RESUMO
The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.
RESUMO
Abandoned, lost, or discarded fishing gear (ALDFG), represents a significant percentage of the global plastic pollution, currently considered one of the major sources from sea-based activities. However, there is still limited understanding of the quantities of ALDFG present on the seafloor and their impacts. In this study, data on the presence of ALDFG was obtained from a large archive of seafloor video footage (351 dives) collected by different imaging platforms in the Azores region over 15 years (2006-2020). Most ALDFG items observed in the images relate to the local bottom longline fishery operating in the region, and include longlines but also anchors, weights, cables and buoys. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was used to predict the distribution and abundance of ALDFG over the seafloor within the limits of the Azores Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. We estimated an average of 113 ± 310 items km-2 (597 ± 756 per km-2 above 1000 m depth), which could imply that over 20 million ALDFG items are present on the deep seafloor of the Azores EEZ. The resulting model identified potential hotspots of ALDFG along the seabed, some of them located over sensitive benthic habitats, such as specific seamounts. In addition, the interactions between ALDFG and benthic organisms were also analysed. Numerous entanglements were observed with several species of large anthozoans and sponges. The use of predictive distribution modelling for ALDFG should be regarded as a useful tool to support ecosystem-based management, which can provide indirect information about fishing pressure and allow the identification of potential high-risk areas. Additional knowledge about the sources, amounts, fates and impacts of ALDFG will be key to address the global issue of plastic pollution and the effects of fishing on marine ecosystems.