Prevalence of Liver Steatosis and Fibrosis in the General Population and Various High-Risk Populations: A Nationwide Study With 5.7 Million Adults in China.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of liver steatosis and fibrosis in the general population and populations with potential risk factors in China, so as to inform policies for the screening and management of fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis in general and high-risk populations. METHODS: This cross-sectional, population-based, nationwide study was based on the database of the largest health check-up chain in China. Adults from 30 provinces who underwent a check-up between 2017 and 2022 were included. Steatosis and fibrosis were assessed and graded by transient elastography. Overall and stratified prevalence was estimated among the general population and various subpopulations with demographic, cardiovascular, and chronic liver disease risk factors. A mixed effect regression model was used to examine predictors independently associated with steatosis and fibrosis. RESULTS: In 5,757,335 participants, the prevalence of steatosis, severe steatosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis was 44.39%, 10.57%, 2.85%, and 0.87%, respectively. Participants who were male, with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome, or elevated alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase had a significantly higher prevalence of all grades of steatosis and fibrosis, and those with fatty liver, decreased albumin or platelet count, and hepatitis B virus infection also had a significantly higher prevalence of fibrosis than their healthy counterparts. Most cardiovascular and chronic liver disease risk factors were independent predictors for steatosis and fibrosis, except for dyslipidemia for fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial burden of liver steatosis and fibrosis was found in China. Our study provides evidence for shaping future pathways for screening and risk stratification of liver steatosis and fibrosis in the general population. The findings of this study highlight that fatty liver and liver fibrosis should be included in disease management programs as targets for screening and regular monitoring in high-risk populations, especially in those with diabetes.

Prevalence and incidence of hepatitis E infection in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: China is an endemic area for HEV infection. Estimating the prevalence and incidence of HEV infection in China plays a pivotal role in informing public health policies to prevent and control hepatitis E. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of anti-HEV IgG and incidence of HEV seroconversion in China. METHODS: This study was based on the Meinian health check-up database in China. Participants who underwent testing for anti-HEV IgG at check-up centers in 24 provinces between 2017 and 2022 were included. In the cross-sectional analyses, overall prevalence and stratified prevalence in subpopulations with various characteristics were estimated and standardized according to the 2020 census of the Chinese population. In the longitudinal analyses, the occurrence of anti-HEV IgG positivity during the follow-up was defined as an incident HEV seroconversion. Overall and stratified incidence rates were estimated and expressed as per 100 person-years. Poisson regression was used to explore risk factors associated with HEV seroconversion. RESULTS: 85,238 and 11,154 participants were included in the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, respectively. The prevalence of anti-HEV IgG in the general population was 18.02%. During a median follow-up of 1.2 years, the incidence rate of HEV seroconversion was 1.79 per 100 person-years. Age ≥ 60 years, low socioeconomic status, living in coastal areas, living in areas with high drainage density, and living in areas with high anti-HEV IgG prevalence were independent risk factors for HEV seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings would help inform policy making for hepatitis E prevention and control in China, as well as in other endemic regions of the world.

Association of dietary inflammatory index and leukocyte telomere length with mild cognitive impairment in Chinese older adults.

BACKGROUND: There are minimal data on the relationship between DII and MCI in an elderly Chinese population and no research has assessed the potential effect of LTL. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between DII and MCI while taking into account the potential effect of LTL. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 3,386 participants aged ≥ 60 years of age from the Tianjin Elderly Nutrition and Cognition Cohort study. DII score was constructed based on a validated self-administered food frequency questionnaire was calculated based on the method developed by Shivappa et al. LTL was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the association between DII, LTL and MCI. Moreover, mediation analysis was employed to test the mediation effect of LTL on the total effect of DII on MCI. RESULTS: Compared with the participants in the lowest tertiles of LTL and DII score, the odds ratios (ORs) of MCI in the highest tertiles were 0.386(95% CI: 0.281-0.529) and 1.650 (95% CI: 1.232-2.209), respectively. The significant association between DII score and MCI persisted after further adjusting for LTL (OR: 1.595; 95% CI: 1.189-2.140). The link between DII score and MCI was mediated partially by LTL (ßindirect effect= -0.008, P<0.05). CONCLUSION: High DII score was positively associated with MCI prevalence in an elderly Chinese population and the link between DII scores and MCI seemed to be mediated partially by LTL.

