Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, has been shown to reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. Whether semaglutide can reduce cardiovascular risk associated with overweight and obesity in the absence of diabetes is unknown. METHODS: In a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, event-driven superiority trial, we enrolled patients 45 years of age or older who had preexisting cardiovascular disease and a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 27 or greater but no history of diabetes. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 2.4 mg or placebo. The primary cardiovascular end point was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in a time-to-first-event analysis. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 17,604 patients were enrolled; 8803 were assigned to receive semaglutide and 8801 to receive placebo. The mean (±SD) duration of exposure to semaglutide or placebo was 34.2±13.7 months, and the mean duration of follow-up was 39.8±9.4 months. A primary cardiovascular end-point event occurred in 569 of the 8803 patients (6.5%) in the semaglutide group and in 701 of the 8801 patients (8.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.90; P<0.001). Adverse events leading to permanent discontinuation of the trial product occurred in 1461 patients (16.6%) in the semaglutide group and 718 patients (8.2%) in the placebo group (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity but without diabetes, weekly subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 2.4 mg was superior to placebo in reducing the incidence of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke at a mean follow-up of 39.8 months. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; SELECT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03574597.).

Semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with obesity and prevalent heart failure: a prespecified analysis of the SELECT trial.

BACKGROUND: Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with overweight or obesity, but the effects of this drug on outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure are unknown. We report a prespecified analysis of the effect of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg on ischaemic and heart failure cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to investigate if semaglutide was beneficial in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with a history of heart failure compared with placebo; if there was a difference in outcome in patients designated as having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; and if the efficacy and safety of semaglutide in patients with heart failure was related to baseline characteristics or subtype of heart failure. METHODS: The SELECT trial was a randomised, double-blind, multicentre, placebo-controlled, event-driven phase 3 trial in 41 countries. Adults aged 45 years and older, with a BMI of 27 kg/m2 or greater and established cardiovascular disease were eligible for the study. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) with a block size of four using an interactive web response system in a double-blind manner to escalating doses of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide over 16 weeks to a target dose of 2·4 mg, or placebo. In a prespecified analysis, we examined the effect of semaglutide compared with placebo in patients with and without a history of heart failure at enrolment, subclassified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, or unclassified heart failure. Endpoints comprised MACE (a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death); a composite heart failure outcome (cardiovascular death or hospitalisation or urgent hospital visit for heart failure); cardiovascular death; and all-cause death. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03574597. FINDINGS: Between Oct 31, 2018, and March 31, 2021, 17 604 patients with a mean age of 61·6 years (SD 8·9) and a mean BMI of 33·4 kg/m2 (5·0) were randomly assigned to receive semaglutide (8803 [50·0%] patients) or placebo (8801 [50·0%] patients). 4286 (24·3%) of 17 604 patients had a history of investigator-defined heart failure at enrolment: 2273 (53·0%) of 4286 patients had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, 1347 (31·4%) had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and 666 (15·5%) had unclassified heart failure. Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with and without heart failure. Patients with heart failure had a higher incidence of clinical events. Semaglutide improved all outcome measures in patients with heart failure at random assignment compared with those without heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·60-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·64-0·98 for the heart failure composite endpoint; 0·76, 0·59-0·97 for cardiovascular death; and 0·81, 0·66-1·00 for all-cause death; all pinteraction>0·19). Treatment with semaglutide resulted in improved outcomes in both the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·49-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·58-1·08 for the composite heart failure endpoint) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction groups (0·69, 0·51-0·91 for MACE; 0·75, 0·52-1·07 for the composite heart failure endpoint), although patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had higher absolute event rates than those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. For MACE and the heart failure composite, there were no significant differences in benefits across baseline age, sex, BMI, New York Heart Association status, and diuretic use. Serious adverse events were less frequent with semaglutide versus placebo, regardless of heart failure subtype. INTERPRETATION: In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diease and overweight or obesity, treatment with semaglutide 2·4 mg reduced MACE and composite heart failure endpoints compared with placebo in those with and without clinical heart failure, regardless of heart failure subtype. Our findings could facilitate prescribing and result in improved clinical outcomes for this patient group. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

