Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.

The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding malaria transmission and prevention in an indigenous Maijuna community: a qualitative study in the Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Peru is a low-endemic transmission area for malaria, where the majority (84%) of incident malaria cases are localized to the department of Loreto, which is composed of several geographically isolated rural communities. Recent intervention efforts targeting at-risk Indigenous populations that live in riverine communities in Loreto place emphasis on preventive behaviours to decrease transmission. However, malaria related behaviour change is often dependent upon local knowledge, beliefs, and practices, especially in areas where malaria is viewed an embedded and unavoidable aspect of life. METHODS: This exploratory case study used semi-structured interviews conducted in Spanish between February and March of 2019 to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to malaria prevention among the Indigenous Maijuna people of Sucusari, Loreto, Peru. Participants who consented were also administered a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) upon the time of interview. RESULTS: A total of 33 community members were interviewed, and 31 were tested via malaria rapid diagnostic tests, with RDT filter paper subsequently tested using PCR. All test results were negative for malaria. Themes that emerged included: varying knowledge of methods to prevent malaria, reports of observed changes in malaria incidence over time, confusion surrounding malaria transmission, treatment-seeking as a common behaviour, the belief that medications are effective, and the acceptance of bed nets which were viewed as a lifestyle norm. CONCLUSION: These shared narratives should be used as a foundation for further studies and health interventions among communities in the Peruvian Amazon with limited access to health services where culturally resonant, community-based health programming is essential to improving health. Takeaways regarding confusion surrounding malaria transmission should also be considered.

The challenge of improving long-lasting insecticidal nets coverage on Bioko Island: using data to adapt distribution strategies.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015, malaria vector control on Bioko Island has relied heavily upon long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) to complement other interventions. Despite significant resources utilised, however, achieving and maintaining high coverage has been elusive. Here, core LLIN indicators were used to assess and redefine distribution strategies. METHODS: LLIN indicators were estimated for Bioko Island between 2015 and 2022 using a 1x1 km grid of areas. The way these indicators interacted was used to critically assess coverage targets. Particular attention was paid to spatial heterogeneity and to differences between urban Malabo, the capital, and the rural periphery. RESULTS: LLIN coverage according to all indicators varied substantially across areas, decreased significantly soon after mass distribution campaigns (MDC) and, with few exceptions, remained consistently below the recommended target. Use was strongly correlated with population access, particularly in Malabo. After a change in strategy in Malabo from MDC to fixed distribution points, use-to-access showed significant improvement, indicating those who obtained their nets from these sources were more likely to keep them and use them. Moreover, their use rates were significantly higher than those of whom sourced their nets elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS: Striking a better balance between LLIN distribution efficiency and coverage represents a major challenge as LLIN retention and use rates remain low despite high access resulting from MDC. The cost-benefit of fixed distribution points in Malabo revealed significant advantages, offering a viable alternative for ensuring access to LLINs to those who use them.

Adapting malaria indicator surveys to investigate treatment adherence: a pilot study on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to anti-malarial treatment regimens is an important aspect of understanding and improving the impact of malaria case management. However, both adherence to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and the factors driving it vary widely. While many other evaluation activities have been conducted on Bioko Island, until now adherence to anti-malarial treatments, and in particular ACT has not been evaluated. METHODS: The implementation of a malaria indicator survey (MIS) conducted on Bioko in 2023 was leveraged to evaluate adherence to ACT provided to individuals testing positive following the survey. A follow-up team visited the targeted households, physically observed treatment blisters where possible, and provided messaging to household members on the importance of adhering to the treatment guidelines to household members. The team used survey data from the targeted households to make messaging as relevant to the household's particular context as possible. RESULTS: Overall ACT adherence on Bioko Island was low, around 50%, and this varied demographically and geographically. Some of the highest transmission areas had exceptionally low adherence, but no systematic relationship between proper adherence and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence was detected. Estimates of adherence from follow-up visits were much lower than survey-based estimates in the same households (52.5% versus 87.1%), suggesting that lack of proper adherence may be a much larger issue on Bioko Island than previously thought. CONCLUSION: Representative surveys can be easily adapted to provide empirical estimates of adherence to anti-malarial treatments, complementary to survey-based and health facility-based estimates. The large discrepancy between adherence as measured in this study and survey-based estimates on Bioko Island suggests a health facility-based study to quantify adherence among the population receiving treatment for symptomatic malaria may be necessary.

Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions.

BACKGROUND: Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach. METHODS: This study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.

Assessing IRS performance in a gender-integrated vector control programme on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, 2010-2021.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a common vector control strategy in countries with high malaria burden. Historically, social norms have prevented women from working in IRS programmes. The Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Project has actively sought to reduce gender inequality in malaria control operations for many years by promoting women's participation in IRS. METHODS: This study investigated the progress of female engagement and compared spray productivity by gender from 2010 to 2021, using inferential tests and multivariable regression. Spray productivity was measured by rooms sprayed by spray operator per day (RSOD), houses sprayed by spray operator per day (HSOD), and the daily productivity ratio (DPR), defined as the ratio of RSOD to HSOD, which standardized productivity by house size. RESULTS: The percentage of women participating in IRS has increased over time. The difference in DPR comparing male and female spray operators was only statistically significant (p < 0.05) for two rounds, where the value was higher for women compared to men. Regression analyses showed marginal, significant differences in DPR between men and women, but beta coefficients were extremely small and thus not indicative of a measurable effect of gender on operational performance. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative analyses of spray productivity are counter to stigmatizing beliefs that women are less capable than male counterparts during IRS spray rounds. The findings from this research support the participation of women in IRS campaigns, and a renewed effort to implement equitable policies and practices that intentionally engage women in vector control activities.

Gene Coverage Count and Classification (GC3): a locus sequence coverage assessment tool using short-read whole genome sequencing data, and its application to identify and classify histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 deletions in Plasmodium falciparum.

BACKGROUND: The ability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to effectively detect active infections is being compromised by the presence of malaria strains with genomic deletions at the hrp2 and hrp3 loci, encoding the antigens most commonly targeted in diagnostics for Plasmodium falciparum detection. The presence of such deletions can be determined in publically available P. falciparum whole genome sequencing (WGS) datasets. A computational approach was developed and validated, termed Gene Coverage Count and Classification (GC3), to analyse genome-wide sequence coverage data and provide informative outputs to assess presence and coverage profile of a target locus in WGS data. GC3 was applied to detect deletions at hrp2 and hrp3 (hrp2/3) and flanking genes in different geographic regions and across time points. METHODS: GC3 uses Python and R scripts to extract locus read coverage metrics from mapped WGS data according to user-defined parameters and generates relevant tables and figures. GC3 was tested using WGS data for laboratory reference strains with known hrp2/3 genotypes, and its results compared to those of a hrp2/3-specific qPCR assay. Samples with at least 25% of coding region positions with zero coverage were classified as having a deletion. Publicly available sequence data was analysed and compared with published deletion frequency estimates. RESULTS: GC3 results matched the expected coverage of known laboratory reference strains. Agreement between GC3 and a hrp2/3-specific qPCR assay reported for 19/19 (100%) hrp2 deletions and 18/19 (94.7%) hrp3 deletions. Among Cambodian (n = 127) and Brazilian (n = 20) WGS datasets, which had not been previously analysed for hrp2/3 deletions, GC3 identified hrp2 deletions in three and four samples, and hrp3 deletions in 10 and 15 samples, respectively. Plots of hrp2/3 coding regions, grouped by year of sample collection, showed a decrease in median standardized coverage among Malawian samples (n = 150) suggesting the importance of a careful, properly controlled follow up to determine if an increase in frequency of deletions has occurred between 2007-2008 and 2014-2015. Among Malian (n = 90) samples, median standardized coverage was lower in 2002 than 2010, indicating widespread deletions present at the gene locus in 2002. CONCLUSIONS: The GC3 tool accurately classified hrp2/3 deletions and provided informative tables and figures to analyse targeted gene coverage. GC3 is an appropriate tool when performing preliminary and exploratory assessment of locus coverage data.