Telomere and mitochondria mediated the association between dietary inflammatory index and mild cognitive impairment: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diet and chronic inflammation might play a major role in the pathogenesis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). In addition, peripheral blood leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn) might mediate the relationship between inflammation and MCI risk. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate whether inflammatory potential of diet assessed by dietary inflammatory index (DII), chronic inflammation, peripheral blood LTL, and mtDNAcn were associated with the risk of MCI. RESULTS: A population-based cohort study was conducted with a total of 2944 participants. During a median follow-up of 2 years, 438 (14.90%) individuals were new-onset MCI. After adjustment, a higher score of DII (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.056, 95% CI: 1.005, 1.109), a higher log systemic immune inflammation index (SII) (HR: 1.333, 95% CI: 1.089, 1.633) and log system inflammation response index (SIRI) (HR: 1.487, 95% CI: 1.024, 2.161) predicted elevated risk of MCI. An increased mtDNAcn (HR: 0.843, 95% CI: 0.712, 0.997), but not LTL, predicted a decreased risk of MCI. Negative associations of log SII with LTL (ß:-0.359, 95% CI: -0.445, -0.273) and mtDNAcn (ß:-0.048, 95% CI: -0.090, -0.006) were found. Additionally, negative associations of log SIRI with LTL (ß: -0.035, 95% CI: -0.052, -0.017) and mtDNAcn (ß:-0.136, 95% CI: -0.216, -0.056) were also found. Path analysis suggested that SIRI, LTL, and mtDNAcn, in series, have mediation roles in the association between DII score and MCI risk. CONCLUSIONS: Higher DII, SII, and SIRI might predict a greater risk of MCI, while a longer LTL and an increased mtDNAcn were linked to a reduced risk of MCI among the older population. LTL and mtDNAcn could play mediation roles in the association between DII and MCI risk.

Apolipoprotein E polymorphism ε4-stratified longitudinal association between daytime naps, sleep apnea and mild cognitive impairment: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Sleep characteristics, including taking a nap and sleep apnea, have been proven to have effects on cognitive function, and apolipoprotein E polymorphism ε4 (APOEε4) has been confirmed to be a risk factor for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but epidemiological studies linking sleep characteristics and APOEε4 are scarce. We aimed to explore the longitudinal association between sleep characteristics and MCI in an overall cohort, in APOEε4 carriers and in APOEε4 non-carriers. METHODS: We included 3053 older adults from the Tianjin Elderly Nutrition and Cognition Cohort (TENCC) study, recruited from March 2018 to June 2019, and followed up from March 2021 to June 2021. All participants underwent detailed neuropsychological evaluation that allowed psychometric MCI classification. Information on self-reported sleep characteristics was gathered via face-to-face interviews. Crude and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: In the multivariable-adjusted models, taking a nap at noon was associated with decreased risk of MCI in all participants (yes vs. no: HR 0.723, 95% CI 0.592, 0.883) and in APOEε4 non-carriers (yes vs. no: HR 0.719, 95% CI 0.576, 0.897). Sleep apnea was associated with increased risk of MCI in all participants (vs. good: HR 2.213, 95% CI 1.171, 4.180) and in APOEε4 non-carriers (vs. good: HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.085, 4.529). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that taking a nap at noon might be a potential protective factor against development of MCI in APOEε4 non-carriers, and sleep apnea might be associated with increased incidence of MCI in APOEε4 non-carriers.

