Global population profile of tropical cyclone exposure from 2002 to 2019.

Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event1-4. Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events5. Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global6 and do not consider population vulnerabilities7. Here we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (less than 5 years old) and towards older people (more than 60 years old) in recent years compared with the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones.

Disease burden among refugees in camps on mainland Greece, 2016-2017: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of baseline health data for evidence-informed decision-making, these data are rarely available for displaced populations. At the height of the European refugee crisis, most of those seeking asylum in Europe were from regions with high prevalences of communicable and non-communicable diseases. To create an epidemiologic profile for refugees in camps on mainland Greece, this study assessed the prevalence of 11 communicable and non-communicable diseases among refugees utilizing Médecins du Monde (MdM) in-camp clinics. METHODS: The proportional morbidity of selected diseases among individuals utilizing MdM services were determined from data collected at refugee camp clinics on mainland Greece from April 2016 - July 2017. Overall and age-specific proportional morbidities were reported. Differences in disease burden among refugees from the largest sending countries - Afghanistan and Syria - were compared using proportional morbidity ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Patterns in results were compared with disease burden estimates in sending countries and with findings from comparable settings. RESULTS: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) were the most prevalent outcome. Among RTIs, upper RTIs were most common, with a proportional morbidity of nearly 40%; throughout the study period, over 46% of children under 18 years had at least one upper RTI consultation. Musculoskeletal conditions (3.64%), were the most prevalent non-communicable outcome, followed by hypertension (2.21%) and asthma (1.28%). Afghans were 31.68% more likely than Syrians to have a consultation for at least one condition (PR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.25, 1.39). The proportional morbidity of RTIs was comparable to sending countries, but there was a comparatively lower burden of other conditions among refugees than literature estimates from sending countries. CONCLUSION: Refugees utilizing MdM clinics in camps had higher burdens of communicable diseases - predominantly RTIs - relative to non-communicable diseases. Non-communicable disease burdens were comparatively lower than reported prevalences from in-country populations. These findings can be attributed to a range of considerations including differences in demographic profiles between sending countries and refugee populations and missed opportunities for utilizing clinical care. Further investment is needed to capture the health profiles of displaced populations to support evidence-informed decision-making processes in humanitarian emergency responses.

Evaluation of Early Warning, Alert and Response System for Ebola Virus Disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020.

The 10th and largest Ebola virus disease epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was declared in North Kivu Province in August 2018 and ended in June 2020. We describe and evaluate an Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) implemented in the Beni health zone of DRC during August 5, 2018-June 30, 2020. During this period, 194,768 alerts were received, of which 30,728 (15.8%) were validated as suspected cases. From these, 801 confirmed and 3 probable cases were detected. EWARS showed an overall good performance: sensitivity and specificity >80%, nearly all (97%) of alerts investigated within 2 hours of notification, and good demographic representativeness. The average cost of the system was US $438/case detected and US $1.8/alert received. The system was stable, despite occasional disruptions caused by political insecurity. Our results demonstrate that EWARS was a cost-effective component of the Ebola surveillance strategy in this setting.

Heatwave-protective knowledge and behaviour among urban populations: a multi-country study in Tunisia, Georgia and Israel.

BACKGROUND: There is an expected increase in heatwaves globally. As such, it is imperative to have sufficient levels of heatwave-protective knowledge and behaviour in areas regularly affected by heatwaves. Our study assessed this among urban populations in Tunisia, Georgia and Israel. METHODS: We undertook a cross-sectional population survey in the three countries. The questionnaire focused on obtaining information on respondents' knowledge level regarding 1) symptoms due to overheating, 2) risk groups for heatwaves, 3) actions to take when someone is overheated, and 4) heatwave-protective measures. Furthermore, we asked respondents about protective measures they applied during the last heatwave. We compared the results between the countries. RESULTS: Heatwave-protective knowledge was highest in Israel, and lowest in Georgia, for all indicators except for heatwave-protective measures, for which knowledge was highest in Tunisia. Most respondents who named certain protective measures had also applied these during the last heatwave: more than 90% for all measures except for one in Tunisia and Israel, and more than 80% for all measures in Georgia. CONCLUSION: There is a need to further improve heatwave-protective knowledge in Tunisia, Georgia and Israel. One potential solution to achieve this is by implementing a National Heat Health Action Plan. Improving knowledge is a vital step before adaptive behaviour can take place.