Semaglutide versus placebo in patients with heart failure and mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction: a pooled analysis of the SELECT, FLOW, STEP-HFpEF, and STEP-HFpEF DM randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction (hereafter referred to as HFpEF) is the most common type of heart failure and is associated with a high risk of hospitalisation and death, especially in patients with overweight, obesity, or type 2 diabetes. In the STEP-HFpEF and STEP-HFpEF DM trials, semaglutide improved heart failure-related symptoms and physical limitations in participants with HFpEF. Whether semaglutide also reduces clinical heart failure events in this group remains to be established. METHODS: We conducted a post-hoc pooled, participant-level analysis of four randomised, placebo-controlled trials (SELECT, FLOW, STEP-HFpEF, and STEP-HFpEF DM) to examine the effects of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide (2·4 mg in SELECT, STEP-HFpEF, and STEP-HFpEF DM; 1·0 mg in FLOW) on heart failure events. The STEP-HFpEF and STEP-HFpF DM trials enrolled participants with obesity-related HFpEF, the SELECT trial enrolled participants with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, and the FLOW trial enrolled participants with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. Hence, for this analysis, we include all participants from the STEP-HFpEF trials and those with an investigator-reported history of HFpEF from SELECT and FLOW. The main outcomes for this analysis were the composite endpoint of time to cardiovascular death or first worsening heart failure event (defined as hospitalisation or urgent visit due to heart failure), time to first worsening heart failure event, and time to cardiovascular death. Efficacy and safety endpoints were analysed with the full analysis set (ie, all participants randomly assigned to treatment, according to the intention-to-treat principle). The SELECT, FLOW, STEP-HFpEF, and STEP-HFpEF DM trials are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03574597, NCT03819153, NCT04788511, and NCT04916470, respectively, and all are complete. FINDINGS: Across the four trials, 3743 (16·8%) of 22 282 participants had a history of HFpEF (1914 assigned to semaglutide and 1829 assigned to placebo). In this group of participants with HFpEF, semaglutide reduced the risk of the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure events (103 [5·4%] of 1914 in the semaglutide group had events vs 138 [7·5%] of 1829 in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·69 [95% CI 0·53-0·89]; p=0·0045). Semaglutide also reduced the risk of worsening heart failure events (54 [2·8%] vs 86 [4·7%]; HR 0·59 [0·41-0·82]; p=0·0019). No significant effect on cardiovascular death alone was seen (59 [3·1%] vs 67 [3·7%]; HR 0·82 [0·57-1·16]; p=0·25). A lower proportion of patients treated with semaglutide had serious adverse events than did those who were treated with placebo (572 [29·9%] vs 708 [38·7%]). INTERPRETATION: In patients with HFpEF, semaglutide reduced the risk of the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure events, and worsening heart failure events alone, whereas its effect on cardiovascular death alone was not significant. These data support the use of semaglutide as an efficacious therapy to reduce the risk of clinical heart failure events in patients with HFpEF, for whom few treatment options are currently available. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

Prophylactic tranexamic acid in patients with hematologic malignancy: a placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial.

Evidence of the effectiveness of prophylactic use of tranexamic acid (TXA) in thrombocytopenia is lacking. To determine whether TXA safely reduces bleeding incidence in patients undergoing treatment for hematologic malignancies, a randomized, double-blind clinical trial was conducted from June 2016 through June 2020. Of 3120 screened adults, 356 patients were eligible and enrolled, and 337 patients (mean age, 53.9; 141 [41.8%] women), randomized to 1300 mg TXA orally or 1000 mg TXA through IV (n = 168) vs placebo (n = 169) thrice daily for maximum 30 days. Three hundred thirty patients were activated when their platelet counts fell below 30 000 per µL; 279 (83%) had complete outcome ascertainment. World Health Organization (WHO) grade ≥2 bleeding was observed in the 30 days following activation in 50.3% (73/145) and 54.2% (78/144) of patients in the TXA and placebo groups, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-1.34; P = .44). There was no statistically significant difference in the mean number of platelet transfusions (mean difference, 0.1; 95% CI, -1.9 to 2.0), mean days alive without grade ≥2 bleeding (mean difference, 0.8; 95% CI, -0.4 to 2.0), thrombotic events (6/163 [3.7%] TXA, 9/163 [5.5%] placebo), or deaths due to serious bleeding. Most common adverse events were: diarrhea (116/164 [70.7%] TXA and 114/163 [69.9%] placebo); febrile neutropenia (111/164 [67.7%] TXA, 105/163 [64.4%] placebo); fatigue (106/164 [64.6%] TXA, 109/163 [66.9%] placebo); and nausea (104/164 [63.4%] TXA, 97/163 [59.5%] placebo). Among patients with hematologic malignancy undergoing chemotherapy or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, prophylactic treatment with TXA compared with placebo did not significantly reduce the risk of WHO grade ≥2 bleeding.

