High prevalence of pre-treatment and acquired HIV-1 drug resistance mutations among non-citizens living with HIV in Botswana.

Background: Approximately 30,000 non-citizens are living with HIV in Botswana, all of whom as of 2020 are eligible to receive free antiretroviral treatment (ART) within the country. We assessed the prevalence of HIV-1 mutational profiles [pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR) and acquired drug resistance (ADR)] among treatment-experienced (TE) and treatment-naïve (TN) non-citizens living with HIV in Botswana. Methods: A total of 152 non-citizens living with HIV were enrolled from a migrant HIV clinic at Independence Surgery, a private practice in Botswana from 2019-2021. Viral RNA isolated from plasma samples were genotyped for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) using Sanger sequencing. Major known HIV drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in the pol region were determined using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. The proportions of HIV DRMs amongst TE and TN non-citizens were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and compared between the two groups. Results: A total of 60/152 (39.5%) participants had a detectable viral load (VL) >40 copies/mL and these were included in the subsequent analyses. The median age at enrollment was 43 years (Q1, Q3: 38-48). Among individuals with VL > 40 copies/mL, 60% (36/60) were treatment-experienced with 53% (19/36) of them on Atripla. Genotyping had a 62% (37/60) success rate - 24 were TE, and 13 were TN. A total of 29 participants (78.4, 95% CI: 0.12-0.35) had major HIV DRMs, including at least one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) associated DRM. In TE individuals, ADR to any antiretroviral drug was 83.3% (20/24), while for PDR was 69.2% (9/13). The most frequent DRMs were nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) M184V (62.1%, 18/29), NNRTIs V106M (41.4%, 12/29), and K103N (34.4%, 10/29). No integrase strand transfer inhibitor-associated DRMs were reported. Conclusion: We report high rates of PDR and ADR in ART-experienced and ART-naïve non-citizens, respectively, in Botswana. Given the uncertainty of time of HIV acquisition and treatment adherence levels in this population, routine HIV-1C VL monitoring coupled with HIVDR genotyping is crucial for long-term ART success.

Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

Discussing matters of sexual health with children: what issues relating to disclosure of parental HIV status reveal.

Little is published about the disclosure of parents' own HIV status to their children in Africa. Research shows that keeping family secrets from children, including those related to a parent's HIV status, can be detrimental to their psychological well-being and to the structure of the family. Further, children with HIV-positive parents have been shown to be more vulnerable to poorer reproductive health outcomes. This qualitative study in Botswana conducted in-depth interviews among 21 HIV-positive parents on antiretroviral therapy. The data revealed that parents found discussing the issue of HIV with children difficult, including disclosing their own HIV status to them. Reasons for disclosing included: children being HIV positive, the rest of the family knowing, or the parent becoming very sick. Reasons for not disclosing included: believing the child to be too young, not knowing how to address the issue of HIV, that it would be "too painful" for the child/ren. Concern that other people might find out about their status or fear of children experiencing stigmatising behaviour. Interviews elucidated the difficulty that parents have in discussing their own HIV status and more general sexual health issues with their children. Parents and other guardians require support in managing age-appropriate disclosure to their children. This may further enable access to forums that can help children cope with their fears about the future and develop life skills in preparation for dealing with relationships of a sexual nature and sexual health as children move into adulthood. In developing such support mechanisms, changing family roles in Botswana need to be taken into consideration and the role of other family members in the upbringing of children in Tswana society need to be recognised and utilised.