Governing heatwaves in Europe: comparing health policy and practices to better understand roles, responsibilities and collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The expectation that climate change will further exacerbate extreme weather events such as heatwaves is of primary concern to policymakers and scientists. Effective governance is fundamental to preparedness for and response to such threats. This paper explores the governance structures of European heat health action plans and provides insights into key stakeholders, roles, responsibilities and collaboration. METHODS: This was a two-phase qualitative study, in which we complemented a desk review of 15 European national heat health action plans (NHHAPs) with, after obtaining informed consent, 68 interviews in nine countries with key informants involved in the development, implementation and/or evaluation of these NHHAPs. A thematic analysis was used to analyze the NHHAPs inductively. This analysis focused on three themes: identifying key stakeholders, defining and assigning roles and collaboration among stakeholders. The iteratively created codebook was then applied to the analysis of the key informant interviews. All analyses were done using NVivo 10 qualitative analysis software. RESULTS: The majority of the NHHAPs have governance as one of their main objectives, to support the coordination of actions and collaboration among involved stakeholders. There are, however, significant differences between plan and practice. On the basis of the available data, we have little insight into the process of stakeholder identification, but we do find that most countries involve the same types of stakeholders. Roles are mainly defined and assigned in relation to the alert levels of the warning system, causing other role aspects and other roles to be vague and ambiguous. Collaboration is key to many NHHAP elements and is mainly experienced positively, though improvements and new collaborations are considered. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a need for a more deliberate and structured approach to governance in the context of NHHAPs. A cross-sectoral approach to the identification of key stakeholders can facilitate a broader preparedness and response to heatwaves. Roles and responsibilities of stakeholders should be defined and assigned more clearly to avoid confusion and to improve effective implementation. To this extent, we identify and describe seven key roles and potential stakeholders to which these roles are usually assigned. Finally, also collaboration among stakeholders can benefit from a cross-sectoral approach, but also formal structures can be beneficial.

Challenges in public health and epidemiology research in humanitarian settings: experiences from the field.

BACKGROUND: Humanitarian settings often present unique scientific challenges and conditions that distinguish them from standard research settings. While a number of these challenges are faced in both standard settings and humanitarian settings, factors unique to humanitarian settings such as inaccessibility and time sensitivities further exacerbate the effects of these challenges. This analysis focuses on experiences in post-disaster contexts such as Indonesia and India following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and Nepal following the 2015 earthquake. DISCUSSION: Particular issues that we faced in undertaking research in post-disaster settings include challenges with uncharted ethical and cultural considerations, non-standardised administrative methods for record keeping, data sharing and dissemination. While these issues are not unique to post-disaster humanitarian settings, the time-sensitive nature of our work exacerbated the effects of these concerns. Relying on local partners and making quick decisions to tackle issues is imperative for navigating both foreseen and unforeseen challenges. While pre-emptive action to address these concerns is the most efficient means to expedite research protocols, adaptability and contingency planning are key components of practical research implementation in dynamic situations. CONCLUSIONS: Research is not always a priority in humanitarian settings, so innovative methods are necessary to conduct meaningful and situationally appropriate research in these venues. By understanding available resources, local culture, and political considerations and working efficiently and decisively, we can begin to jump hurdles associated with epidemiologic research in humanitarian settings.

Impact of Recurrent Floods on the Utilization of Maternal and Newborn Healthcare in Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: Floods are one of the most common types of disasters in Bangladesh and lead to direct and indirect impacts on health. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of floods on Maternal and Newborn Healthcare (MNH) utilization in Bangladesh between the years 2011 and 2014. METHODS: We used variables from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2014 data and georeferenced data of floods between 2011 and 2014 from the Emergency Events Database. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine whether the flood-affected exposures were significant in predicting differences in MNH utilization. RESULTS: The odds for the received antenatal care by skilled providers, institutional deliveries, deliveries by c-section, and postnatal care of the babies were significantly lower (Unadjusted OR = 0.81, 0.88, 0.83, and 0.82 respectively; P < 0.05) in the flood-affected area than the non-affected area. Additionally, the odds of postnatal checkup of women was statistically significant (P < 0.001) and less likely to be received in flood-affected area (OR = 0.76). The odds of all indicators were significantly lower (OR < 1) for the women living in the twice and four times flooded areas compared to the once flooded areas. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: The study shows that floods can have a negative impact on MNH utilization. In addition, repeated floods have a worse impact on MNH utilization than incidental floods. Extra effort should be put on ensuring access to MNH of women in flood-affected areas.