Familywise error for multiple time-to-event endpoints in a group sequential design.

We investigate the familywise error rate (FWER) for time-to-event endpoints evaluated using a group sequential design with a hierarchical testing procedure for secondary endpoints. We show that, in this setup, the correlation between the log-rank test statistics at interim and at end of study is not congruent with the canonical correlation derived for normal-distributed endpoints. We show, both theoretically and by simulation, that the correlation also depends on the level of censoring, the hazard rates of the endpoints, and the hazard ratio. To optimize operating characteristics in this complex scenario, we propose a simulation-based method to assess the FWER which, better than the alpha-spending approach, can inform the choice of critical values for testing secondary endpoints.

Neighbourhood context and diagnosed mental health conditions among immigrant and non-immigrant youth: a population-based cohort study in British Columbia, Canada.

PURPOSE: Evidence from systematic reviews suggests that adult immigrants living in areas of higher immigrant density (areas with a higher proportion of foreign-born residents) tend to experience fewer mental health problems-likely through less discrimination, greater access to culturally/linguistically appropriate services, and greater social support. Less is known about how such contexts are associated with mental health during childhood-a key period in the onset and development of many mental health challenges. This study examined associations between neighbourhood immigrant density and youth mental health conditions in British Columbia (BC; Canada). METHODS: Census-derived neighbourhood characteristics were linked to medical records for youth present in ten of BC's largest school districts from age 5 through 19 over the study period (1995-2016; n = 138,090). Occurrence of physician assessed diagnoses of mood and/or anxiety disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and conduct disorder was inferred through International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnostic codes in universal public health insurance records. Multi-level logistic regression was used to model associations between neighbourhood characteristics and odds of diagnoses for each condition; models were stratified by generation status (first-generation: foreign-born; second-generation: Canadian-born to a foreign-born parent; non-immigrant). RESULTS: Higher neighbourhood immigrant density was associated with lower odds of disorders among first-generation immigrant youth (e.g., adjusted odds of mood-anxiety disorders for those in neighbourhoods with the highest immigrant density were 0.67 times lower (95% CI: 0.49, 0.92) than those in neighbourhoods with the lowest immigrant density). Such protective associations generally extended to second-generation and non-immigrant youth, but were-for some disorders-stronger for first-generation than second-generation or non-immigrant youth. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest there may be protective mechanisms associated with higher neighbourhood immigrant density for mental health conditions in immigrant and non-immigrant youth. It is important that future work examines potential pathways by which contextual factors impact immigrant and non-immigrant youth mental health.

Evaluating group-sequential non-inferiority clinical trials following interim stopping: The HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial was a group-sequential non-inferiority trial designed to compare HIV incidence under a novel experimental regimen for HIV prevention, long-acting injectable cabotegravir, with an active-control regimen of daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (brand name Truvada). In March of 2020, just as the trial had completed enrollment, the COVID-19 pandemic threatened to prevent trial participants from attending study visits and obtaining study medication, motivating the study team to update the interim monitoring plan. The Data and Safety Monitoring Board subsequently stopped the trial at the first interim review due to strong early evidence of efficacy. METHODS: Here we describe some unique aspects of the trial's design, monitoring, analysis, and interpretation. We illustrate the importance of computing point estimates, confidence intervals, and p values based on the sampling distribution induced by sequential monitoring. RESULTS: Accurate analysis, decision-making and interpretation of trial results rely on pre-specification of a stopping boundary, including the scale on which the stopping rule will be implemented, the specific test statistics to be calculated, and how the boundary will be adjusted if the available information fraction at interim review is different from planned. After appropriate adjustment for the sampling distribution and overrun, the HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial provided strong evidence that the experimental regimen was superior to the active control. CONCLUSIONS: For the HIV Prevention Trials Network 083 trial, the difference between corrected inferential statistics and naive results was quite small-as will often be the case-nevertheless, it is appropriate to report and publish the most accurate and unbiased statistical results.

Social context factors and refugee children's emotional health.