Circulating folate concentrations and the risk of mild cognitive impairment: A prospective study on the older Chinese population without folic acid fortification.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal association between serum folate concentrations and the risk of cognitive impairment remains unclear in populations with low folate levels. We examined the association between serum folate concentrations and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in older adults in China, where mandatory fortification of foods with folic acid has not been implemented. We further explored if homocysteine (Hcy) and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) mediate the association between serum folate and MCI. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of 3974 participants aged ≥60 years from the Tianjin Elderly Nutrition and Cognition (TENC) cohort study. The associations between serum folate level and the risk of cognitive impairment overall and stratified by apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotypes were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The mediating effects of Hcy and LTL on the folate-MCI association were explored via a path analysis approach. RESULTS: Within a 3-year follow-up, we documented 560 incident MCI cases. After multivariable adjustment, higher serum folate concentrations were associated with lower incidence of MCI, with hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) across quartiles of folate (from lowest to highest concentrations) of 1.00 (reference), 0.66 (0.52, 0.83), 0.57 (0.45, 0.73), 0.66 (0.52, 0.84), respectively (p for trend <0.001). In mediation analyses, the status of serum folate deficiency and MCI were correlated via two intermediary pathways, Hcy and Hcy-telomere (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Lower folate concentrations, independently of APOE genotype, were associated with increased risk of MCI among elderly Chinese people, a population with relatively low folate intake. Our data were compatible with the mediation hypothesis that the association between folate status and MCI was mediated by Hcy and LTL.

Association between methionine cycle metabolite-related diets and mild cognitive impairment in older Chinese adults: a population-based observational study.

BACKGROUND: Homocysteine (Hcy) and folate, involved in a common metabolic pathway supplying essential methyl groups for DNA and protein synthesis, have been found to be associated with cognitive function. Moreover, diet may influence methionine cycle metabolites (MCM) as well as mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but MCM-related dietary patterns are unclear in an older population. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to identify MCM-related dietary patterns of older Chinese adults, and examine their association with the prevalence of MCI in a large population-based study. METHODS: This study included 4457 participants ≥ 60 years of age from the Tianjin Elderly Nutrition and Cognition Cohort study. Dietary data were collected using a valid self-administered food frequency questionnaire, and factor analysis was used to identify major dietary patterns in the population. MCM-based dietary patterns were derived using reduced rank regression (RRR) based on serum folate and Hcy as response variables. RESULTS: Compared with the participants in the lowest quartile of vegetarian pattern and processed foods pattern, the odds ratios (ORs) of MCI in the highest quartile were 0.72 (95% CI 0.53-0.98) and 1.39 (95% CI 1.03-1.88), respectively. In the MCM-based dietary patterns derived using RRR, the ORs for MCI for the highest quartile of MCM patterns I and II were 0.58 (95% CI 0.44-0.78) and 1.38 (95% CI 1.04-1.83), respectively, compared with participants in the lower quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this large population-based study suggested that adopting an MCM-related dietary pattern, especially avoiding processed foods, can decrease the occurrence of MCI.

Association between edible mushroom intake and the prevalence of newly diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: results from the Tianjin Chronic Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and Health Cohort Study in China.

Animal studies have suggested that mushroom intake can alleviate non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) due to its anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties. However, the association between mushroom intake and NAFLD is unknown in humans. We aimed to investigate the association of mushroom intake with NAFLD among Chinese adults. This is a cross-sectional study of 24 236 adults (mean (standard deviation) age: 40·7 (sd 11·9) years; 11 394 men (47·0 %)). Mushroom intake was assessed via a validated FFQ. Newly diagnosed NAFLD was identified based on the results of annual health examinations, including ultrasound findings and a self-reported history of the disease. Multiple logistic models were used to examine the association between mushroom intake and NAFLD. The prevalence of newly diagnosed NAFLD was 19·0 %. Compared with those consuming mushrooms less frequently (≤1 time/week), the fully adjusted OR of newly diagnosed NAFLD were 0·95 (95 % CI 0·86, 1·05) for those consuming 2-3 times/week and 0·76 (95 % CI 0·63, 0·92) for those consuming ≥4 times/week (Pfor trend = 0·01). The inverse association was consistent in subgroups defined by age, sex and BMI. In conclusion, higher mushroom intake was significantly associated with lower prevalence of NAFLD among Chinese adults. Future research is required to understand the causal association between mushroom intake and NAFLD.