Heat and emergency room admissions in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Due to a global warming-related increase in heatwaves, it is important to obtain detailed understanding of the relationship between heat and health. We assessed the relationship between heat and urgent emergency room admissions in the Netherlands. METHODS: We collected daily maximum temperature and relative humidity data over the period 2002-2007. Daily urgent emergency room admissions were divided by sex, age group and disease category. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models, estimating temperature-admission associations. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for urgent hospital admissions for a range of temperatures compared to a baseline temperature of 21 °C. In addition, we compared the impact of three different temperature scenarios on admissions using the RR. RESULTS: There is a positive relationship between increasing temperatures above 21 °C and the RR for urgent emergency room admissions for the disease categories 'Potential heat-related diseases' and 'Respiratory diseases'. This relationship is strongest in the 85+ group. The RRs are strongest for lag 0. For admissions for 'circulatory diseases', there is only a small significant increase of RRs within the 85+ age group for moderate heat, but not for extreme heat. The RRs for a one-day event with extreme heat are comparable to the RRs for multiple-day events with moderate heat. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals should adjust the capacity of their emergency departments on warm days, and the days immediately thereafter. The elderly in particular should be targeted through prevention programmes to reduce harmful effects of heat. The fact that this increase in admissions already occurs in temperatures above 21 °C is different from previous findings in warmer countries. Given the similar impact of three consecutive days of moderate heat and one day of extreme heat on admissions, criteria for activation of national heatwave plans need adjustments based on different temperature scenarios.

Drought, conflict and children's undernutrition in Ethiopia 2000-2013: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of childhood wasting and to investigate the effects of drought and conflict on wasting in crisis-affected areas within Ethiopia. METHODS: We searched the Complex Emergency Database for nutrition surveys carried out in Ethiopia over the period 2000-2013. We extracted data on the prevalence of wasting (weight-for-height z-scores below -2) among children aged 6-59 months for areas of Ethiopia that had sufficient data available. Data on any conflict events (irrespective of magnitude or impact) and episodes of seasonal drought affecting the survey areas were extracted from publicly available data sources. Random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis was used to synthesize the evidence from 231 small-scale surveys. FINDINGS: From the total sample of 175 607 children analysed, the pooled number of children wasted was 21 709. The posterior median prevalence of wasting was 11.0% (95% credible interval, CrI: 10.3-11.7) over the 14-year period. Compared with areas unaffected by drought, the estimated prevalence of wasting was higher in areas affected by moderate levels of drought (posterior odds ratio, OR: 1.34; 95% CrI: 1.05-1.72) but similar in severe drought-affected areas (OR: 0.96; 95% CrI: 0.68-1.35). Although the pooled prevalence of wasting was higher in conflict-affected than unaffected areas, the difference was not plausible (OR: 1.02; 95% CrI: 0.82-1.26). CONCLUSION: Despite an overall declining trend, a wasting problem persists among children in Ethiopia. Conflict events did not have a major impact on childhood wasting. Nutrition interventions should go beyond severe drought-prone areas to incorporate areas where moderate droughts occur.

Barriers to surgical care in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Various barriers exist that preclude individuals from undergoing surgical care in low-income countries. Our study assessed the main barriers in Nepal, and identified individuals most at risk for not receiving required surgical care. METHODS: A countrywide survey, using the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need (SOSAS) survey tool, was carried out in 2014, surveying 2,695 individuals with a response rate of 97%. Our study used data from a subset, namely individuals who required surgical care in the last twelve months. Data were collected on individual characteristics, transport characteristics, and reasons why individuals did not undergo surgical care. RESULTS: Of the 2,695 individuals surveyed, 207 individuals needed surgical care at least once in the previous 12 months. The main reasons for not undergoing surgery were affordability (n = 42), accessibility (n = 42) and fear/no trust (n = 34). A factor significantly associated with affordability was having a low education (OR = 5.77 of having no education vs. having secondary education). Living in a rural area (OR = 2.59) and a long travel time to a secondary and tertiary health facility (OR = 1.17 and 1.09, respectively) were some of the factors significantly associated with accessibility. Being a woman was significantly associated with fear/no trust (OR = 3.54). CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the individuals who needed surgical care did not undergo surgery due to affordability, accessibility, or fear/no trust. Providing subsidised transport, introducing mobile surgical clinics or organising awareness raising campaigns are measures that could be implemented to overcome these barriers to surgical care.