Analysis of nucleic acids extracted from rapid diagnostic tests reveals a significant proportion of false positive test results associated with recent malaria treatment.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance programmes often use malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to determine the proportion of the population carrying parasites in their peripheral blood to assess the malaria transmission intensity. Despite an increasing number of reports on false-negative and false-positive RDT results, there is a lack of systematic quality control activities for RDTs deployed in malaria surveillance programmes. METHODS: The diagnostic performance of field-deployed RDTs used for malaria surveys was assessed by retrospective molecular analysis of the blood retained on the tests. RESULTS: Of the 2865 RDTs that were collected in 2018 on Bioko Island and analysed in this study, 4.7% had a false-negative result. These false-negative RDTs were associated with low parasite density infections. In 16.6% of analysed samples, masked pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions were identified, in which at least one Plasmodium falciparum strain carried a gene deletion. Among all positive RDTs analysed, 28.4% were tested negative by qPCR and therefore considered to be false-positive. Analysing the questionnaire data collected from the participants, this high proportion of false-positive RDTs could be explained by P. falciparum histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) antigen persistence after recent malaria treatment. CONCLUSION: Malaria surveillance depending solely on RDTs needs well-integrated quality control procedures to assess the extent and impact of reduced sensitivity and specificity of RDTs on malaria control programmes.

The need for larval source management accompanying urban development projects in malaria endemic areas: a case study on Bioko Island.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, several new housing districts were constructed on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. This case study assessed the impact construction projects had on mosquito larval habitats and the effectiveness of larval source management in reducing malaria vector density within the surrounding area. METHODS: Anopheline larval presence was assessed at 11 new construction sites by the proportion of larval habitats containing Anopheline pupae and late instar larval stages. Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) larvicide was applied weekly to nine locations for 30 weeks, while two locations received no larvicide and acted as controls. Adult mosquito density was monitored via human landing collections in adjacent communities of six construction sites, including the two control sites. RESULTS: The sites that received Bti had significantly lower observation rates of both pupae (3.2% vs. 18.0%; p < 0.001) and late instar Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (14.1 vs. 43.6%; p < 0.001) compared to the two untreated sites. Anopheles spp. accounted for 67% of mosquitoes collected with human landing collections and were captured at significantly lower levels in communities adjacent to treated construction sites compared to untreated sites (p < 0.001), with an estimated 38% reduction in human biting rate (IRR: 0.62, 95% CI IRR: 0.55, 0.69). Seven months after the start of the study, untreated sites were treated due to ethical concerns given results from treatment sties, necessitating immediate Bti application. The following week, the number of habitats, the proportion of larval sites with Anopheles spp. pupae, late instars, and adult biting rates in adjacent communities to these sites all decreased to comparable levels across all sites. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest larval source management represents an effective intervention to suppress mosquito populations during infrastructure development. Incorporating larval source management into ongoing and planned construction initiatives represents an opportunity to fine tune vector control in response to anthropogenetic changes. Ideally, this should become standard practice in malaria-endemic regions in order to reduce viable mosquito habitats that are common by-products of construction.

Diagnostic performance and comparison of ultrasensitive and conventional rapid diagnostic test, thick blood smear and quantitative PCR for detection of low-density Plasmodium falciparum infections during a controlled human malaria infection study in Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Progress towards malaria elimination has stagnated, partly because infections persisting at low parasite densities comprise a large reservoir contributing to ongoing malaria transmission and are difficult to detect. This study compared the performance of an ultrasensitive rapid diagnostic test (uRDT) designed to detect low density infections to a conventional RDT (cRDT), expert microscopy using Giemsa-stained thick blood smears (TBS), and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) during a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) study conducted in malaria exposed adults (NCT03590340). METHODS: Blood samples were collected from healthy Equatoguineans aged 18-35 years beginning on day 8 after CHMI with 3.2 × 103 cryopreserved, infectious Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ Challenge, strain NF54) administered by direct venous inoculation. qPCR (18s ribosomal DNA), uRDT (Alere™ Malaria Ag P.f.), cRDT [Carestart Malaria Pf/PAN (PfHRP2/pLDH)], and TBS were performed daily until the volunteer became TBS positive and treatment was administered. qPCR was the reference for the presence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites. RESULTS: 279 samples were collected from 24 participants; 123 were positive by qPCR. TBS detected 24/123 (19.5% sensitivity [95% CI 13.1-27.8%]), uRDT 21/123 (17.1% sensitivity [95% CI 11.1-25.1%]), cRDT 10/123 (8.1% sensitivity [95% CI 4.2-14.8%]); all were 100% specific and did not detect any positive samples not detected by qPCR. TBS and uRDT were more sensitive than cRDT (TBS vs. cRDT p = 0.015; uRDT vs. cRDT p = 0.053), detecting parasitaemias as low as 3.7 parasites/µL (p/µL) (TBS and uRDT) compared to 5.6 p/µL (cRDT) based on TBS density measurements. TBS, uRDT and cRDT did not detect any of the 70/123 samples positive by qPCR below 5.86 p/µL, the qPCR density corresponding to 3.7 p/µL by TBS. The median prepatent periods in days (ranges) were 14.5 (10-20), 18.0 (15-28), 18.0 (15-20) and 18.0 (16-24) for qPCR, TBS, uRDT and cRDT, respectively; qPCR detected parasitaemia significantly earlier (3.5 days) than the other tests. CONCLUSIONS: TBS and uRDT had similar sensitivities, both were more sensitive than cRDT, and neither matched qPCR for detecting low density parasitaemia. uRDT could be considered an alternative to TBS in selected applications, such as CHMI or field diagnosis, where qualitative, dichotomous results for malaria infection might be sufficient.

