Spatiotemporal Changes in the Slavery-Inequality Relationship: The Diffusion of the Legacy of Slavery.

Despite the persistence of relationships between historical racist violence and contemporary Black-White inequality, research indicates, in broad strokes, that the slavery-inequality relationship in the United States has changed over time. Identifying the timing of such change across states can offer insights into the underlying processes that generate Black-White inequality. In this study, we use integrated nested Laplace approximation models to simultaneously account for spatial and temporal features of panel data for Southern counties during the period spanning 1900 to 2018, in combination with data on the concentration of enslaved people from the 1860 census. Results provide the first evidence on the timing of changes in the slavery-economic inequality relationship and how changes differ across states. We find a region-wide decline in the magnitude of the slavery-inequality relationship by 1930, with declines traversing the South in a northeasterly-to-southwesterly pattern over the study period. Different paces in declines in the relationship across states suggest the expansion of institutionalized racism first in places with the longest-standing overt systems of slavery. Results provide guidance for further identifying intervening mechanisms-most centrally, the maturity of racial hierarchies and the associated diffusion of racial oppression across institutions, and how they affect the legacy of slavery in the United States.

Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses From Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States.

We introduce the consideration of human migration into research on economic losses from extreme weather disasters. Taking a comparative case study approach and using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, we document the size of economic losses attributable to migration from 23 disaster-affected areas in the United States before, during, and after some of the most costly hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires on record. We then employ demographic standardization and decomposition to determine if these losses primarily reflect changes in out-migration or the economic resources that migrants take with them. Finally, we consider the implications of these losses for changing spatial inequality in the United States. While disaster-affected areas and their populations differ in their experiences of and responses to extreme weather disasters, we generally find that, relative to the year before an extreme weather disaster, economic losses via migration from disaster-affected areas increase the year of and after the disaster, these changes primarily reflect changes in out-migration (vs. the economic resources that migrants take with them), and these losses briefly disrupt the status quo by temporarily reducing spatial inequality.

Operationalizing and empirically identifying populations trapped in place by climate and environmental stressors in Mexico.

In this paper, we propose a guiding operational definition and corresponding set of empirical steps to identify and study trapped populations. Trapped populations consist of actors who are highly vulnerable to climate and environmental stressors given limited resources (economic, social, etc.), which limit their ability to adapt to these stressors in-situ or by choosing to migrate. Informed by both insights and omissions from prior theoretical and empirical research, we propose a guiding operational definition of trapped populations that appreciates and incorporates actors' limited resources and their migration intentions against the backdrop of climate and environmental stressors. As it should, our operational definition points to a specific set of operations, or steps, which can be followed to empirically identify and study trapped populations. Using data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), we detail the steps permitting both retrospective and prospective identification of trapped populations. We conclude by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of our operational definition and empirical approach, as well as possible extensions.

The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990-2015.

Presently, there is no agreed upon data-driven approach for identifying the geographic boundaries of migration networks that international migration systems are ultimately manifested in. Drawing from research on community detection methods, we introduce and apply the Information Theoretic Community Detection Algorithm for identifying and studying the geographic boundaries of migration networks. Using a new set of estimates of country-to-country migration flows every 5 years from 1990 to 1995 to 2010-2015, we trace the form and evolution of international migration networks over the past 25 years. Consistent with the concept of dynamic stability, we show that the number, size and internal country compositions of international migration networks have been remarkably stable over time; however, we also document many short-term fluctuations. We conclude by reflecting on the spirit of our work in this paper, which is to promote consensus around tools and best practices for identifying and studying international migration networks.

Population change and the legacy of slavery.

