Closing the Mediterranean Marine Floating Plastic Mass Budget: Inverse Modeling of Sources and Sinks.

Estimates of plastic inputs into the ocean are orders of magnitude larger than what is found in the surface waters. This can be due to discrepancies in the sources of plastic released into the ocean but can also be explained by the fact that it is not well-known what the most dominant sinks of marine plastics are and on what time scales these operate. To get a better understanding on possible sources and sinks, an inverse modeling methodology is presented here for a Lagrangian ocean model, estimating floating plastic quantities in the Mediterranean Sea. Field measurements of plastic concentrations in the Mediterranean are used to inform parametrizations defining various sources of marine plastics and removal of plastic particles because of beaching and sinking. The parameters of the model are found using inverse modeling, by comparison of model results and measurements of floating plastic concentrations. Time scales for the sinks are found, and likely sources of plastics can be ranked in importance. A new mass balance is made for floating plastics in the Mediterranean: for 2015, there is an estimated input of 2100-3400 tonnes, and of plastics released since 2006, about 170-420 tonnes remain afloat in the surface waters, 49-63% ended up on coastlines, and 37-51% have sunk down.

The effect of state dependence in a delay differential equation model for the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

Delay differential equations (DDEs) have been used successfully in the past to model climate systems at a conceptual level. An important aspect of these models is the existence of feedback loops that feature a delay time, usually associated with the time required to transport energy through the atmosphere and/or oceans across the globe. So far, such delays are generally assumed to be constant. Recent studies have demonstrated that even simple DDEs with non-constant delay times, which change depending on the state of the system, can produce surprisingly rich dynamical behaviour. Here, we present arguments for the state dependence of the delay in a DDE model for the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the climate system. We then conduct a bifurcation analysis by means of continuation software to investigate the effect of state dependence in the delay on the observed dynamics of the system. More specifically, we show that the underlying delay-induced structure of resonance regions may change considerably in the presence of state dependence. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nonlinear dynamics of delay systems'.

Climate network stability measures of El Niño variability.

One of the crucial aspects that is currently limiting the success of El Niño predictions is the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate state. This property determines whether or not sea surface temperature perturbations will be amplified by coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The so-called Bjerknes stability index has been developed for this purpose, but its evaluation is severely constrained by data availability. Here, we present new network based measures of the stability of the Pacific climate state. These measures can be evaluated by using only sea surface temperature data and efficiently indicate whether positive feedbacks of perturbations to the climate state will occur.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators.

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package.

We introduce the pyunicorn (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. pyunicorn is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics, or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, visibility graphs, and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology.

Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.

Slow response of surface water temperature to fast atmospheric variability reveals mixing heterogeneity in a deep lake.

Slow and long-term variations of sea surface temperature anomalies have been interpreted as a red-noise response of the ocean surface mixed layer to fast and random atmospheric perturbations. How fast the atmospheric noise is damped depends on the mixed layer depth. In this work we apply this theory to determine the relevant spatial and temporal scales of surface layer thermal inertia in lakes. We fit a first order auto-regressive model to the satellite-derived Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) anomalies in Lake Garda, Italy. The fit provides a time scale, from which we determine the mixed layer depth. The obtained result shows a clear spatial pattern resembling the morphological features of the lake, with larger values (7.18± 0.3 m) in the deeper northwestern basin, and smaller values (3.18 ± 0.24 m) in the southern shallower basin. Such variations are confirmed by in-situ measurements in three monitoring points in the lake and connect to the first Empirical Orthogonal Function of satellite-derived LSWT and chlorophyll-a concentration. Evidence from our case study open a new perspective for interpreting lake-atmosphere interactions and confirm that remotely sensed variables, typically associated with properties of the surface layers, also carry information on the relevant spatial and temporal scales of mixed-layer processes.

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model.

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.

Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events.