A colorimetric test for the evaluation of the insecticide content of LLINs used on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying of insecticides are used as the vector control interventions in the fight against malaria. Measuring the actual amount of deposits of insecticides on bed nets and walls is essential for evaluating the quality and effectiveness of the intervention. A colorimetric "Test Kit" designed for use as a screening tool, able to detect the type II pyrethroids on fabrics and sprayed walls, was used for the first time to detect deltamethrin on long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) deployed on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. METHODS: LLINs were analysed using the colorimetric Test Kit performed in situ, which leads to the formation of an orange-red solution whose depth of colour indicates the amount of type II pyrethroid on the net. The kit results were validated by measuring the amount of extracted insecticide using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with diode array detection (DAD). RESULTS: Deltamethrin concentration was determined for 130 LLINs by HPLC-DAD. The deltamethrin concentration of these nets exhibited a significant decrease with the age of the net from 65 mg/m2 (< 12 months of use) to 31 mg/m2 (> 48 months; p < 0.001). Overall, 18% of the nets being used in households had < 15 mg/m2 of deltamethrin, thus falling into the "Fail" category as assessed by the colorimetric Test Kit. This was supported by determining the bio-efficacy of the nets using the WHO recommended cone bioassays. The Test Kit was field evaluated in situ and found to be rapid, accurate, and easy to use by people without laboratory training. The Test Kit was shown to have a reliable linear relationship between the depth of colour produced and deltamethrin concentration (R2 = 0.9135). CONCLUSION: This study shows that this colorimetric test was a reliable method to assess the insecticidal content of LLINs under operational conditions. The Test Kit provides immediate results and offers a rapid, inexpensive, field-friendly alternative to the complicated and costly methods such as HPLC and WHO cone bioassays which also need specialist staff. Thus, enabling National Malaria Control Programmes to gain access to effective and affordable monitoring tools for use in situ.

Quantifying malaria acquired during travel and its role in malaria elimination on Bioko Island.

BACKGROUND: Malaria elimination is the goal for Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Intensive interventions implemented since 2004 have reduced prevalence, but progress has stalled in recent years. A challenge for elimination has been malaria infections in residents acquired during travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea. The present article quantifies how off-island contributes to remaining malaria prevalence on Bioko Island, and investigates the potential role of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine in making further progress towards elimination. METHODS: Malaria transmission on Bioko Island was simulated using a model calibrated based on data from the Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) from 2015 to 2018, including detailed travel histories and malaria positivity by rapid-diagnostic tests (RDTs), as well as geospatial estimates of malaria prevalence. Mosquito population density was adjusted to fit local transmission, conditional on importation rates under current levels of control and within-island mobility. The simulations were then used to evaluate the impact of two pre-erythrocytic vaccine distribution strategies: mass treat and vaccinate, and prophylactic vaccination for off-island travellers. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis was performed through an ensemble of simulations fit to the Bayesian joint posterior probability distribution of the geospatial prevalence estimates. RESULTS: The simulations suggest that in Malabo, an urban city containing 80% of the population, there are some pockets of residual transmission, but a large proportion of infections are acquired off-island by travellers to the mainland. Outside of Malabo, prevalence was mainly attributable to local transmission. The uncertainty in the local transmission vs. importation is lowest within Malabo and highest outside. Using a pre-erythrocytic vaccine to protect travellers would have larger benefits than using the vaccine to protect residents of Bioko Island from local transmission. In simulations, mass treatment and vaccination had short-lived benefits, as malaria prevalence returned to current levels as the vaccine's efficacy waned. Prophylactic vaccination of travellers resulted in longer-lasting reductions in prevalence. These projections were robust to underlying uncertainty in prevalence estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The modelled outcomes suggest that the volume of malaria cases imported from the mainland is a partial driver of continued endemic malaria on Bioko Island, and that continued elimination efforts on must account for human travel activity.