Despite increasing evidence of a contemporary legacy of slavery in the US South, scholars do not have a clear empirical understanding of the ways in which demographic forces can alter local connections to racial histories. In this study, we examine the influence of long-run trends in population change on the relationship between historical slave concentration and contemporary black-white poverty inequality in the American South. We combine one century and a half of county-level population data, including estimates of the slave and total populations in 1860, estimates of black and white population change starting in 1880, and black-white poverty disparities from the 2011-2015 American Community Survey. Our results offer new empirical evidence regarding the enduring influence of racial histories over time, and suggest that white population increase between 1880 and 1910 was particularly influential in understanding the local connection between slave concentration and black-white inequality. Moreover, rather than disrupting the transmission of the legacy of slavery, results indicate that white population increase may have helped spread this legacy of racial inequality to other counties through diffusion processes. We find that while local historical legacies are persistent, they are not permanent, and population trends are a critical force shaping local racial inequality.

Changing Spatial Interconnectivity during the "Great American Migration Slowdown": A Decomposition of Intercounty Migration Rates, 1990-2010.

Prior research on the "Great American Migration Slowdown," or the declining rate of U.S. internal migration in recent decades, is dominated by two research foci. The first is concerned with the determinants of the migration slowdown. The second is concerned with spatial heterogeneity in the migration slowdown in and across places. With respect to the aim of this paper, many studies of spatial heterogeneity in the migration slowdown have implicitly raised questions about whether and to what extent places are connected to one another by migration flows, or the spatial interconnectivity of migration. The spatial interconnectivity of migration is a concrete manifestation of underlying spatial interdependence among places, and, as such, deserves to be explicitly unpacked to further our understanding of the migration slowdown. Using county-to-county migration flow data from the Internal Revenue Service and a novel application of Das Gupta's demographic standardization and decomposition procedures, we document changes in the spatial interconnectivity of migration during the migration slowdown between 1990 and 2010. We show that counties became more connected to one another by migration over time, and that the increasing spatial interconnectivity of migration helped to keep the migration slowdown from slowing further. We also document changes in the spatial interconnectivity of migration for four types of migration flows: metro-to-metro, nonmetro-to-metro, metro-to-nonmetro, and nonmetro-to-nonmetro. Our work further elucidates the characteristics of the migration slowdown by describing changes in the spatial interconnectivity of migration. It also raises new questions for future research about the determinants and consequences of these changes.

Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel.

BACKGROUND: We introduce and provide the first comprehensive comparative assessment of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) as a valuable and underutilized dataset for studying internal migration within the United States. Relative to other data sources on US internal migration, the CCP permits highly detailed cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of migration, both temporally and geographically. OBJECTIVE: We seek to demonstrate the comparative utility and some of the unique advantages of the CCP relative to other data sources on US internal migration. METHODS: We compare cross-sectional and longitudinal estimates of migration from the CCP to similar estimates derived from the American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey, Internal Revenue Service data, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. RESULTS: Our results firmly establish the comparative utility and clearly illustrate some of the unique advantages of the CCP relative to other data sources on US internal migration. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude by identifying some profitable directions for future research on US internal migration using the CCP, as well as reminding readers of the strengths and limitations of these data. CONTRIBUTION: We provide an introduction to the CCP as a comprehensive comparative point of reference to stimulate future research on US internal migration using these data. More broadly, this paper contributes to research on the use of non-traditional data sources to study migration given well-documented problems with the availability, quality, and comparability of migration data from traditional sources.

Putting trapped populations into place: Climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia.

Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of populations to climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, "trapped" populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of places. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the "holding power" of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.

Migration and Parental Absence: A Comparative Assessment of Transnational Families in Latin America.

Despite growing research on transnational families and children's welfare in migrant-sending countries, there is a dearth of information about the prevalence of, what we call, parental absence via migration, especially relative to other sources of parental absence, and a lack of estimates that are comparable across populations and places. This makes it difficult to determine the scale for policy interventions, and to justify future research on transnational families and children's welfare. Using harmonized surveys covering eight Latin American countries and Puerto Rico, validated by nationally representative census and survey data, we provide the first estimates of the prevalence parental absence via migration that are comparable across populations in contemporary Latin America. We show that between 7 and 21 percent of children live in transnational families where parents are absent because of migration. We compare our estimates to similar estimates of parental absence from other sources, and show that, in several populations, more children are experiencing parental absence due to migration than to union dissolution or parental mortality. Finally, we link our descriptive work to children's welfare by examining the characteristics of children's home environments when parents migrate. Children living in families with absent parents due to migration are less likely to coreside with extended family members, and to fare better in terms of household assets, relative to children living in other family forms. We conclude by highlighting the limitations of the data, and underscore the value of attempts to estimate the prevalence of parental absence via migration.