Clinical outcomes of a cohort of migrants and citizens living with human immunodeficiency virus in Botswana: implications for Joint United Nation Program on HIV and AIDS 90-90-90 targets.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cascade and mortality in migrants and citizens living with HIV in Botswana.Retrospective 2002 to 2016 cohort study using electronic medical records from a single center managing a high migrant case load.Records for 768 migrants and 3274 citizens living with HIV were included. Maipelo Trust, a nongovernmental organization, funded care for most migrants (70%); most citizens (85%) had personal health insurance. Seventy percent of migrants and 93% of citizens had received antiretroviral therapy (ART). At study end, 44% and 27% of migrants and citizens, respectively were retained in care at the clinic (P < .001). Among the 35% and 60% of migrants and citizens on ART respectively with viral load (VL) results in 2016, viral suppression was lower among migrants (82%) than citizens (95%) (P < .001). Citizens on ART had a median 157-unit [95% confidence interval (CI) 122-192] greater increase in CD4+ T-cell count (last minus first recorded count) than migrants after adjusting for baseline count (P < .001). Five-year survival was 92% (95% CI = 87.6-94.8) for migrants and 96% (95% CI = 95.4-97.2) for citizens. Migrants had higher mortality than citizens after entry into care (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.34-3.89, P = .002) and ART initiation (hazard ratio = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.24-3.78, P = .01).Fewer migrants than citizens living with HIV in Botswana were on ART, accessed VL monitoring, achieved viral suppression, and survived. The HIV treatment cascade appears suboptimal for migrants, undermining local 90-90-90 targets. These results highlight the need to include migrants in mainstream-funded HIV treatment programs, as microepidemics can slow HIV epidemic control.

The relationship of acceptance or denial of HIV-status to antiretroviral adherence among adult HIV patients in urban Botswana.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV patients is the most important patient-enabled factor related to virological failure and can lead to drug resistance. It is important to avoid virological failure, especially in resource-limited settings where treatment options are limited and the effects of treatment failure are profound. This qualitative study aimed to identify the psycho-social factors related to adherence behaviour in Gaborone, Botswana, a high prevalence setting in southern Africa. One-to-one, in-depth interviews were conducted with adult antiretroviral patients in the private and public health sectors who had been on antiretroviral therapy for a minimum of 6 months. A grounded theory approach was adopted and patients were selected purposively and theoretical sampling determined the final sample size. Thirty-two patients were interviewed, 22 from the public-sector, the mean age was 9.5 years and 53% were women. We found that acceptance of HIV-status, the ability to avoid internalising stigmatising attitudes and identification of an encouraging confidante were key factors related to good adherence. Encouraging confidantes (including clinicians) and contributed to promoting hope and acceptance of HIV-status, enabling patients to develop a positive therapeutic relationship with their antiretrovirals and make lifestyle changes that promoted adherence. Active participation in a social network and a desire to avoid being thin and visibly identifiable as HIV-positive were also adherence-motivating factors. Conversely, participants who expressed some degree of denial about their HIV-status tended to express emotions associated with depression, and internalised stigma that inhibited the development of a relationship with a confidante. We feel it is important to identify individuals with HIV who are still in some degree of denial about their status and to identify depression among patients on antiretrovirals. This will enable more targeted, individualised support in the management of individuals' HIV disease.

Evaluation of the effect of cellular SMS reminders on consistency of antiretroviral therapy pharmacy pickups in HIV-infected adults in Botswana: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Several studies have demonstrated that cellular phone short message service (SMS) improve antiretroviral adherence for people living with HIV in Africa, although less data are available to support using SMS reminders to improve timeliness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) pharmacy pick up. This study tested the efficacy of SMS reminders on timeliness of ART pharmacy pickups at an urban clinic in Gaborone, Botswana. DESIGN: A randomized-controlled trial evaluating the effect of SMS reminders on ART collection for patients with HIV on treatment. METHODS: One hundred and eight treatment-experienced adult patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to a control group or an intervention group. Participants in the intervention group received SMS reminders that were sent in advance of monthly ART refills that needed to be collected. The primary outcome was 100% timeliness of pharmacy ART pickups. Secondary outcomes included frequency of physician visits, CD4 cell counts and viral loads. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics in the intervention (n = 54) and control arms (n = 54) were similar. After six months, 85% of those receiving SMS reminders were 100% on time picking up monthly ART refills compared to 70% in the control group (p = 0.064). In secondary analysis, there were no significant changes in the CD4 counts and viral loads over the course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Timeliness of ART pickup was not significantly improved by SMS reminders. Additionally, the intervention had no impact on immunologic or virologic outcomes in treatment-experienced patients.