Clustering of subpatent infections in households with asymptomatic rapid diagnostic test-positive cases in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea independent of travel to regions of higher malaria endemicity: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of falciparum malaria on Bioko Island remains high despite sustained, intensive control. Progress may be hindered by high proportions of subpatent infections that are not detected by rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) but contribute to onward transmission, and by imported infections. Better understanding of the relationship between subpatent infections and RDT-detected infections, and whether this relationship is different from imported versus locally acquired infections, is imperative to better understand the sources of infection and mechanisms of transmission to tailor more effective interventions. METHODS: Quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed on a sub-set of samples from the 2015 Malaria Indicator Survey to identify subpatent infections. Households with RDT(+) individuals were matched 1:4 with households with no RDT(+) individuals. The association between living in a household with an RDT(+) individual and having a subpatent infection was evaluated using multivariate hierarchical logistic regression models with inverse probability weights for selection. To evaluate possible modification of the association by potential importation of the RDT(+) case, the analysis was repeated among strata of matched sets based on the reported eight-week travel history of the RDT(+) individual(s). RESULTS: There were 142 subpatent infections detected in 1,400 individuals (10.0%). The prevalence of subpatent infections was higher in households with versus without an RDT(+) individual (15.0 vs 9.1%). The adjusted prevalence odds of subpatent infection were 2.59-fold greater (95% CI: 1.31, 5.09) for those in a household with an RDT(+) individual compared to individuals in a household without RDT(+) individuals. When stratifying by travel history of the RDT(+) individual, the association between subpatent infections and RDT(+) infections was stronger in the strata in which the RDT(+) individual(s) had not recently travelled (adjusted prevalence odds ratio (aPOR) 2.95; 95% CI:1.17, 7.41), and attenuated in the strata in which recent travel was reported (aPOR 1.76; 95% CI: 0.54, 5.67). CONCLUSIONS: There is clustering of subpatent infections around RDT(+) individual(s) when both imported and local infection are suspected. Future control strategies that aim to treat whole households in which an RDT(+) individual is found may target a substantial portion of infections that would otherwise not be detected.

Incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in 6-month to 45-year-olds on selected areas of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Extensive malaria control measures have been implemented on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea over the past 16 years, reducing parasite prevalence and malaria-related morbidity and mortality, but without achieving elimination. Malaria vaccines offer hope for reducing the burden to zero. Three phase 1/2 studies have been conducted successfully on Bioko Island to evaluate the safety and efficacy of whole Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoite (SPZ) malaria vaccines. A large, pivotal trial of the safety and efficacy of the radiation-attenuated Sanaria® PfSPZ Vaccine against P. falciparum is planned for 2022. This study assessed the incidence of malaria at the phase 3 study site and characterized the influence of socio-demographic factors on the burden of malaria to guide trial design. METHODS: A cohort of 240 randomly selected individuals aged 6 months to 45 years from selected areas of North Bioko Province, Bioko Island, was followed for 24 weeks after clearance of parasitaemia. Assessment of clinical presentation consistent with malaria and thick blood smears were performed every 2 weeks. Incidence of first and multiple malaria infections per person-time of follow-up was estimated, compared between age groups, and examined for associated socio-demographic risk factors. RESULTS: There were 58 malaria infection episodes observed during the follow up period, including 47 first and 11 repeat infections. The incidence of malaria was 0.25 [95% CI (0.19, 0.32)] and of first malaria was 0.23 [95% CI (0.17, 0.30)] per person per 24 weeks (0.22 in 6-59-month-olds, 0.26 in 5-17-year-olds, 0.20 in 18-45-year-olds). Incidence of first malaria with symptoms was 0.13 [95% CI (0.09, 0.19)] per person per 24 weeks (0.16 in 6-59-month-olds, 0.10 in 5-17-year-olds, 0.11 in 18-45-year-olds). Multivariate assessment showed that study area, gender, malaria positivity at screening, and household socioeconomic status independently predicted the observed incidence of malaria. CONCLUSION: Despite intensive malaria control efforts on Bioko Island, local transmission remains and is spread evenly throughout age groups. These incidence rates indicate moderate malaria transmission which may be sufficient to support future larger trials of PfSPZ Vaccine. The long-term goal is to conduct mass vaccination programmes to halt transmission and eliminate P. falciparum malaria.

