The COVID-19 baby bump in the United States.

We use natality microdata covering the universe of US. births for 2015 to 2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in US fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all US births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall "baby bump" among US-born mothers, which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to US-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a prepandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that US births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women aged 30 to 34 and women with a college education. The 2021 to 2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

Inequality in mortality between Black and White Americans by age, place, and cause and in comparison to Europe, 1990 to 2018.

Although there is a large gap between Black and White American life expectancies, the gap fell 48.9% between 1990 and 2018, mainly due to mortality declines among Black Americans. We examine age-specific mortality trends and racial gaps in life expectancy in high- and low-income US areas and with reference to six European countries. Inequalities in life expectancy are starker in the United States than in Europe. In 1990, White Americans and Europeans in high-income areas had similar overall life expectancy, while life expectancy for White Americans in low-income areas was lower. However, since then, even high-income White Americans have lost ground relative to Europeans. Meanwhile, the gap in life expectancy between Black Americans and Europeans decreased by 8.3%. Black American life expectancy increased more than White American life expectancy in all US areas, but improvements in lower-income areas had the greatest impact on the racial life expectancy gap. The causes that contributed the most to Black Americans' mortality reductions included cancer, homicide, HIV, and causes originating in the fetal or infant period. Life expectancy for both Black and White Americans plateaued or slightly declined after 2012, but this stalling was most evident among Black Americans even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. If improvements had continued at the 1990 to 2012 rate, the racial gap in life expectancy would have closed by 2036. European life expectancy also stalled after 2014. Still, the comparison with Europe suggests that mortality rates of both Black and White Americans could fall much further across all ages and in both high-income and low-income areas.

Treatment of mental illness in American adolescents varies widely within and across areas.

Many mental health disorders first manifest in adolescence, and early treatment may affect the course of the disease. Using a large national database of insurance claims, this study focuses on variations in the type of care that adolescent patients receive when they are treated for an initial episode of mental illness. We found large variations in the probability that children receive follow-up care and in the type of follow-up care received across zip codes. We also found large variations in the probability that children receive drug treatments that raise a red flag when viewed through the lens of treatment guidelines: Overall, in the first 3 mo after their initial claim for mental illness, 44.85% of children who receive drug treatment receive benzodiazepines, tricyclic antidepressants, or a drug that is not Food and Drug Administration-approved for their age. On average, these children are 12 y old. While the supply of mental health professionals impacts treatment choices, little of the overall variation is explained by supply-side variables, and at least half of the variation in treatment outcomes occurs within zip codes. These results suggest that other factors, such as physician practice style, may play an important role in the types of treatment that children receive.

Changes in the Relationship Between Income and Life Expectancy Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, California, 2015-2021.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a large decrease in US life expectancy in 2020, but whether a similar decrease occurred in 2021 and whether the relationship between income and life expectancy intensified during the pandemic are unclear. Objective: To measure changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 and the relationship between income and life expectancy by race and ethnicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective ecological analysis of deaths in California in 2015 to 2021 to calculate state- and census tract-level life expectancy. Tracts were grouped by median household income (MHI), obtained from the American Community Survey, and the slope of the life expectancy-income gradient was compared by year and by racial and ethnic composition. Exposures: California in 2015 to 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic) and 2020 to 2021 (during the COVID-19 pandemic). Main Outcomes and Measures: Life expectancy at birth. Results: California experienced 1 988 606 deaths during 2015 to 2021, including 654 887 in 2020 to 2021. State life expectancy declined from 81.40 years in 2019 to 79.20 years in 2020 and 78.37 years in 2021. MHI data were available for 7962 of 8057 census tracts (98.8%; n = 1 899 065 deaths). Mean MHI ranged from $21 279 to $232 261 between the lowest and highest percentiles. The slope of the relationship between life expectancy and MHI increased significantly, from 0.075 (95% CI, 0.07-0.08) years per percentile in 2019 to 0.103 (95% CI, 0.098-0.108; P < .001) years per percentile in 2020 and 0.107 (95% CI, 0.102-0.112; P < .001) years per percentile in 2021. The gap in life expectancy between the richest and poorest percentiles increased from 11.52 years in 2019 to 14.67 years in 2020 and 15.51 years in 2021. Among Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian, Black, and White populations, life expectancy declined 5.74 years among the Hispanic population, 3.04 years among the non-Hispanic Asian population, 3.84 years among the non-Hispanic Black population, and 1.90 years among the non-Hispanic White population between 2019 and 2021. The income-life expectancy gradient in these groups increased significantly between 2019 and 2020 (0.038 [95% CI, 0.030-0.045; P < .001] years per percentile among Hispanic individuals; 0.024 [95% CI: 0.005-0.044; P = .02] years per percentile among Asian individuals; 0.015 [95% CI, 0.010-0.020; P < .001] years per percentile among Black individuals; and 0.011 [95% CI, 0.007-0.015; P < .001] years per percentile among White individuals) and between 2019 and 2021 (0.033 [95% CI, 0.026-0.040; P < .001] years per percentile among Hispanic individuals; 0.024 [95% CI, 0.010-0.038; P = .002] years among Asian individuals; 0.024 [95% CI, 0.011-0.037; P = .003] years per percentile among Black individuals; and 0.013 [95% CI, 0.008-0.018; P < .001] years per percentile among White individuals). The increase in the gradient was significantly greater among Hispanic vs White populations in 2020 and 2021 (P < .001 in both years) and among Black vs White populations in 2021 (P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: This retrospective analysis of census tract-level income and mortality data in California from 2015 to 2021 demonstrated a decrease in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021 and an increase in the life expectancy gap by income level relative to the prepandemic period that disproportionately affected some racial and ethnic minority populations. Inferences at the individual level are limited by the ecological nature of the study, and the generalizability of the findings outside of California are unknown.