Superimposed on long-term late Paleocene-early Eocene warming (~59 to 52 million years ago), Earth's climate experienced a series of abrupt perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and global warming. Here, we examine the three most punctuated events of this period, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and 3, to probe whether they were initiated by climate-driven carbon cycle tipping points. Specifically, we analyze the dynamics of climate and carbon cycle indicators acquired from marine sediments to detect changes in Earth system resilience and to identify positive feedbacks. Our analyses suggest a loss of Earth system resilience toward all three events. Moreover, dynamic convergent cross mapping reveals intensifying coupling between the carbon cycle and climate during the long-term warming trend, supporting increasingly dominant climate forcing of carbon cycle dynamics during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum when these recurrent global warming events became more frequent.

Laboratory experiments reveal intrinsic self-sustained oscillations in ocean relevant rotating fluid flows.

Several ocean Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) encounter a lateral gap along their path. Examples are the Kuroshio Current penetrating into the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait and the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current leaping from the Yucatan peninsula to Florida as part of the Gulf Stream system. Here, we present results on WBC relevant flows, generated in the world's largest rotating platform, where the Earth's sphericity necessary to support WBCs is realized by an equivalent topographic effect. The fluid is put in motion by a pump system, which produces a current that is stationary far from the gap. When the jet reaches the gap entrance, time-dependent patterns with complex spatial structures appear, with the jet leaking, leaping or looping through the gap. The occurrence of these intrinsic self-sustained periodic or aperiodic oscillations depending on current intensity is well known in nonlinear dynamical systems theory and occurs in many real systems. It has been observed here for the first time in real rotating fluid flows and is thought to be highly relevant to explain low-frequency variability in ocean WBCs.

Improved Model-Data Agreement With Strongly Eddying Ocean Simulations in the Middle-Late Eocene.

Model simulations of past climates are increasingly found to compare well with proxy data at a global scale, but regional discrepancies remain. A persistent issue in modeling past greenhouse climates has been the temperature difference between equatorial and (sub-)polar regions, which is typically much larger in simulations than proxy data suggest. Particularly in the Eocene, multiple temperature proxies suggest extreme warmth in the southwest Pacific Ocean, where model simulations consistently suggest temperate conditions. Here, we present new global ocean model simulations at 0.1° horizontal resolution for the middle-late Eocene. The eddies in the high-resolution model affect poleward heat transport and local time-mean flow in critical regions compared to the noneddying flow in the standard low-resolution simulations. As a result, the high-resolution simulations produce higher surface temperatures near Antarctica and lower surface temperatures near the equator compared to the low-resolution simulations, leading to better correspondence with proxy reconstructions. Crucially, the high-resolution simulations are also much more consistent with biogeographic patterns in endemic-Antarctic and low-latitude-derived plankton, and thus resolve the long-standing discrepancy of warm subpolar ocean temperatures and isolating polar gyre circulation. The results imply that strongly eddying model simulations are required to reconcile discrepancies between regional proxy data and models, and demonstrate the importance of accurate regional paleobathymetry for proxy-model comparisons.

Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections.

Current sea-level projections are based on climate models in which the effects of ocean eddies are parameterized. Here, we investigate the effect of ocean eddies on global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) projections, using climate model simulations. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution and volume transport. These quantities control the rate of basal melt, which eventually results in Antarctic mass loss. In a model with resolved ocean eddies, the Southern Ocean temperature changes lead to a smaller Antarctic GMSLR contribution compared to the same model in which eddies are parameterized. As a result, the projected GMSLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects and consequently affect GMSLR projections.

A multi-site, year-round turbulence microstructure atlas for the deep perialpine Lake Garda.

A multi-site, year-round dataset comprising a total of 606 high-resolution turbulence microstructure profiles of shear and temperature gradient in the upper 100 m depth is made available for Lake Garda (Italy). Concurrent meteorological data were measured from the fieldwork boat at the location of the turbulence measurements. During the fieldwork campaign (March 2017-June 2018), four different sites were sampled on a monthly basis, following a standardized protocol in terms of time-of-day and locations of the measurements. Additional monitoring activity included a 24-h campaign and sampling at other sites. Turbulence quantities were estimated, quality-checked, and merged with water quality and meteorological data to produce a unique turbulence atlas for a lake. The dataset is open to a wide range of possible applications, including research on the variability of turbulent mixing across seasons and sites (demersal vs pelagic zones) and driven by different factors (lake-valley breezes vs buoyancy-driven convection), validation of hydrodynamic lake models, as well as technical studies on the use of shear and temperature microstructure sensors.