BACKGROUND: Refugee children face numerous challenges associated with pre-migration trauma and post-migration adaptation. Much research pertaining to refugee children's well-being focuses on psychiatric symptoms. Relatively few studies have examined how social context factors-such as perceptions of peer belonging, and support from adults at home and at school-contribute to the emotional health of refugee children. Informed by social-ecological theories emphasizing dynamic interactions between the contexts in which children develop, we examined associations between social context factors and emotional health in refugee children. METHODS: Data were drawn from a population-based data linkage in British Columbia, Canada. The analytic sample included 682 grade 4 students (Mage 9.2 years; 46.3% female) with a refugee background who responded to the Middle Years Development Instrument (MDI) during the 2010/2011-2016/2017 school years. The MDI is a self-report survey of children's social and emotional competencies and social context factors completed at school. Regression analyses were used to examine associations of social context factors (school climate, supportive adults at school and at home, and peer belonging) with indicators of emotional health (life satisfaction, self-concept, optimism, and sadness). Refugee generation status (first/second) was considered through stratification and testing of interactions with social context factors. RESULTS: Perceived supportive school climate, support from adults in school and at home, and peer belonging were each independently associated with better emotional health. Results were similar for first- and second-generation children. CONCLUSION: Taken together, results suggest a unique role of the school context to refugee children's emotional health. School-based programming that promotes positive school climate can be considered as an important approach to support newcomer refugee children and their families.

Approval policies for modifications to machine learning-based software as a medical device: A study of bio-creep.

Successful deployment of machine learning algorithms in healthcare requires careful assessments of their performance and safety. To date, the FDA approves locked algorithms prior to marketing and requires future updates to undergo separate premarket reviews. However, this negates a key feature of machine learning-the ability to learn from a growing dataset and improve over time. This paper frames the design of an approval policy, which we refer to as an automatic algorithmic change protocol (aACP), as an online hypothesis testing problem. As this process has obvious analogy with noninferiority testing of new drugs, we investigate how repeated testing and adoption of modifications might lead to gradual deterioration in prediction accuracy, also known as "biocreep" in the drug development literature. We consider simple policies that one might consider but do not necessarily offer any error-rate guarantees, as well as policies that do provide error-rate control. For the latter, we define two online error-rates appropriate for this context: bad approval count (BAC) and bad approval and benchmark ratios (BABR). We control these rates in the simple setting of a constant population and data source using policies aACP-BAC and aACP-BABR, which combine alpha-investing, group-sequential, and gate-keeping methods. In simulation studies, bio-creep regularly occurred when using policies with no error-rate guarantees, whereas aACP-BAC and aACP-BABR controlled the rate of bio-creep without substantially impacting our ability to approve beneficial modifications.

Rejoinder to Discussions on "Approval policies for modifications to machine learning-based software as a medical device: A study of bio-creep".

We thank the discussants for sharing their unique perspectives on the problem of designing automatic algorithm change protocols (aACPs) for machine learning-based software as a medical device. Both Pennello et al. and Rose highlighted a number of challenges that arise in real-world settings, and we whole-heartedly agree that substantial extensions of our work are needed to understand if and how aACPs can be safely deployed in practice. Our work demonstrated that aACPs that appear to be harmless may allow for biocreep, even when the data distribution is assumed to be representative and stationary over time. While we investigated two solutions that protect against this specific issue, many more statistical and practical challenges remain and we look forward to future research on this topic.

Efficacy and Safety of Degludec versus Glargine in Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Degludec is an ultralong-acting, once-daily basal insulin that is approved for use in adults, adolescents, and children with diabetes. Previous open-label studies have shown lower day-to-day variability in the glucose-lowering effect and lower rates of hypoglycemia among patients who received degludec than among those who received basal insulin glargine. However, data are lacking on the cardiovascular safety of degludec. METHODS: We randomly assigned 7637 patients with type 2 diabetes to receive either insulin degludec (3818 patients) or insulin glargine U100 (3819 patients) once daily between dinner and bedtime in a double-blind, treat-to-target, event-driven cardiovascular outcomes trial. The primary composite outcome in the time-to-event analysis was the first occurrence of an adjudicated major cardiovascular event (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke) with a prespecified noninferiority margin of 1.3. Adjudicated severe hypoglycemia, as defined by the American Diabetes Association, was the prespecified, multiplicity-adjusted secondary outcome. RESULTS: Of the patients who underwent randomization, 6509 (85.2%) had established cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, or both. At baseline, the mean age was 65.0 years, the mean duration of diabetes was 16.4 years, and the mean (±SD) glycated hemoglobin level was 8.4±1.7%; 83.9% of the patients were receiving insulin. The primary outcome occurred in 325 patients (8.5%) in the degludec group and in 356 (9.3%) in the glargine group (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 1.06; P<0.001 for noninferiority). At 24 months, the mean glycated hemoglobin level was 7.5±1.2% in each group, whereas the mean fasting plasma glucose level was significantly lower in the degludec group than in the glargine group (128±56 vs. 136±57 mg per deciliter, P<0.001). Prespecified adjudicated severe hypoglycemia occurred in 187 patients (4.9%) in the degludec group and in 252 (6.6%) in the glargine group, for an absolute difference of 1.7 percentage points (rate ratio, 0.60; P<0.001 for superiority; odds ratio, 0.73; P<0.001 for superiority). Rates of adverse events did not differ between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for cardiovascular events, degludec was noninferior to glargine with respect to the incidence of major cardiovascular events. (Funded by Novo Nordisk and others; DEVOTE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01959529 .).

Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People With Overweight or Obesity (SELECT) rationale and design.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Although it has been widely appreciated that obesity is a major risk factor for CVD, treatments that produce effective, durable weight loss and the impact of weight reduction in reducing cardiovascular risk have been elusive. Instead, progress in CVD risk reduction has been achieved through medications indicated for controlling lipids, hyperglycemia, blood pressure, heart failure, inflammation, and/or thrombosis. Obesity has been implicated as promoting all these issues, suggesting that sustained, effective weight loss may have independent cardiovascular benefit. GLP-1 receptor agonists (RAs) reduce weight, improve glycemia, decrease cardiovascular events in those with diabetes, and may have additional cardioprotective effects. The GLP-1 RA semaglutide is in phase 3 studies as a medication for obesity treatment at a dose of 2.4 mg subcutaneously (s.c.) once weekly. Semaglutide Effects on Heart Disease and Stroke in Patients with Overweight or Obesity (SELECT) is a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial testing if semaglutide 2.4 mg subcutaneously once weekly is superior to placebo when added to standard of care for preventing major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with established CVD and overweight or obesity but without diabetes. SELECT is the first cardiovascular outcomes trial to evaluate superiority in major adverse cardiovascular events reduction for an antiobesity medication in such a population. As such, SELECT has the potential for advancing new approaches to CVD risk reduction while targeting obesity.

The Association of Residential Instability and Hospitalizations among Homeless and Vulnerably Housed Individuals: Results from a Prospective Cohort Study.

The present study examined the association of residential instability with hospitalizations among homeless and vulnerably housed individuals over a 4-year time period. Survey data were linked to administrative records on hospitalizations. Specifically, we used data from the Health and Housing in Transition study, a prospective cohort study that tracked the health and housing status of homeless and vulnerably housed individuals in Canada. Responses from Vancouver-based participants (n = 378) from baseline and 3 follow-ups were linked to their administrative health records on hospitalizations (Discharge Abstract Database - Hospital Separation Files; 2008-2012). A generalized estimating equations model was used to examine associations between the number of residential moves and any hospitalizations during each year (none versus ≥ 1 hospitalizations). Analyses included demographic and health variables. Survey data were collected via structured interviews. Hospitalizations were derived from provincial administrative health records. A higher number of residential moves were associated with hospitalization over the study period (adjusted odds ratio: 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.28). Transgender, female gender, perceived social support, better self-reported mental health, and having ≥ 3 chronic health conditions also predicted having been hospitalized over the study period, whereas high school/higher education was negatively associated with hospitalizations. Our results indicate that residential instability is associated with increased risk of hospitalization, illustrating the importance of addressing housing as a social determinant of health.

Non-inferiority designs comparing placebo to a proven therapy for childhood pneumonia in low-resource settings.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: After a new treatment is recommended to be first-line treatment for a specific indication, outcome and population, it may be unethical to use placebo as a comparator in trials for that setting. Nevertheless, in specific circumstances, use of a placebo group might be warranted, for example, when it is believed that an active treatment may not be efficacious or cost-effective for a specific subpopulation. An example is antibiotic treatment for pneumonia, which may not be effective for many patients taking it due to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant strains or the high prevalence of viral and low prevalence of bacterial pneumonia. METHODS: We explore the applicability of different design options in cases where the benefit of an established treatment is questioned, with particular emphasis on issues that arise in a low-resource setting. Using the example of a clinical trial comparing the effectiveness of placebo versus amoxicillin in treating children 2-59 months of age with fast breathing pneumonia in Lilongwe, Malawi, we discuss the pros and cons of superiority versus non-inferiority designs, an intent-to-treat versus as-treated analysis and the use and interpretation of one- versus two-sided confidence intervals. RESULTS: We find that a non-inferiority design using an intent-to-treat analysis is the most appropriate design and analysis option. In addition, the presentation of one- versus two-sided confidence intervals can depend on the results but can maintain type I error. CONCLUSION: In the setting where the benefit of a previously established beneficial treatment is questioned, a non-inferiority design that includes placebo as the tested treatment option can be the most appropriate design option.

