Predicting regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women under 25 years.

BACKGROUND: A number of retrospective and prospective studies have documented substantial rates of regression in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 lesions in young women. Initial observational management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 is increasingly accepted as appropriate for women under 25 years of age with screen-detected abnormalities and is included in a number of clinical guidelines. However, there has been a paucity of large prospective studies on observational management with strict inclusion criteria. A number of important questions remain, specifically regarding the clinical variables that are associated with the risk of progression or persistence of disease. To investigate these factors and to ensure that young women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 undergoing observational management were being managed in a well-monitored and an appropriately informed fashion, we conducted a large, multicenter prospective study on observational management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women under 25 years. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the regression rates and clinical, cytologic, and pathologic predictors of regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women under 25 years undergoing observational management over 24 months. STUDY DESIGN: This study was a multicenter prospective study on observational management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (ie, repeat colposcopy, cytology, and cervical biopsy every 6 months) for up to 24 months. A total of 615 consenting women under 25 years with newly-diagnosed, biopsy-proven cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 were recruited (from 2010 to 2016) through 16 hospital-based colposcopy units in New Zealand and Australia. RESULTS: At completion, 326 women had confirmed regression, 156 had persistent high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ, and 24 had unconfirmed regression (ie, first regression at the 24-month follow-up). A total of 109 women did not complete the protocol (41 because of delayed follow-up, 41 lost to follow-up, 22 elected treatment, 4 refused a biopsy, and 1 died of an unrelated cause). Confirmed regression was observed in 53% (326 of 615) of all women enrolled in the study and, when missing data were imputed, it was estimated that 64% of women (95% confidence interval, 60%-68%) would have experienced regression. Similarly, lesions regressed in 64% (326 of 506) of women who completed the observational protocol. Based on a multivariable analysis, detection of human papillomavirus 16 in a liquid-based cytology sample at the time of initial colposcopy decreased the chance of regression by 31% (risk ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.86; P<.001). In addition, at initial colposcopy, low-grade or normal colposcopic impression, later year of diagnosis, low-grade or normal cytology, and being a nonsmoker were all independently associated with an increased chance of regression. CONCLUSION: More than half of women under 25 years with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 will regress to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or normal within 24 months without destructive treatment. The absence of human papillomavirus 16 is the most important predictor of regression.

The combined impact of implementing HPV immunisation and primary HPV screening in New Zealand: Transitional and long-term benefits, costs and resource utilisation implications.

BACKGROUND: In response to emergent evidence, many countries are transitioning from cytology-based to HPV screening. We evaluated the impact of an upcoming transition on health outcomes and resource utilisation in New Zealand. METHODS: An extensively validated model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening ('Policy1-Cervix') was utilised to simulate a transition from three-yearly cytology for women 20-69 years to five-yearly HPV screening with 16/18 genotyping for women 25-69 years, accounting for population growth and the impact of HPV immunisation. Cervical cancer rates, resources use (test volumes), costs, and test positivity rates from 2015 to 2035 were estimated. FINDINGS: By 2035, the transition to HPV screening will result in declines in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates by 32% and 25%, respectively, compared to 2018. A potentially detectable 5% increase in cervical cancer incidence due to earlier detection is predicted for the year of transition. Annual numbers of women screened will fluctuate with the five-year screening interval. Cytology volumes will reduce by over 80% but colposcopy volumes will be similar to pre-transition rates, and program costs will be reduced by 16%. A 9% HPV test positivity rate is expected in the first round of HPV screening (2019-2023), with 2.7% of women referred for colposcopy. Transitioning from cytology to primary HPV cervical screening could avert 149 cancer cases and 45 deaths by 2035. CONCLUSION: Primary HPV screening and vaccination will reduce cervical cancer and resources use. A small transient apparent increase of invasive cancer rates due to earlier detection may be detectable at the population level, reflecting the introduction of a more sensitive screening test. These findings can be used to inform health services planning and public communications surrounding program implementation.