Improving the performance of spray operators through monitoring and evaluation of insecticide concentrations of pirimiphos-methyl during indoor residual spraying for malaria control on Bioko Island.

BACKGROUND: Quality control of indoor residual spraying (IRS) is necessary to ensure that spray operators (SOs) deposit the correct concentration of insecticide on sprayed structures, while also confirming that spray records are not being falsified. METHODS: Using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), this study conducted quality control of the organophosphate insecticide pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic 300CS), during the 2018 IRS round on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Approximately 60 SOs sprayed a total of 67,721 structures in 16,653 houses during the round. Houses that were reportedly sprayed were randomly selected for quality control testing. The SOs were monitored twice in 2018, an initial screening in March followed by sharing of results with the IRS management team and identification of SOs to be re-trained, and a second screening in June to monitor the effectiveness of training. Insecticide samples were adhesive-lifted from wooden and cement structures and analysed using HPLC. RESULTS: The study suggests that with adequate quality control measures and refresher training, suboptimal spraying was curtailed, with a significant increased concentration delivered to the bedroom (difference = 0.36, P < 0.001) and wooden surfaces (difference 0.41, P = 0.001). Additionally, an increase in effective coverage by SOs was observed, improving from 80.7% in March to 94.7% in June after re-training (McNemar's test; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The ability to randomly select, locate, and test houses reportedly sprayed within a week via HPLC has led to improvements in the performance of SOs on Bioko Island, enabling the project to better evaluate its own performance.

Malaria outbreak in Riaba district, Bioko Island: lessons learned.

At the beginning of 2019, a sudden surge of malaria cases was observed in the district of Riaba, Bioko Island. Between January and April, confirmed malaria cases increased 3.8-fold compared to the same period in 2018. Concurrently, anopheline human biting rate (HBR) increased 2.1-fold. During the outbreak, 82.2% of the district population was tested for malaria with a rapid diagnostic test; 37.2% of those tested had a detectable infection and were treated according to national guidelines. Vector control interventions, including indoor residual spraying and larval source management were scaled-up. After the interventions, the number of confirmed cases decreased by 70% and the overall parasite prevalence in the communities by 43.8%. Observed prevalence in a follow up malaria indicator survey, however, was significantly higher than elsewhere on the island, and higher than in previous years. There was no significant reduction in HBR, which remained high for the rest of the year. The surge was attributed to various factors, chiefly increased rainfall and a large number of anthropogenic anopheline breeding sites created by construction works. This case study highlights the need for sustained vector control interventions and multi-sector participation, particularly in malaria control and elimination settings with persistently high local malaria receptivity.

Characterising malaria connectivity using malaria indicator survey data.

Malaria connectivity describes the flow of parasites among transmission sources and sinks within a given landscape. Because of the spatial and temporal scales at which parasites are transported by their hosts, malaria sub-populations are largely defined by mosquito movement and malaria connectivity among them is largely driven by human movement. Characterising malaria connectivity thus requires characterising human travel between areas with differing levels of exposure to malaria. Whilst understanding malaria connectivity is fundamental for optimising interventions, particularly in areas seeking or sustaining elimination, there is a dearth of human movement data required to achieve this goal. Malaria indicator surveys (MIS) are a generally under utilised but potentially rich source of travel data that provide a unique opportunity to study simple associations between malaria infection and human travel in large population samples. This paper shares the experience working with MIS data from Bioko Island that revealed programmatically useful information regarding malaria importation through human travel. Simple additions to MIS questionnaires greatly augmented the level of detail of the travel data, which can be used to characterise human travel patterns and malaria connectivity to assist targeting interventions. It is argued that MIS potentially represent very important and timely sources of travel data that need to be further exploited.

