Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems.

Managing social-ecological systems toward desirable regimes requires learning about the system being managed while preparing for many possible futures. Adaptive management (AM) and scenario planning (SP) are two systems management approaches that separately use learning to reduce uncertainties and employ planning to manage irreducible uncertainties, respectively. However, each of these approaches have limitations that confound management of social-ecological systems. Here, we introduce iterative scenarios (IS), a systems management approach that is a hybrid of the scopes and relationships to uncertainty and controllability of AM and SP that combines the "iterativeness" of AM and futures planning of SP. Iterative scenarios is appropriate for situations with high uncertainty about whether a management action will lead to intended outcomes, the desired benefits are numerous and cross-scale, and it is difficult to account for the social implications around the natural resource management options. The value of iterative scenarios is demonstrated by applying the approach to green infrastructure futures for a neighborhood in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., that had experienced long-term, systemic disinvestment. The Cleveland green infrastructure project was particularly well suited to the IS approach given that learning about environmental factors was necessary and achievable, but what would be socially desirable and possible was unknown. However, iterative scenarios is appropriate for many social-ecological systems where uncertainty is high as IS accommodates real-world complexity faced by management.

Rapid Salivary IgG Antibody Screening for Hepatitis A.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is a common infection that is transmitted through the fecal-oral route, shed in the stool of infected individuals, and spread either by direct contact or by ingesting contaminated food or water. Each year, approximately 1.4 million acute cases are reported globally with a major risk factor for exposure being low household socioeconomic status. Recent trends show a decrease in anti-HAV antibodies in the general population, with concomitant increases in the numbers of HAV outbreaks. In line with a recreational water study, this effort aims to assess the prevalence of salivary IgG antibodies against HAV and subsequent incident infections (or immunoconversions) in visitors to a tropical beach impacted by a publicly owned treatment works (POTW). We applied a multiplex immunoassay to serially collected saliva samples gathered from study participants who recreated at Boquerón Beach, Puerto Rico. Analysis of assay results revealed an immunoprevalence rate of 16.17% for HAV with 1.43% of the cohort immunoconverting to HAV. Among those who immunoconverted, 10% reported chronic gastrointestinal symptoms and none experienced diarrhea. Tests on water samples indicated good water quality with low levels of fecal indicator bacteria; however, the collection and analysis of saliva samples afforded the ability to detect HAV infections in beachgoers. This rapid assay serves as a cost-effective tool for examining exposure to environmental pathogens and can provide critical information to policy makers, water quality experts, and risk assessment professionals seeking to improve and protect recreational water and public health.

Panarchy: opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management.

Addressing unexpected events and uncertainty represents one of the grand challenges of the Anthropocene, yet ecosystem management is constrained by existing policy and laws that were not formulated to deal with today's accelerating rates of environmental change. In many cases, managing for simple regulatory standards has resulted in adverse outcomes, necessitating innovative approaches for dealing with complex social-ecological problems. We highlight a project in the US Great Plains where panarchy - a conceptual framework that emerged from resilience - was implemented at project onset to address the continued inability to halt large-scale transition from grass-to-tree dominance in central North America. We review how panarchy was applied, the initial outcomes and evidence for policy reform, and the opportunities and challenges for which it could serve as a useful model to contrast with traditional ecosystem management approaches.

An information theory-based approach to assessing spatial patterns in complex systems.

Given the intensity and frequency of environmental change, the linked and cross-scale nature of social-ecological systems, and the proliferation of big data, methods that can help synthesize complex system behavior over a geographical area are of great value. Fisher information evaluates order in data and has been established as a robust and effective tool for capturing changes in system dynamics, including the detection of regimes and regime shifts. Methods developed to compute Fisher information can accommodate multivariate data of various types and requires no a priori decisions about system drivers, making it a unique and powerful tool. However, the approach has primarily been used to evaluate temporal patterns. In its sole application to spatial data, Fisher information successfully detected regimes in terrestrial and aquatic systems over transects. Although the selection of adjacently positioned sampling stations provided a natural means of ordering the data, such an approach limits the types of questions that can be answered in a spatial context. Here, we expand the approach to develop a method for more fully capturing spatial dynamics. Results reflect changes in the index that correspond with geographical patterns and demonstrate the utility of the method in uncovering hidden spatial trends in complex systems.

The distribution and role of functional abundance in cross-scale resilience.