The 'New Great Migration' of Blacks to the U.S. South: Estimating duration of residence in the absence of retrospective information.

BACKGROUND: Prior research on the 'New Great Migration' of Blacks to the U.S. South from other U.S. regions has neglected the issue of how long Black migrants have lived or can be expected to live in the South. This is a critical omission because duration of residence is an important precondition for and an indicator of migrants' integration in receiving areas. Unfortunately, data limitations prevent estimating Black migrants' duration of residence in the South in the usual way, using information from retrospective questions and life histories. OBJECTIVE: Taking an unconventional but familiar approach, this study develops the first estimates of Black migrants' expected duration of residence in the South to shed light on the temporal characteristics of the New Great Migration. METHODS: Microdata from four U.S. censuses and an adaptation to the accounting procedures in multiregional life tables are used to estimate Black migrants' expected duration of residence in the South between 1965 and 2000 for four birth cohorts (those born in 1920, 1930, 1940, and 1950), with uncertainty. We further disaggregate our results by place of birth (South versus non-South). RESULTS: Black migrants could expect to live about half of their remaining life between 1965 and 2000 in the South, with variation across cohorts and by place of birth. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a needed point of reference for research on the New Great Migration of Blacks to the South, and shows how analyses of the age and origin-destination structure of migration flows can reveal their implied temporal dynamics.

Climate Shocks and the Timing of Migration from Mexico.

Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in-situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-U.S. migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in-situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about three years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in-situ.

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: Exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems.

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or "stage," migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a five-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.

Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.

Changes in the human migration systems of the Gulf of Mexico coastline counties affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of "climate refugees," but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests that most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-stricken places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007-2009) with the pre-disaster period (1999-2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows, we find that recovery migration was strong: the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated, while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places.

Recovery Migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A Migration Systems Approach.

Hurricane Katrina's effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system - defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties - between the pre-disaster (1999-2004) and recovery (2007-2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.

Rare and highly destructive wildfires drive human migration in the U.S.

The scale of wildfire impacts to the built environment is growing and will likely continue under rising average global temperatures. We investigate whether and at what destruction threshold wildfires have influenced human mobility patterns by examining the migration effects of the most destructive wildfires in the contiguous U.S. between 1999 and 2020. We find that only the most extreme wildfires (258+ structures destroyed) influenced migration patterns. In contrast, the majority of wildfires examined were less destructive and did not cause significant changes to out- or in-migration. These findings suggest that, for the past two decades, the influence of wildfire on population mobility was rare and operated primarily through destruction of the built environment.

Environmental migration as short- or long-term differences from a trend: A case study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita effects on out-migration in the Gulf of Mexico.

An environmental event that damages housing and the built environment may result in either a short- or long-term out-migration response, depending on residents' recovery decisions and hazard tolerance. If residents move only in the immediate disaster aftermath, then out-migration will be elevated only in the short-term. However, if disasters increase residents' concerns about future risk, heighten vulnerability, or harm the local economy, then out-migration may be elevated for years after an event. The substantive aim of this research brief is to evaluate hypotheses about short- and long-term out-migration responses to the highly destructive 2005 hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. The methodological aim is to demonstrate a difference-in-differences (DID) approach analyzing time series data from Gulf Coast counties to compare short- and long-differences in out-migration probabilities in the treatment and control counties. We find a large short-term out-migration response and a smaller sustained increase for the disaster-affected coastal counties.

Crimmigrating Narratives: Examining Third-Party Observations of US Detained Immigration Court.