Noise-induced transitions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP5 models.

By studying transition probabilities of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models, we revisit one of the stability indicators of the AMOC, i.e. the freshwater transport carried by the AMOC at the southern boundary of the Atlantic basin. A correction to this indicator, based on the transition probabilities, is suggested to measure whether an AMOC state is in a multiple equilibrium regime or not. As a consequence, the AMOC of all CMIP5 models considered is in a multiple equilibrium regime and hence, in principle, a collapsed AMOC state should exist in each of these models. The results further demonstrate the dependence of the Atlantic surface freshwater flux on the AMOC and the impact of extreme events in the AMOC on temperatures in the North Atlantic region.

Resolution dependency of sinking Lagrangian particles in ocean general circulation models.

Any type of non-buoyant material in the ocean is transported horizontally by currents during its sinking journey. This lateral transport can be far from negligible for small sinking velocities. To estimate its magnitude and direction, the material is often modelled as a set of Lagrangian particles advected by current velocities that are obtained from Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). State-of-the-art OGCMs are strongly eddying, similar to the real ocean, providing results with a spatial resolution on the order of 10 km on a daily frequency. While the importance of eddies in OGCMs is well-appreciated in the physical oceanographic community, other marine research communities may not. Further, many long term climate modelling simulations (e.g. in paleoclimate) rely on lower spatial resolution models that do not capture mesoscale features. To demonstrate how much the absence of mesoscale features in low-resolution models influences the Lagrangian particle transport, we simulate the transport of sinking Lagrangian particles using low- and high-resolution global OGCMs, and assess the lateral transport differences resulting from the difference in spatial and temporal model resolution. We find major differences between the transport in the non-eddying OGCM and in the eddying OGCM. Addition of stochastic noise to the particle trajectories in the non-eddying OGCM parameterises the effect of eddies well in some cases (e.g. in the North Pacific gyre). The effect of a coarser temporal resolution (once every 5 days versus monthly) is smaller compared to a coarser spatial resolution (0.1° versus 1° horizontally). We recommend to use sinking Lagrangian particles, representing e.g. marine snow, microplankton or sinking plastic, only with velocity fields from eddying Eulerian OGCMs, requiring high-resolution models in e.g. paleoceanographic studies. To increase the accessibility of our particle trace simulations, we launch planktondrift.science.uu.nl, an online tool to reconstruct the surface origin of sedimentary particles in a specific location.

Ocean model resolution dependence of Caribbean sea-level projections.

Sea-level rise poses severe threats to coastal and low-lying regions around the world, by exacerbating coastal erosion and flooding. Adequate sea-level projections over the next decades are important for both decision making and for the development of successful adaptation strategies in these coastal and low-lying regions to climate change. Ocean components of climate models used in the most recent sea-level projections do not explicitly resolve ocean mesoscale processes. Only a few effects of these mesoscale processes are represented in these models, which leads to errors in the simulated properties of the ocean circulation that affect sea-level projections. Using the Caribbean Sea as an example region, we demonstrate a strong dependence of future sea-level change on ocean model resolution in simulations with a global climate model. The results indicate that, at least for the Caribbean Sea, adequate regional projections of sea-level change can only be obtained with ocean models which capture mesoscale processes.

Importance of planetary rotation for ventilation processes in deep elongated lakes: Evidence from Lake Garda (Italy).

Ventilation mechanisms in deep lakes are crucial for their ecosystem functioning. In this paper we show the relevance of planetary rotation in affecting ventilation processes in relatively narrow, elongated deep lakes. Through a recent field campaign in Lake Garda (Italy), we provide explicit observational evidence for the development of lake-wide wind-driven secondary flows influenced by the Coriolis force in a narrow lake. The interpretation of these observations is supported by results from numerical simulations with a three-dimensional model of the lake. The results add an additional element, often neglected in narrow lakes, to be carefully considered when assessing the response of lakes to external forcing and climate change.

Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.