The cross-scale resilience model suggests that system-level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species' functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental resources and species are present and the functional roles species play but does not inform us about how much resource is present or how much function is provided. In short, it does not account for abundance in the distribution of species and their functional roles within and across the scales of a system. We detail the ways in which we would expect species' abundance to be relevant to the cross-scale resilience model based on the extensive abundance literature in ecology. We also put forward a series of testable hypotheses that would improve our ability to anticipate and quantify how resilience is generated, and how ecosystems will (or will not) buffer recent rapid global changes. This stream of research may provide an improved foundation for the quantitative evaluation of ecological resilience.

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems.

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem.

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

Discontinuities, cross-scale patterns, and the organization of ecosystems.

Ecological structures and processes occur at specific spatiotemporal scales, and interactions that occur across multiple scales mediate scale-specific (e.g., individual, community, local, or regional) responses to disturbance. Despite the importance of scale, explicitly incorporating a multi-scale perspective into research and management actions remains a challenge. The discontinuity hypothesis provides a fertile avenue for addressing this problem by linking measureable proxies to inherent scales of structure within ecosystems. Here we outline the conceptual framework underlying discontinuities and review the evidence supporting the discontinuity hypothesis in ecological systems. Next we explore the utility of this approach for understanding cross-scale patterns and the organization of ecosystems by describing recent advances for examining nonlinear responses to disturbance and phenomena such as extinctions, invasions, and resilience. To stimulate new research, we present methods for performing discontinuity analysis, detail outstanding knowledge gaps, and discuss potential approaches for addressing these gaps.

Assessing sustainability in real urban systems: the Greater Cincinnati Metropolitan Area in Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana.

Urban systems have a number of factors (i.e., economic, social, and environmental) that can potentially impact growth, change, and transition. As such, assessing and managing these systems is a complex challenge. While, tracking trends of key variables may provide some insight, identifying the critical characteristics that truly impact the dynamic behavior of these systems is difficult. As an integrated approach to evaluate real urban systems, this work contributes to the research on scientific techniques for assessing sustainability. Specifically, it proposes a practical methodology based on the estimation of dynamic order, for identifying stable and unstable periods of sustainable or unsustainable trends with Fisher Information (FI) metric. As a test case, the dynamic behavior of the City, Suburbs, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) of Cincinnati was evaluated by using 29 social and 11 economic variables to characterize each system from 1970 to 2009. Air quality variables were also selected to describe the MSA's environmental component (1980-2009). Results indicate systems dynamic started to change from about 1995 for the social variables and about 2000 for the economic and environmental characteristics.

Evaluating the sustainability of a regional system using Fisher information in the San Luis Basin, Colorado.

This paper describes the theory, data, and methodology necessary for using Fisher information to assess the sustainability of the San Luis Basin (SLB) regional system over time. Fisher information was originally developed as a measure of the information content in data and is an important method in information theory. Our adaptation of Fisher information provides a means of monitoring the variables of a system to characterize dynamic order, and, therefore, its regimes and regime shifts. This work is part of the SLB Sustainability Metrics Project, which aimed to evaluate movement over time towards or away from regional sustainability. One of the key goals of this project was to use readily available data to assess the sustainability of the system including its environmental, social and economic aspects. For this study, Fisher information was calculated for fifty-three variables which characterize the consumption of food and energy, agricultural production, environmental characteristics, demographic properties and changes in land use for the SLB system from 1980 to 2005. Our analysis revealed that while the system displayed small changes in dynamic order over time with a slight decreasing trend near the end of the period, there is no indication of a regime shift. Therefore, the SLB system is stable with very slight movement away from sustainability in more recent years.

Spatiotemporal variability in Swedish lake ecosystems.

Studying ecosystem dynamics is critical to monitoring and managing linked systems of humans and nature. Due to the growth of tools and techniques for collecting data, information on the condition of these systems is more widely available. While there are a variety of approaches for mining and assessing data, there is a need for methods to detect latent characteristics in ecosystems linked to temporal and spatial patterns of change. Resilience-based approaches have been effective at not only identifying environmental change but also providing warning in advance of critical transitions in social-ecological systems (SES). In this study, we examine the usefulness of one such method, Fisher Information (FI) for spatiotemporal analysis. FI is used to assess patterns in data and has been established as an effective tool for capturing complex system dynamics to include regimes and regime shifts. We employed FI to assess the biophysical condition of eighty-five Swedish lakes from 1996-2018. Results showed that FI captured spatiotemporal changes in the Swedish lakes and identified distinct spatial patterns above and below the Limes Norrlandicus, a hard ecotone boundary which separates northern and southern ecoregions in Sweden. Further, it revealed that spatial variance changed approaching this boundary. Our results demonstrate the utility of this resilience-based approach for spatiotemporal and spatial regimes analyses linked to monitoring and managing critical watersheds and waterbodies impacted by accelerating environmental change.