A retrospective analysis of oral cholera vaccine use, disease severity and deaths during an outbreak in South Sudan.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether pre-emptive oral cholera vaccination reduces disease severity and mortality in people who develop cholera disease during an outbreak. METHODS: The study involved a retrospective analysis of demographic and clinical data from 41 cholera treatment facilities in South Sudan on patients who developed cholera disease between 23 April and 20 July 2014 during a large outbreak, a few months after a pre-emptive oral vaccination campaign. Patients who developed severe dehydration were regarded as having a severe cholera infection. Vaccinated and unvaccinated patients were compared and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with developing severe disease or death. FINDINGS: In total, 4115 cholera patients were treated at the 41 facilities: 1946 (47.3%) had severe disease and 62 (1.5%) deaths occurred. Multivariate analysis showed that patients who received two doses of oral cholera vaccine were 4.5-fold less likely to develop severe disease than unvaccinated patients (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.22; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.11-0.44). Moreover, those with severe cholera were significantly more likely to die than those without (aOR: 4.76; 95% CI: 2.33-9.77). CONCLUSION: Pre-emptive vaccination with two doses of oral cholera vaccine was associated with a significant reduction in the likelihood of developing severe cholera disease during an outbreak in South Sudan. Moreover, severe disease was the strongest predictor of death. Two doses of oral cholera vaccine should be used in emergencies to reduce the disease burden.

Factors Associated with Stunting among Pre-school Children in Southern Highlands of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Stunting is a major public health problem in Africa and is associated with poor child survival and development. We investigate factors associated to child stunting in three Tanzanian regions. METHODS: A cross-sectional two-stage cluster sampling survey was conducted among children aged 6-59 months. The sample included 1360 children aged 6-23 months and 1904 children aged 24-59 months. Descriptive statistics and binary and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. RESULTS: Our main results are: in the younger group, stunting was associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.17; confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-3.09), maternal absence (AOR: 1.93; CI: 1.21-3.07) and household diet diversity (AOR: 0.61; CI: 0.41-0.92). Among older children, stunting was associated with male sex (AOR: 1.28; CI: 1.00-1.64), age of 4 and 5 (AOR: 0.71; CI: 0.54-0.95; AOR: 0.60; CI: 0.44-0.83), access to improved water source (AOR: 0.70; CI: 0.52-0.93) and to a functioning water station (AOR: 0.63; CI: 0.40-0.98) and mother breastfeeding (AOR: 1.97; CI: 1.18-3.29). CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that increase household wealth and improve water and sanitation conditions should be implemented to reduce stunting. Family planning activities and programmes supporting mothers during pregnancy and lactation can positively affect both newborns and older siblings.

Monitoring mortality in forced migrants--can Bayesian methods help us to do better with the (little) data we have?

In crisis situations, data are scarce-Peter Heudtlass and colleagues explore ways of best understanding the extra risk of death borne by forced migrants.

Child Health During War and Disasters: Building Resilience.

Children face unique risks resulting from disasters and conflicts. Broadly, complex emergencies create new and augment existing health risks to children. Direct, conflict-related injuries and deaths - such as those resulting from exposure to chemical weapons and blast injuries - not only have immediate impact but also have long-term impacts on the health and wellbeing of children. Lapses in vaccination coverage, changes in vector patterns, and widespread malnutrition, contribute to new and re-emerging infectious diseases among children. Understanding risks resulting from disasters and conflicts is critical for implementing timely and appropriate public health programs to reduce the negative health effects on children.

A retrospective cross-sectional study of risk factors for communicable disease diagnoses among refugees in mainland Greek camps, 2016-2017.