Out-of-pocket costs of HAART limit HIV treatment responses in Botswana's private sector.

A large number of HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa pay out-of-pocket for HAART. This analysis from Botswana indicates that higher median out-of-pocket regimen costs to patients for the initial 30 days of HAART are associated with failure to achieve a viral load< 400 copies/ml [US$32; interquartile range (IQR), 20-84 compared with US$22; (IQR, 17-36), P = 0.001]. HAART costs should be minimized as scale-up efforts in sub-Saharan Africa progress.

Diagnostic accuracy of CD4 cell count increase for virologic response after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and internally validate a clinical prediction rule for virologic response based on CD4 cell count increase after initiation of HAART in a resource-limited setting. DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study at two HIV care clinics in Gaborone, Botswana. The participants were previously treatment-naive HIV-1-infected individuals initiating HAART. The main outcome measure was a plasma HIV-1 RNA level (viral load) < or = 400 copies/ml (i.e. undetectable) 6 months after initiating HAART. RESULTS: The ability of CD4 cell count increase to predict an undetectable viral load was significantly better in those with baseline CD4 cell counts < or = 100 cells/microl [area under the ROC curve (AUC), 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.67-0.89; versus AUC, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.71; P = 0.018]. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of a CD4 cell count increase of > or = 50 cells/microl for an undetectable viral load in those with baseline CD4 cell counts < or = 100 cells/microl were 93.1, 61.3, 92.5 and 63.3%, respectively. Alternatively, these values were 47.8, 87.1, 95.0 and 24.5%, respectively, if a increase in CD4 cell count of > or = 150 cells/microl was used. CONCLUSIONS: CD4 cell count increase after initiating HAART has only moderate discriminative ability in identifying patients with an undetectable viral load, and the predictive ability is higher [corrected] in patients with lower baseline CD4 cell counts. Although HIV treatment programs in resource-constrained settings could consider the use of CD4 cell count increases to triage viral load testing, more accurate approaches to monitoring virologic failure are urgently needed.

Incidence rate of Kaposi sarcoma in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a prospective multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included patient data of 6 ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. FINDINGS: We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. Five hundred and sixty-four incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). The overall KS incidence rate was 164/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI): 151 to 178]. The incidence rate was highest 30-90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI: 342 to 497) and declined thereafter [86/100,000 pys (95% CI: 71 to 105), >2 years after ART initiation]. Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.61], low current CD4 counts (≥500 versus <50 cells/µL, adjusted HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.55), and age (5-9 years versus 30-39 years, adjusted HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. INTERPRETATION: Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.

Zidovudine impairs immunological recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy: collaborative analysis of cohort studies in southern Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Zidovudine (ZDV) is recommended for first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. ZDV may, however, lead to anemia and impaired immunological response. We compared CD4+ cell counts over 5 years between patients starting ART with and without ZDV in southern Africa. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: Patients aged at least 16 years who started first-line ART in South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, or Lesotho were included. We used linear mixed-effect models to compare CD4+ cell count trajectories between patients on ZDV-containing regimens and patients on other regimens, censoring follow-up at first treatment change. Impaired immunological recovery, defined as a CD4+ cell count below 100 cells/µl at 1 year, was assessed in logistic regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline CD4+ cell count and hemoglobin level, age, sex, type of regimen, viral load monitoring, and calendar year. RESULTS: A total of 72,597 patients starting ART, including 19,758 (27.2%) on ZDV, were analyzed. Patients on ZDV had higher CD4+ cell counts (150 vs.128 cells/µl) and hemoglobin level (12.0 vs. 11.0 g/dl) at baseline, and were less likely to be women than those on other regimens. Adjusted differences in CD4+ cell counts between regimens containing and not containing ZDV were -16 cells/µl [95% confidence interval (CI) -18 to -14] at 1 year and -56 cells/µl (95% CI -59 to -52) at 5 years. Impaired immunological recovery was more likely with ZDV compared to other regimens (odds ratio 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.61). CONCLUSION: In southern Africa, ZDV is associated with inferior immunological recovery compared to other backbones. Replacing ZDV with another nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor could avoid unnecessary switches to second-line ART.