Salivary Antibodies against Multiple Environmental Pathogens Found in Individuals Recreating at an Iowa Beach.

Detecting environmental exposures and mitigating their impacts are growing global public health challenges. Antibody tests show great promise and have emerged as fundamental tools for large-scale exposure studies. Here, we apply, demonstrate and validate the utility of a salivary antibody multiplex immunoassay in measuring antibody prevalence and immunoconversions to six pathogens commonly found in the environment. The study aimed to assess waterborne infections in consenting beachgoers recreating at an Iowa riverine beach by measuring immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against select pathogens in serially collected saliva samples. Results showed that nearly 80% of beachgoers had prior exposures to at least one of the targeted pathogens at the beginning of the study. Most of these exposures were to norovirus GI.1 (59.41%), norovirus GII.4 (58.79%) and Toxoplasma gondii (22.80%) and over half (56.28%) of beachgoers had evidence of previous exposure to multiple pathogens. Of individuals who returned samples for each collection period, 6.11% immunoconverted to one or more pathogens, largely to noroviruses (GI.1: 3.82% and GII.4: 2.29%) and T. gondii (1.53%). Outcomes of this effort illustrate that the multiplex immunoassay presented here serves as an effective tool for evaluating health risks by providing valuable information on the occurrence of known and emerging pathogens in population surveillance studies.

Time scale of resilience loss: Implications for managing critical transitions in water quality.

Regime shifts involving critical transitions are a type of rapid ecological change that are difficult to predict, but may be preceded by decreases in resilience. Time series statistics like lag-1 autocorrelation may be useful for anticipating resilience declines; however, more study is needed to determine whether the dynamics of autocorrelation depend on the resolution of the time series being analyzed, i.e., whether they are time-scale dependent. Here, we examined timeseries simulated from a lake eutrophication model and gathered from field measurements. The field study involved collecting high frequency chlorophyll fluorescence data from an unmanipulated reference lake and a second lake undergoing experimental fertilization to induce a critical transition in the form of an algal bloom. As part of the experiment, the fertilization was halted in response to detected early warnings of the algal bloom identified by increased autocorrelation. We tested these datasets for time-scale dependence in the dynamics of lag-1 autocorrelation and found that in both the simulation and field experiment, the dynamics of autocorrelation were similar across time scales. In the simulated time series, autocorrelation increased exponentially approaching algal bloom development, and in the field experiment, the difference in autocorrelation between the manipulated and reference lakes increased sharply. These results suggest that, as an early warning indicator, autocorrelation may be robust to the time scale of the analysis. Given that a time scale can be shortened by increasing sampling frequency, or lengthened by aggregating data during analysis, these results have important implications for management as they demonstrate the potential for detecting early warning signals over a wide range of monitoring frequencies and without requiring analysts to make situation-specific decisions regarding aggregation. Such an outcome provides promise that data collection procedures, especially by automated sensors, may be used to monitor and manage ecosystem resilience without the need for strict attention to time scale.

Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the coastal systems of southern Louisiana.

Natural disasters, such as hurricanes and forest fires, could trigger collapse and reorganization of social-ecological systems. In the face of external perturbations, a resilient system would have capacity to absorb impacts, adapt to change, learn, and if needed, reorganize within the same regime. Within this context, we asked how human and natural systems in Louisiana responded to Hurricane Katrina, and how the natural disaster altered the status of these systems. This paper discusses community resilience to natural hazards and addresses the limitations for assessing disaster resilience. Furthermore, we assessed social and environmental change in New Orleans and southern Louisiana through both a spatial and temporal lens (i.e., pre- and post-Katrina). By analyzing changes in system condition using social, economic and environmental factors, we identified some of the characteristics of the system's reorganization trajectories. Our results suggest that although the ongoing population recovery may be a sign of revitalization, the city and metropolitan area continue to face socioeconomic inequalities and environmental vulnerability to natural disasters. Further, the spatial distribution of social-ecological condition over time reveals certain levels of change and reorganization after Katrina, but the reorganization did not translate into greater equity. This effort presents an enhanced approach to assessing social-ecological change pre and post disturbance and provides a way forward for characterizing pertinent aspects of disaster resilience.