Child health as human capital.

Child health is increasingly understood to be a critical form of human capital, but only recently have we begun to understand how valuable it is and how its development could be better supported. This article provides an overview of recent work that demonstrates the key role of public insurance in supporting longer term human capital development and points to improvements in child mental health as an especially important mechanism.

The health and healthcare impact of providing insurance coverage to uninsured children: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Of the 4.8 million uninsured children in America, 62-72% are eligible for but not enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP. Not enough is known, however, about the impact of health insurance on outcomes and costs for previously uninsured children, which has never been examined prospectively. METHODS: This prospective observational study of uninsured Medicaid/CHIP-eligible minority children compared children obtaining coverage vs. those remaining uninsured. Subjects were recruited at 97 community sites, and 11 outcomes monitored monthly for 1 year. RESULTS: In this sample of 237 children, those obtaining coverage were significantly (P < .05) less likely than the uninsured to have suboptimal health (27% vs. 46%); no PCP (7% vs. 40%); experienced never/sometimes getting immediate care from the PCP (7% vs. 40%); no usual source of preventive (1% vs. 20%) or sick (3% vs. 12%) care; and unmet medical (13% vs. 48%), preventive (6% vs. 50%), and dental (18% vs. 62%) care needs. The uninsured had higher out-of-pocket doctor-visit costs (mean = $70 vs. $29), and proportions of parents not recommending the child's healthcare provider to friends (24% vs. 8%) and reporting the child's health caused family financial problems (29% vs. 5%), and lower well-child-care-visit quality ratings. In bivariate analyses, older age, birth outside of the US, and lacking health insurance for >6 months at baseline were associated with remaining uninsured for the entire year. In multivariable analysis, children who had been uninsured for >6 months at baseline (odds ratio [OR], 3.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-10.3) and African-American children (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1-7.3) had significantly higher odds of remaining uninsured for the entire year. Insurance saved $2886/insured child/year, with mean healthcare costs = $5155/uninsured vs. $2269/insured child (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Providing health insurance to Medicaid/CHIP-eligible uninsured children improves health, healthcare access and quality, and parental satisfaction; reduces unmet needs and out-of-pocket costs; and saves $2886/insured child/year. African-American children and those who have been uninsured for >6 months are at greatest risk for remaining uninsured. Extrapolation of the savings realized by insuring uninsured, Medicaid/CHIP-eligible children suggests that America potentially could save $8.7-$10.1 billion annually by providing health insurance to all Medicaid/CHIP-eligible uninsured children.

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility.

Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist, because women simply may postpone childbearing to better economic times. Using more than 140 million US birth records for the period 1975-2010, we analyze both the short- and long-run effects of unemployment on fertility. We follow fixed cohorts of US-born women defined by their own state and year of birth, and relate their fertility to the unemployment rate experienced by each cohort at different ages. We focus on conceptions that result in a live birth. We find that women in their early 20s are most affected by high unemployment rates in the short run and that the negative effects on fertility grow over time. A one percentage point increase in the average unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by six conceptions per 1,000 women. When we follow these women to age 40, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at ages 20-24 leads to an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This long-run effect is driven largely by women who remain childless and thus do not have either first births or higher-order births.