Examining what we call "crimmigrating narratives," we show that US immigration court criminalizes non-citizens, cements forms of social control, and dispenses punishment in a non-punitive legal setting. Building on theories of crimmigration and a sociology of narrative, we code, categorize, and describe third-party observations of detained immigration court hearings conducted in Fort Snelling, Minnesota, from July 2018 to June 2019. We identify and investigate structural factors of three key crimmigrating narratives in the courtroom: one based on threats (stories of the non-citizen's criminal history and perceived danger to society), a second involving deservingness (stories of the non-citizen's social ties, hardship, and belonging in the United States), and a third pertaining to their status as "impossible subjects" (stories rendering non-citizens "illegal," categorically excludable, and contradictory to the law). Findings demonstrate that the courts' prioritization of these three narratives disconnects detainees from their own socially organized experience and prevents them from fully engaging in the immigration court process. In closing, we discuss the potential implications of crimmigrating narratives for the US immigration legal system and non-citizen status.

User Beware: Concerning Findings from the Post 2011-2012 U.S. Internal Revenue Service Migration Data.

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) makes publicly and freely available period migration data at the state and county levels. Among their uses, these data inform estimates of net-migration as part of the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program, which, in turn, are used for producing other annual statistics, survey design, business and community planning, and federal funding allocations. Building on and extending prior research, we devote this Research Brief to documenting from multiple new angles a highly concerning and apparently systemic problem with the IRS migration data since the IRS took over responsibilities for preparing these data from the U.S. Census Bureau in 2011. As we then discuss, despite the fact that the IRS provides documentation detailing changes that it made to how it prepares these data relative to how the U.S. Census Bureau prepared them, it is not clear why or how these changes would result in the problem detailed in our analysis. Given that this problem appears to be an internal one within the IRS, we conclude by suggesting that the post 2011-12 IRS migration data not be used until this problem is resolved, and we encourage the IRS to do so quickly, transparently, and collaboratively.

Perceived structural vulnerabilities among detained noncitizen immigrants in Minnesota.

Across several decades there has been an unprecedented increase in immigration enforcement including detention and deportation. Immigration detention profoundly impacts those experiencing detention and their family members. An emerging area of research has found that immigrants experience a number of challenges which constrain and limit their decisions, choices, and options for security and integration in the United States due to social, political and structural determinants. These determinants lead to greater structural vulnerabilities among immigrants. The purpose of the current study was to illuminate the perceived vulnerabilities of detained noncitizen immigrants as they are raised and described while attending case hearings at the Bloomington, Minnesota immigration court. Through conducting a thematic analysis of notes derived from third party immigration court observers, three areas of perceived vulnerability were identified. These perceived vulnerabilities include 1) migration and motivations to migrate, 2) structural vulnerabilities (e.g., discrimination, financial insecurity, social ties and family support, stable or fixed residence, English language proficiency, health and mental health) in the US, and 3) challenges in navigating immigration detention. These findings demonstrate that noncitizen immigrants who are undergoing immigration detention are experiencing multiple intersecting vulnerabilities which profoundly impact their lives. Collaborative efforts across sectors are needed to work towards comprehensive immigration reforms including both short-term and long-term solutions to address pressing issues for noncitizens undergoing immigration detention.

Domestic migration and mobile phones: A qualitative case study focused on recent migrants to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

Migration has long been used as a strategy for livelihood diversification in rural, subsistence communities. Yet in order for migration to effectively serve as a livelihood diversification strategy, it should meet certain conditions: migration should ease financial burdens, should confer access to economically valuable resources and information, and should broaden social networks. Using qualitative data gathered in 25 interviews with rural migrants to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, we examine how mobile phone technology has impacted migration as a livelihood diversification strategy. Our results show that while mobile phones facilitate migration, the advantages conferred may benefit migrants at the expense of the home communities. Mobile phones alleviate financial constraints, enable access to broader networks, and facilitate informational and resource support among migrants. Our results show limited evidence of migrants using mobile phone technology to provide resources or information to the home community. Our results highlight the need to reconsider the ways in which migration can be used as a livelihood diversification strategy in light of changing communication technologies to promote the economic success of both migrants and their home communities.