Visitors to a Tropical Marine Beach Show Evidence of Immunoconversions to Multiple Waterborne Pathogens.

Determining infections from environmental exposures, particularly from waterborne pathogens is a challenging proposition. The study design must be rigorous and account for numerous factors including study population selection, sample collection, storage, and processing, as well as data processing and analysis. These challenges are magnified when it is suspected that individuals may potentially be infected by multiple pathogens at the same time. Previous work demonstrated the effectiveness of a salivary antibody multiplex immunoassay in detecting the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to multiple waterborne pathogens and helped identify asymptomatic norovirus infections in visitors to Boquerón Beach, Puerto Rico. In this study, we applied the immunoassay to three serially collected samples from study participants within the same population to assess immunoconversions (incident infections) to six waterborne pathogens: Helicobacter pylori, Campylobacter jejuni, Toxoplasma gondii, hepatitis A virus, and noroviruses GI. I and GII.4. Further, we examined the impact of sampling on the detection of immunoconversions by comparing the traditional immunoconversion definition based on two samples to criteria developed to capture trends in three sequential samples collected from study participants. The expansion to three samples makes it possible to capture the IgG antibody responses within the survey population to more accurately assess the frequency of immunoconversions to target pathogens. Based on the criteria developed, results showed that when only two samples from each participant were used in the analysis, 25.9% of the beachgoers immunoconverted to at least one pathogen; however, the addition of the third sample reduced immunoconversions to 6.5%. Of these incident infections, the highest levels were to noroviruses followed by T. gondii. Moreover, many individuals displayed evidence of immunoconversions to multiple pathogens. This study suggests that detection of simultaneous infections is possible, with far reaching consequences for the population. The results may lead to further studies to understand the complex interactions that occur within the body as the immune system attempts to ward off these infections. Such an approach is critical to our understanding of medically important synergistic or antagonistic interactions and may provide valuable and critical information to public health officials, water treatment personnel, and environmental managers.

A method to detect discontinuities in census data.

The distribution of pattern across scales has predictive power in the analysis of complex systems. Discontinuity approaches remain a fruitful avenue of research in the quest for quantitative measures of resilience because discontinuity analysis provides an objective means of identifying scales in complex systems and facilitates delineation of hierarchical patterns in processes, structure, and resources. However, current discontinuity methods have been considered too subjective, too complicated and opaque, or have become computationally obsolete; given the ubiquity of discontinuities in ecological and other complex systems, a simple and transparent method for detection is needed. In this study, we present a method to detect discontinuities in census data based on resampling of a neutral model and provide the R code used to run the analyses. This method has the potential for advancing basic and applied ecological research.

Agroecology for the Shrinking City.

Many cities are experiencing long-term declines in population and economic activity. As a result, frameworks for urban sustainability need to address the unique challenges and opportunities of such shrinking cities. Shrinking, particularly in the U.S., has led to extensive vacant land. The abundance of vacant land reflects a loss of traditional urban amenities, economic opportunity, neighbors, businesses, and even basic city services and often occurs in neighborhoods with socially and economically vulnerable or underserved populations. However, vacant land also provides opportunities, including the space to invest in green infrastructure that can provide ecosystem services and support urban sustainability. Achieving desirable amenities that provide ecosystem services from vacant land is the central tenet of a recent urban sustainability framework termed ecology for the shrinking city. An agroecological approach could operationalize ecology for the shrinking city to both manage vacancy and address ecosystem service goals. Developing an agroecology in shrinking cities not only secures provisioning services that use an active and participatory approach of vacant land management but also transforms and enhances regulating and supporting services. The human and cultural dimensions of agroecology create the potential for social-ecological innovations that can support sustainable transformations in shrinking cities. Overall, the strength of agroecological principles guiding a green infrastructure strategy stems from its explicit focus on how individuals and communities can shape their environment at multiple scales to produce outcomes that reflect their social and cultural context. Specifically, the shaping of the environment provides a pathway for communities to build agency and manage for resilience in urban social-ecological systems. Agroecology for the shrinking city can support desirable transformations, but to be meaningful, we recognize that it must be part of a greater strategy that addresses larger systemic issues facing shrinking cities and their residents.

