Black eye syndrome and a systemic rickettsia-like organism in Alaskan Chionoecetes spp. crabs, including normal eyestalk microanatomy.

A black eye syndrome (BES) was discovered in both captive and wild populations of Alaskan snow crabs Chionoecetes opilio and Tanner crabs C. bairdi. Field prevalences ranged from 0.37% (n = 594/161295) to 19.6% (n = 62/316) in snow crabs from the eastern Bering Sea and from 0.09% (n = 15/16638) to 0.7% (n = 133/18473) in Tanner crabs from the same trawl samples, with a slightly greater percentage (1.4%, n = 57/3945) in Tanner crabs from the Aleutian and Kodiak islands fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska. BES is not associated with crab mortality and has 2 distinct manifestations: abnormal black foci of internal eye pigment with no discernible histological lesions, which, in many cases, is followed by corneal shell disease with ulceration and distal eyestalk erosion. It is assumed for this study that these are early and late stages of BES that are somehow related. Our results suggest that early stages of abnormal pigmentation are noninfectious, possibly related to changing ocean conditions affecting crab endocrinology and neuropeptide control of secondary eye pigment. Potential light-induced photoreceptor damage of harvested crabs with dark-adapted eyes is another anthropogenic factor possibly contributing to the early changes in eye pigmentation. Normal eyestalk microanatomy specific for Chionoecetes spp. is provided as necessary baseline information for future studies. Early in the study, an unreported rickettsia-like organism (RLO) was discovered infecting dissected black eyestalks submitted for examination from 5 of 6 dead snow crabs, suggesting association with BES. Subsequent samples indicated the RLO was systemic, infected both black and normal-appearing eyestalks, and was unrelated to BES. However, the multiorgan infection and histopathology indicated the RLO could be a primary pathogen of snow crabs.

Evaluating the effect of nuclear inclusion X (NIX) infections on Pacific razor clam populations.

Nuclear inclusion X (NIX), the etiological agent of bacterial gill disease in Pacific razor clams Siliqua patula, was associated with host mortality events in coastal Washington State, USA, during the mid-1980s. Ongoing observations of truncated razor clam size distributions in Kalaloch Beach, Washington, raised concerns that NIX continues to impact populations. We conducted a series of spatial and longitudinal NIX surveillances, examined archived razor clam gill tissue, and used population estimates from stock assessments to test whether (1) the prevalence and intensity of NIX infections is higher at Kalaloch Beach relative to nearby beaches, (2) infected gill tissue has features consistent with historical descriptions of NIX-associated histopathology, and (3) annual clam survival is inversely related to NIX infection prevalence and intensity. NIX prevalence exceeded 85% at all sampled locations, and infection intensity was the highest at Kalaloch Beach by 0.9-2.6 orders of magnitude. Kalaloch Beach clams revealed histopathology consistent with previous NIX epidemics, including enlarged and/or rupturing branchial epithelial cells, branchial necrosis, and high hemocyte densities. Estimated annual survival was 22% at Kalaloch Beach, and ranged between 57 and 99% at other study sites. NIX infection intensity (via quantitative PCR) was not significantly correlated with annual survival; however, annual survival was lowest at Kalaloch Beach, where infection intensities were highest, suggesting that clams can tolerate infections up to a lethal threshold. Collectively these data support the hypothesis that high NIX intensities are associated with host mortality. NIX-associated mortality appears to be more pronounced at Kalaloch Beach relative to other Washington beaches.

Novel diagnostic tests for the putative agent of bacterial gill disease in Pacific razor clams (Siliqua patula).

Nuclear inclusion X (NIX) is a gamma proteobacteria that infects the nuclei of gill epithelial cells in Pacific razor clams. NIX has been associated with clam die-offs in coastal Washington. A quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay was developed to detect NIX in Pacific razor clams, and assay specificity was confirmed by chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH). Both tests were applied to evaluate NIX infections in wild Pacific razor clams collected during spring 2019. Consistent with results from earlier histopathological assessments, qPCR and CISH indicated 100% prevalence in razor clams from two Washington beaches and 0% prevalence from two Alaskan beaches.