Within-mother analysis of seasonal patterns in health at birth.

A large literature describes relationships between month of birth, birth weight, and gestation. These relationships are hypothesized to reflect the causal impact of seasonal environmental factors. However, recent work casts doubt on this interpretation by showing that mothers with lower socioeconomic status are more likely to give birth in months that are associated with poorer birth outcomes. Seasonality in the numbers of conceptions in different months can also induce a mechanical correlation between preterm birth and month of birth. This paper analyzes the seasonality of health at birth using a large sample of 647,050 groups of US siblings representing 1,435,213 children. By following the same mother over time, we eliminate differences in fixed maternal characteristics as an explanation for seasonal differences in health at birth. We find a sharp trough in gestation length among babies conceived in May, which corresponds to an increase in prematurity of more than 10%. Birth weight conditional on gestation length, however, is found to be strongly hump-shaped over the year, with 8-9 additional g for summer conceptions. We examine several potential mechanisms for explaining seasonality in birth outcomes that have generally been dismissed in the literature on seasonality in rich countries, notably disease prevalence and nutrition. The May trough in gestation length coincides with a higher influenza prevalence in January and February, when these babies are nearing full term, whereas the hump shape in birth weight is associated with a similar pattern in pregnancy weight gain.

Environmental Health Risks and Housing Values: Evidence from 1,600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings.

Regulatory oversight of toxic emissions from industrial plants and understanding about these emissions' impacts are in their infancy. Applying a research design based on the openings and closings of 1,600 industrial plants to rich data on housing markets and infant health, we find that: toxic air emissions affect air quality only within 1 mile of the plant; plant openings lead to 11 percent declines in housing values within 0.5 mile or a loss of about $4.25 million for these households; and a plant's operation is associated with a roughly 3 percent increase in the probability of low birthweight within 1 mile.

Addressing Antibiotic Abuse in China: An Experimental Audit Study.

China has high rates of antibiotic abuse and antibiotic resistance but the causes are still a matter for debate. Strong physician financial incentives to prescribe are likely to be an important cause. However, patient demand (or physician beliefs about patient demand) is often cited and may also play a role. We use an audit study to examine the effect of removing financial incentives, and to try to separate out the effects of patient demand. We implement a number of different experimental treatments designed to try to rule out other possible explanations for our findings. Together, our results suggest that financial incentives are the main driver of antibiotic abuse in China, at least in the young and healthy population we draw on in our study.

Socioeconomic status and access to mental health care: The case of psychiatric medications for children in Ontario Canada.

We examine differences in the prescribing of psychiatric medications to lower-income and higher-income children in the Canadian province of Ontario using rich administrative data that includes diagnosis codes and physician identifiers. Our most striking finding is that conditional on diagnosis and medical history, low-income children are more likely to be prescribed antipsychotics and benzodiazepines than higher-income children who see the same doctors. These are drugs with potentially dangerous side effects that ideally should be prescribed to children only under narrowly proscribed circumstances. Lower-income children are also less likely to be prescribed SSRIs, the first-line treatment for depression and anxiety conditional on diagnosis. Hence, socioeconomic differences in the prescribing of psychotropic medications to children persist even in the context of universal public health insurance and universal drug coverage.

Pregnancy weight gain and childhood body weight: a within-family comparison.