Asymptomatic norovirus infection associated with swimming at a tropical beach: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Swimming in fecally-contaminated waterbodies can result in gastrointestinal infections. However, the pathogenic microorganisms responsible are not well understood because sporadic cases of illness are not reported completely, exposure information is often not collected, and epidemiology studies rely on self-reported symptoms. Noroviruses are considered a likely cause because they are found in high densities in sewage, resistant to wastewater treatment and survive in the environment. In this study, saliva samples were collected from subjects at a beach in Puerto Rico and tested for evidence of norovirus-specific IgG responses as an indicator of incident norovirus infection. METHODS: Saliva samples were collected from 1298 participants using an oral swab. Samples were collected on the day of the beach visit (S1); after 10-12 days (S2); and after three weeks (S3). Saliva was tested for IgG responses to GI.1 and GII.4 noroviruses using a microsphere based multiplex salivary immunoassay. Immunoconversion was defined as a four-fold increase in median fluorescence intensity (MFI) from S1 to S2 with the S3 sample at least three times above the S1 MFI. RESULTS: Thirty-four subjects (2.6%) immunoconverted to GI.1 or GII.4 norovirus. Swimmers who immersed their head in water had a higher rate of immunoconversion (3.4%), compared to either non-swimmers (0.0%, p = 0.003) or waders and non-swimmers combined (0.4%, Odds Ratio: 5.07, 95% Confidence Interval:1.48-17.00). Immunoconversion was not associated with gastrointestinal symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate an association between swimming at a beach impacted by fecal contamination and asymptomatic norovirus infection. The findings implicate recreational water as potentially important transmission pathway for norovirus infection.

Toward a leading indicator of catastrophic shifts in complex systems: Assessing changing conditions in nation states.

The 20th century was characterized by substantial change on a global scale. There were multiple wars and unrest, social and political transitions, technological innovation and widespread development that impacted every corner of the earth. In order to assess the sustainability implications of these changes, we conducted a study of three advanced nations particularly affected during this time: France, Germany and the United States (USA). All three nation states withstood these changes and yet continued to thrive, which speaks to their resilience. However, we were interested in determining whether any of these countries underwent a regime shift during this period and if they did, whether there was advanced warning that transition was imminent. This study seeks to evaluate systemic trends in each country by exploring key variables that describe its condition over time. We use Fisher Information to assess changing conditions in the nation states based on trends in social, economic and environmental variables and employ Bayes Theorem as an objective means of determining whether declines in Fisher information provide early warning signals of critical transitions. Results indicate that while the United States was relatively stable and France experienced a great deal of change during this period, only Germany appeared to undergo a regime shift. Further, each country exhibited decreasing Fisher information when approaching significant events (e.g., World Wars, Great Depression), and reflected unique mechanisms linked to dynamic changes in each nation state. This study highlights the potential of using trends in Fisher information as a sentinel for evaluating dynamic change and assessing resilience in coupled human and natural systems.

People and water: Exploring the social-ecological condition of watersheds of the United States.

A recent paradigm shift from purely biophysical towards social-ecological assessment of watersheds has been proposed to understand, monitor, and manipulate the myriad interactions between human well-being and the ecosystem services that watersheds provide. However, large-scale, quantitative studies in this endeavour remain limited. We utilised two newly developed 'big-data' sets-the Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) and the Human Well-Being Index (HWBI)-to explore the social-ecological condition of watersheds throughout the conterminous U.S., and identified environmental and socio-economic influences on watershed integrity and human well-being. Mean county IWI was highly associated with ecoregion, industry-dependence, and state, in a spatially-explicit regression model (R2 = 0.77, P < 0.001), whereas HWBI was not (R2 = 0.31, P < 0.001). HWBI is likely influenced by factors not explored here, such as governance structure and formal and informal organisations and institutions. 'Win-win' situations in which both IWI and HWBI were above the 75th percentile were observed in much of Utah, Colorado, and New Hampshire, and lessons from governance that has resulted in desirable outcomes might be learnt from here. Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, along with large parts of the desert southwest, had intact watersheds but low HWBI, representing areas worthy of further investigation of how ecosystem services might be utilised to improve well-being. The Temperate Prairies and Central USA Plains had widespread areas of low IWI but high HWBI, likely a result of historic exploitation of watershed resources to improve well-being, particularly in farming-dependent counties. The lower Mississippi Valley had low IWI and HWBI, which is likely related to historical (temporal) and upstream (spatial) impacts on both watershed integrity and well-being. The results emphasise the importance of considering spatial and temporal trade-offs when utilising the ecosystem services provided by watersheds to improve human well-being.