Loxodonta Localizer: A Software Tool for Inferring the Provenance of African Elephants and Their Ivory Using Mitochondrial DNA.

Illegal hunting is a major threat to the elephants of Africa, with more elephants killed by poachers than die from natural causes. DNA from tusks has been used to infer the source populations for confiscated ivory, relying on nuclear genetic markers. However, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences can also provide information on the geographic origins of elephants due to female elephant philopatry. Here, we introduce the Loxodonta Localizer (LL; www.loxodontalocalizer.org), an interactive software tool that uses a database of mtDNA sequences compiled from previously published studies to provide information on the potential provenance of confiscated ivory. A 316 bp control region sequence, which can be readily generated from DNA extracted from ivory, is used as a query. The software generates a listing of haplotypes reported among 1917 African elephants in 24 range countries, sorted in order of similarity to the query sequence. The African locations from which haplotype sequences have been previously reported are shown on a map. We demonstrate examples of haplotypes reported from only a single locality or country, examine the utility of the program in identifying elephants from countries with varying degrees of sampling, and analyze batches of confiscated ivory. The LL allows for the source of confiscated ivory to be assessed within days, using widely available molecular methods that do not depend on a particular platform or laboratory. The program enables identification of potential regions or localities from which elephants are being poached, with capacity for rapid identification of populations newly or consistently targeted by poachers.

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

The theoretical limit to plant productivity.

Human population and economic growth are accelerating the demand for plant biomass to provide food, fuel, and fiber. The annual increment of biomass to meet these needs is quantified as net primary production (NPP). Here we show that an underlying assumption in some current models may lead to underestimates of the potential production from managed landscapes, particularly of bioenergy crops that have low nitrogen requirements. Using a simple light-use efficiency model and the theoretical maximum efficiency with which plant canopies convert solar radiation to biomass, we provide an upper-envelope NPP unconstrained by resource limitations. This theoretical maximum NPP approached 200 tC ha(-1) yr(-1) at point locations, roughly 2 orders of magnitude higher than most current managed or natural ecosystems. Recalculating the upper envelope estimate of NPP limited by available water reduced it by half or more in 91% of the land area globally. While the high conversion efficiencies observed in some extant plants indicate great potential to increase crop yields without changes to the basic mechanism of photosynthesis, particularly for crops with low nitrogen requirements, realizing such high yields will require improvements in water use efficiency.

Spatial scale affects novel and disappeared climate change projections in Alaska.

The formation of novel and disappeared climates between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the present is important to consider to understand the expansion and contraction of species niches and distributions, as well as the formation and loss of communities and ecological interactions over time. Our choice in climate data resolution has the potential to complicate predictions of the ecological impacts of climate change, since climate varies from local to global scales and this spatial variation is reflected in climate data. To address this issue, we downscaled LGM and modern (1975-2005) 30-year averaged climate data to 60-m resolution for the entire state of Alaska for 10 different climate variables, and then upsampled each variable to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km). We modeled the distributions of novel and disappeared climates to evaluate the locations and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates for each of our climate variables and resolutions. Generally, novel and disappeared climates were located in southern Alaska, although there were cases where some disappeared climates existed within coastal and interior Alaska. Climate resolution affected the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates in three patterns: As the spatial resolution of climate became coarser, the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates (a) increased, (b) decreased, or (c) had no explainable relationship. Overall, we found the use of coarser climate data increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates due to decreased environmental variability and removal of climate extremes. Our results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse climate data and suggest that studies analyzing the effects of climate change on ecosystems may overestimate or underestimate their conclusions when utilizing coarse climate data.

Distribution of Y chromosomes among native North Americans: a study of Athapaskan population history.

In this study, 231 Y chromosomes from 12 populations were typed for four diagnostic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to determine haplogroup membership and 43 Y chromosomes from three of these populations were typed for eight short tandem repeats (STRs) to determine haplotypes. These data were combined with previously published data, amounting to 724 Y chromosomes from 26 populations in North America, and analyzed to investigate the geographic distribution of Y chromosomes among native North Americans and to test the Southern Athapaskan migration hypothesis. The results suggest that European admixture has significantly altered the distribution of Y chromosomes in North America and because of this caution should be taken when inferring prehistoric population events in North America using Y chromosome data alone. However, consistent with studies of other genetic systems, we are still able to identify close relationships among Y chromosomes in Athapaskans from the Subarctic and the Southwest, suggesting that a small number of proto-Apachean migrants from the Subarctic founded the Southwest Athapaskan populations.

Quantifying environmental limiting factors on tree cover using geospatial data.

Environmental limiting factors (ELFs) are the thresholds that determine the maximum or minimum biological response for a given suite of environmental conditions. We asked the following questions: 1) Can we detect ELFs on percent tree cover across the eastern slopes of the Lake Tahoe Basin, NV? 2) How are the ELFs distributed spatially? 3) To what extent are unmeasured environmental factors limiting tree cover? ELFs are difficult to quantify as they require significant sample sizes. We addressed this by using geospatial data over a relatively large spatial extent, where the wall-to-wall sampling ensures the inclusion of rare data points which define the minimum or maximum response to environmental factors. We tested mean temperature, minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and PET minus precipitation (PET-P) as potential limiting factors on percent tree cover. We found that the study area showed system-wide limitations on tree cover, and each of the factors showed evidence of being limiting on tree cover. However, only 1.2% of the total area appeared to be limited by the four (4) environmental factors, suggesting other unmeasured factors are limiting much of the tree cover in the study area. Where sites were near their theoretical maximum, non-forest sites (tree cover < 25%) were primarily limited by cold mean temperatures, open-canopy forest sites (tree cover between 25% and 60%) were primarily limited by evaporative demand, and closed-canopy forests were not limited by any particular environmental factor. The detection of ELFs is necessary in order to fully understand the width of limitations that species experience within their geographic range.

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century.

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916-2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century.

Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations.

Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily explained by species' niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.

The structure of diversity within New World mitochondrial DNA haplogroups: implications for the prehistory of North America.

The mitochondrial DNA haplogroups and hypervariable segment I (HVSI) sequences of 1,612 and 395 Native North Americans, respectively, were analyzed to identify major prehistoric population events in North America. Gene maps and spatial autocorrelation analyses suggest that populations with high frequencies of haplogroups A, B, and X experienced prehistoric population expansions in the North, Southwest, and Great Lakes region, respectively. Haplotype networks showing high levels of reticulation and high frequencies of nodal haplotypes support these results. The haplotype networks suggest the existence of additional founding lineages within haplogroups B and C; however, because of the hypervariability exhibited by the HVSI data set, similar haplotypes exhibited in Asia and America could be due to convergence rather than common ancestry. The hypervariability and reticulation preclude the use of estimates of genetic diversity within haplogroups to argue for the number of migrations to the Americas.