Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

A Review of Pediatric Ophthalmic Tumors.

Tumors of the eye, orbit, and ocular adnexa can arise in the pediatric population. These entities can be both vision- and life-threatening and may be associated with systemic disease. Given their relative rarity, pediatricians must be aware of these conditions and understand what findings warrant immediate referral to an ophthalmologist for initiation of further testing. We aimed to review these conditions and highlight clinical features to promote awareness and expedite diagnosis. Tumors are subdivided into the following categories for review: anterior tumors of the eyelid and ocular surface, orbital tumors, and intraocular tumors.

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. METHODS: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions. FINDINGS: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-Effectiveness of Addressing Retinopathy of Prematurity in Rwanda.

PURPOSE: With the expansion of neonatal care in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an increasing number of premature babies are at risk to develop retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Previous studies have quantified the cost-effectiveness of addressing ROP in middle-income countries, but few have focused on SSA. This study estimates the cost of a national program for ROP screening and anti-VEGF injection treatment in Rwanda compared to the status quo. METHODS: Medical cost data were collected from King Faisal Hospital in Rwanda (July 2022). Societal burden of vision loss included lost productivity and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Published data on epidemiology and natural history of ROP were used to estimate burden and sequelae of ROP in Rwanda. Cost of a national program for screening and treating a one-year birth cohort was compared to the status quo using a decision analysis model. RESULTS: Cost of ROP screening and treatment was $738 per infant. The estimated equipment cost necessary for the startup of a national program was $58,667. We projected that a national program could avert 257 cases of blindness in the cohort and increase QALYs compared to the status quo. Screening and treatment for ROP would save an estimated $270,000 for the birth cohort from reductions in lost productivity. CONCLUSION: The cost of screening and anti-VEGF treatment for ROP is substantially less than the indirect cost of vision loss due to ROP. Allocating additional funding towards expansion of ROP screening and treatment is cost-saving from a societal perspective compared to current practice.

Patient education in pediatric ophthalmology: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Patient and caregiver education may have the potential to improve understanding, adherence, and disease outcomes in pediatric ophthalmology. Research suggests that common clinical practices may result in suboptimal patient understanding. We summarize the current literature on patient education interventions in pediatric ophthalmology. METHODS: A predefined search strategy was used to systematically review the PubMed database. Peer-reviewed published studies that utilized a specific educational intervention regarding any condition in pediatric ophthalmology and measured its impact were included. RESULTS: Our search method yielded 453 studies; 30 passed title and abstract screening, and 14 were included in the final analysis. Of the 14 studies, 9 were randomized controlled trials. Eight studies relied solely on printed information, 2 were computer-based, 1 was an animated video, and 3 were multifactorial. Outcome measures included adherence (6/14), caregiver knowledge (6/14), psychological impact (4/14), visual outcome (2/14), and clinic attendance (1/14). CONCLUSIONS: The educational interventions varied widely in methodology, content, and focus of intervention; nonetheless, they were widely successful across outcome measures. A number of studies featured highly time- and cost-effective interventions that resulted in increased knowledge, decreased anxiety, enhanced adherence, and improved visual outcomes. Educational efforts may be especially beneficial among non-native language speakers, particularly via image-based means of communication.

Efficacy of Preoperative Risk Stratification on Resident Phacoemulsification Surgeries.

Purpose: To evaluate efficacy of a novel risk stratification system in minimizing resident surgical complications and to evaluate whether the system could be used to safely introduce cataract surgery to earlier levels of training. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional study on 530 non-consecutive cataract cases performed by residents at Columbia University. Risk scores, preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), intraoperative complications, postoperative day 1 (POD1), and month 1 (POM1) exam findings were tabulated. The relationship between risk scores and POD1 and POM1 BCVA was modeled using linear regression. The relationship between risk scores and complication rates was modeled using logistic regression. Logistic regression was used to model the rates of complications across different levels of training. Rates of complications were compared between diabetic versus non-diabetic patients using t-tests. Results: Risk scores did not have significant association with intraoperative complications. Risk scores were predictive of corneal edema (OR = 1.36, p = 0.0032) and having any POM1 complication (OR = 1.20, p = 0.034). Risk scores were predictive of POD1 (ß = 0.13, p < 0.0001) and POM1 (ß = 0.057, p = 0.00048) visual acuity. There was no significant association between level of training and rates of intraoperative (p = 0.9) or postoperative complications (p = 0.06). Rates of intraoperative complication trended higher among diabetic patients but was not statistically significant (p = 0.2). Conclusion: Higher risk scores were predictive of prolonged corneal edema but not risk of intraoperative complications. Our risk stratification system allowed us to safely introduce earlier phacoemulsification surgery.

The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia has not been comprehensively assessed over the last two decades. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost (DALY) rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years. METHODS: The GBD 2016 used a wide range of data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), surveys, reports of the Federal Ministry of Health and the United Nations (UN) and published scientific articles. The modified United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS. RESULTS: In 2016, an estimated 36,990 new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8775-80262), 670,906 prevalent HIV cases (95% UI: 568,268-798,970) and 19,999 HIV deaths (95% UI: 16426-24412) occurred in Ethiopia. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate peaked in 1995 and declined by 6.3% annually for both sexes with a total reduction of 77% between 1990 and 2016. The annualized HIV/AIDS mortality rate reduction during 1990 to 2016 for both sexes was 0.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target. However, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the HIV/AIDS detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Early Initiation of Breastfeeding Among Maya Mothers in the Western Highlands of Guatemala: Practices and Beliefs.

BACKGROUND: Guatemala exhibits the sixth highest rate of child stunting worldwide, and stunting disproportionately affects Guatemala indigenous communities. In a country struggling to combat this result of malnutrition, early child nutrition is especially critical. Specifically, early initiation of breastfeeding is important for the development of newborn infants. Understanding beliefs and practices related to early initiation of breastfeeding in Maya Guatemala may provide an avenue to guide nutrition interventions in indigenous communities. Research aim: This study aimed to determine major beliefs and practices associated with early initiation of breastfeeding among Maya mothers in Lake Atitlán, Guatemala. METHODS: As part of a larger study to assess child nutrition in the Lake Atitlán region, we created a series of semistructured interview questions to document breastfeeding practices and beliefs among mothers. We conducted and audio-recorded in-person interviews that were translated from Kaqchikel, the local language, to Spanish by a community assistant. RESULTS: We conducted 178 interviews with mothers; 76% practiced early initiation. Early initiation was associated with the village and complementary feeding practices. Mothers held a variety of beliefs about the value of colostrum, and these beliefs were associated with the village. Mothers who held negative beliefs toward colostrum were more likely to delay breastfeeding initiation. CONCLUSION: Although most Maya mothers practice early initiation, the intervillage disparity in breastfeeding practices demonstrates a need to geographically focus breastfeeding interventions. Our novel insights into the breastfeeding beliefs among Maya mothers will serve as a guide to structure culturally competent breastfeeding education interventions in indigenous communities.