Vitamin D is related to handgrip strength in adult men aged 50 years and over: A population study from the TCLSIH cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Handgrip strength (HGS) begins an accelerating decline around 50 years. Many of the studies performed in old adults have demonstrated a significant relationship between vitamin D and HGS, but the studies performed in participants with a broad age range have yielded conflicting results. The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship between vitamin D and HGS using age 50 as a specific cut-off. DESIGN: Population-based, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Totally 5102 participants (2911 males, 2191 females) from the TCLSIH Cohort. MEASUREMENTS: Serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured using an enzyme immunoassay. We divided participants into quartiles according to 25(OH)D, and the ranges for increasing quartiles were as follows: (males [≥50 years]: 10.94-31.85, 31.88-43.01, 43.20-56.06, 56.20-143.0; males [<50 years]: 11.11-34.68, 34.71-46.91, 46.96-59.45, 59.50-143.7; females [≥50 years]: 7.21-30.01, 30.02-40.18, 40.21-52.44, 52.49-275.4; females [<50 years]: 5.29-28.91, 28.92-40.19, 40.20-51.90, 51.91-140.2). HGS was measured with a hydraulic hand-held dynamometer. Analysis of covariance was employed to explore the relationship. RESULTS: Among males aged above 50 years, the means (95% confidence interval) for HGS per body weight across the categories of serum 25(OH)D concentration were 0.523 (0.430-0.638), 0.545 (0.447-0.664), 0.543 (0.446-0.661), 0.546 (0.449-0.664) (Ptrend  < 0.01) after adjustment for potential confounding factors. However, no relationships were observed between serum 25(OH)D concentration and HGS in males aged below 50 years and females in the whole age range. CONCLUSIONS: Serum 25(OH)D concentration was significantly related to HGS in males aged above 50 years, independent of confounding factors. Future studies are needed to clarify the age and sex relationship between serum 25(OH)D concentration and HGS.

Association between nut consumption and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adults.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Increased nut consumption has been associated with reduced inflammation, insulin resistance, and oxidative stress. Although these factors are closely involved in the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), few studies have focused on the association between nut consumption and NAFLD in the general population. We aimed to investigate the association of nut consumption and NAFLD in an adult population. METHODS: A total of 23 915 participants from Tianjin Chronic Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and Health (TCLSIH) Cohort Study were included in this study. Information on dietary intake was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Abdominal ultrasonography was done to diagnose NAFLD. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association of nut consumption with NAFLD. RESULTS: After adjusting for sociodemographic, medical, dietary, and lifestyle variables, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for NAFLD across categories of nut consumption were 1.00 (reference) for <1 time/week, 0.91 (0.82, 1.02) for 1 time/week, 0.88 (0.76, 1.02) for 2-3 times/week, and 0.80 (0.69, 0.92) for ≥4 times/week (P for trend < 0.01). These associations were attenuated but remained significant after further adjustment for blood lipids, glucose, and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher nut consumption was significantly associated with lower prevalence of NAFLD. Further prospective studies and randomized trials are required to ascertain the causal association between nut consumption and NAFLD.

Association of dietary patterns with depressive symptoms in Chinese postmenopausal women.

Many components in diet have regulated oxidative stress, inflammatory reaction and even balance oestrogen levels. Because these factors are closely associated with depressive symptoms in postmenopausal women, it is considered that dietary factors are able to prevent and control depressive symptoms. On the other hand, a dietary pattern that considers the correlations and synergies between foods and nutrients is expected to have a greater impact on disease risk. The aim of the present study is to evaluate whether dietary patterns are associated with depressive symptoms in Chinese postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study of 2051 postmenopausal women (mean age: 58·8 (sd 7·4) years) was conducted in Tianjin, China. Dietary consumption was assessed by a valid self-administered FFQ. Principal component analysis was used to derive three major dietary patterns: 'healthy', 'sweets' and 'traditional Tianjin' from eighty-eight food items. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale, and cut-off point of 48 indicating serious depressive symptoms. The association between quartile of dietary patterns and depressive symptoms was assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. The multivariable-adjusted OR of having depressive symptoms for increasing quartile of dietary patterns were as follows: healthy, 1·00, 0·79 (95 % CI 0·49, 1·28), 0·62 (95 % CI 0·37, 1·04) and 0·57 (95 % CI 0·33, 0·97); sweets, 1·00, 0·75 (95 % CI 0·42, 1·3), 1·08 (95 % CI 0·64, 1·81) and 1·66 (95 % CI 1·03, 2·71); and traditional Tianjin, 1·00, 1·02 (95 % CI 0·58, 1·79), 0·96 (95 % CI 0·54, 1·71) and 2·53 (95 % CI 1·58, 4·16), respectively. The present study demonstrated that a healthy dietary pattern was inversely associated with depressive symptoms. On the contrary, greater adherence to sweets and traditional Tianjin dietary patterns was associated with a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms.