Differential susceptibility of Yukon River and Salish Sea stocks of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to ichthyophoniasis.

Preliminary evidence suggests that Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Yukon River may be more susceptible to Ichthyophonus sp. infections than Chinook from stocks further south. To investigate this hypothesis in a controlled environment, we experimentally challenged juvenile Chinook from the Yukon River and from the Salish Sea with Ichthyophonus sp. and evaluated mortality, infection prevalence and infection load over time. We found that juvenile Chinook salmon from a Yukon River stock were more susceptible to ichthyophoniasis than were those from a Salish Sea stock. After feeding with tissues from infected Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, Chinook salmon from both stocks became infected. The infection was persistent and progressive in Yukon River stock fish, where infections sometimes progressed to mortality, and histological examinations revealed parasite dissemination and proliferation throughout the host tissues. In Salish Sea-origin fish, however, infections were largely transient; host mortalities were rare, and parasite stages were largely cleared from most tissues after 3-4 wk. Susceptibility differences were evidenced by greater cumulative mortality, infection prevalence, parasite density, proportion of fish demonstrating a cellular response, and intensity of the cellular response among fish from the Yukon River stock. These observed differences between Chinook salmon stocks were consistent when parasite exposures occurred in both freshwater and seawater. These results support the hypothesis that a longer-standing host-pathogen relationship, resulting in decreased disease susceptibility, exists among Salish Sea Chinook salmon than among Yukon River conspecifics.

Modelling sea lice control by lumpfish on Atlantic salmon farms: interactions with mate limitation, temperature and treatment rules.

Atlantic salmon farming is one of the largest aquaculture sectors in the world. A major impact on farm economics, fish welfare and, potentially, nearby wild salmonid populations, is the sea louse ectoparasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis. Sea louse infestations are most often controlled through application of chemicals, but in most farming regions, sea lice have evolved resistance to the small set of available chemicals. Therefore, alternative treatment methodologies are becoming more widely used. One increasingly common alternative treatment involves the co-culture of farmed salmon with cleaner fish, which prey on sea lice. However, despite their wide use, little is understood about the situations in which cleaner fish are most effective. For example, previous work suggests that a low parasite density results in sea lice finding it difficult to acquire mates, reducing fecundity and population growth. Other work suggests that environmental conditions such as temperature and external sea louse pressure have substantial impact on this mate limitation threshold and may even remove the effect entirely. We used an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate cleaner fish on a salmon farm to explore interactions between sea louse mating behaviour, cleaner fish feeding rate, temperature and external sea louse pressure. We found that sea louse mating has a substantial effect on sea louse infestations under a variety of environmental conditions. Our results suggest that cleaner fish can control sea louse infestations most effectively by maintaining the population below critical density thresholds.

Rising Temperatures, Molting Phenology, and Epizootic Shell Disease in the American Lobster.

Phenological mismatch-maladaptive changes in phenology resulting from altered timing of environmental cues-is an increasing concern in many ecological systems, yet its effects on disease are poorly characterized. American lobster (Homarus americanus) is declining at its southern geographic limit. Rising seawater temperatures are associated with seasonal outbreaks of epizootic shell disease (ESD), which peaks in prevalence in the fall. We used a 34-year mark-recapture data set to investigate relationships between temperature, molting phenology, and ESD in Long Island Sound, where temperatures are increasing at 0.4°C per decade. Our analyses support the hypothesis that phenological mismatch is linked to the epidemiology of ESD. Warming spring temperatures are correlated with earlier spring molting. Lobsters lose diseased cuticle by molting, and early molting increases the intermolt period in the summer, when disease prevalence is increasing to a fall peak. In juvenile and adult male lobsters, September ESD prevalence was correlated with early molting, while October ESD prevalence was correlated with summer seawater temperature. This suggests that temperature-induced molting phenology affects the timing of the onset of ESD, but later in the summer this signal is swamped by the stronger signal of summer temperatures, which we hypothesize are associated with an increased rate of new infections. October ESD prevalence was ∼80% in years with hot summers and ∼30% in years with cooler summers. Yearly survival of diseased lobsters is <50% that of healthy lobsters. Thus, population impacts of ESD are expected to increase with increasing seawater temperatures.