Associations of Birth Factors and Socio-Economic Status with Indicators of Early Emotional Development and Mental Health in Childhood: A Population-Based Linkage Study.

Using a linked population-based database established on healthcare, socio-economic, and survey datasets in British Columbia, Canada, we examined how biological, socio-demographic, and socio-economic status (SES) factors at birth related to children's emotional development and mental health. One analysis examined teacher-rated anxiety, hyperactivity, and aggression for kindergarten children (Mage = 5.7; n = 134,094). Another analysis examined administrative healthcare records comprising of physician-assigned diagnostic codes for mental health conditions (conduct disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety disorder and depression) from ages 5 through 15 (n = 89,404). Various factors at birth, including gestational age, birthweight, and maternal demographics, were related to emotional development and mental health in childhood. Across outcomes, low SES indicated detrimental associations with various aspects of children's emotional development and mental health (e.g., adjusted odds of mental health conditions were 25-39% higher for children of low income families versus others). Findings reinforce evidence that poverty (reduction) is a primary public health issue.

Cardiovascular safety and lower severe hypoglycaemia of insulin degludec versus insulin glargine U100 in patients with type 2 diabetes aged 65 years or older: Results from DEVOTE (DEVOTE 7).

AIMS: The aim of this study was to describe the risks of cardiovascular (CV) events and severe hypoglycaemia with insulin degludec (degludec) vs insulin glargine 100 units/mL (glargine U100) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) aged 65 years or older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 7637 patients in the DEVOTE trial, a treat-to-target, randomized, double-blind trial evaluating the CV safety of degludec vs glargine U100, were divided into three age groups (50-64 years, n = 3682; 65-74 years, n = 3136; ≥75 years, n = 819). Outcomes by overall age group and randomized treatment differences were analysed for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, severe hypoglycaemia and serious adverse events (SAEs). RESULTS: Patients with increasing age had higher risks of CV death, all-cause mortality and SAEs, and there were non-significant trends towards higher risks of MACE and severe hypoglycaemia. Treatment effects on the risk of MACE, all-cause mortality, severe hypoglycaemia and SAEs were consistent across age groups, based on the non-significant interactions between treatment and age with regard to these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: There were higher risks of CV death, all-cause mortality and SAEs, and trends towards higher risks of MACE and severe hypoglycaemia with increasing age after adjusting for baseline differences. The effects across age groups of degludec vs glargine U100 on MACE, all-cause mortality and severe hypoglycaemia were comparable, suggesting that the risk of MACE, as well as all-cause mortality, is similar and the risk of severe hypoglycaemia is lower with degludec regardless of age. Evidence is conclusive only until 74 years of age.

Lower rates of cardiovascular events and mortality associated with liraglutide use in patients treated with basal insulin: A DEVOTE subanalysis (DEVOTE 10).

AIM: To compare the associations between concomitant liraglutide use versus no liraglutide use and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality among patients receiving basal insulin (either insulin degludec [degludec] or insulin glargine 100 units/mL [glargine U100]) in the Trial Comparing Cardiovascular Safety of Insulin Degludec versus Insulin Glargine in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events (DEVOTE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk were randomized 1:1 to degludec or glargine U100. Hazard ratios for MACE/mortality were calculated using a Cox regression model adjusted for treatment and time-varying liraglutide use at any time during the trial, without interaction. Sensitivity analyses were adjusted for baseline covariates including, but not limited to, age, sex, smoking and prior cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: At baseline, 436/7637 (5.7%) patients were treated with liraglutide; after baseline, 187/7637 (2.4%) started and 210/7637 (2.7%) stopped liraglutide. Mean liraglutide exposure from randomization was 530.2 days. Liraglutide use versus no liraglutide use was associated with significantly lower hazard rates for MACE [0.62 (0.41; 0.92)95%CI ] and all-cause mortality [0.50 (0.29; 0.88)95%CI ]. There was no significant difference in the rate of severe hypoglycaemia with versus without liraglutide use. Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Use of liraglutide was associated with significantly lower risk of MACE and death in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk using basal insulin.

