Spatial Epidemiologic Trends and Hotspots of Leishmaniasis, Sri Lanka, 2001-2018.

Leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, is on the decline in South Asia. However, cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis have risen in Sri Lanka since 2001, and the lack of in-depth research on its epidemiologic characteristics hampers control efforts. We analyzed data collected from patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka during 2001-2018 to study temporal and geographic trends and identify and monitor disease hotspots. We noted a progression in case rates, including a sharp rise in 2018, showing temporal expansion of disease-prevalent areas and 2 persistent hotspots. The northern hotspot shifted and shrank over time, but the southern hotspot progressively expanded and remained spatially static. In addition, we noted regional incidence differences for age and sex. We provide evidence of temporally progressive and spatially expanding incidence of leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka with distinct geographic patterns and disease hotspots, signaling an urgent need for effective disease control interventions.

Poliovirus Type 2 Seroprevalence Following Full- or Fractional-Dose Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in the Period After Sabin Type 2 Withdrawal in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: In July 2016, Sri Lanka replaced 1 intramuscular dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) with 2 doses of intradermal fractional-dose IPV (fIPV) in its routine immunization schedule. We carried out a survey of seroprevalence of antipolio antibodies in children who received 2 fIPV doses and compared it with those who received 1 full IPV dose. METHODS: Children born between March and December 2016 were randomly selected from 3 Sri Lankan districts (Colombo, Badulla, and Anuradhapura). Serum samples were collected and tested for presence of neutralizing antibodies to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of antipolio antibodies was 100% in all districts for poliovirus type 1 and poliovirus type 3; it ranged between 90% and 93% for poliovirus type 2 (PV2) in children who received 1 full IPV dose and between 78% and 100% in those receiving 2 fIPV doses (P = .22). The median reciprocal titers of anti-PV2 antibodies were similar in children who received full-dose IPV and those who received fIPV (1:64 vs 1:45, respectively; P = .11). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated not only that Sri Lanka succeeded in maintaining very high primary immunization coverage also but that it is feasible for a national immunization program to implement fIPV immunization and achieve high coverage with intradermal application. The seroprevalence of anti-PV2 antibodies did not decrease after the introduction of fIPV.

Prevalence and risk factors for impaired kidney function in the district of Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka: a cross-sectional population-representative survey in those at risk of chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 20 years there have been reports of a form of chronic kidney disease of unknown cause (CKDu) affecting rural communities in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka. Valid prevalence estimates, using a standardised methodology, are needed to assess the burden of disease, assess secular trends, and perform international comparisons. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional representative population survey in five study areas with different expected prevalences of CKDu. We used a proxy definition of CKDu involving a single measure of impaired kidney function (eGFR< 60 mL/min/1.7m2, using the CKD-Epi formula) in the absence of hypertension, diabetes or heavy proteinuria. RESULTS: A total of 4803 participants (88.7%) took part in the study and 202 (6.0%; 95% CI 5.2-6.8) had a low eGFR in the absence of hypertension, diabetes and heavy proteinuria and hence met the criteria for proxy CKDu. The proportion of males (11.2%; 95% CI 9.2-13.1) were triple than the females (3.7%; 95% CI 2.9-4.5). Advancing age and history of CKD among parents or siblings were risk factors for low GFR among both males and females while smoking was found to be a risk factor among males. CONCLUSIONS: These data, collected using a standardised methodology demonstrate a high prevalence of impaired kidney function, not due to known causes of kidney disease, in the selected study areas of the Anuradhapura district of Sri Lanka. The aetiology of CKDu in Sri Lanka remains unclear and there is a need for longitudinal studies to describe the natural history and to better characterise risk factors for the decline in kidney function.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in Sri Lanka: Ongoing costs and operational context of a routinized program.