Oysters and eelgrass: potential partners in a high pCO2 ocean.

Climate change is affecting the health and physiology of marine organisms and altering species interactions. Ocean acidification (OA) threatens calcifying organisms such as the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas. In contrast, seagrasses, such as the eelgrass Zostera marina, can benefit from the increase in available carbon for photosynthesis found at a lower seawater pH. Seagrasses can remove dissolved inorganic carbon from OA environments, creating local daytime pH refugia. Pacific oysters may improve the health of eelgrass by filtering out pathogens such as Labyrinthula zosterae (LZ), which causes eelgrass wasting disease (EWD). We examined how co-culture of eelgrass ramets and juvenile oysters affected the health and growth of eelgrass and the mass of oysters under different pCO2 exposures. In Phase I, each species was cultured alone or in co-culture at 12°C across ambient, medium, and high pCO2 conditions, (656, 1,158 and 1,606 µatm pCO2 , respectively). Under high pCO2 , eelgrass grew faster and had less severe EWD (contracted in the field prior to the experiment). Co-culture with oysters also reduced the severity of EWD. While the presence of eelgrass decreased daytime pCO2 , this reduction was not substantial enough to ameliorate the negative impact of high pCO2 on oyster mass. In Phase II, eelgrass alone or oysters and eelgrass in co-culture were held at 15°C under ambient and high pCO2 conditions, (488 and 2,013 µatm pCO2 , respectively). Half of the replicates were challenged with cultured LZ. Concentrations of defensive compounds in eelgrass (total phenolics and tannins), were altered by LZ exposure and pCO2 treatments. Greater pathogen loads and increased EWD severity were detected in LZ exposed eelgrass ramets; EWD severity was reduced at high relative to low pCO2 . Oyster presence did not influence pathogen load or EWD severity; high LZ concentrations in experimental treatments may have masked the effect of this treatment. Collectively, these results indicate that, when exposed to natural concentrations of LZ under high pCO2 conditions, eelgrass can benefit from co-culture with oysters. Further experimentation is necessary to quantify how oysters may benefit from co-culture with eelgrass, examine these interactions in the field and quantify context-dependency.

Impact of disease on the survival of three commercially fished species.

Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics of bitter crab disease; striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, that experience chronic dermal and visceral mycobacteriosis; and American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Southern New England stock, that experience chronic epizootic shell disease. All three diseases decreased survival of diseased hosts. Survival of diseased adult male crabs was 1% (0.003-0.022, 95% CI) that of uninfected crabs indicating nearly complete mortality of infected crabs in this life stage. Survival of moderately and severely diseased striped bass (which comprised 15% and 11% of the population, respectively) was 84% (70-100%, 95% CI), and 54% (42-68%, 95% CI) that of healthy striped bass. The disease-adjusted yearly natural mortality rate for striped bass was 0.29, nearly double the previously accepted value, which did not include disease. Survival of moderately and severely diseased lobsters was 30% (15-60%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters and survival of mildly diseased lobsters was 45% (27-75%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters. High disease mortality in ovigerous females may explain the poor recruitment and rapid declines observed in this population. Stock assessments should account for disease-related mortality when resource management options are evaluated.

Plant characteristics associated with widespread variation in eelgrass wasting disease.