BACKGROUND: Excessive pregnancy weight gain is associated with obesity in the offspring, but this relationship may be confounded by genetic and other shared influences. We aimed to examine the association of pregnancy weight gain with body mass index (BMI) in the offspring, using a within-family design to minimize confounding. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this population-based cohort study, we matched records of all live births in Arkansas with state-mandated data on childhood BMI collected in public schools (from August 18, 2003 to June 2, 2011). The cohort included 42,133 women who had more than one singleton pregnancy and their 91,045 offspring. We examined how differences in weight gain that occurred during two or more pregnancies for each woman predicted her children's BMI and odds ratio (OR) of being overweight or obese (BMI≥85th percentile) at a mean age of 11.9 years, using a within-family design. For every additional kg of pregnancy weight gain, childhood BMI increased by 0.0220 (95% CI 0.0134-0.0306, p<0.0001) and the OR of overweight/obesity increased by 1.007 (CI 1.003-1.012, p = 0.0008). Variations in pregnancy weight gain accounted for a 0.43 kg/m(2) difference in childhood BMI. After adjustment for birth weight, the association of pregnancy weight gain with childhood BMI was attenuated but remained statistically significant (0.0143 kg/m(2) per kg of pregnancy weight gain, CI 0.0057-0.0229, p = 0.0007). CONCLUSIONS: High pregnancy weight gain is associated with increased body weight of the offspring in childhood, and this effect is only partially mediated through higher birth weight. Translation of these findings to public health obesity prevention requires additional study. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Social Networks and Externalities from Gift Exchange: Evidence from A Field Experiment.

This paper asks whether gift exchange generates externalities for people outside of the bilateral relationship between the gift giver and recipient, and whether the nature of this relationship is affected by social networks. We examine this question in the context of a field experiment in urban Chinese hospital outpatient clinics. We first show that when patients give a small gift, doctors reciprocate with better service and a fewer unnecessary prescriptions of antibiotics. We then show that gift giving creates externalities for third parties. If two patients, A and B are perceived as unrelated, B receives worse care when A gives a gift. However, if A identifies B as a friend, then both A and B benefit from A's gift giving. Hence, we show that gift giving can create positive or negative externalities, depending on the giver's social distance to the third party.

Something in the water: contaminated drinking water and infant health.

This paper provides estimates of the effects of in utero exposure to contaminated drinking water on fetal health. To do this, we examine the universe of birth records and drinking water testing results for the state of New Jersey from 1997 to 2007. Our data enable us to compare outcomes across siblings who were potentially exposed to differing levels of harmful contaminants from drinking water while in utero. We find small effects of drinking water contamination on all children, but large and statistically significant effects on birth weight and gestation of infants born to less educated mothers. We also show that those mothers who were most affected by contamination were the least likely to move between births in response to contamination.

Do urgent care centers reduce Medicare spending?

We ask how urgent care centers (UCCs) impact healthcare costs and utilization among nearby Medicare beneficiaries. When residents of a zip code are first served by a UCC, total Medicare spending rises while mortality remains flat. In the sixth year after entry, 4.2% of the Medicare beneficiaries in a zip code that is served use a UCC, and the average per-capita annual Medicare spending in the zip code increases by $268, implying an incremental spending increase of $6,335 for each new UCC user. UCC entry is also associated with a significant increase in hospital stays and increased hospital spending accounts for half of the total increase in annual spending. These results raise the possibility that, on balance, UCCs increase costs by steering patients to hospitals.

New Caregiver Diagnoses of Severe Depression and Child Asthma Controller Medication Adherence.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Children with asthma who have depressed caregivers are known to be less adherent to medication regimes. However, it is less clear how adherence responds to a caregiver's new diagnosis of severe depression or whether there is a similar relationship with other serious caregiver diagnoses. The hypothesis is that adherence worsens both with new diagnoses of depression and possibly with new diagnoses of other serious conditions. METHODS: This study follows a cohort of 341,444 continuously insured children with asthma before and after a caregiver's new diagnosis of severe depression or another serious health condition. The effect of a new depression diagnosis on a child's medication adherence is compared to the effect of new diagnoses of other common caregiver chronic conditions including diabetes, cancer, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. RESULTS: Results show that children's medication adherence declines following a caregiver's new diagnosis of severe depression, but that it also declines following a caregiver's new diagnosis of diabetes. There is no association with new diagnoses of the other caregiver chronic conditions examined. CONCLUSIONS: Children whose caregivers have a new diagnosis of depression or diabetes may be at increased risk of deterioration in their medication adherence. These caregivers may benefit from additional support and follow-up. The relationship between caregivers' health and children's medication adherence is complex and deserves further study.

Mothers as insurance: Family spillovers in WIC.

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is a widely used program. Previous research shows that WIC improves birth outcomes, but evidence about impacts on older children and their families is limited. We use a regression discontinuity leveraging a loss of benefits at age five when children become ineligible for WIC and examine nutritional and laboratory outcomes for adults and children. We find little impact on children who aged out of the program. But caloric intake falls and food insecurity increases among adult women, suggesting that mothers protect children by consuming less themselves. We find no effect on others in the household.