Relationship between serum levels of immunoglobulins and metabolic syndrome in an adult population: A population study from the TCLSIH cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of metabolic disorders that increase the risk of developing cardiovascular disease, and inflammation is considered as a pathological basis for MetS. Immunoglobulins (Igs) are the major secretory products of the adaptive immune system. However, no large-scale population study has focused on a possible relationship between Igs and MetS. We designed a cross-sectional study to investigate the relationship between Igs and prevalence of MetS in a large-scale adult population. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 10,289 participants were recruited among residents in Tianjin, China. Metabolic syndrome was defined in accordance with the criteria of the American Heart Association scientific statements of 2009. Serum levels of Igs were determined by immunonephelometry. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between the quintiles of serum levels of Igs and the prevalence of MetS. The overall prevalence of MetS was 36.1%. The mean (standard deviation) values of Igs (IgG, IgE, IgM, and IgA) were 1205.7 (249.3) mg/dL, 93.1 (238.9) IU/mL, 105.7 (57.3) mg/dL, and 236.2 (97.6) mg/dL, respectively. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of MetS for the highest quintile of Igs (IgG, IgE, IgM, and IgA), when compared to the lowest quintile, were 0.81 (0.70, 0.95), 0.97 (0.83, 1.12), 1.13 (0.97, 1.33), and 1.52 (1.30, 1.77), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that decreased IgG and increased IgA are independently related to a higher prevalence of MetS. The results indicate that the Igs might be useful predictive factors for MetS in the general adult population.

Association between weight change, waist circumference change, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore and compare the effect of weight change, and waist circumference (WC) change, on the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with metabolically healthy overweight or obesity (MHOW/O) and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity (MUOW/O) in a health check-up cohort in China. METHODS: 5625 adults with overweight or obesity, and free from NAFLD at baseline were included. Metabolically healthy was defined as not having any components of metabolic syndrome. Weight/WC changes were calculated as the relative difference between the first and second visits of check-up. NAFLD was assessed based on abdominal ultrasound. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 2.1 (IQR: 1.1-4.3) years, 1849 participants developed NAFLD. In MHOW/O participants, the multivariable adjusted HRs (95 % CIs) for NAFLD in weight change ≤ -5.0 %, and - 4.9-- 1.0 % were 0.36 (0.23-0.59), 0.59 (0.43-0.80), respectively, compared to the weight stable group (-0.9% to 0.9 %). The corresponding HRs (95 % CIs) for the association between WC change (≤ 6.0 %, - 5.9 to -3.0 %) and NAFLD in MHOW/O participants were 0.41 (0.27-0.62), and 0.74 (0.54-1.01), respectively, compared to the WC stable group (-2.9-2.9 %). Similar patterns were observed in MUOW/O participants. A more marked gradient of cumulative incidence of NAFLD across weight/WC change categories was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals. CONCLUSIONS: A more evident association between weight/WC loss and risk of NAFLD was observed in MHOW/O than in MUOW/O individuals. Our findings indicate the practical significance of encouraging all individuals with overweight and obesity to achieve a clinically relevant level of weight/WC loss to prevent NAFLD, even among metabolic healthy groups.

Adherence to a Healthy Diet and Risk of Multiple Carotid Atherosclerosis Subtypes: Insights from the China MJ Health Check-Up Cohort.