Seagrasses are ecosystem engineers of essential marine habitat. Their populations are rapidly declining worldwide. One potential cause of seagrass population declines is wasting disease, which is caused by opportunistic pathogens in the genus Labyrinthula. While infection with these pathogens is common in seagrasses, theory suggests that disease only occurs when environmental stressors cause immunosuppression of the host. Recent evidence suggests that host factors may also contribute to disease caused by opportunistic pathogens. In order to quantify patterns of disease, identify risk factors, and investigate responses to infection, we surveyed shoot density, shoot length, epiphyte load, production of plant defenses (phenols), and wasting disease prevalence in eelgrass Zostera marina across 11 sites in the central Salish Sea (Washington state, USA), a region where both wasting disease and eelgrass declines have been documented. Wasting disease was diagnosed by the presence of necrotic lesions, and Labyrinthula cells were identified with histology. Disease prevalence among sites varied from 6 to 79%. The probability of a shoot being diseased was higher in longer shoots, in patches of higher shoot density, and in shoots with higher levels of biofouling from epiphytes. Phenolic concentration was higher in diseased leaves. We hypothesize that this results from the induction of phenols during infection. Additional research is needed to evaluate whether phenols are an adaptive defense against Labyrinthula infection. The high site-level variation in disease prevalence emphasizes the potential for wasting disease to be causing some of the observed decline in eelgrass beds.

Interactive effects of competition and predator cues on immune responses of leopard frogs at metamorphosis.

Recent hypotheses suggest that immunosuppression, resulting from altered environmental conditions, may contribute to the increased incidence of amphibian disease around the world. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) in amphibian skin are an important innate immune defense against fungal, viral and bacterial pathogens. Their release is tightly coupled with release of the stress hormone noradrenaline (norepinephrine). During metamorphosis, AMPs may constitute the primary immune response in the skin of some species because acquired immune functions are temporarily suppressed in order to prevent autoimmunity against new adult antigens. Suppression of AMPs during this transitional stage may impact disease rates. We exposed leopard frog tadpoles (Lithobates pipiens) to a factorial combination of competitor and caged-predator environments and measured their development, growth and production of hydrophobic skin peptides after metamorphosis. In the absence of predator cues, or if the exposure to predator cues was late in ontogeny, competition caused more than a 250% increase in mass-standardized hydrophobic skin peptides. Predator cues caused a decrease in mass-standardized hydrophobic skin peptides when the exposure was late in ontogeny under low competition, but otherwise had no effect. Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry of the skin peptides showed that they include six AMPs in the brevinin and temporin families and at least three of these peptides are previously uncharacterized. Both of these peptide families have previously been shown to inhibit harmful microbes including Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, the fungal pathogen associated with global amphibian declines. Our study shows that amphibians may be able to adjust their skin peptide defenses in response to stressors that are experienced early in ontogeny and that these effects extend through an important life-history transition.

Host demography influences the prevalence and severity of eelgrass wasting disease.

Many marine pathogens are opportunists, present in the environment, but causing disease only under certain conditions such as immunosuppression due to environmental stress or host factors such as age. In the temperate eelgrass Zostera marina, the opportunistic labyrinthulomycete pathogen Labyrinthula zosterae is present in many populations and occasionally causes severe epidemics of wasting disease; however, risk factors associated with these epidemics are unknown. We conducted both field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine the effect of leaf age (inferred from leaf size) on wasting disease prevalence and severity in Z. marina across sites in the San Juan Archipelago, Washington, USA. We confirmed that lesions observed in the field were caused by active Labyrinthula infections both by identifying the etiologic agent through histology and by performing inoculations with cultures of Labyrinthula spp. isolated from observed lesions. We found that disease prevalence increased at shallower depths and with greater leaf size at all sites, and this effect was more pronounced at declining sites. Experimental inoculations with 2 strains of L. zosterae confirmed an increased susceptibility of older leaves to infection. Overall, this pattern suggests that mature beds and shallow beds of eelgrass may be especially susceptible to outbreaks of wasting disease. The study highlights the importance of considering host and environmental factors when evaluating risk of disease from opportunistic pathogens.

Larval exposure to predator cues alters immune function and response to a fungal pathogen in post-metamorphic wood frogs.

