve at least a short period of anti-retroviral free HIV remission. Our analyses suggests that time-to-recrudescence studies will need to be large in order to detect modest changes in the reservoir, and that macaque models of SIV latency may have much higher frequencies of viral recrudescence after ART interruption than seen in human HIV infection. Understanding the mean frequency of recrudescence from latency is an important first step in approaches to prolong antiretroviral-free viral remission in HIV.

A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives-the most effective and widely-used antimalarials that have helped reduce the burden of malaria by 60% in some areas over the past decade-have recently been found to induce growth retardation of blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum when applied at clinically relevant concentrations. To date, no model has been designed to quantify the growth retardation effect and to predict the influence of this property on in vivo parasite killing. Here we introduce a mechanistic model of parasite growth from the ring to trophozoite stage of the parasite's life cycle, and by modelling the level of staining with an RNA-binding dye, we demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce fluorescence distribution data from in vitro experiments using the laboratory 3D7 strain. We quantify the dependence of growth retardation on drug concentration and identify the concentration threshold above which growth retardation is evident. We estimate that the parasite life cycle is prolonged by up to 10 hours. We illustrate that even such a relatively short delay in growth may significantly influence in vivo parasite dynamics, demonstrating the importance of considering growth retardation in the design of optimal artemisinin-based dosing regimens.