Five-year follow up of genotypic resistance patterns in HIV-1 subtype C infected patients in Botswana after failure of thymidine analogue-based regimens.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to establish genotypic resistance profiles among the 4% of Batswana patients who experienced virologic failure while being followed within Botswana's National Antiretroviral Treatment Program between 2002 and 2007. METHODS: At the beginning of the national program in 2002, almost all patients received stavudine (d4T), together with didanosine (ddI), as part of their first nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-based regimen (Group 1). In contrast, the standard of care for all patients subsequently enrolled (2002-2007) included zidovudine/lamivudine (ZDV/3TC) (Group 2). Genotypes were analyzed in 26 patients from Group 1 and 37 patients from Group 2. Associations between mutations were determined using Pearson's correlation coefficient and Jaccard's coefficient of similarity. RESULTS: Seventy-eight percent of genotyped patients possessed mutations associated with protease inhibitor (PI) resistance while 87% and 90%, respectively, exhibited mutations associated with NRTIs and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). The most frequent PI mutations involving resistance to NFV were L90M (25.2%) and D30N (16.2%), but mutations at positions K45Q and D30N were often observed in tandem (P = 60.5, J = 50; p = 0.002; Group 2) alongside Q61E in 42.8% of patients who received ZDV/3TC. Both major patterns of thymidine analogue mutations, TAM 1 (48%) and TAM 2 (59%), were represented in patients from Group 1 and 2, although M184V was higher among individuals who had initially received ddI (61% versus 40.5%). In contrast, L74V was more frequent among individuals from Group 2 (16.2% versus 7.7%). Differences in regard to NNRTI mutations were also observed between Group 1 and Group 2 patients. CONCLUSION: Despite a low rate of therapeutic failure (4%) among these patients, those who failed possessed high numbers of resistance mutations as well as novel resistance mutations and/or polymorphisms at sites within reverse transcriptase and protease.

Overestimates of survival after HAART: implications for global scale-up efforts.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the effectiveness of global antiretroviral therapy scale-up efforts in resource-limited settings is a global health priority, but is complicated by high rates of losses to follow-up after treatment initiation. Determining definitive outcomes of these lost patients, and the effects of losses to follow-up on estimates of survival and risk factors for death after HAART, are key to monitoring the effectiveness of global HAART scale-up efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cohort study comparing clinical outcomes and risk factors for death after HAART initiation as reported before and after tracing of patients lost to follow-up was conducted in Botswana's National Antiretroviral Therapy Program. 410 HIV-infected adults consecutively presenting for HAART were evaluated. The main outcome measures were death or loss to follow-up within the first year after HAART initiation. Of 68 patients initially categorized as lost, over half (58.8%) were confirmed dead after tracing. Patient tracing resulted in reporting of significantly lower survival rates when death was used as the outcome and losses to follow-up were censored [1-year Kaplan Meier survival estimate 0.92 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.94 before tracing and 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.86) after tracing, log rank P<0.001]. In addition, a significantly increased risk of death after HAART among men [adjusted hazard ratio 1.74 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.87)] would have been missed had patients not been traced [adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-3.05)]. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Due to high rates of death among patients lost to follow-up after HAART, survival rates may be inaccurate and important risk factors for death may be missed if patients are not actively traced. Patient tracing and uniform reporting of outcomes after HAART are needed to enable accurate monitoring of global HAART scale-up efforts.