Existing evidence on the cost of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs has focused on pilot and demonstration projects or initial introductions, which resulted in a perceived high cost. We aimed to study the ongoing cost and operational context of an established HPV vaccination program in Sri Lanka. We conducted a retrospective operational research and microcosting study focusing on 2019. We collected data from 30 divisional health units, 10 districts, and the central level. We then evaluated financial and economic costs, reported by level of the health system, program activity, cost types, and per dose delivered. In 2019, Sri Lanka delivered a total of 314,815 doses of HPV vaccine. In our study sample, 95 % of the HPV vaccination sessions took place at schools, with peaks of delivery in February-March and September-October. The weighted mean financial cost per dose delivered was $0.27 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: $0.15-$0.39) and the economic cost per dose was $3.88 (95 % CI: $2.67-$5.10), excluding the cost of vaccines and supplies. Most of the cost was borne by the divisional health unit level. Service delivery and social mobilization were major contributors to overall costs at the divisional health unit level, and vaccine collection or distribution and storage were the most costly activities at the district and central levels. Cost drivers included the opportunity cost of health worker and non-health worker time at the divisional health unit level and capital costs for vehicles and equipment, along with fuel, maintenance, and energy, at the district and central levels. This study provides new evidence on the cost and cost drivers of a routinized HPV vaccination program. Results can be used for financial planning purposes in Sri Lanka and may inform other countries as they consider use of HPV vaccines.

Cost and operational context for national human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine delivery in six low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: There are concerns from immunization program planners about high delivery costs for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. Most prior research evaluated costs of HPV vaccine delivery during demonstration projects or at introduction, showing relatively high costs, which may not reflect the costs beyond the pilot or introduction years. This study sought to understand the operational context and estimate delivery costs for HPV vaccine in six national programs, beyond their introduction years. METHODS: Operational research and microcosting methods were used to retrospectively collect primary data on HPV vaccination program activities in Ethiopia, Guyana, Rwanda, Senegal, Sri Lanka, and Uganda. Data were collected from the national level and a sample of subnational administrative offices and health facilities. Operational data collected were tabulated as percentages and frequencies. Financial costs (monetary outlays) and economic costs (financial plus opportunity costs) were estimated, as was the cost per HPV vaccine dose delivered. Costing was done from the health system perspective and reported in 2019 United States dollars (US$). RESULTS: Across the study countries, between 53 % and 99 % of HPV vaccination sessions were conducted in schools. Differences were observed in intensity and frequency with which program activities were conducted and resources used. Mean annual economic costs at health facilities in each country ranged from $1,207 to $3,190, while at the national level these ranged from $7,657 to $304,278. Mean annual HPV vaccine doses delivered per health facility in each country ranged from 162 to 761. Mean financial costs per dose per study country ranged from $0.27 to $3.32, while the economic cost per dose ranged from $3.09 to $17.20. CONCLUSION: HPV vaccine delivery costs were lower than at introduction in some study countries. There were differences in the activities carried out for HPV vaccine delivery and the number of doses delivered, impacting the cost estimates.

Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka.

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios, the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing, the epidemiological curve flattened, and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however, subsequently, it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.

Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates.

BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease, which is on the rise in Sri Lanka. Spatiotemporal and risk factor analyses are useful for understanding transmission dynamics, spatial clustering and predicting future disease distribution and trends to facilitate effective infection control. METHODS: The nationwide clinically confirmed cutaneous leishmaniasis and climatic data were collected from 2001 to 2019. Hierarchical clustering and spatiotemporal cross-correlation analysis were used to measure the region-wide and local (between neighboring districts) synchrony of transmission. A mixed spatiotemporal regression-autoregression model was built to study the effects of climatic, neighboring-district dispersal, and infection carryover variables on leishmaniasis dynamics and spatial distribution. Same model without climatic variables was used to predict the future distribution and trends of leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka. RESULTS: A total of 19,361 clinically confirmed leishmaniasis cases have been reported in Sri Lanka from 2001-2019. There were three phases identified: low-transmission phase (2001-2010), parasite population buildup phase (2011-2017), and outbreak phase (2018-2019). Spatially, the districts were divided into three groups based on similarity in temporal dynamics. The global mean correlation among district incidence dynamics was 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), and the localized mean correlation between neighboring districts was 0.58 (95% CI 0.42-0.73). Risk analysis for the seven districts with the highest incidence rates indicated that precipitation, neighboring-district effect, and infection carryover effect exhibited significant correlation with district-level incidence dynamics. Model-predicted incidence dynamics and case distribution matched well with observed results, except for the outbreak in 2018. The model-predicted 2020 case number is about 5,400 cases, with intensified transmission and expansion of high-transmission area. The predicted case number will be 9115 in 2022 and 19212 in 2025. CONCLUSIONS: The drastic upsurge in leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka in the last few year was unprecedented and it was strongly linked to precipitation, high burden of localized infections and inter-district dispersal. Targeted interventions are urgently needed to arrest an uncontrollable disease spread.