Communicable disease risk is high in refugee camps and reception centers. To better understand the risks for communicable disease diagnoses among refugees and asylum seekers, this study assesses individual- and camp-level risk factors among individuals utilizing Médecins du Monde clinics in four large refugee camps-Elliniko, Malakasa, Koutsochero, and Raidestos-on mainland Greece between July 2016 and May 2017. Descriptive statistics are reported for the demographic characteristics of the study population and for communicable disease burdens within the four camps-Elliniko, Malakasa, Raidestos, and Koutsochero. A hierarchical generalized linear model was used to assess risk factors for communicable disease diagnoses while accounting for individual-level clustering. This study shows marginal patterns in risk factors for communicable disease. Males had marginally higher risk of communicable disease diagnosis than females (OR = 1.12; 95% CI 0.97-1.29), and increased age was more protective against communicable disease for females (OR = 0.957; 95% CI 0.953-0.961) than for males (OR = 0.963; 95% CI 0.959-0.967). Communicable disease risk was significantly different between camps, with Elliniko (OR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.40-1.79) and Malakasa (OR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.25-1.63) having higher odds of communicable disease than Raidestos. The demographic and epidemiologic profiles of displaced populations differ across settings, and epidemiologic baselines for displaced populations are fundamental to evidence-informed provision of humanitarian aid. Further, while influences and risks for negative health outcomes in complex emergencies are broadly, the causal mechanisms that underpin these relationships are not as well understood. Both practitioners and researchers should engage with further research to elucidate the mechanisms through which these risks operate among displaced populations, including multilevel analyses.

Chickenpox Outbreaks in Three Refugee Camps on Mainland Greece, 2016-2017: A Retrospective Study.

INTRODUCTION: Displaced populations face disproportionately high risk of communicable disease outbreaks given the strains of travel, health care circumstances in their country of origin, and limited access to health care in receiving countries. STUDY OBJECTIVE: Understanding the role of demographic characteristics in outbreaks is important for timely and efficient control measures. Accordingly, this study assesses chickenpox outbreaks in three large refugee camps on mainland Greece from 2016 - 2017, using clinical line-list data from Médecins du Monde (MdM) clinics. METHODS: Clinical line-list data from MdM clinics operating in Elliniko, Malakasa, and Raidestos camps in mainland Greece were used to characterize chickenpox outbreaks in these camps. Logistic regression was used to compare the odds of chickenpox by sex, camp, and yearly increase in age. Incidences were calculated for age categories and for sex for each camp outbreak. RESULTS: Across camps, the median age was 19 years (IQR: 7.00 - 30.00 years) for all individuals and five years (IQR: 2.00 - 8.00 years) for cases. Males were 55.94% of the total population and 51.32% of all cases. There were four outbreaks of chickenpox across Elliniko (n = 1), Malakasa (n = 2), and Raidestos (n = 1) camps. The odds of chickenpox when controlling for age and sex was lower for Malakasa (OR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.38 - 0.78) and Raidestos (OR = 0.36; 95% CI, 0.24 - 0.56) when compared Elliniko. Odds of chickenpox were comparable between Malakasa and Raidestos (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 0.92 - 2.42). Across all camps, the highest incidence was among children zero-to-five years of age. The sex-specific incidence chickenpox was higher for males than females in Elliniko and Malakasa, while the incidence was higher among females in Raidestos. CONCLUSION: As expected, individuals five years of age and under made up the majority of chickenpox cases. However, 12% of cases were teenagers or older, highlighting the need to consider atypical age groups in vaccination strategies and control measures. To support both host and displaced populations, it is important to consider risk-reduction needs for both groups. Including host communities in vaccination campaigns and activities can help reduce the population burden of disease for both communities.

Measuring psychological resilience to disasters: are evidence-based indicators an achievable goal?

Despite rising interest on the concept of societal resilience and its measurement, little has been done to provide operational indicators. Importantly, an evidence-based approach to assess the suitability of indicators remains unexplored. Furthermore few approaches that exist do not investigate indicators of psychological resilience, which is emerging as an important component of societal resilience to disasters. Disasters are events which overwhelm local capacities, often producing human losses, injury and damage to the affected communities. As climate hazards and disasters are likely to increase in the coming decades, strengthening the capacity of societies to withstand these shocks and recover quickly is vital. In this review, we search the Web of Knowledge to summarize the evidence on indicators of psychological resilience to disasters and provided a qualitative assessment of six selected studies. We find that an evidence-based approach using features from systematic reviews is useful to compile, select and assess the evidence and elucidate robust indicators. We conclude that strong social support received after a disaster is associated with an increased psychological resilience whereas a female gender is connected with a decrease in the likelihood of a resilient outcome. These results are consistent across disaster settings and cultures and are representative of approximately 13 million disaster-exposed civilians of adult age. An approach such as this that collects and evaluates evidence will allow indicators of resilience to be much more revealing and useful in the future. They will provide a robust basis to prioritize indicators to act upon through intersectoral policies and post-disaster public health interventions.