AIM: Early-stage phenotypes of carotid atherosclerosis (CAS), such as increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), and advanced-stage phenotypes, such as carotid plaque (CP), are at risk for adverse ischemic stroke events. There is limited evidence regarding the causal association between dietary patterns and the risk of CAS in Chinese adults. We therefore examined multiple dietary patterns associated with the risk of CAS and identified the optimal dietary pattern for preventing CAS. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from the prospective MJ Health Check-up Study (2004-2020), including 13,989 participants 18-80 years of age without CAS. The dietary intake was measured using validated food frequency questionnaires, and dietary pattern scores were calculated for four a priori and four a posteriori dietary patterns. The Cox model was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating various dietary pattern scores to the risk of CAS. RESULTS: During 43,903.4 person-years of follow-up, 3732 incidents of increased cIMT and 2861 incident CP events were documented. Overall, the seven dietary patterns, except for the high-protein diet, exhibited significant associations with the risk of increased cIMT and CP. Comparing the highest and lowest quartiles, the a posteriori high-fiber dietary pattern (HFIDP) score demonstrated the strongest inverse associations with the risk of increased cIMT (HR 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.71]) and CP (HR 0.65 [95% CI 0.59-0.73]); conversely, another a posteriori high-fat dietary pattern (HFADP; i.e., incorporating high-fat and processed foods) demonstrated the strongest positive associations with the risk of increased cIMT (HR 1.96 [95% CI 1.75-2.20]) and CP (HR 1.83 [95% CI 1.61-2.08]) (all p for trend < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple dietary patterns are significantly associated with the risk of early- and advanced-stage phenotypes of CAS. Notably, a high adherence to an HFIDP and low adherence to an HFADP may confer the greatest risk reduction for CAS.

National and Provincial-Level Prevalence and Risk Factors of Carotid Atherosclerosis in Chinese Adults.

Importance: Epidemiologic studies on carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) based on nationwide ultrasonography measurements can contribute to understanding the future risk of cardiovascular diseases and identifying high-risk populations, thereby proposing more targeted prevention and treatment measures. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of CAS within the general population of China and to investigate its distribution among populations with potential risk factors and variation across diverse geographic regions. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, population-based cross-sectional study used China's largest health check-up chain database to study 10 733 975 individuals aged 20 years or older from all 31 provinces in China who underwent check-ups from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed and graded using ultrasonography as increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque (CP), and carotid stenosis (CS). The overall and stratified prevalences were estimated among the general population and various subpopulations based on demographic characteristics, geographic regions, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Mixed-effects regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for CAS. Results: Among 10 733 975 Chinese participants (mean [SD] age, 47.7 [13.4] years; 5 861 566 [54.6%] male), the estimated prevalences were 26.2% (95% CI, 25.0%-27.4%) for increased cIMT, 21.0% (95% CI, 19.8%-22.2%) for CP, and 0.56% (95% CI, 0.36%-0.76%) for CS. The prevalence of all CAS grades was higher among older adults (eg, increased cIMT: aged ≥80 years, 92.7%; 95% CI, 92.2%-93.3%), male participants (29.6%; 95% CI, 28.4%-30.7%), those residing in northern China (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%), and those who had comorbid conditions, such as hypertension (50.8%; 95% CI, 49.7%-51.9%), diabetes (59.0%; 95% CI, 57.8%-60.1%), dyslipidemia (32.1%; 95% CI, 30.8%-33.3%), and metabolic syndrome (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%). Most cardiovascular disease risk factors were independent risk factors for all CAS stages (eg, hypertension: 1.60 [95% CI, 1.60-1.61] for increased cIMT, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.62-1.63] for CP, and 1.48 [95% CI, 1.45-1.51] for CS). Moreover, the magnitude of the association between several cardiovascular disease risk factors and increased cIMT and CP differed between the sexes and geographic regions. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that nearly one-quarter of Chinese adults have increased cIMT or CP. The burden of this disease is unevenly distributed across geographic regions and subpopulations and may require different levels of local planning, support, and management. Addressing these disparities is crucial for effectively preventing and managing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in China.