An apple a day: Protective associations between nutrition and the mental health of immigrants in Canada.

PURPOSE: Mental illness represents a major public health burden among Canada's large immigrant population. A burgeoning cross-sectional, longitudinal, and experimental evidence base implicates nutrition in mental health. Healthier diets (e.g., those rich in certain micro-nutrients) may benefit cognitive, social, and emotional functioning through attenuated inflammation and other bio-psychological pathways. The present study examined associations between nutrition and three markers of mental health among immigrants to Canada. METHODS: Employing cross-sectional data from immigrant respondents (n = 37,071) to a nationally representative population-based survey (the Canadian Community Health Survey: CCHS 2011-2014), we modelled associations of daily fruit and vegetable consumption with three mental health outcomes: anxiety and/or mood disorder diagnosis, being distressed (assessed via the 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale), and having good self-rated overall mental health. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed, adjusting for various socio-demographic and lifestyle-related variables. RESULTS: Higher consumption of fruit and vegetables demonstrated significant, protective associations with odds of having a mood and/or anxiety disorder, being distressed, and self-rated good mental health. Such patterns of association were similar regardless of ethno-cultural minority status and recency of immigration. Moreover, the protective associations of nutrition and mental health were independent of socio-demographic, health, and lifestyle factors. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggested evidence of protective associations between healthy nutritional intake and mental illness among a large-scale sample of immigrants in Canada. Importantly, the protective associations of healthier diets with immigrants' mental health were independent of various markers of healthy lifestyles (e.g., general health status, physical activity, alcohol use). Healthy dietary intake may, therefore, be worth consideration in efforts to prevent mental illness among immigrants.

DEVOTE 3: temporal relationships between severe hypoglycaemia, cardiovascular outcomes and mortality.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The double-blind Trial Comparing Cardiovascular Safety of Insulin Degludec vs Insulin Glargine in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events (DEVOTE) assessed the cardiovascular safety of insulin degludec. The incidence and rates of adjudicated severe hypoglycaemia, and all-cause mortality were also determined. This paper reports a secondary analysis investigating associations of severe hypoglycaemia with cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. METHODS: In DEVOTE, patients with type 2 diabetes were randomised to receive either insulin degludec or insulin glargine U100 (100 units/ml) once daily (between dinner and bedtime) in an event-driven, double-blind, treat-to-target cardiovascular outcomes trial. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of an adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke). Adjudicated severe hypoglycaemia was the pre-specified secondary outcome. In the present analysis, the associations of severe hypoglycaemia with both MACE and all-cause mortality was evaluated in the pooled trial population using time-to-event analyses, with severe hypoglycaemia as a time-dependent variable and randomised treatment as a fixed factor. An investigation with interaction terms indicated that the effect of severe hypoglycaemia on the risk of MACE and all-cause mortality were the same for both treatment arms, and so the temporal association for severe hypoglycaemia with subsequent MACE and all-cause mortality is reported for the pooled population. RESULTS: There was a non-significant difference in the risk of MACE for individuals who had vs those who had not experienced severe hypoglycaemia during the trial (HR 1.38, 95% CI 0.96, 1.96; p = 0.080) and therefore there was no temporal relationship between severe hypoglycaemia and MACE. There was a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality for patients who had vs those who had not experienced severe hypoglycaemia during the trial (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.79, 3.50; p < 0.001). There was a higher risk of all-cause mortality 15, 30, 60, 90, 180 and 365 days after experiencing severe hypoglycaemia compared with not experiencing severe hypoglycaemia in the same time interval. The association between severe hypoglycaemia and all-cause mortality was maintained after adjustment for the following baseline characteristics: age, sex, HbA1c, BMI, diabetes duration, insulin regimen, hepatic impairment, renal status and cardiovascular risk group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The results from these analyses demonstrate an association between severe hypoglycaemia and all-cause mortality. Furthermore, they indicate that patients who experienced severe hypoglycaemia were particularly at greater risk of death in the short term after the hypoglycaemic episode. These findings indicate that severe hypoglycaemia is associated with higher subsequent mortality; however, they cannot answer the question as to whether severe hypoglycaemia serves as a risk marker for adverse outcomes or whether there is a direct causal effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01959529.