Mapping and enumerating houses and households to support malaria control interventions on Bioko Island.

BACKGROUND: Housing mapping and household enumeration are essential for the planning, implementation, targeting, and monitoring of malaria control interventions. In many malaria endemic countries, control efforts are hindered by incomplete or non-existent housing cartography and household enumeration. This paper describes the development of a comprehensive mapping and enumeration system to support the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP). RESULTS: A highly detailed database was developed to include every housing unit on Bioko Island and uniquely enumerate the associated households residing in these houses. First, the island was divided into a virtual, geo-dereferenced grid of 1 × 1 km sequentially numbered map-areas, each of which was in turn subdivided into one hundred, 100 × 100 m sequentially numbered map-sectors. Second, high-resolution satellite imagery was used to sequentially and uniquely identify all housing units within each map-sector. Third, where satellite imagery was not available, global positioning systems (GPS) were used as the basis for uniquely identifying and mapping housing units in a sequential manner. A total of 97,048 housing units were mapped by 2018, 56% of which were concentrated in just 5.2% of Bioko Island's total mapped area. Of these housing units, 70.7% were occupied, thus representing uniquely identified households. CONCLUSIONS: The housing unit mapping and household enumeration system developed for Bioko Island enabled the BIMCP to more effectively plan, implement, target, and monitor malaria control interventions. Since 2014, the BIMCP has used the unique household identifiers to monitor all household-level interventions, including indoor residual spraying, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets distribution, and annual malaria indicator surveys. The coding system used to create the unique housing unit and household identifiers is highly intuitive and allows quick location of any house within the grid without a GPS. Its flexibility has permitted the BIMCP to easily take into account the rapid and substantial changes in housing infrastructure. Importantly, by utilizing this coding system, an unprecedented quantity and diversity of detailed, geo-referenced demographic and health data have been assembled that have proved highly relevant for informing decision-making both for malaria control and potentially for the wider public health agenda on Bioko Island.

High night temperatures during grain number determination reduce wheat and barley grain yield: a field study.

Warm nights are a widespread predicted feature of climate change. This study investigated the impact of high night temperatures during the critical period for grain yield determination in wheat and barley crops under field conditions, assessing the effects on development, growth and partitioning crop-level processes driving grain number per unit area (GN). Experiments combined: (i) two contrasting radiation and temperature environments: late sowing in 2011 and early sowing in 2013, (ii) two well-adapted crops with similar phenology: bread wheat and two-row malting barley and (iii) two temperature regimes: ambient and high night temperatures. The night temperature increase (ca. 3.9 °C in both crops and growing seasons) was achieved using purpose-built heating chambers placed on the crop at 19:000 hours and removed at 7:00 hours every day from the third detectable stem node to 10 days post-flowering. Across growing seasons and crops, the average minimum temperature during the critical period ranged from 11.2 to 17.2 °C. Wheat and barley grain yield were similarly reduced under warm nights (ca. 7% °C(-1) ), due to GN reductions (ca. 6% °C(-1) ) linked to a lower number of spikes per m(2) . An accelerated development under high night temperatures led to a shorter critical period duration, reducing solar radiation capture with negative consequences for biomass production, GN and therefore, grain yield. The information generated could be used as a starting point to design management and/or breeding strategies to improve crop adaptation facing climate change.

A paradigm for Africa-centric vaccine development in Equatorial Guinea.

The Equatorial Guinea Malaria Vaccine Initiative (EGMVI) highlights how long-term African government and international energy industry investment, plus novel partnerships, can enable clinical development of vaccines in Africa, for Africa. We review achievements and challenges of this pioneering, award-winning, public-private partnership which offers a model for future Africa-centric clinical research and development (R&D).