Prognostic models for stable coronary artery disease based on electronic health record cohort of 102 023 patients.

AIMS: The population with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) is growing but validated models to guide their clinical management are lacking. We developed and validated prognostic models for all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) or coronary death in SCAD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Models were developed in a linked electronic health records cohort of 102 023 SCAD patients from the CALIBER programme, with mean follow-up of 4.4 (SD 2.8) years during which 20 817 deaths and 8856 coronary outcomes were observed. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year risk was 20.6% (95% CI, 20.3, 20.9) for mortality and 9.7% (95% CI, 9.4, 9.9) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. The predictors in the models were age, sex, CAD diagnosis, deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, lipids, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation, stroke, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, cancer, depression, anxiety, heart rate, creatinine, white cell count, and haemoglobin. The models had good calibration and discrimination in internal (external) validation with C-index 0.811 (0.735) for all-cause mortality and 0.778 (0.718) for non-fatal MI or coronary death. Using these models to identify patients at high risk (defined by guidelines as 3% annual mortality) and support a management decision associated with hazard ratio 0.8 could save an additional 13-16 life years or 15-18 coronary event-free years per 1000 patients screened, compared with models with just age, sex, and deprivation. CONCLUSION: These validated prognostic models could be used in clinical practice to support risk stratification as recommended in clinical guidelines.

Performing stable angina pectoris: an ethnographic study.

Symptoms play a crucial part in the formulation of medical diagnoses, yet the construction and interpretation of symptom narratives is not well understood. The diagnosis of angina is largely based on symptoms, but a substantial minority of patients diagnosed with "non-cardiac" chest pain go on to have a heart attack. In this ethnographic study our aims were to understand: (1) how the patients' accounts are performed or enacted in consultations with doctors; (2) the ways in which ambiguity in the symptom narrative is managed by doctors; and (3) how doctors reach or do not reach a diagnostic decision. We observed 59 consultations of patients in a UK teaching hospital with new onset chest pain who had been referred for a specialist opinion in ambulatory care. We found that patients rarely gave a history that, without further interrogation, satisfied the doctors, who actively restructured the complex narrative until it fitted a diagnostic canon, detaching it from the patient's interpretation and explanation. A minority of doctors asked about chest pain symptoms outside the canon. Re-structuring into the canonical classification was sometimes resisted by patients who contested key concepts, like exertion. Symptom narratives were sometimes unstable, with central features changing on interrogation and re-telling. When translation was required for South Asian patients, doctors considered the history less relevant to the diagnosis. Diagnosis and effective treatment could be enhanced by research on the diagnostic and prognostic value of the terms patients use to describe their symptoms.

Domestic violence and mental health: a cross-sectional survey of women seeking help from domestic violence support services.

BACKGROUND: Domestic violence and abuse (DVA) are associated with increased risk of mental illness, but we know little about the mental health of female DVA survivors seeking support from domestic violence services. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to characterise the demography and mental health of women who access specialist DVA services in the United Kingdom and to investigate associations between severity of abuse and measures of mental health and health state utility, accounting for important confounders and moderators. DESIGN: Baseline data on 260 women enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of a psychological intervention for DVA survivors were analysed. We report the prevalence of and associations between mental health status and severity of abuse at the time of recruitment. We used logistic and normal regression models for binary and continuous outcomes, respectively. The following mental health measures were used: Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation - Outcome Measure (CORE-OM), Patient Health Questionnaire, Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment, and the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale to measure posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The Composite Abuse Scale (CAS) measured abuse. RESULTS: Exposure to DVA was high, with a mean CAS score of 56 (SD 34). The mean CORE-OM score was 18 (SD 8) with 76% above the clinical threshold (95% confidence interval: 70-81%). Depression and anxiety levels were high, with means close to clinical thresholds, and more than three-quarters of respondents recorded PTSD scores above the clinical threshold. Symptoms of mental illness increased stepwise with increasing severity of DVA. CONCLUSIONS: Women DVA survivors who seek support from DVA services have recently experienced high levels of abuse, depression, anxiety, and especially PTSD. Clinicians need to be aware that patients presenting with mental health conditions or symptoms of depression or anxiety may be experiencing or have experienced DVA. The high psychological morbidity in this population means that trauma-informed psychological support is needed for survivors who seek support from DVA services.