Combinatorial Use of Machine Learning and Logistic Regression for Predicting Carotid Plaque Risk Among 5.4 Million Adults With Fatty Liver Disease Receiving Health Check-Ups: Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Carotid plaque can progress into stroke, myocardial infarction, etc, which are major global causes of death. Evidence shows a significant increase in carotid plaque incidence among patients with fatty liver disease. However, unlike the high detection rate of fatty liver disease, screening for carotid plaque in the asymptomatic population is not yet prevalent due to cost-effectiveness reasons, resulting in a large number of patients with undetected carotid plaques, especially among those with fatty liver disease. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to combine the advantages of machine learning (ML) and logistic regression to develop a straightforward prediction model among the population with fatty liver disease to identify individuals at risk of carotid plaque. METHODS: Our study included 5,420,640 participants with fatty liver from Meinian Health Care Center. We used random forest, elastic net (EN), and extreme gradient boosting ML algorithms to select important features from potential predictors. Features acknowledged by all 3 models were enrolled in logistic regression analysis to develop a carotid plaque prediction model. Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis both in a randomly split internal validation data set, and an external validation data set comprising 32,682 participants from MJ Health Check-up Center. Risk cutoff points for carotid plaque were determined based on the Youden index, predicted probability distribution, and prevalence rate of the internal validation data set to classify participants into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. This risk classification was further validated in the external validation data set. RESULTS: Among the participants, 26.23% (1,421,970/5,420,640) were diagnosed with carotid plaque in the development data set, and 21.64% (7074/32,682) were diagnosed in the external validation data set. A total of 6 features, including age, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, and hepatic steatosis index (HSI) were collectively selected by all 3 ML models out of 27 predictors. After eliminating the issue of collinearity between features, the logistic regression model established with the 5 independent predictors reached an area under the curve of 0.831 in the internal validation data set and 0.801 in the external validation data set, and showed good calibration capability graphically. Its predictive performance was comprehensively competitive compared with the single use of either logistic regression or ML algorithms. Optimal predicted probability cutoff points of 25% and 65% were determined for classifying individuals into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories for carotid plaque. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of ML and logistic regression yielded a practical carotid plaque prediction model, and was of great public health implications in the early identification and risk assessment of carotid plaque among individuals with fatty liver.

A dynamic machine learning model for prediction of NAFLD in a health checkup population: A longitudinal study.

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common liver diseases worldwide. Currently, most NAFLD prediction models are diagnostic models based on cross-sectional data, which failed to provide early identification or clarify causal relationships. We aimed to use time-series deep learning models with longitudinal health checkup records to predict the onset of NAFLD in the future, and update the model stepwise by incorporating new checkup records to achieve dynamic prediction. Methods: 10,493 participants with over 6 health checkup records from Beijing MJ Health Screening Center were included to conduct a retrospective cohort study, in which the constantly updated initial 5 checkup data were incorporated stepwise to predict the risk of NAFLD at and after their sixth health checkups. A total of 33 variables were considered, consisting of demographic characteristics, medical history, lifestyle, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. L1-penalized logistic regression (LR) was used for feature selection. The long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm was introduced for model development, and five-fold cross-validation was conducted to tune and choose optimal hyperparameters. Both internal validation and external validation were conducted, using the 20% randomly divided holdout test dataset and previously unseen data from Shanghai MJ Health Screening Center, respectively, to evaluate model performance. The evaluation metrics included area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, Brier score, and decision curve. Bootstrap sampling was implemented to generate 95% confidence intervals of all the metrics. Finally, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was applied in the holdout test dataset for model interpretability to obtain time-specific and sample-specific contributions of each feature. Results: Among the 10,493 participants, 1662 (15.84%) were diagnosed with NAFLD at and after their sixth health checkups. The predictive performance of the deep learning model in the internal validation dataset improved over the incorporation of the checkups, with AUROC increasing from 0.729 (95% CI: 0.698,0.760) at baseline to 0.818 (95% CI: 0.798,0.844) when consecutive 5 checkups were included. The external validation dataset, containing 1728 participants, was used to verify the results, in which AUROC increased from 0.700 (95% CI: 0.657,0.740) with only the first checkups to 0.792 (95% CI: 0.758,0.825) with all five. The results of feature significance showed that body fat percentage, alanine transaminase (ALT), and uric acid owned the greatest impact on the outcome, time-specific, individual-specific and dynamic feature contributions were also produced for model interpretability. Conclusion: A dynamic prediction model was successfully established in our study, and the prediction capability kept improving with the renewal of the latest checkup records. In addition, we identified key features associated with the onset of NAFLD, making it possible to optimize the prevention and control strategies of the disease in the general population.