National introduction of fractional-dose inactivated polio vaccine in Sri Lanka following the global "switch".

As part of the Polio eradication and endgame strategic plan 2013-2018 to achieve and sustain a polio-free world, the use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) must eventually be stopped. This process started in April 2016, with the worldwide, planned synchronized "switch", whereby use of OPV containing poliovirus type 2 ceased. Prior to the switch, in line with international guidance on risk mitigation, Sri Lanka had introduced a single full dose (0.5 mL intramuscularly) of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization. However, the two global suppliers of World Health Organization (WHO)-prequalified IPV had significant challenges in scaling up production to meet the new demand, resulting in a global shortage in April 2016. The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization recommended that countries should consider a two-dose schedule of intradermal fractional IPV (fIPV). After rapid consideration of the programmatic cost and logistic implications, Sri Lanka was the first country to roll out this dose-sparing schedule nationwide. The country ensured smooth implementation of fIPV use, reaching out to all eligible infants, maintaining equity and sustaining the IPV vaccination. With expedited refresher training in intradermal vaccination, confident, well-trained and dedicated health-care staff, from the field up to provincial levels, worked together as a dedicated team. Health authorities at all levels reported that public acceptance of the additional injections of the new schedule was high. A post-introduction evaluation and an assessment of population-level immunity are under way.

Interventions for increasing chlamydia screening in primary care: a review.

BACKGROUND: Despite guidelines recommending opportunistic chlamydia screening of younger women, screening rates in some countries remain low. Our aim was to review the evidence for specific interventions aimed at increasing chlamydia screening rates in primary care. METHODS: A Medline search was conducted for controlled trials that assessed the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving chlamydia screening rates in primary health care settings. The Medline search was done for studies in English published prior to December 2005 using the following key words: chlamydia, screening, intervention, primary care and GPs. In addition, the references cited in the articles were reviewed. Studies in English published prior to December 2005 were reviewed. RESULTS: Four controlled studies met the inclusion criteria--3 were randomized studies and one was not. Strategies to increase screening rates included the use of educational packages targeting primary care physicians and the correction of barriers to screening within clinic systems. In 3 studies, the intervention was associated with an increase in screening rates of between 100% and 276% (p < 0.04). In the fourth study, the intervention was associated with a significant attenuation in declining screening rates over time (4% versus 34% decline, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: There are only a limited number of randomized or controlled studies that demonstrate improved chlamydia screening of younger women in primary care.

Rising HIV notifications in Australia: accounting for the increase in people living with HIV and implications for the HIV transmission rate.

BACKGROUND: To describe the changes in notification rates for HIV, as a proportion of people living with HIV infection, in Australia. METHODS: Notification data on HIV and AIDS-related deaths published by the National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research were obtained and analysed for the period of 1988-2004. RESULTS: The annual HIV notification rate per 100 people living with HIV fell significantly between 1988 and 1999 for all HIV cases and for men who have sex with men (MSM) specifically (P < 0.01). However, although there was an increase in HIV notifications between 2000 and 2004 (P = 0.01 for all HIV cases and P = 0.06 for MSM), the notification rate per 100 people living with HIV remained relatively stable (P = 0.6 for all HIV cases and P = 0.4 for MSM). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that despite significant rises in notifications for HIV, the effective reproductive rate for HIV has remained relatively stable since 1999.

Antibiotic consumption and chlamydia prevalence in international studies.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether there is an ecological association between antibiotic use and chlamydia prevalence. METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken of international studies on chlamydia prevalence among women aged 15-25 years published between 2000 and 2005. Preference was given to studies using nucleic acid testing and representative population-based sampling methods. Data were obtained on per capita antibiotic consumption according to the defined daily dose. RESULTS: For the 12 countries for which both antibiotic consumption and relevant prevalence data for chlamydia were available, a non-significant negative correlation was found between total antibiotic consumption per capita and chlamydia prevalence among younger women according to country (r(s) = -0.242, P = 0.449). When an outlier (from the Netherlands) was excluded, the correlation was significant (r(s) = -0.615, P = 0.044). Combined use of tetracyclines and macrolides was also associated with lower chlamydia prevalence (r(s) = -0.697, P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: It is possible that antibiotics used for other reasons may have unexpectedly reduced the prevalence of chlamydia.