For the past several decades, amphibian populations have been decreasing around the globe at an unprecedented rate. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the fungal pathogen that causes chytridiomycosis in amphibians, is contributing to amphibian declines. Natural and anthropogenic environmental factors are hypothesized to contribute to these declines by reducing the immunocompetence of amphibian hosts, making them more susceptible to infection. Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) produced in the granular glands of a frog's skin are thought to be a key defense against Bd infection. These peptides may be a critical immune defense during metamorphosis because many acquired immune functions are suppressed during this time. To test if stressors alter AMP production and survival of frogs exposed to Bd, we exposed wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) tadpoles to the presence or absence of dragonfly predator cues crossed with a single exposure to three nominal concentrations of the insecticide malathion (0, 10, or 100 parts per billion [ppb]). We then exposed a subset of post-metamorphic frogs to the presence or absence of Bd zoospores and measured frog survival. Although predator cues and malathion had no effect on survival or size at metamorphosis, predator cues increased the time to metamorphosis by 1.5 days and caused a trend of a 20% decrease in hydrophobic skin peptides. Despite this decrease in peptides determined shortly after metamorphosis, previous exposure to predator cues increased survival in both Bd-exposed and unexposed frogs several weeks after metamorphosis. These results suggest that exposing tadpoles to predator cues confers fitness benefits later in life.

Annual Recurrences of Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Epizootics in Age 0 Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii Valenciennes, 1847.

Throughout a 20 year biosurveillance period, viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus was isolated in low titers from only 6/7355 opportunistically sampled adult Pacific herring, reflecting the typical endemic phase of the disease when the virus persists covertly. However, more focused surveillance efforts identified the presence of disease hot spots occurring among juvenile life history stages from certain nearshore habitats. These outbreaks sometimes recurred annually in the same temporal and spatial patterns and were characterized by infection prevalence as high as 96%. Longitudinal sampling indicated that some epizootics were relatively transient, represented by positive samples on a single sampling date, and others were more protracted, with positive samples occurring throughout the first 10 weeks of the juvenile life history phase. These results indicate that viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) epizootics in free-ranging Pacific herring C. pallasii are more common than previously appreciated; however, they are easily overlooked if biosurveillance efforts are not designed around times and locations with high disease potential.

Modeling Pathogen Dispersal in Marine Fish and Shellfish.

In marine ecosystems, oceanographic processes often govern host contacts with infectious agents. Consequently, many approaches developed to quantify pathogen dispersal in terrestrial ecosystems have limited use in the marine context. Recent applications in marine disease modeling demonstrate that physical oceanographic models coupled with biological models of infectious agents can characterize dispersal networks of pathogens in marine ecosystems. Biophysical modeling has been used over the past two decades to model larval dispersion but has only recently been utilized in marine epidemiology. In this review, we describe how biophysical models function and how they can be used to measure connectivity of infectious agents between sites, test hypotheses regarding pathogen dispersal, and quantify patterns of pathogen spread, focusing on fish and shellfish pathogens.

Dermal mycobacteriosis and warming sea surface temperatures are associated with elevated mortality of striped bass in Chesapeake Bay.

Temperature is hypothesized to alter disease dynamics, particularly when species are living at or near their thermal limits. When disease occurs in marine systems, this can go undetected, particularly if the disease is chronic and progresses slowly. As a result, population-level impacts of diseases can be grossly underestimated. Complex migratory patterns, stochasticity in recruitment, and data and knowledge gaps can hinder collection and analysis of data on marine diseases. New tools enabling quantification of disease impacts in marine environments include coupled biogeochemical hydrodynamic models (to hindcast key environmental data), and multievent, multistate mark-recapture (MMSMR) (to quantify the effects of environmental conditions on disease processes and assess population-level impacts). We used MMSMR to quantify disease processes and population impacts in an estuarine population of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in Chesapeake Bay from 2005 to 2013. Our results supported the hypothesis that mycobacteriosis is chronic, progressive, and, frequently, lethal. Yearly disease incidence in fish age three and above was 89%, suggesting that this disease impacts nearly every adult striped bass. Mortality of diseased fish was high, particularly in severe cases, where it approached 80% in typical years. Severely diseased fish also had a 10-fold higher catchability than healthy fish, which could bias estimates of disease prevalence. For both healthy and diseased fish, mortality increased with the modeled average summer sea surface temperature (SST) at the mouth of the Rappahannock River; in warmer summers (average SST ≥ 29°C), a cohort is predicted to experience >90% mortality in 1 year. Regression of disease signs in mildly and moderately diseased fish was <2%. These results suggest that these fish are living at their maximum thermal tolerance and that this is driving increased disease and mortality. Management of this fishery should account for the effects of temperature and disease on impacted populations.