Circulating Amyloid-ß and Methionine-Related Metabolites to Predict the Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Nested Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: The high cost, limited availability, and perceived invasiveness of amyloid PET and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers limit their use for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to assess the associations of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) with circulating amyloid-ß (Aß), methionine circulating metabolites (MCMs), and their downstream products, and to develop a nomogram based on these easily accessible blood indexes for the individualized prediction of MCI risk in older adults. METHODS: In this nested case-control study, we recruited 74 MCI patients and, for each, 3 matched controls (n = 222) within the context of the Tianjin Elderly Nutrition and Cognition (TENC) cohort, a population-based prospective study in China. Concentrations of Aß, MCMs, and their circulating downstream factors (i.e., leukocyte telomere length and inflammatory cytokines) were evaluated in fasting blood sample using standard procedures. We constructed a nomogram for MCI harnessed multivariable logistic models incorporating variables selected in the Lasso regression. RESULTS: Among the many biomarkers examined, the final prediction nomogram retained only 3 factors: Aß42/Aß40 ratio, Hcy, and SAM/SAH ratio. The model achieved favorable discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.81) in internal validation after adjustment of optimism. The calibration accuracy was satisfactory; the Brier score of the model was 0.161 in internal validation after adjustment of optimism. CONCLUSION: his study presents an individualized prediction nomogram incorporating only three blood biomarkers (i.e., Aß42/Aß40 ratio, Hcy, and SAM/SAH ratio), which can be conveniently utilized to facilitate early identification and the development of high-risk prevention strategies for MCI in older adults.

Association between Dietary Patterns and the Risk of Depressive Symptoms in the Older Adults in Rural China.

Geriatric depression, a chronic condition, has become a substantial burden in rural China. This study aimed to assess the association between dietary patterns and the risk of geriatric depression in rural China. Between March 2018 and June 2019, 3304 participants were recruited for this cross-sectional study in rural Tianjin, China. Principal component analysis was used to determine the major dietary patterns. The associations between dietary patterns and the risk of geriatric depression were assessed using a logistic regression model. Four dietary patterns were identified: vegetables-fruit, animal food, processed food, and milk-egg. The study found that vegetable-fruit (Q2 vs. Q1: OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.46-0.83; Q3 vs. Q1: OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.38-0.75; Q4 vs. Q1: OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.26-0.57) and animal food patterns (Q3 vs. Q1: OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.95; Q4 vs. Q1: OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.41-0.82) were associated with a decreased risk of depression, and inflammatory dietary pattern (Q2 vs. Q1: OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.23-2.38; Q3 vs. Q1: OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.22-2.36; Q4 vs. Q1: OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.03-2.03) was associated with an increased risk of depression. The present findings reinforce the importance of adopting an adequate diet consisting of vegetables, fruit and animal foods, while limiting the intake of pro-inflammatory foods, to decrease the risk of depression.

Triglyceride Level- and MTHFR- Specific Mediation Effect of Handgrip Strength on the Association of Dietary Protein Intake and Cognitive Function in the Chinese Elderly.

BACKGROUND: Recent findings suggest that both dietary protein intake and hand grip strength (HGS) were associated with cognitive function, however, few studies have been devoted specifically to the mediation effect of HGS on the association of dietary protein with cognitive function. OBJECTIVES: To confirm the hypothesis that HGS mediated the association of dietary protein intake with cognitive function in the elderly, which was modified by triglyceride level and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene status. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 3,268 participants. Dietary protein intake, HGS, and cognitive function were collected by food frequency questionnaires (FFQ), grip measurements and mini mental state examination (MMSE), respectively. In this mediation analysis, dietary protein intake was entered as independent variable, HGS was entered as mediator, and cognitive function was entered as dependent variable. RESULTS: HGS significantly mediated the associations of dietary protein (ß = 0.0013, 95% CI: 0.0007, 0.0022), animal protein (ß = 0.0024, 95% CI: 0.0012, 0.0037), and plant protein intake (ß = 0.0011, 95% CI: 0.0001, 0.0023) with cognitive function in total participants, with the mediated proportion of 16.19%, 12.45% and 20.57%, respectively. Furthermore, significant mediation effects of HGS on the associations of dietary protein, animal protein, and plant protein intake with MMSE score were found in the elderly without hypertriglyceridemia or in MTHFR C677T CC/CT carriers. CONCLUSION: This study suggested that HGS mediated the association of dietary protein intake with cognitive function, and this mediation effect was modified by triglyceride level and MTHFR C677T gene status.