Managing aquatic parasites for reduced drug resistance: lessons from the land.

Atlantic salmon farming is one of the largest aquaculture industries in the world. A major problem in salmon farms is the sea louse ectoparasite Lepeophtheirus salmonis, which can cause stress, secondary infection and sometimes mortality in the salmon host. Sea lice have substantial impacts on farm economics and potentially nearby wild salmonid populations. The most common method of controlling sea louse infestations is application of chemicals. However, most farming regions worldwide have observed resistance to the small set of treatment chemicals that are available. Despite this, there has been little investigation of treatment strategies for managing resistance in aquaculture. In this article, we compare four archetypical treatment strategies inspired by agriculture, where the topic has a rich history of study, and add a fifth strategy common in aquaculture. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate these strategies and their varying applications of chemicals over time and space. We analyse the ABM output to compare how the strategies perform in controlling louse abundance, number of treatments required and levels of resistance in the sea louse population. Our results indicated that among the approaches considered applying chemicals in combination was the most effective over the long term.

The Use of Filter-feeders to Manage Disease in a Changing World.

Rapid environmental change is linked to increases in aquatic disease heightening the need to develop strategies to manage disease. Filter-feeding species are effective biofilters and can naturally mitigate disease risk to humans and wildlife. We review the role of filter-feeders, with an emphasis on bivalves, in altering disease outcomes via augmentation and reduction. Filtration can reduce transmission by removing pathogens from the water column via degradation and release of pathogens in pseudofeces. In other cases, filtration can increase pathogen transmission and disease risk. The effect of filtration on pathogen transmission depends on the selectivity of the filter-feeder, the degree of infectivity by the pathogen, the mechanism(s) of pathogen transmission and the ability of the pathogen to resist degradation. For example, some bacteria and viruses can resist degradation and accumulate within a filter-feeder leading to disease transmission to humans and other wildlife upon ingestion. Since bivalves can concentrate microorganisms, they are also useful as sentinels for the presence of pathogenic microorganisms. While somewhat less studied, other invertebrates, including ascidians and sponges may also provide ecosystem services by altering pathogen transmission. In all scenarios, climate change may affect the potential for filter-feeders to mitigate disease risk. We conclude that an assessment including empirical data and modeling of system-wide impacts should be conducted before selection of filter-feeders to mitigate disease. Such studies should consider physiology of the host and microbe and risk factors for negative impacts including augmentation of other pathogens.

Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature.

Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19 °C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2-3 °C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State.

Lessons from sea louse and salmon epidemiology.

Effective disease management can benefit from mathematical models that identify drivers of epidemiological change and guide decision-making. This is well illustrated in the host-parasite system of sea lice and salmon, which has been modelled extensively due to the economic costs associated with sea louse infections on salmon farms and the conservation concerns associated with sea louse infections on wild salmon. Consequently, a rich modelling literature devoted to sea louse and salmon epidemiology has been developed. We provide a synthesis of the mathematical and statistical models that have been used to study the epidemiology of sea lice and salmon. These studies span both conceptual and tactical models to quantify the effects of infections on host populations and communities, describe and predict patterns of transmission and dispersal, and guide evidence-based management of wild and farmed salmon. As aquaculture production continues to increase, advances made in modelling sea louse and salmon epidemiology should inform the sustainable management of marine resources.

Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections.

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 °C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 °C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.